Australia. You are watching President Trump giving a press conference saying he is looking at a term limited payroll tax suspension. We have seen democrats and republicans oppose any action on the payroll tax, but the president is saying he is exploring additional executive actions and relief. He says he cannot go along with what he calls bailout money for the states. We have seen the states try to get some sort of relief. President trump says the goal is to protect Vulnerable People and avoid stringent lockdowns. He is headed to ohio tomorrow. He says that no states have s sn outbreaks or get worse since tuesday. We have seen some encouraging vaccine news. U. S. Futures at the moment are looking flat. We will see how things are just shaping up for the asian market. Our reporter is in hong kong with the latest. Futures are mixed and mostly flat. Plenty is happening this thursday with earnings galore. Later today, the r. B. I. Is in focus. Bank will pause after cutting this year to shore up a slowing economy. Lets get a snapshot of gold. Continued gains for the precious metal above 2000 are flashing overbought signals. B of a is sticking to the call for 3000 per ounce in 18 months. Investors could potentially shift. The greenback caps a seventh day losses while the you want you on trading at a five day high. Beyond that could open up a path to the 2020 high. A says that could form and openly suggest the pair is going low as 650. Even as stocks continue to hit milestones, there are warnings that this is not a buy and hold environment. I want to put up one of the many might cause doubt over the rally we are seeing. This chart is near multiyear highs. Is this inevitable . I am curious about your strategy of pulling back whenever you see a 3 10 gain in a stock. How is it working out for you . It has worked out well. There is an incredible individual position of volatility. Its not a i and hold environment. Someink about renting securities during earnings season especially as we are getting positive headlines whether it is we are near a virus vaccine or there might be stimulus. Economy is stalling while the markets are increasing. Does that strategy work for tech . You see these eye watering valuations. To thetraditional traditional metrics still apply . It does. It is a proprietary framework that we used it looks at price volume volatility and it works not only on broad tech indexes here in the u. S. And individual names but also Technology Names and europe and asia. You can look at individuals and say we might have a fundamental real on something. There are still signals of when it is overbought or oversold as we have been able to do that for positions not just here in the u. S. But also abroad in the Tech Services area. Gold is one of the most overbought levels in a decade. Words searches with the by gold are the highest since 2011. How do you trade around your gold position . It seems that everybody likes metal right now. There are two things you look at. You look at do you want to own it or not . For months come the answer was yes there are levels at which it is overbought. I can say that we bought various gold miners because it was at a massive overbought investment framework. Average of the investor, someone listening to the program, what they do is you have to say it is going to be its atup and you think alltime highs, its probably not the day to fight. This is the type of thing that what is the price i am paying for it, what am i expected to get out of it . Is it Risk Management . So it keeps me afloat . Is it a big correction for mi looking to hit the target in the next year . Those are two very different scenarios. The mostfrom one of overbought to oversold, we are talking about the u. S. Dollar which is now at the most oversold level from almost a decade. We have right President Trump talking about the stimulus talks. We have run out of the Unemployment Benefits for the additional enhanced unemployment insurance. Now that you have a weak dollar which raises the cost of living for people here, how are you trading that idea that people will be running out of money because of consumption in the markets . We see the fed as losing control of the curve over time. The inflation is increasing and our currency is being devalued that has been happening this year. We do trade around that as well and also connect that to gold. What you have seen with the fed is that they were able to fix floor on highyield and junk bonds but they didnt fix the economy. Assetd, they fixed prices. You have to say why does that matter in terms of your question . The devaluation of the dyer is fixing at a higher cost of living and the people who cannot afford it the least at a time when they have lost their jobs. Benefitingors are from the depreciated dollar which might translate into appreciation for the yen and the euro but that has implications like you just talked about as higher gold prices or emerging markets doing better are often the contrary reflection of that dollar movement. Cliques always great having you with us. Thank you. Still ahead, the national memberant associations joining us to talk about the impact on the industry. First, we talk to dr. Anthony fauci on the effectiveness of a vaccine and more. This is bloomberg. You are watching daybreak australia. The pentagon is contradicting the white house over the massive explosion in beirut. President trump said it appeared to be a bomb but mark esper says it might be an accident. More than 100 people died in the blast. The Ammonium Nitrate was seized from a cargo ship years ago. The u. S. Government is pushing debt to new extremes to cope with the budget deficit not seen since the country mobilized from world war ii the treasury is expanding plans for borrowing in the coming months aiming to sell a record 112 billion of securities next week. The sale exceeds most expectations but wall streets appetite seems strong and the fed will take 80 billion per month. The Trump Administration is warning there will be no deal on a virus relief plan if a stimulus package isnt hammered out by the end of this week. Democrats and republicans say they continue to make progress. Other Officials Say it will come to nothing if an agreement doesnt come in the next couple of days. Some republicans put the chance of that happening at 5050. Gainsmarket data says slowed last month. In junellion job gains were followed by a gain of 167,000 in july. That number trails all estimates. A slowdown would be in line with other data that shows the labor market is in danger of regressing. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. The u. S. Governments top Infectious Disease expert, anthony fauci, says a vaccine of 50 effectiveness could still help if combined with Public Health measures. He also told david westin there is no vaccine developer that is ahead when it comes to confirming the effectiveness of the drug. And truly putting it behind us. Of virusesal history particularly respiratory viruses such that they are such that if they are going to be as capable as this to virus is from spreading cumin to humans, ultimately if you want to put the nail in the coffin of an outbreak, you need a vaccine. However, there are many things that we can do from a Public Health standpoint that can more adequately control this globally and domestically. They are not particularly complicated things. They are things we keep talking about. Five or six fundamental principles. Things like Wearing Masks universally. Indoor and outdoor. Keeping six feet distance. Avoiding crowded places. Outdoors is always better than indoors. A clearcut fundamental awareness of the need to wash hands is frequently as you possibly can and stay away from places like bars where you congregate and crowded places. If we universally do that and one of the problems we have in this country is that the understanding of the seriousness of this as a pandemic varies depending upon what Demographic Group you are in because i have never seen an infection like this where it goes from 40 of the people who have no symptoms at all very heavily weighted toward young people who do quite well. Have minorwho symptoms, moderate symptoms, severe symptoms, hospitalization intensive care and death. What if we get a vaccine that is 50 effective or only for a few months . Then what do we do . Lets talk about the percent effectiveness or efficacy then durability. They are separate. A 50, i hope its going to be more than 70 . 60 , that is 50 or efficacy is totally value added if you complement it with Public Health measures. To give you an example historically, if you look at measles, measles is an amazing vaccine. It is 97 90 8 effective. The only thing you need to do with measles is vaccinate people. The high degree of efficacy which gives it an amazing degree of herd immunity to the population whereas when you have a vaccine for a disease in which you can do Public Health measures to mitigate against the spread, you put those two things together and i would love to have an 80 or 90 effective. If we get to percent or 60 effective, i will feel good about that. With regard to durability, that is a different story. If you get a vaccine, you will at least have a months of protection to get you through a season. If it turns out that you get more than that, all the better. If it turns out you need to boost someone, that is ok also. We can give a booster shot the way we give booster shots for other vaccines. As a practical matter, who is ahead in the race or a vaccine . Mean. Depends on what you temporarily or efficacy . There is no one ahead efficacy because the proof in the pudding is that you need to do the large phase three Clinical Trial to determine efficacy and to confirm safety. That was dr. Anthony fauci. While companies are raising to come up with a vaccine, many are in line to get the drug out first once it comes out. Ahnson johnson has forged 1 billion path to supply a drug. There are so many points of interest from that interview with dr. Fauci. The end of the day, the points that david raises we dont know when we will get a vaccine or how effective it will be or the supply. You have governments around the world in a race to secure supply even before we know any of the details. You are absolute right. It is interesting because we are starting to see our low points and high points. Johnson johnson today with the news that they sold 100 million doses to the u. S. That puts it at about 10 per dose. Dose vaccine which is 20 per person. Showed, we dont know if youre going to need that every year or every six months or every five years. On the flipside, Madonna Moderna doesnt have a deal. About or they had hundred Million Dollars in commitments already and they are working to come up with other things. Their price is already two dollars30 seven dollars per dose. Thats about four times what Johnson Johnson is doing. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Again, its the context of not knowing if any of them works. Lets talk about safety because we heard from the who wording caution from the wash and russian vaccine trial. That thetant is it safety doesnt get compromised and are we seeing signs that could happen . What we are hearing they are doing in russia is there going to start largescale vaccinations in october. Remember, we dont have any midsize trial results yet in the west so that we would know if any of these are safe. We have seen with vaccines in the past that if it doesnt work, you could make people more susceptible to the disease and they could end up having a more severe course of infection if they get it. If there is a safety issue. The idea that russia might start vaccinating their populace on a large scale without those studies is very concerning and thats what the w ho is talking about saying please make sure you have done the safety work first before you start to put your people at risk. That was our health care reporter. Coming up, we will have more on vaccines and armor, it has been a ride for vaccines this week. This is been buried. This is bloomberg. Health Care Companies were front and center in the last round of earnings including moderna which is in the first trials of its vaccine. Quarter beat the highest estimates out there. Cost per share of . 31. It beat the expectation of . 33 per share loss. Also see coming down just a little bit. It did say it would be pricing is covid19 vaccine below value. If you look at the yeartodate chart, you can see the fact that it is in the leading position in developing a vaccine has its shares up almost 3 higher yeartodate. Announce 400 million 400 million and supply of several countries. At announced a phase three trial saying it is on track to complete enrollment in september. It is competing with pfizer which has a similar trial out there. Complete withto participants is likely to put it on the path to success perhaps. Any company that is out there in the front on the vaccine level is having its stock flight. Lets look at shares of novavax. Jumped to nearly eight fiveyear high. Saying the latest news they have on their vaccine efforts make them best in class. The stock was up recovering from a decline after hours yesterday was down as much is 21 on an erroneous report that some participants had been hospitalized. It was clarified that was not correct. Stock up close to 4000 year to date. These vaccine related companies are on a tear. Other health Care Companies also posting results. What are you watching . Atmetlife, lets take a look how they performed after hours. The Second Quarter profit declined 96 . That had a lot to do with their investment declines. Their profits declined 29 in both the u. S. And asia businesses. If you look at how the Health Care Related stocks performed in the regular session, you will see metlife was up ahead of its results. Cvs also in the spotlight. It is holding firm. Its midpoint beat estimates. Beat analyst expectations. That has a lot to do with a boost from emerging drugs. Lets look at a busy earnings day ahead in asia. See. A, nintendo, hmi they will be squarely and focus. We will be breaking down those numbers as soon as they get to us. Be speaking to an analyst about those results later on. In the meantime, lets get the business flash headlines. Instagram is launching a clone of tictoc just days after Mark Zuckerberg defended facebooks copycat strategy. Edit short video clips just like tiktok. Tencent is said to be in talks to merge chinas stop top streaming platform. We are told it is discussing our merger. It owns about 38 of each company. Create a streaming giant with 300 million users and a combined market value of 10 billion. Coming up, mike pompeo is pushing for American Companies to drop chinese apps, tech, and cloud services. We will have the latest. This is bloomberg. You are watching daybreak australia. Deaths have top 700,000. The u. S. Remains in focus. California had its second deadliest day. New york city is setting up checkpoints. Tensions continue between the white house and medical experts. Dr. Anthony fauci says u. S. Testing must improve. President trump insists our procedures are the best anywhere. Cases in australia are edging closer to 20,000 with 247 people having died. The state of victoria it reported a Record Number of infections this week. That number is expected to rise in the coming days. Daily cases are seen rising above a thousand later this month. Melbourne has been in lockdown for four weeks. Indonesia was spent heavily in the coming months to support a fragile recovery after their economies first contraction in more than two decades. Saysinance minister outlays will top 100 billion through december as the government seeks to support growth. The economy contracted more than 5 in the Second Quarter. Its worst performance since 1999. The two contenders for the u. S. Facetoface miss conventions. President trump is to give his nomination acceptance from the white house. Banningl violate laws political gatherings in public buildings. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Mike pompeo is urging u. S. Companies to abandon chinese apps signaling that washingtons efforts to block mainland tech in the name of National Security will extend well beyond the campaign against tiktok. Chinese apps see removed from app stores. President trump has mentioned impending action on top for good reason. Companies in china, apps like tiktok are a threat to american citizens not to mention censor speech. Y are anxious to find out what those entrusted apps are. How will they be persuaded to drop the apps . I just put that question to the undersecretary of affairs moments ago. I said what is the review process . When it comes to trade issues, they utilize section 232 for tariffs and the like citing National Security. A behind the scene strategy of agencies looking behind these Companies Looking into these companies. He also pointed to india having to ban 70 plus apps as a result of indias National Security concerns. It was all a part of mike pompeos announcement earlier today of the Clean Initiative that extends beyond Apps Services and providers including itunes but also into Cloud Computing and 5g technology. We have talked a lot about the dynamic between the United States and europe and other western allies. Particularly moving away from the likes of huawei. Department,state are they confident that europe would follow suit in the United States lead . The answer was they do feel confident. They are looking at recent decisions from the u. K. And germany and elsewhere as moves in the right direction though not moves at the speed they would like. Into the countdown to november, are we expecting that the u. S. China relations or tensions will deteriorate as part of the Campaign Playbook . I was shocked by a number from dow jones yesterday which noted that the president s economic advisers are still scheduling for a meeting with china counterparts to enact and look at the phase one trade deal. If you look at the month of september, september 15 is the deadline for the administration headset for microsoft and tiktok. Beyond that, i am told by sources on capitol hill that a series of proposals could be unveiled from a group of democrats and republicans on Common Ground that the United States feels needs to shift from policymakers and how it handles with china. To answer your question, absolutely yes. The relationship between the u. S. And china is changing significantly. The president has tried to make china an issue in his reelection biden is alsooe saying he would work to restore western allies in order to have a broader coalition to go against beijing on an economic front. It is the rare issue of bipartisanship and the shift in partisan politics that both democrats and republicans agree on. Upwe are going to buckle beyond november. Coming up next, the coronavirus has taken a toll on the food and beverage industry. National Restaurant Association tells us what kind of damage they are seeing. This is bill burck. This is bloomberg. White house negotiators say they are no closer to agreeing on the size and scope of the latest stimulus package. President trump is taking his own steps on this front. Our editor is here. What do we need to know about the latest talks in washington . It is not surprising, it is another day of stalemate and impasse. Another day of democrats and republicans getting no closer to agreement. They seem further apart. It is topped off by President Trump saying things he has been saying the last few days, he is looking at things he can do to get stimulus moving ahead. He is looking at a term limited payroll tax suspension. We know a payroll tax holiday is neither popular with republicans nor democrats. If you look at why they cant agree, some of the big issues, President Trump says he cannot go along with bailout money for states. The democrats say we have to have this. States are having such huge costs from the pandemic, they will have to lay off workers in the hundreds of thousands or millions. That is going to make the whole turndown worse. I think he has illustrated why they are still so far apart. Mark meadows saying just now that democrats and republicans are trillions of dollars apart. A long way from striking any kind of deal. Chuck schumer said he sees forward momentum. The white house has to go much further on many issues. Republicansell says are willing to talk, but we are not going to make anymore compromises. He made it clear the senate is going to be in session next week. They were supposed to go on recess as of friday, so they will keep working on this. They cant do anything if the treasury is moving ahead to set records on selling new debt. The announcement came out today, they are going to be selling 112 billion worth of bonds, breaking the 96 billion record set in the Second Quarter. Aey are also going to shift sale of longerterm bonds. Again, that is bigger than forecast but the fed is still buying a lot of bonds that will help keep the appetite for the paper healthy. We are also getting the latest lines from Mitch Mcconnell talking about the stimulus in an interview saying he hopes there is a stimulus deal by the end of the week but that there are 1520 republican senators that see the debt is too high and that could impact the vote. Lets talk about the numbers we got today. The job number tells us we need the extra boost. Is interesting. Im glad you brought up what Mitch Mcconnell said. This is a big theme for republicans. Republicans against democrats, it is republicans arguing with each other about what needs to be done and what can be done. The budget deficit is approaching 100 of gdp. The only time it was higher was during world war ii. Those are the kind of numbers they are focused on. How can you ignore a number like the adp tally private jobs . It was 4. 3 million in june. After 3 million in may and a decline the month before. Only 167,000. P is the job market and the gains stalling out . Speaking of wanting more stimulus, fed officials said they see a rebound in the second half but they want more fiscal relief. We have talked to so many fed officials who say exactly the same thing. Our Global Economy editor. Breaking news, we are getting the latest numbers for Second Quarter. At one andcoming in a quarter billion singapore dollars. The Second Quarter net interest coming in at 2. 3 billion dollars singapore. The Wealth Management business has supported the business. The focus was on what happens to nonperforming loans and their allowances for credit and other losses. When it comes to their nonperforming loans ratio for the Second Quarter and the first half, that came in at one and a half percent. Given the pandemic, we expected those allowances for credit and other losses to hit the overall numbers and that is coming in at 849 million singapore dollars. Talking about the pandemic impact, it has hit the food industry. There is a faint hope of recovery as the u. S. Is slowly reopening. Many restaurants are being allowed to open up Outdoor Dining. Theing us is the ceo of National Restaurant service organization. Thank you so much for joining us today. Impact what has been the for sales and restaurant businesses during the pandemic and what is the outlook for the rest of the year . Thank you for having me. It is been a very rough start to the year with the pandemic. Through june, we already note there has been about 145 billion impact revenue lost to the industry. On top of that, nearly 8 million jobs were lost in the height of the pandemic. That is about half of the total jobs in the industry. We are projecting that that number could end up around 240 billion for the year. That is given the estimates we have today with the openings that are happening already. Negotiations continue on capitol hill on the next round of stimulus measures. We have not seen any sort of consensus. We have the senate bill and house bill that are two different things. How much relief have you gotten from the measures put forth so far and what do you expect to see in the next round . Pppith the original program, there were challenges for restaurants. The Industry Team together with government and together the flexibility act which helped grateful rightly. Andreated extra timeframe flexibility for restaurants to participate. That was the first step in the process. We have asked for a lot more. Not so much because we are trying to help the industry make any. We are trying to help us survive. There is a dedicated bill reference in this Summit Senate that is focused on a 120 billion dollar package for the industry. We are also focused on the second round of ppp. There are good parts and we are excited about what that could be, but there are also some challenges. We have been asking for the senate to revisit the grocery limit. The gross receipts limit. 50 of restaurants wouldnt be able to qualify if it kept at that rate. This is a lowmargin industry. About . 95 of every dollar goes back into the economy whether it is paying wages, paying for food, things like taxes and rent. It is important we continue to hopefulress and we are that specific funding for the industry or the new ppp round would be helpful for the industry. Looking at new data out of new york city suggesting that one third of the Small Businesses in the city may be closed forever. Not to return post pandemic. What are the numbers you are looking at in terms of the down view of the industry after all of this blows over . We have already seen a 25000icant impact between and 30,000 restaurants are closed permanently. Over time, it could be much higher. We need to get to this next round and see what happens. The season has been, it will play big into that. The ability for restaurants to operate delivery and take out as well as Outdoor Dining has been a boost during the summer timeframe. What happens Going Forward will be key to the longterm results. How much permanent change do you see in the way the industry will have for the way they do business . With a delayed vaccine or a vaccine that is only seasonal or partially effective, we are looking at perhaps a new reality where restaurants will have to take into account social distancing and hygiene requirements on a more permanent basis. The great thing about this industry is, it is very entrepreneurial from the getgo. It is always looking to adapt and be flexible. We have demonstrated that throughout the entire pandemic. Whether it was the increased takeout and delivery or looking at new ways of driving revenue, looking at things like cocktails to go or leveraging technology to do contactless menus etc. Going forward, we will see continued innovation driving change in the industry. The industry will flex and find ways to be successful if we can get through this important timeframe. The change in the climate over the next couple of months will have a big impact. We have had great support from many municipalities. Great examples of industry working together to create more Outdoor Dining. We need to get the inside of these restaurants open. We need to increase capacity. When he to make sure that guests feel safe going into this environment. That is an area where this industry has a history of doing a lot of things around food safety and cleanliness to help those guests feel comfortable going in and dining comfortably. Please expand on those measures the association is trying to take when it comes to safety. We have seen the resurgence in other parts of the world especially in asia stemming from a lot of times from these restaurants being crowded from bars from people socializing in that environment. Industry with a long history of food safety and we have been regulated from that perspective. We work closely with the fda and cdc to create reopening guidelines. Those guidelines are very specific and they talk about increased sanitation, social distancing, and pe. Ppe. That is just for the Restaurant Operators themselves to create a safe environment. We are asking guests to do the same thing and asking them to be equally as thoughtful as they socialize in those places. To follow the guidelines to make sure the environment is safe. When we see those things ins when we see those things in place, we are not seeing impact from the virus. There have been bad actors from time to time, but this industry has been very supportive in doing a great job following the guidelines. Thank you so much for your time. Leg lenderso we are seeing one report coming in lowerthanexpected. Watchfulso keeping a eye on the loan loss provisions, the credit provisions. That is also worse than what we sought last time. The headline number following the back of a similarly large number or dbs is the loan loss provision. We will get a lot more including more analysis on that on daybreak us cholla and daybreak asia. This is bloomberg. We are serving customers a close to 100 countries. They used to Digital Media a lot to communicate with them. I travel also. Because of the countries where we believe that the covid environment is more safe. Europe and ourin european office. I travel commercial to europe. Care, we are looking around and taking care of our people and the safety of our employees is the most important thing for us. One of the things ceos are wrestling with is pandemic fatigue. It is getting hard to work from home. How is the morale at your company and how do you keep it up . Thats a good question. I was talking to another ceo yesterday. There issummer out, morale issues. Weple are connecting and like to discuss in the meeting room and have a conference with each other with our team members. We have been quite good talking to our people definitely using the electronic channels. Being ined to different areas of the country. Reports are for 10 different countries. They are in different parts of the world. We are not always in one meeting room. We have different types of communications that makes it very effective. We start the meetings in the morning at 6 00 one time and we also cover also parts of the world. Challenging, it is tiring. It is longer hours. Thatetimes have the luxury between conference calls, i meet my family and have lunch with them. That gives me more energy to focus for my afternoon meetings. If the world was deal of lies and before covid19 d covid19, howfore do you function if there is less immigration and less trade . Believe that we are in deep globalization. You cant stop globalization anymore. It will continue. Not owned by is government and corporations. It is owned by individual people. People who are connected all the time. Look at our business. There are about 270 Million People living abroad. 270 Million People globally are migrants. 10 years ago, there weres 190 Million People living abroad. The last 10 years, there came another hundred Million People moving to other countries to look for better opportunities to support their loved ones back home. The globalization will continue in a different way. That complext in environment people together. Stay with us. Daybreak asia is next. This is bloomberg. Shery shery welcome to daybreak asia. I am shery ahn in new york. Haidi i am haidi stroudwatts in sydney. Our top stories this hour, asian markets facing a quiet start. The s p 500 within touching distance of an alltime high. Oil rose on falling u. S. Stockpiles. California has its second most deadly virus and day yet. Florida cases