Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240712 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

This a while is natural gas. Prices is hanging on the energy markets. If we have those market boards for you, lets bring them up so i can go out for some of the things were watching out for. European stocks gain 1 . Brent gaining to around 40. On a thought there would be an agreement between opec and opec plus. Investors are eyeing a potential extension of record production curbs by opec plus. Looking at natural gas. This is because the spector of egative rates. P. M. I. Coming in a bit better than we thought. 30. 5 instead of the preliminary 28. 7. Now lets get straight to the first word news. Hi. Hi, francine. Unrest continuing across the United States overnight. President trump has come under Harsh Criticism for his response to the demonstrations. He is also not getting the backing of local governors over his offer to send in the military to prevent looting. Thousands ignored curfews last night. In germany, chancellor merkel failed to broker a deal on stimulus yesterday. A delayed plan to send as much as 100 Million Euros to boost the economy. They could not reach a deal after nine hours. They will reconvene today for more talks. The latest run out of brexit talks are set to end on friday without a break through. Bloomberg has learned the e. U. Is pinning its hopes on an intervention by the Prime Minister. Boris johnson set to speak with e. U. Leaders. He is likely to be told of possible concessions if the u. K. Does the same. Brent crude dropped to 40 for he First Time Since march. They agreed to a short extension of output cuts. Saudi arabia is in favor of 13 months. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take by bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. Lets get the latest from the u. S. And protests over the killing of george floyd at the hands to have police are continuing for an eighth consecutive night. Despite curfews in city ace cross the country. Good morning to you. Now the protests for more peaceful overnight. Is this because of stricter and earlier curfews . That seems to be exactly right. Monday evening in new york, i witnessed some of that vandalism and looting. Definitely not part of the peaceful protests. Did not see any of that yesterday. I had been up the entire curfew. Largely what we have been seeing is peaceful protests. Thousands have been coming out to protest, denying the occur five few. It has been done in a peaceful way. We saw some protesters clash with law enforcement. This curfew will be extended through june 7, june 8, june 8 is when new york city is supposed to open up from the lockdown. Yesterday i took a walk around new york just to see exactly what the stores were doing. If stores were not boarded up already, construction workers were outside. The apple store, construction workers were there to board up the entire structure. That is the scene in new york as well as throughout the entire country. Francine there was quite a bit of backlash after the president had a bible in hand at the church. Are republicans still behind the president . That is interesting. Republicans, his own party coming out not approving of this entire scene that took place after he gave that speech. The problem is they tear gassed the protesters so trunch could twuke that church and hold up the bible. Also religious leaders. A prominent Catholic Leader in rome was tweeting about this. No republican governor has accepted the offer to send in the military to combat looting. Greg abbott said texans can take care of texans. Joe biden was in philadelphia yesterday and he also used this as a moment to go after trump. He said had trump opened the bible he could have learned something instead. He said a president should be part of solution, not accelerating it. This is just going to become another massive election issue. Right now the polls we saw yesterday, biden was leading trump and then very worrisome for an incumbent president , a survey earlier this year asked this week asked do you like the direction america is going . 74 of americans said no. Francine thank you so much. Coming up, an exclusive conversation with the former italian Prime Minister. That is at 9 30 a. M. London time and well talk about reopening of borders in europe. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash. Good morning, francine. Planning a farreaching restructuring to fay cost of the 9 billion euro bailout. They will look at spinning off noncore units. It is to reduce costs. The news comes as the carrier suffered a 2. 1 billion euro net loss in the first quarter. A deal with boeing. The travel company said a large part of costs will be compensated over the next few years. The burden is so far at 370 Million Euros. The deal will go to ease the essure on tui, as demand for travel remains week. Women re wear daily reported h is uncertain. Vm francine thank you so much. Unrest continuing across the United States overnight and President Trump has come under Harsh Criticism for his response to the demonstrations. He is not getting the backing of local governments to send in the military to sprenlt looting. Marches and unrest continues. Joining us now is a chief economist at u. B. S. Wealth management. The equity markets are ignoring this. This could change the social contract in america. So i think that whenever we have a period of unrest, it causes relatively shortterm economic disruption. What is more significant here is that when were looking at the economic bounce back, what matters is whether consumers feel confident to go out and spend and whether businesses are confident as well. Of course that is a wide range of fears that need to be overcome, obviously. Fear of unemployment is very significant. Particularly in the United States where unemployment has been very high. Fear over the virus. I think there is now a certain amount of fear around the unrest. I would argue this is something which certainly has some near rm implications around the timing and the force over the conomic bounce back. Francine which means what . It delays it . We need to think over the impact it will have on certain sections on the population. So i think we have to bear in mind that the u. S. Ask a very large economy and it has been a reaction to the virus in quite a disparate way. Parts of the economy are reacting differently. Fear of unemployment, the virus is higher some areas than others. Fear of unrest is not uniform. The unrest has not been everywhere. In term turnovers longer term, i think that our view is what covid19 is doing is accelerating changes that were happening anyway in the global economy. In particular a lot of the fourth round the Industrial Revolution. The Fourth Industrial Revolution as with any Industrial Revolution is something which creates lots of shifts in economic positions and status. That is always very important. Peoples relative status moves around in these situations. We were expecting larger government. We were not expecting income inequality to be a big issue in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. I think covid19 is accelerating the increased role of government in economies and also potentially issues around Income Distribution as well. Francine i dont know whether you have a different economic model on whether President Trump is a twoterm president or whether there is a democrat at the white house come november 4. So our view is that the markets were at if start of the ar were not pricing in sufficiently high risk of a close race. I think the race was closer earlier this year than had been supposed and markets had to adjust and the opinion polls have been an justed. November is over 30,000 levels of elections in the United States at all levels of government. There is an enormous difference between President Trump being reelected but with a democrat house or Vice President being elected but with a republican senate. There is lots of things that we need to consider here. I think at this stage, it is still too soon to be saying exactly what the difference it would be. We dont even know who Vice President biden is likely to nominate as a running mate. I think that will also be important because it will give a of vice he direction president bidens Economic Policy which we dont really have at the moment. I think it is still too soon to be making conclusions on that but i think we must look beyond the president ial race and consider other levels of government because they are going to be very important in the recovery and important to markets. Francine what do you make of the u. S. China trade relationships . There were reports to scale back some of the purchases, u. S. Agricultural products. How much more pressure will that put on Global Recovery . Trade i think was always going to be subdued as we come out of this because we have the synchronized impacts of covid19. Just as supply chains are starting to recover, as china was coming back into production, we then hit with the Global Demand shock of europe and the United States going into lockdown. At was always going to be the tension between the u. S. Seasoned china is going to hold. Because i think it is in both parties interest. What we are seeing of course is companies reconsidering their Global Supply chains. Again, they were going the do this anyway. This is part of the acceleration of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The only thing eled caveat here year, when w last President Trump was imposing trade taxes, you cant shift the supply chain that quickly. The bulk of supply chains dont move that quickly. When were talking about relocating supply chains, yes, i think that is something that happens on a two to fifeyear view. It is going to be difficult to do it on the one to twoyear view. I would expect lots of noise coming out on u. S. China relations. I think that is inevitable but i dont think were necessarily going to get substantial decisions which will have an additional impact on global trate. Francine overall, given these uncertainties, will be more difficult for a Global Recovery to take place post covid19 . Were just starting to relax a lot of lockdowns. It is unclear whether there is a second wave and we will have to go back on lockdown. Is a vshaped recovery out of the question . I think a lot of economists are uncomfortable talking about vs and us. It is a little bit more mixed. If we are talking about growth rates, the Third Quarter is going to be great. Inevitably. Youre going to get a strong bounceback. We have all of these pentup savings. People have been sitting in lockdown unable to spend. Rationing. Wartime when you lift the lockdown, a lot over the savings that have taken place from middle and higher income groups. In the u. S. More broad based. I think that will go out and give you a very good growth rate. After the initial surge and after the pentup saving is spent, we go back to a more mediocre growth rate and go back to trend, maybe below trend dealing with the consequences of unemployment increase and disruption. I think that is very likely to be taking place. In other words we get a growth recovery in the Third Quarter. But we dont recover the level of g. D. P. Before the end of next year. Francine all right. Paul, thank you so much. Paul stays with us and well talk about europe next. After three month ovs lockdown, italians can travel freely again. Well discuss europes reopening next. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london. Today italians can travel freely again. After almost three months of lockdown, residents will be allowed to leave their home regions as countries around europe ease restrictions. Joining us is paul donovan. First of all, are we expecting too much of the e. C. B. . If you look at what economists are predicting ring for tomorrow, they are expecting more from the e. C. B. Is this the right time for them to do more . The e. C. B. s job in the Current Situation is essentially to keep markets relatively stable to allow governments to finance themselves and to make sure the Banking System has the liquidity that it needs to also be able to support the economy. There is not that much that Central Banks policy of itself can do to stimulate growth. This is a fiscal crisis. Governments have taken money away from businesses and people by putting them into lockdown. The e. C. B. s role is really to facilitate here. That may require more action just to get confidence in the market and make sure they remain stable. It is down governments plain and simple whether the e. C. B. Drives recovery. Francine are they doing enough for the countrys most hit by covid19 or are we going to see bailouts at the end or see certain countries needing a lot of external help . Well, i think that the commission proposals, they are groundbreaking because of course it is moving away from the idea that you have got so many votes and therefore you get so much money. More to needbased grants. I think that is like an important precedent to be setting. And we shouldnt underestimate the power of that. Once the precedent is set, it will become easier if money is needed in the future to go down this route again, i would argue. But yes, individual governments may face certain fiscal difficulties but we shouldnt panic about this. The debt levels that were talking about are not that alarming. By historical was 243 of g. D. P. No one in europe is close to that. The u. K. Survived and managed perfectly well with this debt level. I think we can become too alarmist about the debt levels. Im not looking for bailouts particularly. I think it will be continual support as needed as we go into the stimulus phase. Francine you mentioned the u. K. Were in the final rounds of talks between the u. K. And e. U. Over brexit. How likely is it that the u. K. Will ask for an extension . So i think it is very unlikely that the u. K. Is going to ask for an extension. The governments position, the u. K. Governments position is relatively clear. Will we get an agreement . Yes, we probably will but in the grand prags of practically every decision e. U. Has taken since the beginning of time which is that there will be some kind of emergency summit which will say we will come up with a decision by 7 00 this evening and midnight, they are still talking. At 4 00, bleary eyed politicians merge blinking into the cameras and say we have come wake up a deal. Francine thank you. Paul donovan, thank you so much. Finance, economics, politics. This is bloomberg surveillance be a cap we are getting breaking news out of italy. Italys is getting a record 85 billion euros, they put out this auction a day before the ecb, we are expecting more from the ecb. Certainly investors and economists are expecting the ecb to be more bond buying. Italy moments ago getting a record 85 billioneuro order for their 10 year bonds. We have seen a lot of appetite in general for the issuance of european bonds, so i am looking forward to my conversation with matteo renzi, the former of italy. Lets get to first word news in london with leighann gerrans. Unrest is continuing across the United States overnight, and President Trump has come under Harsh Criticism for his response to the demonstrations. He is also not getting the backing of local governments threat to usees the military. It is being planned for charlotte, North Carolina the president wanted it moved due to coronavirus restrictions. Put in place by the states governor. The president did not definitely say the gop were pulling out of charlotte, and did not definitely say which other cities were under consideration. France says there will not be any tax hikes to pay for economic stimulus. Taxes areaire says already high and people are and they are trying to the latest round of brexit talks are set to end friday without a breakthrough. Bloomberg has learned the e. U. Is pinning hopes on the dramatic intervention by the Prime Minister. Boris johnson is set to speak with e. U. Leaders ursula von der leyen this month. There will be possible concessions if the u. K. Does the same. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in im than 120 countries, leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine lets get to our exclusive interview, one of europes worst hit countries is easing coronavirus restrictions today. Italians are now able to leave their home regions. The countrys government hopes that will boost Domestic Travel with tourism accounting for 13 of italys economic output. Im pleased to be joined by the former Prime Minister of italy. Thanks for giving bloomberg a little bit of your time. What does the government now need to do to relaunch the economy in italy . We had a successful option bond. Is it the right time to convince investors that italy is on track . The coronavirus is a very strange situation so e, of course, we are tourism is a part of our economy. But at the same time, as you said seconds ago, we have a lot of hope for our economy in the future. So we need, of course we come back to normality as soon as possible

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