Tomorrow. We will have our fed coverage as usual. Then onto an exceptionally busy end of the week. Theres no question about it, you wonder where this stimulus debate will be in washington by the end of the week and into the sunday talk shows. Jonathan 98 days until the election, you would think washington, d. C. Would get it together. Just as the economy starts to roll over, as that recovery starts to plateau, the collective will to do a whole lot more fades. That is the story, and it is always the story you when you exit the immediate crisis, the collective will fades. Tom Lawrence Kudlow still talking about a vshaped recovery. I am looking at the 3m and 16 , 20 s, unemployment. Where is the recovery . Jonathan as of q3, theres your v. After that you rollover. That is what everyone is expecting, even with the reopening. Everyone expected that mechanical lift as you go from shut down to reopen pretty much every economist expected it to fade as we got deeper into the summer. The big concern is we are seeing it fade now and we are not seeing enough from what do upset thent for the income stoc income shock. This pandemic and this episode is going to go on way into 2021. It will continue to weigh on growth. We will have an extended time below capacity. You need a bandaid from fiscal policy makers, and we keep doing it three months, four months. It is not enough. Tom we bring in now Lisa Abramowicz after a sabbatical to rejoin us on a tuesday. This firstlways see in the bond market. While you were off on your sabbatical, there were some options. I never talk options, folks. Toa people are looking extend their maturities out for the next 20, 30 at t sold 11 billion in order to push out some of the maturities of debt due in 2040. What i am interested in, going back to the idea of the stimulus debate, you are going to get more targeted stimulus programs Going Forward around the world as Congress Members and policymakers lose the momentum, lose the sense of urgency. From an investing standpoint, how much does this lead to increasing default and companies that have relied on the stimulus to stay afloat and will no longer be able to do this Going Forward . Tom it is going to be fascinating to see. I look for david westin with important conversation, balance , andwer at 12 00 noon then onto Kevin Cirilli. Lets jumpstart this discussion with the experience of Tobias Levkovich at citigroup. He knows the granularity, the corporations, and the bigger view at citigroup on the stock market. Have you changed your view in the last number of days . Tobias not in the last number of days. We have thought the market was a with someof itself bumps along the way. Come back to some degree due to the powell put. The bond market is actually sending two different messages. If you look at the u. S. Tenured yield, you would say it is disbelieving in the recovery. But if you look at the 10 year breakevens, they continue to move higher. Are you seeing that in the equity space . Im looking at revenue shortfalls at 3m, at mcdonalds. Are you just taking that into your 2021 cake . Tobias we are. We are looking for earnings this and 150the 125 range, next year. Institutions suggested that 75 that 164 is too high. Are carrying. They are jumping and even if they dont necessarily like it, but they feel they have to be in it to win it. Jonathan what do you think of the argument that because we have narrow brent, this is a fragile rally . Tobias not entirely. There are some large cap tech names clearly leading the market in the sense that people what that secular growth with bulletproof Balance Sheets and Free Cash Flow generation. But for example, the second quarter, 126 names in the 500 beat the s p 500 by more than 10 . Missed and what i would call the narrative out there. Tom big tech earnings Jonathan Jonathan big tech earnings this thursday. Big tech earnings this thursday. Work fromthink the home construct has generated some Business Trends that have really accelerated trends that thatng before area were going before. The online versus instore shopping trend was going for years, but we have accelerated it area all of these things were already very much moving along. All we have really done is supercharge the speed. Lisa one of the big stories has been the weaker dollar versus its competitor currencies area since 2018, how does this factor into your strategy . Tobias it is actually quite important. If i look at budget deficits as a percent of gdp, it is a pretty good indicator for many years now. Suggesting dollar weakness already, prior even to the pandemic. People ran for the safety of treasuries believing they would have significant support systems. As we were starting to reopen the economy, even with these awful bumps in terms of outbreaks, it is unlikely we are going to shut down the economy the same way we did arch, april and may. To be expensive from economic it is it is too expensive from an Economic Perspective area it is unlikely you will see that kind of shutdown. You may see sporadic ones or regionally focused ones, but not entire countries. In that sense, you are looking at an environment where the dollar doesnt have to be a safe haven. When that pulls back, historically emerging markets outperform the u. S. Historically, certain groups, even they have Large International sales, actually dont do as well. There are other ones that do particularly well that are commodity oriented. Aspects to the dollar that are quite important. Lisa is this the playbook you are going to come of the idea that we have a weaker dollar Going Forward given the parameters that you just laid out come of the people should be going into emerging markets and staying away from the multinationals . Tobias not necessarily. Semiconductors, pharma. They are multinational. They have large exposure to international sales, but they do poorly when the dollar weakens, which is not consistent with the Intuitive Development of what it does. You will actually translate to higher revenues in the u. S. Everyone is entitled to their misperceptions, but we actually look at how stocks trade. Tom your thoughts on the big banks . They are an area that investors have disliked for a while yet initially it was the shape of the yield curve, concerns about credit loss visions, but they are willing to trade up some other cyclicals around that area we wonder if this will lead to more disturbing and investor mindsets area may be the concern in trends turns more toward fintech area i think the stoxx themselves look area attractive lee valued right now on the back. There still is Business Activity out there. Areit card businesses generally doing well. It is kind of hard to get a sense that things are awful in banks. Theres some concern about the elections maybe, the democrats taking the senate as well as the white house, and maybe there will be some more bank bashing. But these are more speculation than anything real at this point. Jonathan great to catch up with you. Tobias levkovich of citi. Getting some headlines from Chuck Schumer, saying, eva chin protection is not part of the eviction ran protection is not part of the gop plan. We are pretty far apart on stimulus talks. That spread between democrats and republicans, it is about 2 trillion. We talked about the size issue. You can find an agreement on size, but if you are really battling on concepts and philosophical ideas, it means we have got some hard to do. Tom it is like shared values tuesday, where they all play off of each other in the media. I am really wondering where are we a day and a half from now, with the fed meeting at all of that . Jonathan i agree, it is the blame game. You will see the democrats go to democrat tv, republicans go to republican tv, and each blame each other. Critical of democrats dragging their feet. In this moment, we have had months to calibrate the appropriate response to this and put the details together, and republicans drag their feet, and it does not look good down in washington. Tom we are trying to do it like brexit. Jonathan well, let me give you some serious advice. Take no clues from the Brexit Debate on how to formulate a lessee in washington how to formulate policy in washington. It is ridiculous, and you know it is. Tom it is the election season. Jonathan is this good politics for anyone . It gets your constituency up. Senator cruz in texas has a constituency. He is speaking to it. Jonathan coming up, chris uger of cowen. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im british. The battle is on over what the next coronavirus stimulus relief bill will look ash i medical im riddick im ritika gupta. Nextattle is on a variety coronavirus stimulus release bill will look like. The coronavirus is reaching a plateau and some of the hardest hit u. S. States as Health Officials impose measures like closing bars and requiring masks. Florida reported that he was new cases in almost three weeks. Texas had the lowest total in two weeks. Now states wonder whether they can keep infection rates down until a vaccine arrives. China is buying american imports, but not enough to hit deal,rms of the trade based on cap relations from chinese customs data. Ofna has bought about 23 the purchase targets for 2020. Purchases of Farm Products have stepped up the last two months. Nissan has issued an outlook for a bigger than expected loss for the fiscal year. Post 4. 5 billion in operating losses, and also plan to skip its operating dividend to skip its dividend. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Sen. Schumer Senate Republicans have presented us with a halfhearted, halfbaked proposal. The republican plan is to little, too late. The republican plan is weak when our problems need a much stronger brew. Jonathan the words of u. S. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer in washington, d. C. Thats where the focus is right now. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. From new york, one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell, here is your price action. Equities shaping up as follows, down by 0. 4 on the s p 500. Yields come in its ingle basis point to 0. 61 . Down 0. 3 . The drama is down in washington right now. Some calm on wall street. The expectation is still that they get this done, and this was in evitable, that these two sides would clash at some point. We are seeing that play out big time this morning. Tom the stimulus is going to be many trillions of dollars. There will also be a lot of detail. Cowen,rueger is at and he has a reputation for exquisite layout of the detailed. I am sure he will do it again in august. Chris, what is the detail your most focused on as we stagger to some kind of agreement . Chris good morning. Thanks for having back. I think the big question here, the crux of this phase for bill is going to be the expiring 600 weekly uninsurance payments each ended this weekend. The House Democrats want to extend that for six months at 600. The republican plan from last night would take that 600 down to 200 through september, and then basically kick it to the states for the states to figure out how to cap edit 70 of previous wages. I think theres no real surprise from the bid ask where we are. The House Democrats put up over 3 trillion over two months ago, and i think it will be one of ,he great political whatifs why President Trump and the republicans didnt embrace a 3 trillion stimulus two months ago, whereas now we are steering off a fiscal cliff for over 20 million americans and we are probably somewhere in the 1,000,000,000,002 1. 5 trillion the 1 trillion to 1. 5 trillion ballpark. Lisa is there any argument you think is legitimate against having a 600 unemployment benefit continue for the next couple of months . Chris the real pushback has been from a number of white house advisors and Senate Republicans. Phase three in march almost all apart over the 600 weekly supplemental. Various studies have shown that as much as five out of six folks raisetting effectively a from their previous salary from january. This is really the key controversy with the bill. Republicans will get the liability shield. Democrats will get some chunk of money to go to states and municipalities. The 600 unemployment fiscal cliff is the real question. Jonathan is an interim bill at this point dead on arrival . Do you see any prospects for that down in washington . Chris it could happen, the old saying is whenever washington finds itself on the edge of a fiscal cliff, they tend to build or land. So perhaps doing an extension of the 600 weekly payments may be through september, because he will have another cliff when the fiscal year begins on october 1. You will have to pass some kind of bill to keep the government from shutting down, so maybe tying it to that, but that is going to come under intense pressure from a number of fiscal hawks who have all of the sudden returned to washington after two years of hibernation. Jonathan how does being a fiscal hawk poll right now in america among some of these constituencies . I think itk chris is going to be one of the great political whatifs on that package over 3 trillion that the House Democrats sponsored and passed over two months ago. I think it is quite regional. Candidly, the Senate Republicans who are most vocal on this are not running for reelection. They have staggered terms. So that maybe answers your question. Want to double down on this idea of what political benefit is there to going against some sort of big fiscal stimulus. At this point, how is the idea of ongoing enhanced unemployment benefit among republicans benefit polling among repo begins . Among republicans . Chris there is a real belief among Senate Republicans that this extension of the 600 is keeping the economy back, meaning that people would rather stayathome and collect the 600 on top of their state payments as opposed to going back into the workforce and looking for jobs. Tom what are you going to look for today, in the next 24 hours in washington . The whole cable media frenzy, the newspaper frenzy, etc. , what is Chris Krueger most focused on . Chris it is a bit of a crazed week here. You have the ongoing funeral of the late john lewis, the big tech hearing tomorrow. You have the fed as well. I dont expect much on phase four today. The primary negotiators are pretty much the same from phase three, with the exception of now mark meadows, the white house chief of staff, is sort of a cohead with the treasury secretary. But then the actor we have seen before, mcconnell, pelosi, schumer. So at some point, i suspect we will have a meeting at the white house which will probably productively go sideways. You want to keep those five folks in a room injecting the president into these talks. We have seen that the last couple of times, and inevitably it causes a negative tape. That could also be a positive. We will see how it unfolds. I would say that this has a lack of urgency that the previous negotiations had, and i think some of that is because we are not opening limit down every morning anymore. Jonathan we need to market to do the hard work. It is depressing. Chris, thank you, sir. Tom, it is depressing because it is kind of true. It is just absolutely pathetic. The only Thing Holding this labor market back right now is the pandemic. If you and i wanted to go for a meal friday night like we used to, go inside a restaurant with the airconditioning, guess what . We cant. It is the virus holding back the labor market, not the 600 enhanced and implement benefits. Thathilosophical argument the economy is constrained when large pipes of it thats large parts of it or not reopening, that is not the enhanced unappointed benefit. That is the pandemic. Tom we will see on august 7, the jobs report. Jonathan coming up, lara rhame, Fs Investments chief u. S. Economist. From new york, this is bloomberg. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. But what if you could stdo better than that . K. Like adapt. Discover. Deliver. In new ways. To new customers. What if you could come back stronger . Faster. Better. At comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. But bounce forward. Thats why were helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24 7 support and Flexible Solutions that work wherever you are. Call or go online today. Jonathan this is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. One hour away from the cash open. Shaping up as follows. Equity futures bouncing off the lows. We have seen euro strength, a lot of it over the last couple of weeks through much of this month. Some weakness this morning. Eurodollar back to 1. 1722. We had salve on treasury yields. Yield on the 10 year. You mentioned that payrolls report. I wonder how many people realize that payrolls report comes just as congress breaks up for recess once again. Tom you wonder if therell be a vote. My basic take is they will probably delay it until the end. Lara rhame knows that. She is at Fs Investments. We will recalibrate off of a strong note. Do we see a lift off. Give us an