Nine on the s p 500. The long end of the Treasury Curve outperforming. A flatter curve. The data at 8 30 eastern. Lisa we are looking for jobless claims, as well as continuing claims out of the United States. People are expecting slight improvement in the absolute numbers, but it is not just the numbers. It is the type of job losses, more permanent, less temporary. Didnt get numbers from uber and tripadvisor. I find this interesting after hilton posted a loss this morning. Also this morning, President Trump in ohio speaking about the economy. Interested to hear what he is proposing on infrastructure spending, or looking forward, what can actually stimulate the economy, not just prop it up. Jonathan much more still to come on that. In your equity market this morning, heres the thursday morning price action. Equities lower in the last minutes, off by 0. 3 . Eurodollarrket, 1. 1842. Yields down three on the 10 year to 0. 51 . In the fx market, in emerging record highlar t for the dollar lira. An unbelievable move that you have been on top of the last couple of weeks. Tom it is idiosyncratic, but not politically. Theres all sorts of politics in the levant. But this is a big deal for turkey, and frankly all of europe. Eurolira, im looking at the jump in it. The standard deviation move. We are really not out to the word crisis, but we can say this morning that the lira plunges. Jonathan lets head straight to the capital foreignexchange and check in with kit juckes of stockton of socgen. What are you looking for . Kit im hoping we dont get another uptick in new claims, and even more so another uptick in continuing claims, just because this would be an awfully high level of unemployment. Theres an awfully big hole still to fillin. You had a decent number of the data that has said theres bad news on the virus, but out of lockdown, people carry on. The labor market data has a capacity to put a real dampener on that story. Tom i love your morning note, the acuity of it as you look at all of the granular data, including the claims reported 830. The claims number out at 8 30. On the 10 year yield, what does it say to you, and where is the critical 10 year yield . Kit i guess when it goes negative and joins the rest of the planet. But we are in pretty new. Erritory some of the data has shown resilience with the wider spread around the United States of the pandemic. But theres a continued hunt for safe assets and a continued belief that rates are staying low for just as far as the eye can possibly imagine. It isoesnt look as if going away anytime soon. Look at to yields. They are just accelerating away. I think that market, clearly we bad numbersed of as opposed to braced for strong ones. Lisa what strikes me is the widening divergence in the ability to lower rates and issue more debt, and the lack of that ability by a number of developing markets. Turkey is its own idiosyncratic story, but how representative visit of emergingmarket nations representative is it of emergingmarket nations . Kit we have to be precise about which emerging markets. I think that where weve got ,his year the weakest currency we still have considerable weakness out there for turkish lira, as we do for the brazilian real. Are in muchdonesia the terriblethan three, or the fragile three. Three that are together weakened. But if you are dependent on foreign capital, you do not have the ability for aggressive this corresponds aggressive fiscal response to the pandemic, and you live in danger of what the Global Environment is. Here we are in august. August is historically not a good month for me to go to the world and borrow money, and this is what we see. Jonathan you are worried about the month of august, arent you . Walk us through what youre looking for this month. Kit we put out a bunch of pieces separately at our shop. The rates guys were worried about risk aversion in august. The emergingmarket guys were worried about risk aversion. The currencies that do badly in august to include the turkish lira, the brazilian real, the south african rand. What does well is the dollar, the yen, and gold historically. I dont know if gold can go up from here. You see a pickup in volatility typically, and therefore uncertainty. What you can see today is the fragile emergingmarket widercies can gap incredibly quickly on really no volume at all. Tom i think this is brilliant. It is great to go around the world. , is Jerome Powell a central banker to the world . Theres a point here where the central bank has to say, ok, the market is finally testing. Is that a point for zero . Is any point to zero . Or is it really they will wait for a negative statistic . Kit i think they have very little choice. The fed has made it clear they are either adding more money or they will wait for inflation to come up. They know the Downside Risk of the economy is still there. Is staying easy. They are there to protect the markets. They came in and delivered massively accommodative policy globally with all of the moves they did on the treasury repo and on the swat program. Hugely positive in turning around sentiment. That is weakening the dollar, but it has weakened the dollar more against emergingmarket currencies against developing market currencies than against these fragile ones. Tom surveillance with you this morning. Marcus are on the move before the claims data, which we see here in an hour and 20 minutes. Francine lacquas interview with governor bailey scheduled for the top of the 8 00 hours well. The markets are on the move, but the dollar shows persistent resilience, even within a weak dollar regime. Can socgen call weak dollar . Kit once it comes down. At the moment, the dollar is still slightly stronger than it was at the start of the year in tradeweighted terms. It will weaken, but i dont know if it can we can if it can until we can stabilize these emergingmarket currencies. The fed has done its job making sure that theres no yield available at all in the United States. The nasdaq has done its job to get equity prices so high, i am not sure if people have the stomach to keep on chasing. This is where the pandemic hurts. Can we make the rest of the world attractive to sell the dollar into buying without getting a vaccine or some kind of solution for the virus . Jonathan that is the key question. Before we let you go, positive or negative print in payrolls tomorrow . Kit i hope positive. Jonathan the fact that it took a while to into that question speaks to how uncertain tomorrow is. Great to catch up with you, sir. Kit juckes of socgen. That is the issue, the unprintable nature of the payroll report 24 hours away. Tom it is always unprintable. We got to it is always unpredictable. We have got to really make this clear. But the band is not here. It is here. On radio, my arms are way out. It is enormous uncertainty into tomorrow. Jonathan looking forward to Francine Lacquas interview with bank of england governor Andrew Bailey. They just seem to want to flirt with the negative Interest Rates and retain the option to do something in the future. I dont think they are anywhere close to instituting negative Interest Rates. Tom but my point is the market makes you close. Jonathan possibly, yes. And there was a whole sheet in the Monetary Policy report dedicated to walking us through negative Interest Rates, the effective lower bound, and what it could mean for the back of england. When you put Something Like that out, it speaks to the idea that they are nowhere near doing this. Much more to come on that part much more to come on this program. From new york city this morning, good morning. Heres the price action. Futures are negative, down seven, off by 0. 2 . Across asset worldwide, we shape up as follows. In the last 20 minutes, futures gapped a little bit lower and a bid came into the bond market. 0. 52 , to round that up for you. Eurodollar, 1. 1836. As we count you down this thursday morning to jobless claims in america, from new york city, this is bloomberg. With the first word news, im ritika gupta. Democrats are demanding more republican concessions for a deal on a stimulus package. Senate democratic leader Chuck Schumer says there has been some forward momentum, but hes calling on the white house to do more. White house chief of staff mark meadows says if the two sides cant agree, President Trump may take executive action to extend Unemployment Benefits and the moratorium on evictions. Aitter and facebook blocked video shared by accounts linked to President Trump. Violated the video policies on coronavirus misinformation. The president said that children were virtually immune from the coronavirus. Secretary of state mike pompeo is signaling that u. S. Efforts to banish Chinese Technology will extend beyond tiktok. Pompeo urged companies to bar chinese applications from their app stores. There are fears of a food shortage in lebanon. The massive explosion in beirut destroyed major grain silos, creating a crisis in a country that imports nearly all of its food. It comes at a time where lebanon is suffering its worst economic crisis in decades. The government is trying to get a bailout from the International Monetary fund. The richest person in the world has turned a bit of his stock into cash. Jeff bezos sold one million shares of amazon for more than 3. 1 billion, a fraction of the amount is holdings have increased this year. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. If we dont get some kind of deal which offers some Additional Support to the millions of americans currently unemployed, then the economic bounceback is going to be severely compromised. Jonathan that is why the next fiscal steps in washington, d. C. Are so important. Paul donovan there of ubs wealth management. Good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres your price action this thursday morning. Equity futures lower by six, down 0. 2 . In the bond market, yields down by three basis points to 0. 51 . Tom keene working his magic in getting that fourth decimal point. Well done, tom. Tom its fun. This is the way the street looks at it, folks. Jonathan you explain can you expand to our listeners what they are missing out on . Tom years and years ago, it was a reach to go to three, but the street, particularly with the new low rate regime, constantly quotes four decimal points. Jonathan tom keene has been complaining about this for the last 10 years. Tom these are roman numerals. We like to go cross asset, and also in detail. Right now, we go to kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. The silence in washington last night was the president s list of approved debate moderators. Im fascinated by the president s demand, and frankly intelligent demand, should we have a debate before the mailin voting begins . That makes a lot of sense to me. How should the democrats respond . Early in terms of the voting in mailin voting, that is precisely the argument that the president s Reelection Campaign is making. Anywaye encouraging possible for there to be an additional debate, particularly one in the month of september. The Biden Campaign has been hesitant to even engage in this. They have consistently said that they have agreed to the debates that they had previously agreed lady that had our that had already been scheduled. I do think as the mailin voting issue becomes more and more important, there is going to be a broader conversation about an additional debate. Tom lets go to the stimulus right now. I am just going to give you an open question. It is thursday. What happens today . Kevin i was struck by the last seven to last 72 hours, hearing that they were trending in a more positive direction. Democrats feel they have made some type of concession in saying that they would be reducing the allocations for the u. S. Postal service. They have said they were willing to back off. Where they have dug in is for state and local governments. Meanwhile, the president saying he would be willing to have 400, reduced from the 600, of Unemployment Benefits through mid december. Hes offering a shortterm extension, but an extension that Speaker Pelosi says is not enough. She wants to see this go well into the next calendar year. But at the end of the day, when i talked to republicans, they say that with the president and secretary mnuchin are offering to pelosi is not just from a political matter, but from a practical one. This is really where republicans are right now. The far flank of the party is saying they would not be able to get on board with anything more large in terms of money allocation. Jonathan this is a selfimposed headline to get this done tomorrow. Arguably, its already a week too late. The deadline is gone. What they face is the embarrassment of going home this weekend without a deal, and what we can see is a huge spread between what the white house is offering on state aid and what the democrats would like, something closer to 1 trillion. How do you close a spread that wide and 24 hours . Kevin that is really what has been frustrating from both ades perspective, but from reporting perspective, they have really not been very forthcoming , either side, about specifically where that spread you just mentioned is going to go. We dont know specifically how, from a transparency model, but model of where these funds would go. You look at the last round of stimulus, and there were frustrations about which companies had access to this capital, businesses that were wellconnected. You look at that from a transparency perspective, and now you suddenly say, is close to 1 trillion more. Theres a lot of questions about it. Lisa to the extent that there is any actual deadline, if President Trump says he is going to put out an executive order tomorrow if there is not a deal reached, how concrete is that . Kevin from a policy matter, that extension of 400 through mid december would be something that would impact a large portion of the americans who have had to file for unemployment during this time. But from a political matter, it also allows him to say that he is a political outsider that was able to bypass congress and congresss inaction. From the Biden Campaign perspective, they would argue that this is too little, too late. From an economic matter purely, we got some indications from the white house earlier this week that they were signaling there might be some positive Economic Indicators coming by the weekend , but coupled with the notion that he would also sign aecutive orders, that sets up day in which the president would be able to say, look at the direction of the economy, and be satisfied with the recovery. Jonathan just incredibly frustrating to fall into the trap of using the language that politicians are pushing on us over the last. This word deadline, the deadline for the economy passed a week ago. This is the deadline for them to go home and say we got a deal, we didnt get a deal. Tom weve got to go back to civics, fifth grade. To the point of the executive , iers, Speaker Pelosi believe, said the legislature has the power of the purse. How do you do an executive order without the power of the purse . Kevin he is going to be citing dire need and the urgency in order to extend this. Quite frankly, from a legal perspective, they are also toentially daring someone file against them for on employment benefits. Which democrat would say i am going to take you to court over Unemployment Benefits right now in the supreme court, and that millions of americans wouldnt be able to get there and implement benefits . There Unemployment Benefits . The thinking would be they would get some kind of deal by the time it ends up in the judicial system, which seems like a long shot. From that matter, they are looking at this as an economic calamity that needs immediate relief and urgency. With a lack of urgency with seen in the past week. Jonathan there has been some money already appropriated by congress in the last bill, and what we got to work out is how much is left. I think that is what the president is leading to. They can access that cash and deploy at the way he would like. Tom this is what you and i have done for years at bloomberg surveillance. It is the basic idea that the Economic Data matters. We are going to see that at 8 30. Jonathan and we will see it again tomorrow morning. Coming up, lindsey piegza, stifel chief economist. This is bloomberg. Jonathan jobless claims 60 minutes away in the United States of america. From new york, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres your price action one hour away from that data. Equity futures come in just 0. 2 . G10 over the last month doing nicely against the u. S. Dollar, with the exception of emergingmarket europe. Everything else, including the lira and the south african rand, not doing nicely. We had record weakness on the turkish lira a little earlier on. We back away from those levels this hour. This is a set up ahead of the data. 0. 52 is your yield. We come down two or three basis points. Alltime lows on the u. S. Tenyear back in march, intraday record low around 31 basis points. Directed closing low earlier this week just north of 50 basis points, and we are just of those levels now. Tom we just had a little relief on what has been a very difficult hour for the bond 0. 5199 on the 10 year yield. A little later on, Francine Lacqua conversation with governor Andrew Bailey. Lindsey piegza with us of stifel, their chief economist. There are three claims statistics, the weekly number, the moving average of that same number, and then continuing claims get which will you look at h