I believe we are wrangling about waiting a week or two to do it. Dialogue, itest seems, in the United Kingdom. British way ofry approaching things, isnt it, tom, trying to do with all. Ventualities finally you come to a decision and you are concerned if it is the correct one. It is the correct one at this point in time. We are watching with great hasrest how the debate become so politicized. We are scratching our heads, trying to figure out whether it is the right thing to do, but it is not politicized the same way as in the states. You mentioned in the headlines, the president finally wearing a mask to walter reed. That is may be a big step in the right direction. One angles certainly there. Us with an will join update, leading the way, the effect on the economy and of course across the different markets. With news in new york city, here is ritika gupta. Ritika good morning. 15,300 newed record coronavirus cases in florida, the biggest oneday rise since the outbreak in the u. S. The number of deaths fell by more than half from the day before. The decline in florida set by rate of positive tests. There is a warning, the hospitals in the miami area are approaching capacity. China is imposing sanctions against marco rubio and ted cruz , over legislation intended to punish beijing for treatment of ethnic minorities in the countrys far west. Several other u. S. Officials were also named. The u. S. Censured a top member of chinas Ruling Communist Party and three other officials over alleged human rights abuses. Me in hong kong, residents sent a signal of continued opposition to beijing. More than a halfmillion Million People defied government warnings to vote in an unofficial primary. The today vote was aimed at narrowing down potential candidates for hong kongs legislative council. With poll shows joe biden a fivepoint lead over President Trump in texas. He holds a 4641 lead over registered voters. His handling over the coronavirus pandemic may have influence results. Say theyose called disapprove of his performance. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritika ntries, up death. This is bloomberg. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. A lift in the equities markets. The vix turning goes the other way. That is not unusual on a monday morning. 27. 92 on the vix. The first thing i looked at when i came in to 731 lexington this morning, the yield markets, the two year yield 10 year yield from a. 66 into. 3. I would also note gold up 12. What do you have, guy . The curve flattening for the banks. We will talk about that this week. European stocks higher this morning. We got a positive legacy out of asia. Csi 300 up once again, 2. 1 . We await chinese gdp this week. You mentioned eurodollar, we are waiting for the ecb thursday and the capital meeting friday. I would highlight copper again, at 1. 85 . Keep an eye on what is happening in that space ahead of the chinese gdp. I have to mention tesla as well, with copper, up again despite the model white cuts. Maybe we will talk about that later on. A massive, massive week coming up for Central Banks. We are waiting to see what happens this week from the ecb and the boj. To a certain extent, i think it is a bit of a nonevent, but the bank of englands Andrew Bailey speaking at a webinar entitled libor entering the endgame also fed president John Williams on that panel as well. Francine lacqua is going to moderate that. Tomorrow we get the ecb publishing, bank lending survey, the ob are on the budget responsibility. Three different responsibilities r on the pandemic. Keep an eye on the data this week. Wednesday, boj publishing its monthly policy decision, Monetary Policy decision. Thursday the ecb is out, so we get the lagarde point of view. Marking time this week, and i think friday, the main event of the week, 47 e. U. Nations gathering with their leaders in brussels to hash out the details of the 750 billion euro economic package. It is absolutely critical that this gets done at some point. It might not get done this week, but it needs to get done at some point. Morning, valentin marinov. Going into the friday council meeting, are you expecting a deal to get done . What impact will it have on the currency . Goodtin there is a chance the deal will be done already this week, and overall, the indication with the euro group last week from the leaders meetings in particular, and ther merkel upcoming meeting this week will be scrutinized for more indications of the compromise that could be reached. Failif the heads of state to reach a compromise, the approach in the markets, a compromise will come, should come in the coming weeks. Essentially by the end of december. In terms of market price action, that will continue to make the europe investors using any opportunity to jump on that euro bandwagon. Tom how would you play euro right now . One of the great mysteries, and i saw this last week, the mystery over the major payers. How do you express a bet on euro into the autumn and for that matter into 2021 . Valentin at the moment we have a eurodollar long in our portfolio, and we are targeting 120,e closer to potentially higher down the road. Predominantly the euro still looks cheap 1. 20, intentionally hired on the road. Predominantly the euro still looks cheap. And the eurodollar is the drive toward diversification away from the dollar. That we are seeing not necessarily in eurodollar on this, but other dollar crosses. As the u. S. Is trying to deal with it second wave of covid19, the rest of the world is catching up. There is a sense that risk assets in europe, fixed income assets in europe are going to be more attractive than their counterparts in the u. S. So that is diversification away from the u. S. Into europe, encouraging purchase of the eurodollar as well. Tom when i hear that, it is so important, the idea of moving big figures. The fx market is so quiet. We are stuck at 1. 07 since time began on yen. Really extraordinary. I really think it is important, what he said about flows. Thinking about the sanctions we have heard announced this morning regarding senator rubio and others come and you think about how the chinese are going to be playing what is going on here. They clearly see a fracturing of the global system. They need their currency to become a more freely available way of exchange. They are probably looking at the euro as well. As dollar assets get withdrawn, they flow back into the euro by the chinese. There is a tectonic shift in the Foreign Exchange market, really important right now. I dont know where it goes, so maybe valentin is right. I think we want to Pay Attention to the Bigger Picture background shifts that are taking place here at the moment. Valentin, lets pick up on that a little bit. You talk about the weight of the world changing. Talk to me about how i should perceive the dollar going forward. The chinese need to protect their currency. They needed to be useful on a global basis. Is that positive as well for the euro . The dollar side, what we are seeing from the imf is a structural downtrend in the dollar falling across all Central Banks. We have recently march is the lowest level in terms of dollars 2011, it was the Second Lowest since 1996. These are interesting times, and looking at the flow, it is the case that we do see diversification away from the dollar, but as you also said, in terms of diversification into point, they, case in chinese, it was encouraging last week that with the dollar cnh collapse that we saw, very sharp moves coincided with a very sharp outperform of chinese stocks. Looking back at the euro, the latest ecb balance with data, there is tangible evidence that was taking place, the less investors become buyers of domestic. My point being that the rest of the world has been very invested in the u. S. For the last five years. Most of those investors were based in europe. Assets,e domestic looking at it as before, political risks and all that. Guy stick around. We need to carry on the conversation. Valentin marinov will stay with us. Nader on, and exclusive later on, a discussion with the outgoing euro group president. That conversation with alix steel and myself at 11 30 a. M. New york time, 4 30 p. M. London time. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. Distancing in london. I am back in the studios, wonderful to be back here at 7, 31. I really cannot say, not only the group effort by bloomberg lp , but also guy johnson, Team Surveillance has done a fabulous job here. My bowtie was due sanitized, and. T really worked out on day one back, it has been 122 days for me, folks, to get back here at 7 30. Right now, 120 two good ideas 122 valentin marinov, good ideas from valentin marinov. How do you readjust your strategy with the reality of the bond markets, central bank induced, which is negative real rates like we have never seen before . How does the chronic and persistent negative real rates change g10 fx analysis . Seen quite ahave lot of convergence in those rates, clearly, in recent months, and certainly the rate differentials, real rate threats are playing kind of a diminished. Ole compared to before if you think of a valuation framework, it is all about appeal of a safe haven. Real yield, it is now all gone. I guess the biggest loser of that convergence in those real rates, real yield, has been indeed the dollar. The second fact, you mentioned early on, the slope of the curve has been playing an increasing role, but investors are now looking at box spreads, comparing the growth in the yield curve and trying to pay straight from that. Tom the world has turned upside down. We are going to get a monday brief later as we go into the week on being bank big bank earnings. When everything is said and done, the world is turned upside down. There does fx play into this . ,as it just become a boring dampened game, or can it actually be speculative where someone can find alpha . Clearly, i mean, the moves have been pronounced, and i agree completely with your remark on implied volatility. We did rally immediately after covid19, but now we are back with a more normal level. I guess without rate differentials, it may be difficult to find any natural outlook in those, but i think following the flows, following the logic of diversification away from the dollar, and indeed following other factors, obviously the Health Situation in Different Countries has become much more of a prominent driver of currency of late. All of that certainly could help to generate some excess return. It will not be a thing that certainly we are highlighting again. The euro seems to be the most sensitive, with changes in the stringent of the lockdown. Beenthe government has using, and you could see that in britain, the euro has become the most sensitive, also adding convictions to the idea that as europe emerges from the lockdown, europe could extract from that the most tangible gains across the board. As tom mentioned, we are going into earnings season. By many metrics, or tech, stocks are showing punchy multiples. Therefore there is the danger that this earnings season produces a down drop in stocks. If we see stocks moving lower, is the nature reaction to buy the dollar . Valentin i mean, the dollar is still the old safe haven. That is the legacy from the dollars Current Situation from march and april, where everything was being sold so people could get their hands on dollar cash. Upward correlation has been there supporting the dollar. I think, however, that more recently things have started to change, and ultimately started to weaken that correlation. And that is something that is really more dovish rhetoric, through a number of speakers. Incould also see this week negative, where sentiment could support the dollar, according to which that could be a positive for the currency, given that also makes the fed more likely to respond, reach the negative shock before long. Even there, even during risk from the going away dollar, and the japanese yen, even the euro. Guy would you fight gold right now . At 1800. Trong we have cpi data out this week. You think cpi data could alter the Market Perception of gold . A matter of fact, we have been long on gold for some time. That was her best trade asset last year that was our best trade asset this year. In an environment where each and every central bank is trying to outdo the rest by sounding more dovish, the only asset in limited supply is gold. So this kind of appeal certainly is going to i think carry gold to break the heights against the dollar gains, other currencies. , anerms of the role of gold inflation hedge, that is another interesting consideration. Looking at Inflation Expectations and all that, the return of inflation is from that point of view, i think the primary drive really for the gold strength is the currency debate. That is the concern, that Central Banks will continue, implementing more measures that are inherently negative. Infusing dollar versus gold is the penetrative the moment given the comments that the u. S. Is experiencing at the moment. Tom very valuable. Valentin marinov, thank you very much. A terrific brief on a monday morning. We will be doing this throughout the day on all the different markets, which are currently with a focus on equities. Christopher grisanti will join us. My am looking forward to speaking with Chris Grisanti about apple and the value stocks and the tech stocks, value stocks if you buy that story. Of then, binky chadha deutsche bank. Always mustwatch. He is wonderful on the volatilities within the market. Please stay with us. Guy johnson in london, im tom keene in new york. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Guy johnson in london, im tom keene in new york. Dell futures up 96. Im watching yields very carefully. The twoyear. 1449 . 13, throughs up recent record highs, 1814. We are really not too close to that time of 2011. Dollar, a churn this morning for the dollar. Later today, David Rubenstein with the leadership of walmart. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Its pretty inspiring the way families redefined the word school this year. Its why, at xfinity, were committed to helping kids keep learning through the summer. And help College Students studying at home stay connected through our university program. Were providing affordable Internet Access to low income families through our internet essentials program. And this summer, xfinity is creating a Virtual Summer camp for kids at home all on xfinity x1. Were committed to helping all families stay connected. Learn more at xfinity. Com education. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. 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Are trying to stop the government from enforcing new guidelines that would Bar International students from entering and staying in the country. Prime minister Boris Johnson government will campaign to urge businesses to prepare for the end of the brexit transition period on december 31. Of survey shows only a quarter of directors say their firms are ready. The government says they will spend more money on border infrastructure. Washington repeatedly will not use the name redskins. This amid mounting pressure from its biggest sponsors to drop the name. A new name will be unveiled today, reported because of trademark issues. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Much. Hanks so it has not moved oil. 39. 77, just under the 40 level. Brent crude, 42. 58. Oil has moved suddenly back to something on the edge of profitability for those who product. He Annmarie Hordern is watching this very closely, particularly the announcement this weekend of adjustments or hopes and dreams within opec . Annemarie, what is the backstory here . Who has the power over opec . Annmarie good morning. The power lies within saudi arabia representing the opec side. And on the friends and family side is russia. They will be talking about whether or not they will keep the 9. 6 output deal off the market for another month, or what the deal called for after june, if they decide to extend it, is to start tapering back those cuts. That means increasing production. We have on. 7 Million Barrels a day. They of us who want to potentially make up some revenues, but there is risk to this. The worry is that if they decide to taper they have been talking about it they start to use the metaphor, considering themselves the central bank of crude is the market to fragile for that at the moment . What we are seeing is the resurgence of coronavirus and what it means for demand. Inventories. Record we have lots of crude in storage. Why on earth do we need more of it . Annmarie its a really good question. Texas data today shows that inventories are 200 higher than a year ago. They are still fighting an uphill battle with all the inventory they built up. A billion barrels, a mountain of it. A stabilized price range where they see these green shoo