Europe is different than america. The 12 number is equivalent to number yesterday in the United States. It is showing tension in europe as well. Friday low on this is it absolutely extraordinary . Francine i feel like we have not had a quiet newsday on a friday in quite some time. E had quite a lot of earnings quite a lot of politics with the latest declarations by President Trump, and there is just quite a lot overall in geopolitics as well, so we will get through that in a second. Thats get to the first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika good morning, francine, tom, Senate Public is want to go on the record saying they tried to restore supplemental jobless benefits to millions of americans. Mitch mcconnell is trying to force a debate on a stopgap measure for those 600 a week checks. Democrats want the jobless but onlyextended, too, as part of a larger relief package. President trump is coming under pressure to Setting National strategy for the coronavirus. The white house has largely avoided strict rules to unlock the plan. Experts say that has made shortages of protective gear at hospitals worse. It could complicate distribution of vaccines. In the ok, Prime MinisterBoris Johnsons government has reimposed lockdown restrictions on millions of people. Authorities targeted a large part of northern england. They say people there failed to follow social distancing measures, and that led to a spike in coronavirus cases. People in greater length check greater manchester, like a nort, and yorkshire will longer be able to meet with others. Results from apple, amazon, facebook, and alphabet show the industry is capitalizing on the coronavirus crisis. Consumers are using gadgets and the internet more to the tune of 2. 4 billion come and the net income of 29 billion in the fourth quarter. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. Instead of bringing it to a complete halt, we will give it to you throughout surveillance today. Futures are up. You see it elevated in the technology stocks. Moments ago, Joseph Feldman advised that his price target, which he raised a week ago from 3200 to 3600 on amazon, chelsea Advisory Group now goes to 4000 on amazon. That is an extra ordinary statistic and im sure we will see more on that today. Jim suber raises apple as well. Equities are up, nasdaq is going to be up like a moonshot. What i would really focus on is yields. The two year yield, we broke. 11 , and we had a moment where we were. 1093. That is truly extraordinary, and you see an equivalent in the fx market. Francine, youve got to tell me how you are going to afford a euro of 1. 1854. Francine sorry, tom, we are not traveling anymore. European shares gaining. I think there is a lot of good feeling out there on the markets about these stellar earnings from american tech giants, and that just seems to be lifting sentiment in general. We did have some pretty bad Economic Data and news about the research and virus, but you are right, you can see treasuries 1970g higher, gold above dollars an ounce. You did something brilliant there, which is you did not look at the yield, but you looked at the price in the bond markets. I would suggest, francine, through this week and erik nielsen can talk about this we have seen a shift to the frenzy just to buy the paper. It is not about yield, it is about price. Francine lets get straight to erik nielsen. Thank you so much for joining us. There is a lot going on in the market overall. Are we better off now than we were a month ago because of the e. U. Repair every plant, or recovery plan, or do you have real concerns about what is happening in the u. S. . Erik good morning. I think we are better off for the simple fact that they approved the trust at least in europe. We are optimistic that we get a general lockdown. I am worried about the u. S. , and im more worried about the emerging markets, where the pandemic seems to be close to out of control. Therere is a real big is a huge question mark on the gdp for everybody. Francine with risk to the downside, or actually could it also be better than expected . Yeah, compared to our forecast, i think the answer is that things are looking a little bit better. If the numbers we have published today and yesterday, they want to quote it, if they remain as they are being printed now, which they probably will because it is so is so difficult for the statistical offices decimate. Two estimate. It is still we are coming off that trough, and that is good news. Spin offke a positive the fact that we have detailed daily or hourly monitoring of the pandemic throughout europe, so you see localized shutdowns. That is for the economy and for health. Tom lets triangulate right now. We have sterling out to 1. 31, euro exploding, 1. 15 up to 1. 18 stronger euro. It is all a bit confusing. Is the euro moving too quickly for mr. Mccraw, ms. Merkel, and the rest . Erik i dont think policymakers like quick moves in anything, to be honest, so i think this is moving a bit faster, and certainly we thought you know, tom, i think the conversation i have had with our investors in america, has again and again over the last few weeks been positive with europe because we have a bit of a a collective word to come through this in contrast to the u. S. And we have handled the pandemic in europe that are, and then prices on equities are a lot cheaper in europe. So it was written in the stars, i think, that eurodollar has to move higher. Francine. A banner, astrology with erik nielsen. You are an optimist. I want you to get out front of the reinvestments to q3 and q4 in the United States. The numbers yesterday were horrific. Does unicredit americas do you feel that that is repeatable, or do you just assume a rebound in u. S. Gdp . Rebound, but some i really worry about the numbers in america because either you in the worstdowns affected states, and that impacts the whole u. S. Or with lockdowns for critical reasons that people dont want to do it, people get nervous. These early indicators come you can see that people get nervous, they dont go out. So it will have an impact. When you look at the forecast for the end of the year into next year, i am worried. , new york city is shut down. We are doing seamless with grubhub and the rest of it from mcdonalds. Erik well, that is good for mcdonalds but not good for anybody else, probably. Tom francine, have you ever been to mcdonalds . Francine we are italian, tom, tomy mother would go mcdonalds for the fries as a treat. So as a child, mcdonalds was a fivestar restaurant. It was twice a year, and there was a festivity around it. And you look at asian economies, are they on a much better footing . Im hearing more and more investors say that real value right now is in china. Well, on the economics, yes. But at the same side come at the same time that we have this big debate about the pandemic and the shutdown, we also have a real acceleration in the tension between america and china, with sanctions and lockdowns and aggression. So i think you have to be really careful when you go into china right now because this has become political. Americaan election in in november, and god knows what trump is going to do between now and then. The Chinese People are not going to take this lying down. I worry about that a lot, and also with europe being caught in the middle. I am a little bit reluctant. I would not buy into china right now. Francine eric, thank you so much. Erik nielsen of unicredit stays with us. We will try to maybe go back to mcdonalds, with toms and put this money. Hour, andin the next interview at 6 00 a. M. In new york, 11 00 a. M. In london. And this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. We were having a good conversation about some of the economic prospects around the world. Lets get back to erik nielsen from unicredit. We are talking about the asian economies. How do you see the pandemic affecting those . Are we just going to see a difference because of the u. S. , we seem to find to struggle to find a stimulus bill, but in china they can do as much as they want . Dont know if they can do as much as they want, but it certainly doesnt get caught in china between the political parties. America is special now because of the election, and the divisive resident that they have. But you see in and the divisive president that they have. But you see in places, in italy now, we are waiting for the big european package to materialize into cash. The economies in asia, in europe, in america, they all need more stimulus because we sector,e debt in the and to get the economy back on its footing, im convinced we need to get more Fiscal Incentives to push it forward. Tom i want you to give me a number here on the gdp number coming out, yesterday to today. What we are in in q3 and q4, the backdrop is mr. Walsh, who has a little experience at iag he is in the middle of his call right now with 1400 bodies out the door. He says, erik, misguided to consider cello crisis temporary. Are we misguided in thinking there will be a recovery into 2021 . Erik no, i think that you will get a recovery almost certainly. It is impossible to think that we dont shove off from these very low levels. But two very important things i dont think anybody really realistically should think that the levels of gdp by the end of 21 he won will be back at the end of 2021 will be back at precrisis levels. Tom this is so important because of time. If we are looking at a Level Analysis and we dont get back to our levels, do you just assume that we retest a zero bound, in the u. K. And the United States, and they have to reconsider Interest Rates, negative Interest Rates . Erik absolutely right. You keep the pedal to the metal. If it goes negative, i doubt it, in america, but to be down here, you probably have more qe, you get more physical and more monetary stimulus. I think it is a given all the way through next year. Francine how much more monetary stimulus . Is there a limit to what they can do . Erik there is no limit to what policymakers will do. I think the guiding principle you want to think about is, it is now fiscal policy and that is good because it will be better that way, and then the monetary authorities will do whatever it takes to prevent that additional public borrowing to finance it from tightening of the monetary condition. So they would buy basically the incremental issuance as a rough guide. This is the way you want to think about it, at least the way i think about it. Tom erik nielsen, thank you for the key phrase incremental. It is interesting to see these Conference Calls in sectors where technology is booming. That is not the case in british airways. It is, iag. Mr. Walsh out with comments. He makes it clear, 1400 voluntary redundancies among some of the struggles right now. He is looking out to 2021, and it is a challenge. This is an extraordinary day on technology and on the bond markets and the Foreign Exchange markets, what you need to know. U. S. , lower, the twoyear. 1093. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. It is an extra ordinary day. Daniel ives will join us in the next hour. He has been dead on in the enthusiasm for technology. Right now with a broader view, matthew bloxhams with Bloomberg Intelligence and we talk here about these Conference Calls. Right now i have citigroup out to 450. That is presplit on apple. And joe feldman down to 4000 this morning on amazon as well. Comment important heard was from mr. Cook, where he knows what is coming, and he said we are not a zerosome game where we are taking zeros um game. Do you buy that technology is additive . It isyou know, i think overall, and i think every year there is some new innovation. Period, markets being created, clearly it does have some impact on the legacy. Tom the pandemic is here and the massive question is what is seasonally and off quarter. What is your reading of all the literature on the persistency of these rates of change that are excellent . Matt i think some of these clearly, amazon is the ndout, with the amount of people had already been shifting in big volumes to online, and i think the way amazon has handled the pandemic, improving delivery times, i think it is just going to push more and more people that direction. There are smaller brands with these direct to consumer brands. There has been a lot of traction h people buying everything i think the direct connection between consumer and producer is up 11 ,making facebook a lot of that is driven by instagram, where these smaller businesses can reach directly and sell to consumers. Does does it mean it support the evaluations that people are questioning in some of these stocks . Matt i think it does. There is a lot of growth priced into these stocks for sure, but i think when you come out with numbers, the way these businesses did, then yes, there is a pandemic boost there. All these businesses operating incredibly well and also there is a huge amount of focus on the platforms. And i think this is reinforcing that. As long as they continue to be dominant, there is not disruption by regulatory and antitrust measures, that i think they are on a great growth track. Francine do you have regulatory concerns . Are any of these in danger of being broken up . I would be surprised if it came to that. I think all of these big players are being given a lot of opportunity to adjust how they operate kind of softening things around the edges, and i think they will do enough to kind of head off those kinds of really big risks. Ok, but the are risk is there for sure. Tom matthew bloxham, thank you so much. We will dive into tech with a real fervor in the 6 00 hour, and then with jon ferro and Lisa Abramowicz later this morning. We are looking forward to getting an update on dan ives, as everyone recalibrate on the moves down the income statement, and the ability to generate cash as well. In the bond market, there is a stunning statistic that the United States twoyear yield is in positive. 1093. That has moved seismically over this week. That is a huge deal. Digits,. 1093. 1093. Le digits, price up, youll down. Fulbright out near 2000 an ounce. Gold right out near 2000 announce. And leon panetta with david westin, really looking forward to this. I think you could go with mr. Pennetta this morning, you could have about a two hour conversation, and maybe baby it weston maybe david westin will do that. This is bloomberg. Businesses are starting to bounce back. But what if you could do better than that . Like adapt. Discover. Deliver. In new ways. To new customers. What if you could come back stronger . Faster. Better. At comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. But bounce forward. Thats why were helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24 7 support and Flexible Solutions that work wherever you are. Call or go online today. You say the customers maklets talk data. S. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept. 5g, everybody is talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item, corner offices for everyone. We just have to make more corners in this building. Chad . Your wireless, your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Switch to Xfinity Mobile and save up to four hundred dollars a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get two hundred dollars off when you buy an eligible phone. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Comment fencing from london and new york. Drop in therted a second quarter. The chief executive of the makers largest cosmetics remains optimistic about the second half. The share price is up today, and he spoke to bloomberg earlier on in paris. Definitely i am pretty confident for the second half, first because i think the appetite for beauty is strong. It is always strong. Noter two, i think we will see the same type of lockdowns, confinement that we experienced because it has been proven that it is devastating for the economy. So i dont think we will see it again. Third, very important, ecommerce has really grown tremendously along this crisis. It grew 5 on the first half, but in june it was growing 80 . A very Good Alternative for consumption. I am working from home, and i put a little bit of makeup today. That has become the exception rather than the rule. Did you actually believe it is the end of an era and there is going to be a deep, lasting downturn . I dont think so it all. I am happy to see that you are wearing some makeup, and people are more and more, even when people are more and more wearing theyp again, more so than used to before. Consumption, we see consumption secondly,again, and we all hope that you would not be obliged to work from home for the rest of your life. So there will be a day where you will, with a vaccine or treatment or something where you will be able to go out, i am betting that this day you will wear a lot of makeup because you will want to celebrate your return to the real life. Tom very good. Loreal there. I am looking at myself this money, and i this think i just think that i need elena rubenstein aging and brightening. I needs deep renewing francine you need a serum, tom. Tom yeah, i need a serum. You do this. Ly thing . He rol francine i use everything, tom. Serums. What people dont spend on makeup, tv anchors are probably making up for it because we are on the air so much. News, thefirst word always beautiful ritika gupta. Tom. A thanks, Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell is moving to force a debate on a stopgap bill to extend supplemental and limit benefits. Millions of americans will no longer get those 600 weekly checks. Democrats are opposed to the stopgap bill. They want the jobless measure to be part of a larger stimulus package. Chinas economy sped up this month, the official gauge of growth in the second half as factor output is recovering. The nonmanufacturing index dropped slightl