When we reopen, that is the time to stimulate. How do you see the policy effort changing in the months to come, adapting, larry . Larry i am not here to negotiate, but i will simply say this. Had a set ofmp has policies that worked very well before this pandemic. The first three years plus. Indeed, in january and february the economy was growing at 3 or better. I think that he wants to extend a lot of the ideas. He wants to be a Free Enterprise economy. He wants to reward people for their success and their initiative and their efforts. He has talked about from time to time, talked and tweeted about payroll tax holidays, he has talked about Capital Gains taxes. He has talked about tourism, restaurants, traveling deductions that might work. We have talked about capital and business expensing. There have been covid related adjustments, whether you are a large factory in detroit or a small town in the heartland a restaurant in the small town in the heartland. All of that, every nickel of that should be completely expensed, 100 percent deduction, so people will not have to pay extra for that and open the door. We have talked about fair trade agreements. We talked about on shoring. We will continue to that. A lot of people have learned we probably went way too far in our off shoring of factories, either manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. President trump has talked about making it much easier to come back home to america. That is a smattering of the policy ideas that he has put out there. We have got to negotiate with the hill. That will come into host in due course. Month,a reopening jonathan. It will spill into june in phases. We have seen the federal guidelines have come down. The states are doing the same. We had Governor Abbott of texas yesterday. With theen in meetings president and the governors. That is a big plus for the economy. We have to open safely and that get people back to work, and i think the temporary layoff will show that they will go back to work. Then we have to move ahead and make sure that the incentive structure of this economy remains intact so we can have the bluecollar boom that we had. So we can have the entrepreneurship, so we can have the fair trade and the energy independence. Themes, and ipian think that is where the president is going to move. Jonathan i know you want to talk about trade. When it comes to reopening, i want to understand i know you are optimistic whether you have done any Contingency Planning for a second wave and other shut down. Are you doing that Contingency Planning now . Larry yes, we are. It is a subject that comes up. Im not going to go into detail. It is outside my lane. I have talked to ambassador burks on that ambassador birx on that, dr. Fauci. One of the senior people in that group, i ask that person, what happens . Right now the virus numbers are flattening out. That is a really good thing. That means we can reopen this economy. So i asked this person what happens if you get a jump back up in the virus numbers, and the response was simply, look, we wont have to reshut down because first of all, we know more, we have more experience, and second of all, we are much better equipped with the right tools. President trump deserves some credit for putting together a massive infrastructure, whether it is testing or face masks or gallons, running the whole or gowns, running the whole gamut. I am an optimist. I think the governors and the mayors are well aware of the safety needs, as we reopen. But when we do reopen, that is going to get this economy a tremendous boost, and we will see that in the summer and autumn quarters, spilling into 2021. 2021 could be a fabulous year if we keep the right policies in place. Isathan larry, i hope that the case. I truly do. I know you want to talk about trade, so let me give you the opportunity to do so. When it comes to the administrations trade stance, you mention supply train supply chain repatriation. Will you be looking at companies that repatriate their supply chains . Dory yes, i think we will it by creating incentives. It is not a matter of punishing, it is a matter ofs incentivizing. On shoring is a very important theme. Coming back to america, i think we have learned too much emphasis on supply chains overseas, too much emphasis is not safe and not reliable. And not Good Business practices. I do not want to unveil or get ahead of our own policy process, but the president is very keen on on shoring. There are many ways to do that. Are you rethinking your relationship with the Chinese Communist party . Larry well, i dont think we ever stopped thinking about it. Know, froml, as you reports today, ambassador lighthizer, secretary mnuchin met with the vice premier of china. It was a very constructive meeting. The communique, if you will, was very positive. China continues to tell us that they have every intention of meeting the requirements and the implementations of the deal that was signed formally last winter. It seems like a thousand years ago, but it was only a couple months ago. They are a little behind on commodity purchases. That may be a function of market and economic conditions, but the vice premier said they are pledged to continue, including remedies for intellectual property theft and related measures. Those talks seemed to go well and were constructive. However, the chinese relationship is complex, then we know that the virus originated in china. We are investigating, the u. S. Government, the intelligence agencies, the national, state department, etc. , are carefully investigating what happened and what did not happen. What may have happened and what actually happened. China has been not transparent. A lot of people are concerned. I saw this with the president at the g7 video teleconference meeting a couple of weeks ago, and the other World Leaders felt the same way. They will be held accountable, jonathan. They will be held accountable. When the final studies are in. All i can say this morning is the trade relationship, and it is going to be a pretty good deal, a lot of exports coming out of that when the economy has recovered. The trade relationship appears to be on track. Like a lot ofds talk, larry. I have heard a lot of talk over the last week about this, about Holding China accountable. Can we talk about accountability . How does the United States hold china accountable . By doing what . Larry jonathan, i dont want to disappoint you or create otherwise emotional upset, but im not going into details about this. This is National Security stuff and we will have to leave it at that. Jonathan i understand it is a delicate topic. Quite clearly, the United States and other countries do not trust the Chinese Communist party. I am not sure how much weight we should put on a Statement Released overnight about working toward this phase i agreement, because clearly the United States is looking to hold china accountable. How can i reconcile those two things, two countries working on a phase one trade deal, two countries that does not trust each other, and one country that wants to punish the other . Larry without accepting your premises there, you put out quite a lot. I will just say the relationship with china is always a complex relationship. It covers trade, he covers other economic matters. It covers it covers other economic matters. It covers National Security matters, espionage matters, Cyber Security matters or the lack thereof. It covers on shoring and off shoring matters and is a complex relationship. Problems in one end does not necessarily mean everything stops. But President Trump has said any number of times, they will be held accountable, we continue to investigate the problems , andding the coronavirus the lack of transparency. We are trying to get to the bottom of what actually happened in china. Iose efforts are ongoing, and believe the president in the oval Office Yesterday said the next couple of weeks, we are probably going to have a lot more information to share. Jonathan larry, i look forward to getting the answers and more parity from you. More clarity from you. Larry kudlow, i appreciate your time and i hope you and yours are doing well. Larry kudlow, the National EconomicCouncil Director will suffer from new york city, that does it for me. Thank you very much, and i hope you are safe and at home as well. The worst payrolls report we have ever seen, and lets hope it is the worst we ever see, and lets hope in the months to come we see some record breaking reports going the other way. From new york, this is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, i am vonnie quinn, along with guy johnson from london. This friday, this is bloomberg markets. Nonfarm payrolls this friday, we are not seeing much reaction on the stock market because we were expecting a that number. 20,500,000 people out of work now. We see a rally because we had some good earnings. 1. 4 , the nasdaq up 1 . Stocks like uber being raised at goldman, morgan stanley, guggenheim, more signs that the economy is getting refer it better reopening, although honestly, who is to say what is to come . Crude oil at 24. 57 a barrel. We are not seeing strength for the euro but we are seeing strength for sterling. Guy absolutely. The london market is closed today. It is ve day. The u. K. Is having a holiday. That means the equity markets are closed. The dax is up 1. 4 at the moment, up on the session, it up onust up around. 5 the week. It is fascinating to see volatility coming down, as you say, vonnie come on a day we have had such a historic number coming in the form of the u. S. Payroll number. It is a matter of all of us digesting the economic damage being done and done deliberately. We are waiting for a moodys rating review. Keep an eye on btpss. There is a lot of pressure swirling around europe at the moment, and you wonder if that centrifugal force will kick out some countries. We are not there yet, and the ecb in the form of Christine Lagarde reiterated that she would do everything to fulfill her mandate. Brent crude going up by 2. 5 . The big number is that payroll figure. Jobs lost in0,000 march, the Unemployment Rate more than tripled to 14. 7 . The Labor Department is saying because of quirks and how reporting is done, the figure should be five Percentage Points higher. That would be 19. 7 . It is not as if we did not know this was coming, but that is still eyepopping. Stripping details include things like disturbing details include things like Hourly Earnings going up. The reason that happens is it reflects the substantial job loss among lower paid workers. So there are disturbing dynamics at work. Lets get into it with allie wolf. Acting likearket the economy is about to reopen when there are millions, multiple tens of millions of people out there with no job, likely noconfidence, and even if confidence does begin to return, it is always a lagging indicator for when people actually spend any again. Ali thank you for having me. This report was historic but not a surprise because we have had jobless claims reports for the last few weeks. If you look at the share of workers furloughed so they are likely to come back as we reopen the economy. 80 . N january to over we see a lot of temporary layoffs in this report from april. Inequality,conomic is there anything the treasury can do to target those that are unfairly disadvantaged by the sudden stop in the economy, which was dictated, obviously, by necessity . Ali we have really seen the tugofwar with the virus and the policymakers when it comes to economic growth. We saw in the march report that the hospitality sector was crushed. When we look at the report that came out today, we are seeing job losses spread across a wide range of sectors, not just the lowest incomes. The focus needs to continue to be, do what it takes to hold baseline, make sure that the money gets effectively and quickly into the hands of the businesses that needed the most. Right, ali continues with us. Thanks for joining us. Tonight on Bloomberg Television get vonnie, hopefully will sorry, the delays are causing us havoc today. Hopefully allie will be coming back. We will try to fix or audio sin. Wall street week is coming up, some fantastic guests going to be joining david westin larry summers. The to the moment for links for the moment to the biden campaign. And kathy would will be joining us as well, the cio looking forward to catching up with that program. You can catch wall street week eth david westin at 6 00 tonight. This is bloomberg. Guy i am guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. This is bloomberg markets. Lets get more into what is happening with u. S. Economy. Before the break we were talking with allie wolf. Lets carry on that conversation. Thanks for sticking with us. The number we got today is incredibly bad, postsecond world war low in terms of employment, a real hit for the u. S. Economy. My question is how quickly will these people be reemployed . Normally in an economic cycle, we would expect unemployment to drop 1 per year. Is this cycle going to be different . Can these jobs come back more quickly . Of i think there is a lot hope as we start to reopen the economy that all the businesses with go back and open up social distancing measures and that we would get closer to normal. We have seen from the states that are early to open up, they are still just reticent, both from the business and consumer sides. As we research the Unemployment Rate, we think we will still end the year at a 10 level. How quickly do you think how long will it take us to get back to a 2019 level, to those historic lows we had in terms of unemployment . Are we going to have to live with a structurally higher level of unemployment as a result of fear of the virus, fear of what could happen next, social distancing, the impact and the legacy of jobs that are going to be lost . At the moment, it kind of appears as if the damage that has been done to the u. S. Consumer is limited. I assume that is because of things that the government is doing at the fed is doing. I also suspect underneath that there is some damage being done the confidence, both in terms of Health Confidence and economic confidence. Ali exactly. The virus really determines the fate. At first we thought a vshaped recovery was likely, but the longer this goes on, we noconfidence has been battered both by the Financial Impact we know that confidence has been battered both by the Financial Impact and the the personal savings rate jumped from 8 to 15 in one month. The highest level since the 1970s. We think this is going to look more like a bumpy swish rather than a rapid vshaped recovery. Vonnie you have a background in housing economics and brokerage economics. We are seeing that sector decimated, too. Financial services, which include that segment of the nomy, lost 262,000 262,000, mainly in leasing and interesting about the Housing Markets. The fear was that the Housing Market was going to zero. We found home sales went down 50 . Everyone expected that. At now for april, it is just 30 to 40 . I know i said just, but it is better than april and march. Everyone has been forced to work from home and look around at the space that maybe they have learned to hate. We think housing is going to be one of the better sections sectors to grow in this economy. That is important because housing represents 50 15 of gdp and it can impact other industry. Vonnie how can people buy houses and sell houses if there is no work . Doesnt that presuppose that we do get back to the type of Unemployment Rates we have been seeing . Ali it is the craziest thing ever because i agree with you, when you look at the Unemployment Rate, we are nearly at 23 , and yet we are still seeing some home sales happen. I think that is because we do still have a large share of the workforce that is working, and if they have enough confidence to continue to go out, we know that demographics, millennials are having kids. They are looking to move. We know Mortgage Rates make housing an attractive option compared to rentals. At least on the builder step aside, there is not much supply, so anything they have they are able to sell quite quickly today. I am nervous that that could go away if the duration of the unemployment, and we do not see people coming back, that will be an issue. The problem i have with all of this is that at the moment we find ourselves in a situation where we have a great deal of people, a great many people sort of unemployed but still with purchasing power. That is because of the safety nets provided by the states, by the federal government, and by effect. At some point these are going to run out, and the purchasing power has the potential to evaporate. It feels at the moment we are in that wily coyote moment, where we have gone over the cliff, but we have not dropped yet. It, yes, and as we look at we do think that the may report that comes out for nonfarm payrolls will continue to see losses. Weve seen losses into may. So we are seeing uber and airbnb doing some corporate layoffs just this week. So we are watching for right now we are holding steady, a backlog of demand. There is definitely a concern that things could go lower from here. Guy thanks very much indeed for joining us. Ali wolf. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york city, i am vonnie quinn, along with guy in london. Etfs time for our weekly friday segment. Companies taking aim at coronavirus vaccines about treatments, some of the top performers. The exposures to these different stocks has caused a wide range etfs. Rns among biotechs james, biotech stocks have been one of the best sector plays, but what are the best etfs to aim for in this market . James it has all been about big tech and b