Guy the university of michigan giving indicators of consumer confidence, pretty much in line with that except for the Current Conditions number, which looks a little light. It is up in terms of where we would expected to be normally, but nevertheless, you have an 82 print there but and citation of 85. 84 last time. At headline number coming in 72. 5, little lighter than the 72. 9. To 10ion 2. 6 five years years out. Basically everything in linux of the current number. Alix we are a little worried about what is going on. Underwaye call is right now, started at 10 00 a. M. They are reporting some good news in guyana. It has been a huge boon for hess is hard tobut it emphasize how bad this quarter was four at chevron and exxon, particularly with exxon not writing down any assets. Joining us is mark stoeckle, adams funds ceo and senior portfolio manager. It is always good to see you. I want to start on tech. Numbers were amazing. Companies made made billions of dollars. On the flipside, people indios already making less, spending more, dipping into savings, and a lot have less money with the Unemployment Benefits wearing out of its extra boost. Where do you reconcile that for yourself, as an investor . Mark good morning. It can be hard to do that, but i think the most important part is, often times and it has been noted on your show several times is there is a big difference between part of the economy and what these companies are able to do. As an investor, i think we need to continue to concentrate on what is driving revenue, what is driving margins. Clearly, the message we got last night was that revenue and margins continue to be driven regardless of the fact that the individual,n to the my not be doing as well as we would all like it to be. Guy with these numbers have been so good if the u. S. Government had not kicked in a load of stimulus into the u. S. Economy . Mark that is a really good question. I think they would have been good. What they have been quite this good . Not quite sure. Before the most part, this was below anyway. I do not think these companies specifically rely on the part of the population that is getting the vast majority of the government stimulus. Certainly some of it. You could argue some of the low havephones maybe would not done quite as well, the iphone se, but i do think there is a separation here, and it is something i think the market is having a hard time understanding. You look at what is going on with the economy, with unemployment, yet these Companies Continue to do what they are doing there is a decoupling there. But i think they all would have done well, even without the government stimulus. Alix so what do you do now . You have apple at a record high. How do you by the stocks . Or do you not . How do you diversified your portfolio so youre not just stocks . Mark that is one of the messages that i think is overlooked too often. Ondo we believe you should these four stocks and in varying degrees, we own all four of these stocks. But we also own 84 other stocks. Ishink the diversification important, especially as these things drive up into a little bit of rare air. The valuations are not nearly as cheap. Apples valuation has effectively doubled in a year. I would argue that they are doing a lot of good things because of that, but i think that the idea that i am sitting at home, as an individual investor, and i will just own any of these four stocks is a mistake. Important thats people diversified. I mean, lets look, just for a second, at the last month, say. That consumer discretionary, consumer staples, have both outperformed. Haveials, utilities outperformed technology. If youre just sitting on these, you have missed a good opportunity. The only sectors in the past month ive done as badly as tech is energy and financials. So i think the diversification matters, especially over the longterm. Shortterm, you can beat yourself up because i should have owned a little more apple or a little more facebook. But i think, over a longer term, the diversification is really important. Mark, one of the stocks you do own, family, is nvidia apparently, is nvidia. Nvidia is looking to buy arms from softbank is that a good idea . Mark let me start rising i am not sure how it could be done. Nvidia has plenty of cash on hand. They have that capacity as well be used,le stock to but lets not forget arm is an supplier of semiconductors. I have talked to our tech analysts. I am not sure why they would. It have really good ip . Yes, it does. But their Business Model is very different from nvidia. If i am apple, and i am buying if i am apple and i am buying from arm but i am competing against nvidia, how does that work . So could it happen, sure. Stranger things have happened. But we cannot see the really Good Business decision behind Something Like that. It mayway, i also think have antitrust issues as well, because i think samsung, qualcomm would all say that does not make much sense. Alix i think it also brings into the spotlight semis and other parts of tech that are not apple, facebook, google, and amazon there was a great piece in Bloomberg Opinion saying i believe the bond rally was a renewed bond in stocks. Is that what the bond rally tells you or not . And you can still sort of go looking for other areas . Mark i am not sure that is what the bond market is telling you, but we think we can go to other areas. Not apple,ertainly facebook, google, and amazon, but they have been on a really good run. Nvidia is one company. It has very valuable stock to be able to use. But there are certainly places that, i think, have been overlooked by some investors that really should not be. Would lead you to believe there are certainly other places to be looking. A quick question before we leave it if we get a blue wave in washington, how much more tax are these Tech Companies going to be paying . Mark well, the taxes will go up. I think there is no doubt about that. I think specifically it would appear that the democrats will be keenly focused on making sure they pay something. I do not think it is going to be outsized. I also think that i am not convinced that, if a blue wave happens in november, it is something that is going to happen immediately. Lets not forget that the republicans were not able to do this very quickly either, to lower taxes. So i think raising taxes would take some time. Go up andwould go up, a lot of different areas. Technology would not be the only sack their that would be disadvantaged by it. I do not think the disadvantage would be outsized, i just do not think they will get that through. Guy mark, great to share some time with you. Mark stoeckle, adams funds ceo. Lets move on and talk about what is happening in logistics. Xpo logistics is seeing a rebound in demand for its Truck Services following a temporary shutdown of the entire industry. It is one of the top 10 Transportation Logistics providers in the world. Its ceo is brad jacobs, and he joins us now. Watching washington, we are all trying to figure out exactly what happens if we do not get another stimulus package out of d. C. What would that mean for your business . How important is government stimulus right now to keeping the economy going . Brad it would certainly help, but it is not the end of the world if it does not go through. We just had a quarter where there was modest stimulus, but ofregenerated Free Cash Flow 121 million. And we saw sequential improvement each month of the quarter. So the trend is positive. Alix walk us through what was moving. Brad so the biggest amanda was in our last mile business, where we had 3 organic Revenue Growth yearoveryear. Provider ofargest last mile statistics for heavy goods in north america. So when you are buying a washing machine or a television or in exercise equipment or home improvement, we are more likely not to be we are more likely than not to be arranging that. That business was up this quarter. Guy do you think that continues . F that brad i think yes. I think people will still be indoors for a while. They will be improving their homes and apartments and will be exercising, and i think there will be more demand for that. I think that is a trend. And, by the way, everything ecomm related was on fire during the quarter. It is our biggest vertical. Ecomm in europe, where we have the largest equal filming we had hugere, rivers business, returns business that business has gone up quite a bit. Alix something we talk a lot about here on Bloomberg Television is the difference between how europe and the u. S. Dealt with the virus in terms of its stimulus and support of workers and how it positioned those countries coming out of the pandemic are you noticing that divergence on the ground in logistics . Brad 100 . Our European Business is far ahead of our north american business. The recovery they started earlier than us, but they also nationwide lockdowns. They are almost recovered. Not fully, but almost. We have some parts of our European Business that is actually higher than it was a year ago. The in the states, we see beginnings of recovery, but it is spotty and not anything compared to europe. Guy do you think that trend continues . Again, i am wondering what becomes permanent as a result of what we are seeing in covid19. Brad a lot of that depends on behavior. There are things we can control, in terms of how we react to the virus, and i am very encouraged that the Conversion Rate from getting sick from this awful disease and actually dying is going down. So the therapeutics are fantastic. Butforbid you get covid, youre better off getting it now then a few months ago. And vaccines are on the horizon. I was on a call with the ceos of andbig pharma companies, they are working at lightning speed to have vaccines in a few months. Now we have to get everyone say take the vaccine, which will be the next tumbling block after that. Alix what role will you play in the distribution of vaccines . In my interpretation if youre on a call with them, you will be part of that. Brad we will play a part in the logistics and distribution, in the warehouses to get it from here to there. That is what we do. We are a company that moves in the mosta to b efficient way, and we have 800 warehouses in the midst of that supply chain to make it more efficient. Everything that is going on in ecommerce we are facilitating. Ourmain thing driving growth is outsourcing trends. So companies, more and more, are throwing their hands up and saying, look, we need to outsource our transportation, someone who dresses fulltime for a living. Companies like xpo logistics. That will continue to drive the growth of the industry in the coming years. On that call with a pharmaceutical ceos, what are they telling you about the timelines that they are working to in terms of delivering the vaccine . What kind of messages are they giving you in terms of when your services will be required in order to get this out to the population . Brad they are very, very proud of something that usually takes about 10 years will rollout within a year. The speed of developing and testing and making sure the vaccines are safe and then manufacturing billions and billions of dosages is a monumental project. It may be the biggest project humankind has ever worked on. And they are saying they will have hundreds of millions of dosages in the next several months and that each one of them will have over one billion dosages next year. So to vaccinate 7 billion people on the planet and some will need more than one vaccine that is in sight. That i do nothing that lowly done within three months, six months, nine months. I think it is a second half next year of event. But i have been surprised on the upside of the speed of which they have been working on this. Alix when we hear from drug manufacturers, they say that manufacturing processes, like the little glass vials, are what they are missing. What are your hurdles . If you had a lead time of nine months, how quickly can you fix it . Brad i think the logistics, while huge and complex and daunting we can handle that. The main gaining factor is making sure the vaccines are safe. They are all doing trial tests now, taking 30,000, 40,000 patients, give half of them the real deal and half a placebo, and they do not tell who is getting which. They are doing this in places where there is a lot of covid activity. Then they will see, pretty quickly, what the rates are between the placebo and the actual vaccine. And they will see very soon, within months, which ones work and which do not. I am optimistic about the vaccines. I just think we have to be realistic about the time it takes to get all that done. I think it will be roughly nine months to 15 months. Alix we really enjoyed catching up with you. Logistics ceo. O coming up, glaxosmithkline gets the biggest investment yet for a vaccine. We will talk about that with roger connor. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am alex deal. Guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Twoputt 1 billion is pledged 2. 1axosmithkline billion has pledged for a glaxosmithkline vaccine. Joining us now is glaxosmithklines roger connor. We were just speaking to the ceo of xpo logistics. What are using on your side . Roger good to talk to you. Everyone wants to know the timeline. Towill take a number of time get there. We are going into critical Clinical Trial starting in september. We will start our final Clinical Trials, assuming those go positive at the end of the year, we are expecting approval of this vaccine in the first half of 2021. There is a chance some doses earlier could be available for emergency, but we are expect and expectingrst half that approval in the first half. Guy how does that money the u. S. Pledged get spent . Roger in terms of the 2. 1 billion issued for funding today, the split just over half of it is for research and development. Clinical trials are very expensive. Tens of thousands of being of people being tested. We are spending that amount in terms of Clinical Trial investment. The rest of it is actually manufacturing skill. Delivering acal is vaccine that is safe and effective but being able to make it at scale. Investing enough manufacturing capacity, buying Raw Materials in advance it takes months to manufacture. Assuming charles are successful, the minute we get a go, we have product sitting in assuming trials are successful, the minute we get a go, we have product sitting in vials, ready to go. Alix are you looking to make a profit . Roger we will price it thoroughly, everyone to make sure this is a and we want to make sure this is a global vaccine. Going to significantly discount it. For any profit we make in their shortterm term, we will reinvest that in a number of things. Reinvest it in research into the coronavirus for the future. Secondly, invest it in pandemic preparedness capability, so this does not happen again, or if it happens again, we can go even faster. Thirdly, donation purposes for the developing world. Guy where does that manufacturing go . Where does this stuff get produced . Element that gsk is manufacturing is actually a proven component of a vaccine. We have a supply chain in existence. It does not operate at the billiondollar dose next year, but our particular supply chain is in the u. S. , in europe. Coverage, and those manufacturing sites will be investing in building that cap ability up as fast as we can cap ability up as fast as we can. Alix who gets at first . Roger we believe it has to be globally accessible in terms of our overall approach. We know, though, there has to be investment at risk, so this is why investment from the likes of the u. S. And the u. K. Is critical. Sharinge investing and the risk of the manufacturer. Who gets at first in terms of timing . A lot of that will depend on the regulatory environment. Who approves it first and allows it to be used. That will play out over time. Of we willerms all want the first dose. The race is certainly on for that. And is your expectation terms of will i need a boost every year . Will i be seeing these investments today still being used, the capacity, still being used in five years, 10 years time . I am wondering about the longevity of the investment. The question. Vaccines could hate differently could behave differently. So how technologies perform in terms of efficacy, how many people actually get the required level of immune response, then also how long does that protection last four is key. Also which sent of the population gets it. We know the highest risk for covid19 is elderly. How that vaccine performs in that population is key. The technology we are using has a track record of giving that broader and wider protection in both population and in duration. It will be fascinating, over the next number of months. We will start to see headtohead comparisons of which vaccine creates that efficacy, who gets that duration of protection. That will answer your question in terms of is this thing that will be seasonal and keep coming back or can we prolong this protection . Guy we will leave it there. Good luck. Thank you for your time. Roger connor of gsk. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am alix steel come along with johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Signs the Housing Market is a bright spot in the struggling economy. Taylor morrison saw a demand with homeowners home orders up 80 . Ceo, sheryl and palmer, joins us now. Always great to get your take. If you walk us forward, the biggest question in my mind is, as we have millions of people intentionally losing 600 a week , starting tomorrow, what does your business look like in six months . Good morning. Good to see you again. Obviously, the strength in our industry, i think, has been somewhat really unexpected and very good. Their strength coming from consumers really across all age groups we have seen a lot of strength in firsttime buyers. Today, the ability to buy a home, if you have the ability, the down payment is more affordable than even rental rates, so we are seeing very strong demands of people pushing out a multi family into singlefamily. We are also seeing it across that first move up your people see people need more space because the kids are home. We are seeing it with active adults who want to make sure the balance of their journey was a good and positive one. Obviously, unemployment is always a key factor in homeownership. The consumers have an effective have been more renters than homebuyers. Fromare people moving urban to suburban . Yeah, we are seeing that, and the last time we talked, we said we were hearing a lot about that. There was a