Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 20240713 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 20240713

Here as well. Looking at continental europe, spain and france are two countries the hardest hit by the coronavirus along with italy. They are set to ease lockdowns. We have Pedro Sanchez expecting to announce the loosening of measures after the weekly Cabinet Meeting which takes place later today. Later today also, france will be presenting the governments blueprint to the National Assembly on tuesday afternoon, and that should outline how they plan to ease peoples confinement as well. Is the original epicenter of the outbreak on the continent that will soon allow people to leave their homes for the first time in weeks, and that should mean they will be joining other countries including the likes of germany and austria in relaxing of shops to array open up including tattoo studios. In the u. K. , Boris Johnson saying the British Public should keep on obeying lockdown rules to avoid a disasters second wave of this outbreak here as well, coming as the number of recorded deaths from coronavirus in hospitals fell to 360, the lowest daily figure since arch 28th. In this region, japan weighing they need to extend the state of emergency there. And balance that with a fall in new covid19 cases with fears that easing restrictions too soon might lead to the very explosion in the infections that authorities had sought to avoid so that is what we have an philippines also may soon start to ease some of the lockdowns they had in place since the middle of march. We have the president saying the two month lockdown will only be modified as they actually weigh up what happens in terms of if they lift it totally, and what that does to new infections. Guys. Shery lots of concerns about that second wave of infections, right . What sort of warnings are we getting about potentially another bout of new cases . Rishaad the World Health Organization is concerned about the rising number of cases in latin america, africa, and some asian countries, as well as also eastern europe. What we have of course is the winter coming to the Southern Hemisphere. Shot now and also beware of this also bringing up virus in the Southern Hemisphere as well and saying, at the moment, this is the director general, saying that pandemic is far from over and the countries should do all they can to avoid a second wave, put in the right policies now, and also be vigilant as they try to ease lockdowns as well. Who very worried that this could reemerge in the Southern Hemisphere, and then later on this year, find a second or third wave in certain countries to find themselves in the Northern Hemisphere as well during the autumn and perhaps into the winter as well. Rishaad salamat up in hong kong. Thank you very much for that. Still ahead on daybreak asia, the latest indication on the impact of the virus and japans economy when it releases jobs data. We will analyze those figures. Haidi up next, Global Investment victoria fernandez is our guest as investors look ahead to the feds policy decision. This is bloomberg. Karina you are watching daybreak asia. I am Karina Mitchell with the first word headlines. Japan is adding 14 more countries to its entry ban list as coronavirus cases rise. The affected nations include russia and saudi arabia and people who have been in any of them for two weeks for heading to japan will not be allowed in. The government had already banned 70 countries from entry. Tokyo tries to stem the fallout from the infections. Japan has more than 13,000 virus cases and 364 fatalities. In other virus developments in asia, the Indian Government may guarantee almost 40 billion of loans to Small Businesses and made plans to reopen the economy after a 40 day lockdown. Indonesia to allocate 1. 5 billion to help people left without a job by the virus. In the philippines says it may soon ease virus restrictions that have been in place since the middle of march. New zealand is entering the post lockdown world, reporting five new coronavirus cases with some of the worlds most stringent restrictions. The government says there have been no new Community Transmissions and the worst scenario seems to have been avoided. Some businesses are being allowed to reopen but the government warns social distancing will stay for the foreseeable future. It is not and cannot be a return to precovid19 life. That day will come but it is not here yet. To get there, our team needs to have zero tolerance for cases to complete our goal of eliminating the virus. Karina global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. The fed holds its latest policy meeting on wednesday in an environment of economic crisis and soaring unemployment. Officials will have to decide whether to take the unprecedented move of bringing negative policy rates to americas shores. We will be discussing the fed policy decision, not to mention the other centralbank decisions this week, including the bojs broadly in line with estimate decision that came out on monday, just increasing asset purchases, not to mention ecbs centralbank policy decision as well. Right. Lets get a quick check on how markets are trading at the moment. We are seeing pressure for u. S. Futures, not to mention japanese futures, this after japanese markets rose to a six week high. We had financials leading the gains. Surprisingly positive data coming out of Deutsche Bank when it comes to japan, as i mentioned, we have the boj policy decision oddly in line with estimates. Stepping up their stimulus on monday and buying as many government bonds as needed according to the boj. We will be discussing this and much more after the break. This is bloomberg. Shery the coronavirus pandemic has shaken the world with potentially profound effects on geopolitics. Eurasia Group Founder and president takes a look at president xis mishandling of the outbreak and domestic polarization in china. Internally, the fact that xi jinping did cover this out for the first month caused enormous opposition to him domestically that they needed to battle. This was by far the biggest crisis he has faced, just like other leaders around the world, and of course, since then, their economy is restarting and there was tremendous quarantine, a lot of pride around that, but there was still a lot of domestic opposition on top of that. Internationally, the chinese are the economy that is restarted and that is good for supply chains for them, but they are also increasingly having angers pointed at them, especially by the United States and if it turns out the United States and china are in a cold war on the back of xi jinpings mishandling of this, again, a big crisis. You know, i see a lot of media around the world that says chinas economy is in best shape coming out of this given the state of authoritarian capitalism and surveillance. All true. We could should recognize xi jinping is in a more difficult position now than any point since he started meeting and leaders i have been talking to increasingly question whether it is clear that he would get a a lot ofm in 2022 so domestic polarization in china right now. Thats fascinating. I thought he was president for life. Do you think that is in question . Does that make him work dangerous make him more dangerous . certainly, when he declared himself this core leader and ended the term limits in china, that was a very big change from the way we thought about this group of faceless lead bureaucrats that always ruled by consensus, moving from that to a more russia style authoritarian leadership. Well, theres a lot of backlash, and again, the scale of this crisis is pretty big. I dont think the story has been written yet. Knows that jinping he has not handled this well on a bunch of france. You remember the initial whistleblower, the one that was punished and eventually caught the coronavirus and died. The Chinese Government eventually apologized for having mistreated him and is now considering him a hero. You never see the chinese leadership do Something Like that. That happened on xi jinpings watch. There has been a lot of that over the last few months and i think the point is that as much as it seems from the west that china is stronger now than they have been historically, lets keep in mind this is also a really bad reception for china. The economy will be harder to manage, harder to keep everyone in full employment, harder to get supply and demand back to where it was. That is a problem for xi jinping, that he never thought he was going to have coming into this year and there are a lot of people inside the country, leaders in the country that feel like his style of leadership has actually made china internationally and domestically more vulnerable. Lets go across the border as it were to north korea. What is your take on what is going on there . We have not heard anything out of there for a a while. Strange that there are always rumors about kim jongun and they have not done anything like to show him to us to dispel the rumors. It is completely unusual. We have had two weeks before hes been seen. Theres all sorts of speculation that he is dead. No useful on the ground intelligence. If he was fine, they would be saying something, so at the very least, i think this is a major theth scare and we saw chinese Doctors Network sent over the weekend to provide support and we obviously get some intelligence for the Chinese Government. The point is that if it turns out that kim jongun is no more, theres no obvious and easy Succession Plan and what we are all talking about, his sister, but the idea of a woman running of anathema tod north Korean Society and governments governance. The idea that somebody not in kim jonguns family is also inconceivable given the mythology around how leadership has come directly from the heavens and has been bequeathed through hereditary succession. And, youittle dicey know, if it turned out that there was in any way a fight with a 25 overpower ands nukes significant military capacity and the balance, we would see chinese intervention to ensure it did not break down. That was ian bremmer. Now awaiting centralbank decisions from the Federal Reserve and the european. A lot of pressure on global Central Banks to do more. Joining us as the Global Investments chief market strategist, victoria fernandez. Theres a lot of pressure for Central Banks to do more. A lot of pressure on policymakers. Its costing governments in the world to do more. Will all this stimulus effort actually help Global Economy for avoiding that dreaded w shaped recovery . Helpam not sure if it will avoid it. What i think it is going to do is allow the economy to come back a little bit quicker then maybe it otherwise would. Anticipationot of we would have that recovery for a while. Concern on the speed that people will come back. With that in mind, i think Central Banks are trying to find a way to help things happen more quickly but i dont think it is going to diminish the severity of what we are seeing at this point in time as far as corporations are concerned. Definitely put a floor in on the markets. With their facilities they put in place. We saw the bank of japan put a floor in with their bond buying and i anticipate we will hear from the ecb this week. When we are in earnings season but really difficult right now given the uncertainty globally of what to watch out for in these analyst calls. What will you be waiting to hear . Typically, we would be looking at expectations for the quarter. What does that tell us about the coming quarter and their projections coming forward . Because of the economic shutdown, it is difficult to take these numbers from the First Quarter even the numbers we will get from the Second Quarter and extrapolate that out for the rest of the year in the beginning of 2021. It is a very difficult situation. We have seen all of the Companies Pulling guidance right now, saying they dont have the ability to give back what they think will happen Going Forward so you have to take a step back and even though we should be looking at fundamentals every earnings season, i think taking a look at the Balance Sheets this quarter is going to be one of the most important things we should do. Like . Oes cash flow look do they have themselves in a position where they can have the Global Economy, out of an economic shutdown and go to the other side . That will be the key for companies Going Forward. That was the Global Investments chief market strategist. Staying withandez us. Asset managers are grappling with the impacts of the virus pandemic. Funds face big changes and challenges to their Business Continuity plans and major market volatilities. Douglas flint is warning managers should expect their capital to perform worse than expected in the foreseeable future. Earlier, he told us who he thinks stands to lose the most. It is clearly very difficult. Those who are suffering most include those who are retired. Their pool to add to of savings. It is now are remunerated in them much more than it used to be, whether its Interest Rates are virtually nothing on savings accounts or dividends, which has been significantly curtailed in the current crisis. Areng said that, businesses in difficulty in terms of their cash flow and their funding. They have no choice but to cut their dividend. Companies that are seeking support from the public press cannot, in my view, in any degree of credibility, pay money out to shareholders while seeking public support so i think for those companies that can pay a dividend, and we were very fortunate, very pleased, and it says something about resilience but we were pleased we were able to recommend to shareholders that we do pay our final dividend because we have the financial strength to do so. I think companies that have the strength to do so showed and those that put their Business Model and therefore the jobs of their colleagues at risk should not pay dividends. They should make their Balance Sheet more resilient and they should prepare to resume dividends once they have got the Business Model in the new world post covid operating successfully again. Lessons learned. Part of theafraid, consequence of this crisis that those who relied upon their capital performing in the way that they expected are going to be disappointed that it will be less than they hoped for in the shortterm, but hopefully, the measures that are taken by government, Central Banks, and the companies themselves, means that in the long term, it will be a better position for those who have their capital invested in the markets. Pensions, insurance products, and their savings. What does this mean for consolidation in the Asset Management this year . Does it accelerate the movement . Things will be on hold until there is a greater clarity in what is going to happen after in terms oflt with moving to the next stage. I mean, it would not be possible at this stage to do due diligence. The Business Model and revenue and cost model Going Forward. I am sure that when this is over across all businesses, but certainly in our sector, people will look at the benefits of diversification having a greater geographic distributional, having greater scale to be able to absorb the cost space in a lower revenue model if markets stay at levels lower than they were before we went into this. Then yes, i am sure there will be some consolidation that takes place in order to adjust Business Models but i think we are well ahead of that being possible to do or even to be contemplated. Our responsibility in the moment workforce,sure our our well looked after that we are agile in the way we we deal with them and also respecting the fact that many peoples family circumstances will be very different depending on what their partners are doing and whether they have children at home and whether they have parents that they are going to look after so we have to be very thoughtful about managing our colleagues at the moment. Standard Life Aberdeen chairman, douglas flint. Lets get you a quick check up on how markets are trading at the moment. We are seeing futures pretty much flat at the moment. U. S. Futures paring back earlier declines while japanese futures also paring back those declines. We are seeing the japanese yen hold pretty steady this past few severalaround the 100 level. Not surprising when it comes to boj action, promising to buy as many government bonds as needed and more than doubling their buying of corporate data. When it comes to kiwi stocks, at the highest level in over a week. They are back from a public holiday. We are now seeing aussie futures also trading at around this seen theer we had aussie dollar outperforming all of their g10 peers. We are seeing easing of some restrictions on coronavirus in two states. Plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Shery we are just

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