Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close July 13, 2024

Continent, really. Only the u. K. Was closed for their bank holiday. We had a massive rally yesterday, so the dax was up 300 17 points yesterday, up another 143 points today. Stocks overr german the past couple of trading sessions. The cable rate also shooting higher. Pounddollar right now at 1. 2358. Even with those gains in the currency, i will just tell you you still see the ftse up more than 1 . Typically they move in different directions. That shows you the power of this rally. Finally, a stock trading in shares. Tui they have one issue trading in frankfurt and another in london. A big tour guide and airline operator. They had been absolutely crushed in the pandemic, but over the last couple of days, a massive rally. Today they are up 56 as germany says it is going to reopen International Travel and prepare for something of a vacation season. Over 1 billion in market cap in this one trading session. Vonnie really pretty phenomenal. Lets bring in our next guest. Frances president Emmanuel Macron putting forward a bill to support the automobile industry. We have with us billion chillingworth, rathbone chief investment officer. We have with us julian chillingworth, rathbone chief investment officer. How long before europe is stabilized . Julian i think we will obviously continue to get not just statements from government officials and central bankers, but obviously they are putting their money where their mouth is. Ofhave had so far in excess 15 trillion worth of monetary forfiscal measures, trillion dollars odd in just trillion oddes, 4 in just qe alone. What i think is key, and it is interesting today, that the market is possibly thinking now we are going to see a vshaped recovery, and the pickup very quickly in economic activity, but i would question that and say to you, later is a good example, where social distancing, i was talking to someone only yesterday who was telling me that to get to johannesburg, they would have to pay three times the price they would have had to pay at the beginning of march to get there. They probablye got to fly with 2 3 less people. So profitability for airlines is not going to be something that is suddenly back in the picture. Vonnie more broadly for sovereigns, do you see spreads coming in . How much more support will be needed . Julian youve got a Massive Qe Program going on, and yes, we will see spreads coming up a bit more. I think that for the debt market you are going to have to see playing across the sovereigns, across duration, but also looking for those companies that will come through this crisis in terms of corporate debt, and possibly see their spreads close in. But there will be a lot of companies, particularly in the retail and leisure sectors that do not make it through, despite government assistance. That is where i think we are very careful. We are going to hear from in a little bit. He has said the fiscal recovery tool in the eu, the Fiscal Recovery Fund and the eu is going to play a critical role. Do you think we saw a turning point with the merkelmacron agreement, even though you still got the frugal four . At least youve got germany and france agree and we are going to give a lot of money, these 500 billion euros to the countries that need it. Julian i think it is great that they could agree, and that is a real step forward. I think that, dare i say, the devil is going to be in the detail. You already mentioned that, as you say, the frugal four are pushing for loans, not grants. Experience, we are dealing with these eu creations. It takes a lot of time and a lot of long nights in rooms trying to get down to agreeing. Think it could be some while before you get this up and running, and between now and then, youve got the Italian Economy that is desperately in need of help, and therefore, i wonder whether or not you are still going to see some pain in bond markets around europe. No longer smokefilled rooms, right . Julian no longer. Matt julian chillingworth, i think that is all the time weve got right now. Things very much for joining us. Really appreciate your insight today. Julian chillingworth, the cio of rathbone. Vonnie up next, we are speaking with Michael Oleary of ryanair, once again putting its hand in the German Governments pockets. This is bloomberg. Vonnie welcome back to bloomberg markets, the european close. We have french president macron presenting a plan to support the automobile industry. Some pressures running high. Temperatures are running high on these supports, particularly in the airline industry. For example, ryanair saying it will appeal germanys plan to bailout lufthansa, saying the bailout will distort the market. Ceo Michael Oleary says, whenever there is a crisis, lufthansas first reaction is to put its hand in the governments pockets. Joining us now is Michael Oleary, ryanair ceo. I just read out a statement to the effect that you say left anza always puts its hand in the you say lufthansa always puts its hand in the governments pockets, and he will appeal this bailout. Will review where will you appeal to . Untill we have to wait the German Government approves this. They will also be speaking to the swiss government, the austrian government, and the , all of whichment are giving up state aid like a drunken uncle. Ryanair, we all compete with of tons of in with lufthansa in the german market. They are receiving enormous payroll from the German Government. It allows them to sell below cost ticket prices for the next five or six years. Vonnie vonnie i do want to point out i got in touch with a lufthansa spokesperson, who wrote, we will not comment on mr. Olearys statement. Michael they wont even defend it. They are too embarrassed to be taking up all of the state subsidies. Vonnie i wont make an interpretation, but very happy you feel like doing so. In light of this bailout, would you take on extra slots, or will you be getting out of germany completely . Michael in ryanair and our , we continue to compete with lufthansa. Easyjet, we are trying to compete in the german market. We dont receive state aid. We dont receive bailouts every time something goes wrong. It is grossly unfair under the european rules that we now face competition for the next five or withears left anza, lufthansa, whoth have filled their satchels with state aid. Matt isnt there a tacit understanding that those rules arent in existence to create a level Playing Field . That is into this kind of industry, otherwise you wouldnt talia, deutsches left anza deutsche lufthansa. Michael its a good point, but it is completely untrue. British airways is not receiving u. K. Tate aid from the government, nor is ryanair. Ryanair is the Biggest Airline in europe. We are receiving the same payroll support, but that is enough. Have all ofd to these subsidies showered upon us like lufthansa. Here you have the German Government bailing out lufthansa , the french government bailing out klm air france. All of the European Countries saying you must obey by the we we cant pretend cant contend with 50 of state aid. They are quite happy to break the rules when it comes to lufthansa and air france klm, but the days of flag carriers are over. [indiscernible] alitalia. Fly. Hey fly ryanair becauset fly alitalia it is always late and overpriced. Is the onlynsa choice, but if they were to fail, how long would it take for ryanair to fill those domestic slots . Matt about a week michael about a week. Lufthansa only has a monopoly on the german domestic market because they were allowed ofbuy air berlin, in breach every noncompetition rule that exists within europe. They were allowed to merge with it monopoly situation in the german domestic marketplace. They deliver a third rate service at very high prices. But they monopolize frankfurt and stuttgart and munich, etc. Ryanair cant provide real competition in the german market. The monopoly in germany, coronavirus, the first thing they do is turn to government and say give us 9 billion. We want 9 billion, but we also want you to shut up. You are not even allowed to ask a question. Just give us your money and be quiet. Thats the kind of monopoly power that lufthansa has. It distorts competition for the next four or five years. We all now have to try to with 9 against lufthansa billion of ammunition in their us. Hel to dump all over it is grossly unfair, and it distorts competition. Of theat success European Union has been the deregulation of the flag carriers. Vonnie you just said it would take you about a week to fill some of those domestic slots in germany. You might get the opportunity because we understand the eu is going to ask lufthansa to roll back some of its slots, particularly in munich and frankfurt. Will you take on those slots . Michael but they dont. What they actually do is give you one slot at 5 00 p. M. On a friday and 11 00 on a tuesday. Impressionou the that they are opening up slots, but the slots are the morning slots. They wont be the slots that are allowing any other competitor to create the schedule. We are taking seats on the board, but we have to be silent partners. We wont actually create a schedule. They said last week we are giving klm, a small dutch billions, but they have to commit to reforms. What is the reform . Klm has agreed to be Carbon Neutral by 2030 emojis exactly the same commitment all of the European Airlines have made in the last year or two. So this is all just government pr. It is not serious. It is not credible. The German Government dont want any real opposition to lufthansa. They just want to protect a monopoly that overcharges german consumers. It is the european consumer who suffers in all of this. Vonnie right, and we are just now seeing a headline saying that france is pledging just over 8 billion euros to support the auto sector, so this is going to be through a variety of industries seeing problems. Let me ask you something a little closer to home. Apparently, ryanair owes about one billion euros to travelers not able to travel through june. You have said he will try to fly from july. Are you going to be able to get those customers refunds . Matt sure michael sure. We are already 1 4 of the way through. Weeks ago, we have already refunded just over 300 million. We will be up to 400 million by the end of may. We are working our way through an unprecedented act log of refunds. We are running 1000 flights a day. The european government is lifting all of the travel restrictions. If you have a lot of customers, they will move their focus into july through september, and that will help us illuminate the backlog and provide cash for those remaining customers who want refunds. But all of europe is dealing with historic backlog of refunds because of the government imposed things. From my wife just flew spain to berlin after being stuck there for a couple of months. Because on lufthansa she couldnt get a ryanair flight. It was shoulder to shoulder. The plane was completely sold out, and of course, people are sneezing and coughing alltime. Security in frankfurt apparently very touchyfeely, not Wearing Masks, which i found shocking. Are you concerned that if we get another wave of this coronavirus, it is going to absolutely destroy the industry and bring it to a standstill right after you start up again . Michael i am sure she also paid a ludicrously high airfare. We have said we are flying on the first of july, but every passenger on board is required to wear a mask. All cabin crew will wear a mask. We expect airports to require all passengers. Airports in asia have mask wearingthat mandates in airports and train stations and aircraft actually effectively eliminate the spread of covid19. I think the lufthansa flights should be Wearing Masks. It is the way to allow air travel to return. Evidence in asia suggests there isnt a second wave coming, as long as we all make masks mandatory. You are infamously blunt. You are a man who says it like it is. We hear all of this talk from as it is such an incredible air filtration system , but in reality, everyone gets sick after flying in planes. How are you going to stop the spread of a virus . Nobody gets a cold when you go to the supermarket or the office. It happens when you travel. How do you stop the spread of a virus in that kind of environment . Michael first, youve got to travel more on ryanair. You are clearly speaking about your past travel experience on lufthansa. No one gets sick on ryanair flights. Everybody wears masks. If everybody is Wearing Masks, you reduce the risk of the spread of covid and the other droplets by about 90 . Is the way forward. Yes, we use hand sanitizer. Everyone will be observing some sort of social distancing. But social distancing is impossible in airports entering stations, and that is why we are going back flying ryanair from july 1, 1000 or 2000 routes across europe. But everyone will be Wearing Masks or you wont be allowed on board. Vonnie the european transport commissioner told us last week that most of these airlines have military grade air conditioning systems, so i presume this is the case with you, too. Talk to us about the return to air for the max. When is it anticipated now . Michael we are much more optimistic. I think boeing has been keeping us fully updated. We are an active dialogue with the european air safety agency. We think the tests will take place in america sometime in july, and i think we are reasonably confident now that the aircraft will return to service probably in north america in september, early october. We receive lou we believe we will receive our first delivery of the aircraft just past christmas. We have about 175 option aircraft about 12 months late, but we are pretty confident that the max will return to service in north america in q3, and that we will get our first deliveries in q4. We are really excited by these aircraft. But offer 40 more seats use 16 less fuel. Bust,e seen airlines go thomas cook and others. Others will be bailed out, but the best way we can respond is to bring new aircraft that offer us lower costs and offer a path to lower fares to customers across europe, including matt and his wife, who will now be fine with us on ryanair and not on that nasty subsidized German Airline viviana urban airline. Vonnie and another member of the family, as i understand, very soon. Will anyone be joining you in these actions . Will ryanair have any partners going up in various jurisdictions . Michael im sure we will. The message has been that we dont want to do collective action or classaction. These legal cases are much challenginged off the European Union on their own behalf. So we can be confident, that staten germany, eight threatens easyjets survival in a number of german spaces. Easyjet has a large base in berlin. How does it compete with lufthansa receiving 9 billion in state aid if easyjet is not getting a penny . It is vastly unfair. We think they will emerge in many ways weaker. Air france klm will get 10 billion in state aid. Alitalia, who hasnt made money and 75 years, will receive state aid. It is clearly unfair and against the rules. Vonnie thank you very much for ceo,time today, ryanair coming to us from dublin. And of course, thanks to our Bloomberg Radio listeners as well. Checking u. S. Markets, we have been seeing a nice rally this morning. It is the first trading day of the week. That really continues, well above 3000 on the s p 500. Matt . Are we in europe, matt we are looking at european market. The dax up 120 points. The risk on rally continues. This is bloomberg. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Staying connected your way youre just a tap away from personalized support on xfinity. Com. Get faster internet speeds with a click. Order xfi pods to your home in a snap. Or change your Xfinity Services with just a touch. All in one place. Youre only seconds away from all of that on xfinity. Com. Faster than a call. Easy as a tap. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Vonnie live from new york, i am vonnie quinn with matt miller in berlin. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Euro area markets continue to face severe challenges. The ecb Vice President says the central bank has enough tools to support you we have the flexibility in the short term, not only in terms of the asset purchase, but in terms of the timing of the purchases. Vonnie joining is now on the phone from frankfurt is paul gordon, who heads western europes coverage of Central Banks for bloomberg news. Delighted to have you. What is the situation on the European Central now . It used to be we knew who were the doves, who are the hawks, who the austerity Monetary Policy makers were, but in times of pandemics that has all changed, right . Paul they have all shifted to the dovish side. The relative positions remain the same. There are unlikely to be some concerns in the ecb should one of the issues come up, which has been blocked by the French Central Bank governor, which is to ease the conditions on the Pandemic Program even more so you can buy more italian debt and potentially less german debt. That is quite a new proposal. It is an interesting one. Im not sure it will carry much traction with the governing council members. To me the most interesting thing is the German High Court ruling. How is that going to affect what is the ecb going to do about that . How will they answer if germanys highest court does not allow the bundesbank to participate in qua

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