A slew of corporate earnings role in over the next few weeks. Ibm withdrawing its forecast. Have netflix for you tomorrow. Tech this morning buoying the markets. Is taylor riggs in new york, who has been following all of the back and forth. A wild day. Nasdaq up and down. Taylor firmly in the red on the closing bell. Nasdaq at one point in the green, then turning red solidly, off about 1 . What is going on in the oil markets. To goinute, i will try through some of the technicalities. It is the may contract up for expiration tomorrow. If you are a holder of the contract, tomorrow, you have to take delivery tomorrow. Thehad a massive selloff in may contract, at one point settling down at 37 per barrel as traders tried to unsettle may and roll that forward into the june and july contracts. A much better indicator of where oil is trading at the moment. A much better indicator but barrel. Ess 37 per it will be all about june and july going forward. Go tone contract could about demandl destruction at this point. 500y 85 of the s p reporting this week. Walk us through the early headlines. Getting somee headlines from ibm, they are at theg the analyst call moment. Thought thets company would be reporting top and bottom lines. About 3. 7 in the First Quarter. Earnings dropping to about 1. 84. Also where analysts thought the company my report given the expectations and how this pandemic has been filtering through. A lot of strategists said, it really is about that guidance. Did come out and say they will give an update on the second quarter. Most strategists want to know how these affect some of the tech spending. I would also mention that this is the first call for a new ceo. Rometty, theyi think he is the leader to push this company into the cloud division. Greatly, underperforming some of the other cloud peers like amazon, guidance, helping get from the new ceo on direction of where this Cloud Company could be. This pandemic has thrown is all for a loop as well. That we will dig into changeover later this hour. The new ceo. Taylor riggs for us in new york, thank you. We now have many northeastern states requiring people to where face masks when they leave the house. Of course, we know that masks are in short supply. Mobilizing its thousands of sellers to make cloth face masks. 10,000 sellers have sold 100 masks at least, including two yours truly. Telemannn with josh earlier today. Cdcn early april, the changed guidelines to recommend facepeople where fabric mask public. We were seeing about nine searches on etsy per second for a product that effectively did not exist a day before. We put out a call to our sellers asking them to produce fabric face mask. Within two weeks, we had thousands of sellers. What i think is really cool about it, first and foremost, they need to protect the medical grade equipment for people who really need it. To people whome otherwise may sell wedding dresses, for example, and the wedding industry has been hardhit. Third, you can buy a mask that can express your personality. We think it has been a nice opportunity for the community to come and help. Emily talk to us about the Biggest Challenges of continuing sellers. Ze your josh the challenge on the team has been extraordinary. They woke up on april 2 to suddenly have the definition of the word masks changed. On march 31, you almost certainly wanted a halloween mask or you wanted cream soup on your face. Within hours, the definition of masks needed to change. The search team needed to work hard. We have produced a lot of information to help our sellers figure out what is the right pattern to use, what is the right fabric to use, all the information that they need to be successful. It is a big effort from everyone and of course our sellers. Emily talk to us about how this crisis is impacting. You have tens of thousands of selfemployed folks, micro business owners. How are they reeling from this . Josh these are sole proprietors or people who dont earn a w2. We have about 2. 7 million of them at the community is even bigger than that. It is 57 million workers in america that are independent workers. While all of the best intentions have been there in the care act to provide support, they are really not getting almost any support in the ppe, in the expansion of Unemployment Insurance. Change theeed to execution of those. Emily i understand you are on the board of shake shack and they just today announced that they will be returning the ppp loan. To chainit did go restaurants and larger companies. In part because of that they returned the money. Tell us a little bit about that decision and where you think this money should be going . Josh shake shack has been very hardhit. Peoplere not a lot of going to restaurants and shake shack got in line, filled out an application, and were able to receive funding. They were also able to raise money in the market. They gave back the government assistance. Shake shack did not know that the money was going to run out and that it was going to come at the expense of small independent businesses. Shake shack decided to give the money back to make sure it can go to the neediest communities. That is where, when we talk about independent workers, they are at the back of the line. They werent even allowed to until aprile ppp 10. By then, the money had largely run out. The application process talks about things like payroll data that an independent business does not have. While the law specifically says that independent workers are included, the application has completely excluded them. We need to fix that. I have been on the phone with members of congress to really mobilize us. Sellers. Has the jump in the mask business led to a jump in etsy . I am curious how this impacts your bottom line given that you have been able to motivate able to mobilize folks so flee . So quickly. Josh january and february were off to a strong start, then in didh, etsy got hit hard, as the rest of the world. Uplift. Ome the mask thing has happened. Not given a broader update but we will in early may. And other masks up businesses down . Josh typically, our sellers would be selling a lot of wedding gear and that is not happening at the moment. Many sellers are being hardhit. That is why it is so important that they get the assistance. Emily how do you imagine that your business will be changed permanently . Josh i think all of us are looking pretty deep in our , where do weying find meaning right now . The fact that you can find something made by another human, made just for you, i think people will cherish that more and more. People comment try etsy and may be for more everyday items. Etsy has tons of everyday items. You can buy soap and other things. Think they are incredibly inventive and there rising to the challenge. Emily do you have a message for the federal government as potentially more funds will be released for Small Business owners . What is the lesson that the u. S. Government should be taking . Josh i think that the social safety net we decide coming out of the Great Depression in the 1940s was designed for a very different economy where most people worked for big companies. Today, a large part of the workforce are independent workers. We need to look at Unemployment Insurance other Government Programs so they are explicitly designed. Thatwe are seeing now is these programs are not designed with these things in mind and i think that is where a lot of the execution is getting tripped up . Emily here the cloth mask i got on etsy. The shop was mindful mom art. Buy, she two you donates one to health care workers. Coming up, we are standing by for the White House Task force briefing. This is bloomberg. I dont think the rules were bad to begin with. There might have been some glitches here and there. Hasink secretary mnuchin done a terrific job over at treasury. I guess nothing is perfect in life. But judging how fast the original 350 billion went out the door, i think it is a very good program. Mind you, we are stepping up into the mediumsized area but that seems principally due to the federal reserves lending sillies, the socalled main Street Lending facilities. Of course, there will be some assistance to large, Important Companies that have hardships. The airlines being one of them. I think it is a pretty solid program. There are always tweaks here and there but the fact that it works so quickly, i think is testimony to its efficiency. I agree that it has acted much quicker than i thought it would. I thought there would be trouble getting the money out of the door. I was certainly wrong about that. But if a 1 billion up and can get access to the paycheck protection program, we have a bit of a problem, i think we can both concede that. Is that part of the agreement, just tweak things up a little bit so the likes of shake shack, a 1 billion company, does not get access to those funds for Small Business . Larry i have not really followed the shake shack story. Apparently there were some issues there. They may be able to seek financing through the federal service loan facilities. There will always be tweaks. The whole point is, and we have talked about this, we just want to stabilize, put enough cash, liquidity into the economy to get us through the next couple of weeks. That is the whole purpose of this. Small businesses and those who work for Small Businesses. As you know, the unemployment numbers are very bad, although there is some evidence that perhaps they might be slightly less bad. It is a very bad hardship situation. No question about that. If we can get through the next couple of weeks and, as you know, the administrations Health Scientists have given a roadmap to the governors for reopening in several stages, may may be a transition month for a better economy moving into the summer. Where hopefully the contraction will give way to some economic growth. We are just trying to set the stage and keep folks going with direct treasury checks, with deferral of the payroll tax, with deferral of Student Loans and income taxes. I think, in a short period of time, i have to give credit. I think the operating agency has done a good job. Lets move on to tariffs and trade. The latest announcement, overnight, will be differing payments of tariffs on some goods. You and i talked about this back and forth several months now. What have you done, why are you doing it . Larry on socalled mfn, most favorite nations, where there are hardships, we will suspend tariffs for i think three months. We are not rolling back 301s, i. E. China tariffs, or other trade deals. In some cases, the customs duties, the excise tax will be lifted. In particular, there is a lot of concern about retailers and related supply chains getting into the United States. It is a significant action. It is a way of helping out certain industries. It is not an enormous action. It does not change the president s own trade policies. We are suspending and deferring as we have with things like income taxes, payroll taxes, and elsewhere in our plan. Emily u. S. National Economic Council director larry kudlow. For more information on where this deal stands, this potentially half trillion dollars in aid, i want to bring in bloomberg congressional reporter emily wilkins. Obviously, there have been a number of Sticking Points. We thought they might have had a deal by the end of today. Emily w. not yet. The senate is planning to meet tuesday for a potential vote on it. That vote has been scheduled. We will see what happens. We do have some Sticking Points about whether or not states and localities will be getting the , who will oversee virus testing. They are not quite there yet. Emily c. what does this mean for Small Businesses clamoring for this money . The issues surrounding shake shack which got a loan and returned a loner. That can go pretty fast. There has been discussion about how to make sure that it is not just a Large Businesses but it is Small Businesses. That has definitely been a part of discussions on capitol hill. I think a big thing that a lot of lawmakers are focused on, ppp funding has run out and they want to get that back for Small Businesses. Emily c. what is your expectation of how the senate and the house will vote on this . Emily w. the senate could pass this via a mechanism known as unanimous consent. Very quickly, very smoothly on tuesday. But all 100 senators have to agree. For the house, house lawmakers were alerted over the weekend by majority leader steny hoyer that they might have to be back in d. C. At some point this week. Last time we saw lawmakers travel through the night from places as far away as michigan to physically be present because they will potentially need a quorum. In the past, movers have tried to block thousand taking votes and a quorum was needed. Emily c. we have got the 300 billion, another 25 billion for virus testing. What is the rest of that potentially 500 billion . Emily w. 75 billion that democrats asked for for hospitals. That was a Sticking Point last week. That funding also will potentially have a significant portion aimed at rural hospitals. Also a potential 5 billion to 6 billion going to an injury disaster loan program. Provide money for individual businesses. Emily c. our Bloomberg Government reporter emily wilkins, thank you so much. We will be right back with more of bloomberg technology. We are standing by for the Daily White House briefing. The president tweeting that it would start at the bottom of the hour. We are expecting more details at the president continues to lay the groundwork and negotiate with the states about his plan for reopening. Possibly, we will get an update on reopening for this new aid package. Ibm. Ll also dig in to the call is ongoing. It they reported a drop in revenue. More on that after this break. This is bloomberg. Emily welcome back to bloomberg technology. Ibm kicking up earnings season today for big tech. Shares down. After hours, the company reporting a revenue drop and withdrawing a full year forecast. I want to bring in daniel newman, principal analyst who covers ibm. Ibm,l, a big challenge for just like so Many Companies dealing with the economy going into a recession. What is your take on these headline numbers . Daniel i think theres obviously you are going to see the concern of the withdrawn guidance going forward, but given the armageddon we have been hearing about with earnings coming up, there is a glimmer of hope here because there was a beat on earnings. There was a little bit of a shortfall on the revenue. Given what we are expecting, i dont think that can be seen as a bad thing. Emily so, ibm is in a particularly interesting situation and that the former ceo pastor the baton just two weeks ago in the middle of a pandemic. The new ceo, formerly of red hat. Talk to us about the challenges he has ahead. Not necessarily having the same sort of Institutional Knowledge that she did, but also having a fresh look. Daniel i think there was a lot of excitement about the announcement. I think the opportunity for those fresh eyes, hes very bullish on cloud, the future for ibm. People have been waiting for the company to really lean in and show growth in that area. Trailing behind aws, trailing behind microsoft. Never could have expected that two weeks into the job he would be reporting earnings in the middle of a global pandemic. To see it was great he participated in the earnings call. I think it would be a boost for the company and investors to hear from him. But i dont think he really has a choice. The overall performance of the company, i dont think it is necessarily, like we are going to be in terrible shape the next few quarters. 60 recurring revenue in their business. A lot of revenue from services. Growth in the Cloud Business. I think it is up 20 . Record size deals coming out of the red hat acquisition that a lot of people were wondering if this was going to bear fruit. Even the Cloud Business with 20 growth, that means 22 billion in the past month. Just behind aws and microsoft in terms of their play. There are slightly encouraging things. Krishna, i think the expectation was he was going to be pushing that forward. Not all bad. It is extraordinary right now. Emily lets talk a little bit about amazon because you also cover amazon. Aws, the profit driver for the company, but the other part of the business, the Consumer Product business has been getting all of the attention. Amazon struggling with these warehouse closures around the world. Workers protests, shutting down, nonessential items. Some consumers perhaps going elsewhere to buy those items. What do you think we are going to see when amazon tells its earning story . Daniel theres a lot of speculation about the potential for growth. You watch how the company has performed over the past few countered has kind of when the market was really struggling. Now the market has risen, it has seen it top 1. 2 trillion in market cap. People right now are turning to amazon for everything. The company has a lot of concern. Even a company as large as amazon could not have expected what is going on and prepared its workforce to scale for it. It stopped selling nonessential items. It has been able to ramp up production. I think amazon will be one of if it doesnies that not have an encouraging report, people will be very worried because of all the companies out there that should have benefited from this very unfortunate set of circumstances. Amazon should be it. Emily what about microsoft . Obviously, microsoft has the Cloud Business, azure, they also have Microsoft Teams. All of this working from home. You also cover microsoft and zoom, the sort of darling of the corona era. What do you think we are going to see reflected in their results . Another rosoft is i will start with microsoft. Microsoft is a business that has a very stable role in customers. It has hundreds of millions of users of its office pro