Way better numbers anticipated coming through. This is in yuan terms. March exports thought to be down 12. 8 . Official number suggesting they were down just 3. 5 . Imports year on year from 7 . 2. 4 . Ht increase of that is what we have at the moment coming through with the latest data from china and the department. Lets have a look at what else is going on. Hong kong schools have been closed since late january. Little hope classes will be resuming soon amid this coronavirus. They wonder there could be an exodus of students. Issue with thehe hong kong education secretary, kevin yeung. Kevin good morning. Did theseow long schools stay closed, secretary . Kevin it is difficult to tell. Health of our students is always our first priority. Are stillage we monitoring closely the coronavirus,f the whether the situation in hong kong and other places in the world, before we could finally make a decision when our schools could resume. What needs to change for you to actually change your policy . What are the things you are looking for on the ground before you relax this . Kevin we always say we need to consider a few factors before we could consider school resumption. Coronavirus, we rely a lot on professional health advisors. To consider the preparedness of the school, whether the schools are wellprepared for the resumption of classes. We need to ensure there will be ample supply of academic prevention materials or supplies in the market. Whether there are sufficient or hand rubbers or Something Like that, it is safe for students to resume classes. We put in great efforts in promoting learning without suspending learning. Through a lot of different means. Elearning soing students are still able to learn a lot. It is not the same as learning at schools. Some parents are feeling to support to how their kids at home learning. We should look at it from a different angle. Learning, not just limited to schools these days. There are a lot of things students could learn in the community, say housework, lots of reading, all sorts of things. The epidemic is a very good lesson for students, learning how to take care of their hygiene conditions at home during such a disease is spreading around. Evenll think students, though they are not going to school during this period, they can still manage to learn a lot. What would be the facts on the ground for you to change . What kind of indicators are you looking for for schools to reopen . Segment . That, which would it be kindergarten first and primary . How would you stage it . We still need to discuss with the principals. How well about their students. We need to talk to them about class resumption. Weally when we start school, likelyith seniors first, senior and secondary school first. That stage could exercise more selfdiscipline. When wely at the time say personal hygiene is very important. We hope we could gradually from the seniors go down to the juniors, secondary and then primary schools and kindergarten. Also, a lot of parents [indiscernible] is there any move by the government perhaps to refund some of the money . Is there any thought process on that . We have ahong kong very comprehensive Public School system. We have government schools. Students do not need to pay any fees. There are some private schools including international schools, especially for the international community. If they come to work in hong kong, they have choices of curriculum, which may suit better the children. Schools, they are privately run. Parents have to pay the tuition fee. Situationthis kind of at this stage, there are no feel ifand parents may there are no classes, why do i have to pay for such a high fever or tuition for the schools. We know they are actually helping the parents in helping the kids to learn at home, may be through elearning. We have a package that we support different agencies. One of the mergers we put in is employers to front the employees. It also applies to private schools. Have the private schools, including international schools, to ease the burden. And from the Education Bureau we have a package of giving around 18,000 for each international school. Schools could ease their financial burden and hopefully parents asme to the well. We are prepared to adjust their canif they apply and we handle it quickly. Rishaad i wanted to get your view. There is a lot of talk of things to improve on the ground here in hong kong and schools are likely to open that some holidays could be canceled. Do you have any view on that . Anin we have made announcement earlier that we think because of all the elearning and learning during this time, we do not see a need this year. Ory every school is different and every student is different. We leave the professional judgment to the school to decide whether they think their students need lesson time. After the end of the school year. Some of the schools in hong kong have tutorial lessons, during the summer break. Weeks. For one or two maybe just a halfday or Something Like that. So we leave the judgment to the school. I want to also ask you about them wharton exams held later on this year. In a month from now, are they going to be canceled . The diploma for secondary education in hong kong, at maintain thetill start date as the 24th of april. It is about 10 days from now. Based on the latest situation, we have confidence we could still hold the 24th of april as the start date because we have to make special arrangements at the centers to ensure there is separation between the candidates while taking the examination. Usually they are relatively low risk activities because at the examination usually we do not have a chance to have lots of communication with other candidates. If we require them to have a mask on during examination, they order a temperature check, we think it would be safe, if the situation maintained as they did today. Are you worried with the lack of normal classroom education that many of these kids will perform badly, o levels are the gtes or other levels . The local the dse, examination, most of the school has reported to us they have completed the teaching before the chinese new year. Basically the whole curriculum has been covered. I think most of them have been canceled. They have their way of assessing the performance of the students based on their performance at schools and also their own mechanisms. This is a very special year for everyone in hong kong as well as the rest of the world. And for students who are competing there secondary education it is also a very special year for them. Be one way or another affected. Think you so much for joining us, kevin. The big news this hour, the latest numbers on trade in china. Yuan data coming out better than anticipated for march. Exports were expected to decline by 12. 8 , according to economists we surveyed. We saw a decline of 3. 5 . We were looking at a 7 contraction in the number of imports. They actually got an expansion of 2. 4 . Moment, perhaps telling us things perhaps are getting back to normal. I have to say these were yuan numbers, too. Lets have a look at what is going on with first word news in new york. The coronavirus heading for another grim milestone. Almost 2 Million People around the world confirmed as having been infected. The total has doubled in size since april 3. The World Health Organization repeating calls for lockdown vigilance as governments plan for lifting restrictions. With political pressure rising the who says now is not the time. The International Olympic committee delaying the tokyo games because of the coronavirus will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Overall bill could be as much as 6 billion. Before the postponement organizers put the bill as more than 12 billion. A government audit doubled that amount. Indonesian president joko widodo, a 28 billion dollars fiscal stimulus for the coronavirus and would widen the budget deficit necessary. He says of the pandemic last more than six months they can raise the deficit target beyond the current goal of 5 of gdp. Indonesia announced three virus stimulus packages so far. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Lets tell you what we have coming up in bloomberg markets. , theng at the outlook investment outlook. Kerry craig will join us at the bottom of the hour. That is on the way. This is bloomberg. Selina welcome back. Chinas exports fell. Imports rose. Concerns over Global Demand and place in remaining in many of chinas key trading places. Tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. Take us through the details. Those numbers providing some lift in the markets. Dire then analyst expected. This is year on year. They contracted 3. 5 . Not nearly as badly as the forecast. Economist saw a drop of almost 13 . Contractionsus a not nearly as bad as forecasted. 2. 4 actually increased year on year compared to estimates of a 7 drop, goods like beef, pork and soybeans. Time, evenome at a though chinas production is getting back to precoronavirus levels, that Global Demand weak. E still looking very we had a few lines out from Customs Officials speaking at a press conference in the past few minutes that china faces big difficulties when it comes to trade, there is shrinking International Demand on that will impact china. Official saying we should not underestimate the difficulties for trade this year. Tom, how much of chinas Production Capacity has been restored . 95 ink i heard a figure of being bandied around. That seems quite at odds with what is happening globally. Tom that is right. Bloomberg economics have been crunching the numbers on this for a number of weeks. For the forecast last week that latest data said china is back to work 95 last week. There is some concern amongst economists getting the last 5 will be difficult because there are still challenges and issues around getting staffing in factories. But it is currently at 95 . Production and investment have been ramped up. That seems to have provided modest support. A modest increase in imports. There was an expectation to see a contraction. It is about that external picture. That is what chinese officials were talking about, many trading partners and economic lockdown. Early cases suggested that demand will be weak and continue to be weak. We have seen manufacturing in the u. S. And japan slump as well. Best caseying, scenario, Global Trading 2021 will fall 13 . Many expect a further fall in Global Demand. Much,d thank you very Tom Mackenzie joining us from beijing. Lots coming up on bloomberg. Looking at those trade numbers in dollar terms. Just had Tom Mackenzie showing way betterl by 3. 5 , than the fall of 12. 8 that had been projected. This is bloomberg. Haslinda lets focus on emerging markets. Investors often told to focus on em currencies first strong fundamentals when the world emerges from crisis. But that may not be the case this time. From singapore. You seem to be suggesting buying em fx based on fundamentals does not always work. Why is that . Simon that is right. Reasons why iuple think it does not work. First of all, there is a general that currencies that get hit hardest in the initial phase of the crisis often do not have great fundamental so they also tend to be victims of panic selling and that exaggerates relative fundamentals. More specifically though it will depend on the cause of the rebound though if we look at the in 2008, thesis currencies we saw rebounding earliest probably benefited from the china stimulus package. That brought about a recovery in the process in commodities, palm oil, gold. Oil hit bottom in late december and that was very important in this instance. Rishaad why do you think buying highquality currencies does not work when the market starts to rebound . Let me step back and explore that crisis. Indonesia, brazil and south africa, these were the first to drop. They dropped months before the markets. Even though some of their external fundamentals were reserves for example, covered to imports. These probably rebounded relatively early because they had been victims of panic selling and secondly because they benefited from the china rebound. Simon haslinda simon joining us from singapore. Lets look at where we are in terms of markets. Asian markets strongly in the from those vetted and expected trade data out of china in yuan. Uphave taiwan, indonesia all by more than 1. 5 right now. The philippines also up. This is bloomberg. It is 10 29 a. M. In hong kong and china. New york. In chinas exports spell less than month, although the coronavirus is hurting Global Demand and the countrys produce and ship goods. A yeard 3. 5 from earlier, while imports rose more than 2 . Despite china returning to normal, Many Companies are still not running at full capacity. Meanwhile, the number of u. S. State governors say theyll form regional alliances to coordinate the reopening of schools and businesses. That sets up the potential clash who says hent trump alone has that authority. Californias gavin newsom says and other governors will be guided by facts and science but hes pressingsays ahead with reopening plans. Ive been having many discussions with my team and top experts. And were very close to completing a plan to open our hopefully even ahead of schedule. On plunged to the lowest record. A gauge of sentiments from minus to minus 21. Ry National Australia bank says growth andrt job capital expenditure. The australian treasury seize sees the jobless rate soaring to june. Twice as high as february. Construction ticked up last that theing signs economy is starting to recover. The mainlands top 25 excavator manufacturers sold about 50 thousand pieces of equipment in than inlmost 12 more the same month last year and 90 of the machines were bought by companies. And the coronavirus has further weak end Global Demand for arabia. N saudi they have cut most of its oil pricing. Prices whileuced raising prices in the u. S. Opec has agreed to slash output in the hope of draining the glut. And the last two democrats chasing the white house have put them, withbehind Bernie Sanders endorsing his rival, joe biden. The endorsement comes less than after sanders abandoned his campaign. He and biden are creating a task shared policyon ideas. Global news, 24 hours a day, on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Taking a look at the markets right now, asian markets firmly that lossey, after that we saw yesterday. Its getting a bost pretty much chinasboost from export numbers, coming in better than expected. Contracting just 3. 5 . Chinas production gradually being restored, but the spread to have virus led to stringent measures. T here, up about 1. 6 . All 18 sectors are up. Still, if you take a look at how its done so far since january, down about 18 below its 52week high that we saw back in january. The bok set to extend 4 billion using the currency swap line with the fed. Taking a look at the other koci, malaysian said they will continue to pay dividends, even world areanks in the scrapping them. Cited the negative impact of the virus on the economy. Sees aa, by the way, it contraction in growth for the year. The currency market, yen at the60 and some strength in Chinese Renminbi as well. At 7. 04. Lets talk markets. Is kerry craig, Global Market strategist at jpmorgan. To have some kind of optimism in the market. But is this pretty much driven headlines than anything else . Good morning. Think whats driving it is the idea that as bad as things have been, the markets are now looking and saying, well, theres a flattening of curves in terms of viral world. Around the we now have a deal on oil. Actually see, in this quite horrendous than normal. Faster however, we would disagree with that view. Markets can have rallies, and the recovery usually takes much longer than in, given is pricing how deep the recession is likely to be in the western world, over coming quarters. I think this is a bit of a reprieve in terms of some both sentiment. But as we see the Economic Data and the earnings from companies thinkto come through, i potential, in investors minds. Ofhave we seen the end volatility . Were seeing vix from about 42 previously. Are we done with those 5 gains from both sides that we saw in march . Well, i think the Central Bank Action and the government to try and boost the economy and provide a fiscal way ins has gone a long bridging that volatility. Particularly the Central Banks have this one job of just aiding money cheap to government financing and that will bring those volatility numbers down. Trading, 40 ont the vix, thats well above the average of just under 20 on average over the long run. The vix is still elevated. I think volatility will remain, maybe just not as high as it has been. Tell me about the dollar a more, kerry. Essentially printing all this money and this bond buying program, including bonds, we should be weakness here. Whats your take . The u. S. Dollar hasnt behaved as we would have to. Cted it looking at the dollar, before we moved into this period around pandemic, that we thought the u. S. Dollar was too strong. Just had to look at the deficits to say it should come down. Period ofou had that dollar funding, the liquidity of the market that really kept the consistently higher. So add to that the safe haven that came with it. In the wrong moved direction, given that we had all the Central Bank Action that equate to qey lowering the dollar. Bit of whattle youve seen. We look at the aussie dollar and the u. S. Dollar coming off. Those some some of liquidity concerns. Also i think the dollar to remain largely range bound over the course of this any bighout seeing shift downwards or any big moves stills, although to us it seems overvalued. Mostrry, which is the vulnerable currency in this part of the world, in your view . Currency movements, as i mentioned, arent behaving as normal. In terms of the market, it will be those where we see the biggest balance, current account deficits. Were not seeing the policy support. I think thats something to consider when we look at emerging markets and see opportunities from valuations that are much more attractive. We need to balance that. Makers, programs to try growth. Nue to support definitely pockets for emerging market weakness. Spreadsas the virus from africa to latin america, it could put pressure on the oil well, we could see it in the latin american places. Asian areas where we know theres a reliance on tourism, containment measures are going to be more restrictive, again, they could pain. Bit more kerry, its a big earnings week this weekend. Dire. Ay its going to be worse than you can possibly imagine. We be lookingould at the numbers . Does it even make sense to perhaps, you know, look past numbers, write them off . Well, i think the biggest this, is theabout beoming earning season will the guidance from the companies. I think theres an appreciation bad things can be in the short term. But look through this one, two about thatiod, its effect. The analysts are expecting earnings to go back up to where they were in 2019 over the next couple of years. Red flag,it of a because we know that the economy is going to suffer these huge declines, basis, in terms of growth, and the earnings assumptions dont really reflect that yet. I think theres more downside for earnings revisions to come guidance from companies from this quarter will reflect that. We expect to see those earnings downgrades to come through on the back of that. The expansion of the covid spread, really only started in the late part of the quarter, in the u. S. , and so it wont really fully be reflected until we probably see the Second Quarter earnings as well. Kerry, thank you for joining us. Of jpmorgan asset management. Coming up, the chief executive epayment unit of indonesia. He is seeingus how the virus hitting the Southeast Asian consumer. Coming up. Thats on the way, next. Youre watching bloomberg. [music] welcome back. Consumers in indonesia have embraced digit wallet, signaling longer needs may no to spend significantly on promotion or incentives to hire users. Ain Research Company says gopay is digital wellknown Wallet Company in the country and also has the biggest market share. Virusdriven times, lets discuss how the pandemic is changing traditional buying practices. Us from jakarta is gopays c. E. O. , aldi haryopratomo. Have you with us give us a sense of how the know,ic has changed, you the users. How many what kind of a surge useryou seen in terms of numbers . Yeah. Of the ierms think theres one thing that is categories areme really doing well. Obviously things like delivery and food. Categories are maybe not doing so well, like transport. Pretty weve seen a stable business. Main focus has actually been more on the chants d merren merchants who dont have the same resilience. Lot ofeen focused on a programs to help them during this time. What kind of opportunities do trying,amid such challenging times in indonesia . I think the biggest opportunity that we see, one example, people are obviously thinking a lot more and so hygienic. Lot of drivers have asked, can takeelp us, you know, not cash . So weve been doing a lot of tograms, working with banks enable this, so they can do a lot more of the contactless payments. Work. Tarting to we also see opportunities in being much more efficient about helping our drivers and merchants. We started something called the where management donated 25 of their salaries to help drivers. Let me give you an example of the program that is really cool. For they need to the merchants need to sell but theres no a place to sell it. We give them vouchers. Drivers go to the merchants. This creates this whole wheel of during thisturning time when its very difficult for many businesses to stay afloat. Has your business evolved . Can you give us further stories of the way things are evolving under lockdowns, et cetera, et cetera, of thoseu see some changes perhaps remaining after this whole coronavirus epidemic has indeed gone away . Yes. That isnk one trend going to change is were going to see a lot more of small merchants, in categories, for example, like groceries that maybe previously have not embraced Digital Payments or ecommerce are doing it. Example, theres a small market that we have in gopay. We are what were doing is, do we sell during this pandemic when people cant go to the market . Are using a combination of and gomart to start selling the groceries online. Things that probably would have taken a long time to are because markets the online option of payments fast. Mmerce is not as but this pandemic has changed that. We are fortunate to be in a position to be able to capture that, because we have a holistic ecosystem, gopay and gosend and gofood. Is i mean, apart from, of course, the dreadful pathogen itself, what the biggest negative youre seeing in your business now . I think the biggest concern wet we have is, how do maintain the income and livelihood of our driver merchants . D i think that is very difficult. Thatbusiness, obviously has we are fortunate to have delivery andood logistics. Driverso we keep our resilient, with the programs that we create . Simple thing, right . Our driverso help feed their families, so we have programs to deliver rice, staples and sugar through our gopay wallet. That for our mer chants, how do we help them continue to Grow Business . Them to promote their Business Online to consumers at home. The challenge for us, and what night, is how do we make sure that our partners through these times . Digital payment, aldi, is an crowded space. In asia, we have not just gopay but also alipay, razorpay. For theyou positioning competition . Thing that weve really been fortunate in, were part of the ecosystem, right . Which is not just about payments. A business holistically. If you think about a small merchant, they have the need to have an offline edc, to have the need to be able to sell the need to be able to deliver and pay for that delivery. Business, forine example, we have a company that provides a service for online, we havedelivery gofood, gosend. Holisticilding that ecosystem that truly grows the merchant business is really what is about. On and another position that we do wes actually, how actually help improve the livelihood of the drivers and need ofle who are in services . So from very early on, weve had programs where we have drivers up for, like, mortgages for kids educational savings. Started as awhat way to help drivers i think is going to be our advantage and bring us through these difficult times. Because its not only how we started but it continues to be culture and our responsibility. Question. Inal whats happening, weve had a lot of valuations of companies being beaten down. Time to be right perhaps engaging in some m and a activity . Do you actually need to do that anyway in order to stay competitive . I dont want to speculate on any activity but the way that we it is regardless of whether good times or bad times, you build a really solid foundation. Were very lucky to have secured a group. S we are in a position to execute it. As long as we can make sure that and oureep our drivers partners afloat during these times and help them, i think we will have the support not only from obviously the investors but importantly, the customers and the drivers and the partners. Remember how we treated them. And i believe that were going to be in the best position to take advantage of it. Much indeed. Very thats the gopay c. E. O. Joining us there. Talkingre going to be about softbank and its hard landing. Historic loss, where did it all go wrong . Youre watching bloomberg. [music] were back, looking at softbank shares, which went into afterkyo lunch break, higher after an initial drop on the open. The group is forecasting a operating loss for the financial year. This all comes after the empire forced to write down investments and startups such as one web. Course, wework. Tim joins us from taipei. The impatience may have cost him as much as 17 billion. Whats gone wrong . Aw, man. The mistakes that he made over the last not just last year. Back a few years since he started the vision fund. Moneyere sending too much and ramping up the companies they were investing in. That happens, you need to get a return on the back end of it. Is the most famous example. Oyo, theyre facing a cash crunch. Theyre going to have issues. Clearly thats going to be down. N they did i. P. O. Last year, like in uber. Fallen. Them have theyre really not very profitable companies. To pump a lot of money into are nots that profitable, just not able to discipline to be profitable. Thats really where it comes from. Becoming clear that softbank made some key mistakes. Mistakes . Hese say, getting in a bidding war with other venture capitalists, to get access. I havent example, heard that theres a downgrade holdingalue of grabs with softbank. But these are the kinds of companies where theyre just spending ridiculous amounts of money to prop them up. Theyre not finding the fiscal discipline. And when things start to go haywire, as were seeing now with covid19, everybody has to question the valuation. I think its important to remember, the covid19 is really just the catalyst for a valuation ofthe its holdings and it was probably going to happen anyway. Columnist,g opinion in taipei. Thank you for that. Quick check on the latest business headlines. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is refusing to budge on payment guidelines for airlines wanting government aid amid the coronavirus. Losses, withsive passenger dropoff as high as 95 . Says any airline eligible for aid must repay 30 the grants through lowinterest loans within five years. Considering additional Global Pandemic puts more pressure on earnings slumping. Already thatberg intelligence says suggests ford has burnt through 8 billion since the end of last year. Company has already suspended its dividends. Expanding its hirings by another 75,000 workers as it looks to meet everincreasing demand from people stuck at home during the pandemic. The company has already filled 100,000 temporary and fulltime positions since the crisis began. Classified asn essential service amid the other retailers around the world are forced to close their doors. We have going on at 4 30 in new york tomorrow. Bloomberg, leadership live. Is with david rubenstein. It will take viewers into the home offices of xeskt executiveo of theirwhats top mind as they navigate this pandemic. Exclusive interviews. [music] its almost 11 00. Mumbai. In kong. Ht here in hong and this is looking at our top stories. With trade data that is way less. Exports slid last month. Not as far as forecast. Imports actually rose. Tripling itsank virus stimulus package. Were going to be joined by the hour. Ent this and looking ahead to the latest Interest Rate decision from Bank Indonesia, theyre predicting that the cost of borrowing will be cut for a Third Straight month. This is bloomberg markets. A check on the markets. Asian markets pretty much in the loss that wethe saw yesterday. Brushing off pretty much that wildns of earning season, which kicks off this week. Some say it will be one of the most unsettled earning seasons on the record. The coronavirus has thrown the in disarray. Y traders now looking for some bad of evidence to see how global profits have been hit. Take a look at where we are. Index up by one. You talked about the better than expected trade numbers. That chinese production is gradually being restored. Spread of the virus means lockdowns and that means a chineseemand for products. Were awaiting those numbers in terms of usd. South korea, of course, Holding Parliamentary Elections tomorrow. A win for moon jaein could help revive the goal of reshaping the economy. Up by 1. 6 right now. We have the index in new zealand, trading higher. Expectations, will double its qb. Its also possible that the ibn a yield target as in australia. Index, up by 7 10 of 1 . Flip the page. Take a look at where we are in of Southeast Asian markets. Were tracking the koci, keeping watch on malaysian banks. Saying it will continue to pay dividends even as other banks in the word are putting a lid on them. Downgrading its outlook. Brushingt seems to be that aside. The koci in the money right now. Jci, the benchmark in indonesia, its also trading up of 1 . Back in indonesia, it is Rate Decision day. To cut, if needed. Separately raise more than 4 debton in its overseas issuance just last week. Positive. H looking lets find out whats march of this the pandemic globally. Lets get to the first word news. Corrina in new york. Thank you. The coronavirus is heading for another grim milestone with almost two Million People around the world now being confirmed as having been infected. The total has doubled in size since just april 3. The World Health Organization is repeating its call for lockdown vigilance. With political pressurizing, the w. H. O. Says now is not the time. You cant replace lockdown nothing. You must replace lockdown with a very deeply educated, committed, empowered and engaged community. We are going to have to change our behaviors for the foreseeable future. Itsrance is extending coronavirus lockdown to may 11 admittingdent macron the country wasnt prepared for the pandemic. New virus case has declined again. Theyre letting some workers return to their jobs but say to staten no position a date for reopening the economy. Clash with president trump, who says he alone has that authority. Newsom said gavin he and other governors will be guided by facts and science, but pressingdent says hes ahead with reopening plans. Been having many discussions with my team and top experts. To were very close completing a plan to open our country, hopefully even ahead of schedule. Inbusiness confidence australia plunged last month to the lowest on record. Of sentiments from minus two in february to minus 21. Saysnal Australia Bank that may hurt job growth and capital expenditure. Australian treasury sees the doublingate almost this quarter. Twice as high as in february. 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Lets delve deeper in those numbers. Ina chinas latest trade data, theght into the impact of coronavirus on its trade. Exports for march, which was the the crisis there, fell less than expected. Analysis. At the chief economist for greater asia economicsof research and bank of america securities. Good to have you with us. Make how do you make sense of these numbers . Much better than expected. Well, i think a couple of factors are at work over here. The first one, the fact that there was probably some impact delayed, you know, assumptions coming in. These exports and imports will probably set up two or three months ago. They were just being delivered. And given that in january and abruary, there was significant delay in the them wereand some of actually shuffled back a bit and therefore march numbers, those are higher. Think that applies to both exports and imports. At the same time, i think there factors at work, for example, export numbers could boosted by they recent medical supply exports. That, imports may look also better because of orders of crude oil at a time when the oil prices are low. How much visibility do we for the coming months in terms of those trade numbers, china prettyth much back online . Operation. A back in thats right. From a supplyes, perspective, china is mostly they in terms of rejoining supply chain and supplying, projection. Od however, i think we need to be aware of a few things. China probably will see some declines in orders, as weakens. Nal demand in other words, the u. S. And altogetherch is accounts for about 30 of chinas exports, in market starting tojust have more issues with lockdowns and quarantines, et cetera, since about midmarch. Therefore we think thats a orders will of probably start to come out in april and possibly, you know, also in may and june. And therefore, i think the exports are still under more pressure. Would the same time, i say that imports, however, will probably be supported by the starting tonally import more, agriculture products from there u. S. , as of its commitment in the deal. Helen, im just going to get you to answer a question. Get to one to headline. Corona gaining 1 . In no way dependent on crude oil. Thee prices going up due to opec agreement. Just about 1 , a bit more than 1 , after recent pricess due to the oil being weak as well. Know, i want to ask, you weve got all this data out of china and often question marks are raised. So far off the mark in terms of what the economists were predicting. Did you raise your eyebrows . Inwell, i would say that terms of the trade numbers, they ae only giving us kind of quick glance over what is areening, a lot of things probably given the delay from lunar new year. But we think that over time, we should see more data. Inflatione, last week data suggests that although weakening,robably but credit data shows that its going forward. Might be more hope, because financial conditions are becoming more accommodative. But later this week, what is more important and going to help us the most is actually the activity, together with the First Quarter g. D. P. The rebound tog be visible but unfortunately to expectation. In other words, rebound, showing the data coming up, but its not going to be super strong. Going to helps is us, you know, basically send a makers in policy china suggesting that theres a up on policy. Ep helen, just also, is there any readthrough from these trade numbers with regards to g. D. P. , and thats one part of question. The other part is, when do we thet feeling the effects of stimulus as well . Is it already there or do we have to wait . Well, good question. Im afraid that the numbers only a very small handle here, which is in export terms export on goods, from necessary services. It looks like that, you know, we ended up with a number that is not too bad. Trade balance of dollars, 7. 1 billion u. S. Dollars. Would say that i the exports [inaudible] overall activity, you know, kind of levels in the country, imports is a very good proxy, because if you import something, either consume it or if you invest in it, looking at the commodity crisis and also the import of commodities, likell volume, it looks that the industrial side of china is already heating up. Say that the First Quarter probably will still see to most significant hits overall g. D. P. Growth for the whole year. Thats why were expecting a minminus 6. 5 for First Quarter imports numbers today is showing that maybe we are, from here, going to see the upside, because that most significant. Of course, this is going to be distorted by the increase orders the e u. S. As part of [inaudible] the numbersink that are still pretty encouraging, so that, you know, maybe the work behind us. Helen, chinas trade with the u. S. Dropped 18 in the First Quarter. And howyou see recovery do you see the pandemic reshaping the trade relations between the two . Thats a bit tricky to extrapolate, im afraid. Beginning, youre looking at the trade relationship, i think the deal offers a lot of offers like probably in the next six to 12 months or the completion u. S. Election. I think now the worry is that well be asking both china and other, a after the very long period of lockdowns therefore productions i think the worry is that we will probably see, number one, the demand side being hurt, after disruption. And therefore, the worry is that china, for example, wants to [inaudible] in the next two to four potentiallyould see, on the u. S. , could be that ed, [inaudible] so you actually may not be necessarily extremely constructive to china fulfilling fulfill its commitment to purchase this month of agriculture and other from thering goods u. S. So i think that going forward, this is probably going to be aen as a potential, at least temporary road block in the trade relationship. And second, i would say that unemploymentw, the rate goes up in both countries. I think it is pretty critical to how policy are going to help offset the pain and therefore relationship not [inaudible] and other economic cooperationwise, you know [inaudible] think that requires probably more cooperation on both sides. Helen, thank you so much for that. Helen, from bank of america securities. Now, in just a moment, well have an update on the coronavirus situation and later hour, the president of the Asian Development bank joins the discuss its 20 billion aid package from member nations rocked by the outbreak. A preview of indonesias big one with the number two countrysthe benchmark policy Interest Rate. Find out why shes predicting cut of 25 basis points. This is bloomberg. [music] lets take a look, as they extend the lockdown on the coronavirus. President macron saying the unprepared for the situation. United kingdom is also looking into similar movies. More now. Lets just go through the latest out of europe. Encouraging signs. Are they continuing . In france, were taking a look at whats happening there on monday. A pickupry did report we us faucets but fatalities. The Health Ministry said that the country is in a high plateau phase. Expecting the second wave of infections this is after president macron reversed the initial stance that controls were not necessary. [inaudible] he said he was underprepared outbreak, which according to recent study, has of thed about 1. 6 population. The french government sees shrinking by as much as 6 this year. And so indonesian focus has criticized for having one of the lowest levels of coronavirus testing. What has president widodo said about that . Put that into context for you. Only 27,000 people have been tested out of a population of 270 million, making for one of the worlds lowest testing rates country that has the highest number of fatalities in asia, after china. Predicts that 95,000 people could be infected by the end of may. Without more robust testing, the criticism has been that indonesia could be that. Stimating the president joko widodo is saying that testing capacity, is to be boosted by 9,000 samples per day with stricter also beistancing to imposed, including closing abandoning gatherings of more than five people. Plus the government may be looking to expand that partial to areas outside of jakarta. I just want to mention india as than 9,000 more people have been infected. Prime minister modi is expected extended lockdown to april 30. That would end this tuesday. A could be [inaudible] to partially resume in an attempt to salvage the indian economy. Our own sophie in hong kong. Now, coming up, we look at ahead ofmarket bonds that great decision from Bank Indonesia. Stay with us. Bloomberg. [music] back. Come indonesia is expected to cut Interest Rates for a Third Straight month as policy makers take unprecedented steps to bolster the economy amid the outbreak. S bloombergs Market Strategist joins us on the line now. Marcus, will Bank Indonesia cut rates today . Task between propping the or propping the economy . Theyre expecting a cut. Do not believe it will be [inaudible] as we see, Bank Indonesia faces a conundrum. As mexicoy such faces, that is to balance the need to spur Domestic Group with preserving Interest Rates. It can lead to further foreign outflows. Were seeing a selloff of indonesia bonds. Theres a performance in emerging asia after indian bonds april. Why is this the case . Has it got to do with foreign about 40 ofwning indonesian bonds . You are definitely right that. That number has now dropped to around 33 . Back. E Still Holding especially on the macro funds. We are entering a potentially turbulent earning season ahead. Will remain highly sensitive. Be theit may government has had to suspend its fiscal deficit to accommodate [inaudible] highestesia has the virus death in asia after china. Think that indonesian bonds just over 8. 5 billion dollars, thats the record. On is the worst over for this particular bond market . I think that is the Million Dollar question. Myself at least nearing the bottom, in my opinion. Certainly they issued a bond to finance pandemic measures. [inaudible] secondly, its in line with the Federal Reserve should [inaudible] manager, too a good to ignore. Certainly, marcus, the market investment issues have badly by downgrades as well. Are there likely to be more of into thewe go deeper Second Quarter . Yes, actually. If you look at the first from middle east do expect downwards, once Companies Start [inaudible] hit. Ich have been barely in addition, we should be on the lookout for [inaudible] right. Thats marcus wong there joining us there from singapore. Bloombergs macro strategist. Take a look at where the Chinese Markets are at this point in time. Thety much given a lift by betterthanexpected trade numbers coming in at a 3. 5 vs. 12. 8 expected by the markets. Csi300 index, currently up by about 9 10 of 1 . Know the Chinese Markets have been pretty resilient amid all selloff we saw recently in asia. Pboc has beenhe ensuring that the stability of current. At theking a look covid19, getting the nod for a human trial. Off for the moment, after gains, hasr that initial euphoria subsided. Okdoronavirus vaccines for trial. Thats apparently what we have there. The moment a strong day for asian equities. Japan returning from its lunch break, after the break. Theres shanghai. [music] youre looking at live pictures of the lion city. Picture out bloom mi picture out there. Were in the middle of the day. Ng taking a look at the markets, singapore among the biggest 2. 5 . S today, up by about but that news in terms of the outbreak in the lion city. Were seeing a new record case 386, taking the total to 2,918, of course. The government is grappling with the issue of putting were seeing pretty much an escalation late. Number of cases of currently up by 2. 5 . Headlines. A look at on the economic front, chinas exports less than expected last month, although the coronavirus is hurting Global Demand and the countrys to produce and ship goods. Outbound shipments declined 3. 5 from a year earlier. Despite china returning to areal work, Many Companies still not running at full capacity. Meanwhile, the International Committee says postponing the tokyo games will cost it hundreds of millions of dollars. The president said the overall bill could be as much as 6 billion with all the noni. O. C. Being borne by japan. Thevernment f audit doubled amount. Indonesia president joko widodo says hes prepared to boost the 28 billion fiscal stimulus for the coronavirus and would widen deficit if necessary. He says that if the pandemic lasts for more than six months, the government can raise the deficit target of about 5 of g. D. P. Announced three virus stimulus packages so far. Coronavirus has further weakened Global Demand for energy and saudi arabia has cut of its oil pricing in a clear sign that it wants to remain competitive. Aramco reduced prices. Prices to the u. S. And trimming discounts to northwestern europe. Its allies have agreed to slash output in the hope of draining the glut. This situation can be mitigated within the next couple of months or less. Prevail as will opposed to more uncertainty. Once we turn to that curve, away from the descending curve, things will be a lot better. The u. S. , the last two democrats chasing the white house have put any rancor them, with Bernie Sanders endorsing rival joe bidens run. The two said americans of all yaitions should endorse the v. P. Creating a task force on shared policy ideas. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Lets get to the markets, whats going on in this part of world. We just got japan coming back, extending some of the gains we saw. There we go, nikkei, to the upside. The hang seng. Korean market up as well. Seeing gains were right across the board. The Southeast Asian side of aregs as well, as we heading to a bull market there. More than 10 . Y that is actually perhaps key, if whoare one of those people want to put their hats on some good news. Thats currently the position we find ourselves in. Up 2. 5 . Market, manila also extending some of the gains we saw as well, in the morning session at least, yesterday. It. E we have in the market. D now, the Asian Development bank has tripled the side of its response to the coronavirus pandemic to 20 billion. Memberkage will help countries count the macroeconomic and Health Impacts crisis. Y the the aid expends 6. 5 billion dollar initial response announced last month. Us is thank you so much for joining us. Im just wondering how much pressure the adb is feeling on resources given that more and more companies are seeking financial emergency help. Yes, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Its very good to speak with you. Well, as we all know, the pandemic continues to escalate dramatically in many countries. And the human cost, every day. Health systems are stretched thin. And various are quarantined, lockdowns and closures have farreaching and social, economic impacts. Mentioned, the adb already announced 6. 5 package to the immediate needs of 18. Member countries, march it is not clear that the scope and scale of the crisis requires a much greater effort. So therefore, just yesterday, we launched a more comprehensive support package, triple in volume. But to deliver the new package punctual faster and decided to has further streamline our services. Make the terms and conditions of lending much more flexible. This new package includes establishment of covid19 Pandemic Response option. We call it cpro. Billions of, will be provided to help governments mitigate impacts of covid19 pandemic. This total package, 20 billion includes about 3. 5 billion in concession and grants. 2 billion of the package will be made available private sector. We will quickly work on tortterm working capital companies, supply chains moving and to help people get back to work. These that mr. Yes . What are the greatest risks for the region compared to the u. S. Andsons, like the the u. K. Yes. Observe actually as i mentioned earlier, our new support package will be able to respond to the urgent needs quickly. But we believe theres a couple first. S, the outbreaks can and have spread to more countries, other adb developing member countries. Longer to may take contain the outbreak than currently envisioned. While this will be over within the next three to six months. Bitit may be a little longer than that. Sadly, the economic effect may envisioned. An we assume that the loss of 2. 3 of global g. D. P. But it may be worse than that. We cannot discount the possibility of financial turmoil countriese experiencing financial crisis. Thee need to try to avoid situations, that the coronavirus kinds will evolve, in any of financial and currency crisis. Finally, fifth, this global could leave permanent scars, resulting in fundamental changes to the global economy. You talked about how you can expect financial turmoil. Which countries are at risk . Which countries may need a bailout down the road . Know, we areu observing worldwide, you know, crisis or currency crisis. But there are some countries whose Capital Market is of course very volatile and fragile. So the outflow might help them, that so we compared example, 20 years ago, when we had the financial crisis, in each country, sufficient level of reserve, have af all, and we means to protect our currencies. Have, for example, currency safety net. Its there. Compared with 20, there. S ago, it is but exhausting it, we should try ofavoid any possibility that. Can you be a little bit more specific here . In this part of the world for you is most vulnerable . Cannot, you know, say which country is most vulnerable. That, you know, sometimes the markets you have a veryountries vulnerable structure of capital bekets so we should really vigilant, the capital movement, day by day. Now, do you think that the facility for companies are there . What type of companies are you looking to perhaps help here . The ones youre expecting to come and assist . Know,l, actually, you talking in our private sector operations, actually we are expand operations in a couple of spheres. One is financing. Financing is definitely needed. Not to be disrupted by the crisis. In the shortviding term, financing of the trade to continue. Second is supply chain network. Network has also been disrupted by this crisis. So any necessary financial the supplyto let chain go on. Also providing capital to the small, immediatesized Mediumsized Enterprises so they can survive this crisis is over. They are all included in this package. Thank you so much. The adb president. Now, continuing economics. Its expecting a 25 basis point cut. Thats when indonesia announces a Rate Decision in just a few hours. Were going to be talking to one forecastst accurate of Bank Indonesia policy. Thats on the way, next. Youre with bloomberg. [music] welcome back. Indonesia central bank is to Lower Borrowing costs for a Third Straight month. Survey,g to a bloomberg Bank Indonesia will cut its benchmark by 25 basis points to 4. 25 . Lets bring in economics lead economist, chara chanana, the number two ranked forecaster for indonesia rates according to bloomberg. Always good to have you with us. The question really is whether agovernor can afford to cut rats adding to risks. Yes. Of course it is a tough choice, no doubt. Are economic pressures and there are currency pressures as well. It has been down by more than 10 this year despite some recent recovery. Solve both of these risks need to be managed right now. And my view is that Bank Indonesia will lean towards a cut, even though the currency pressures are due a approach. They should preempt as much possible, because supplydriven inflationary gains might start to appear in the later months. Jakarta is in lockdown and there are supply chain issues. Mind, and i think toy should be in a position preempt, rate cuts for sure. Also, you know, the currency has recovered a little bit recently. That givest them them a wi bit of room there. The governor is always talking about front loading, being ahead of the curve. Longer ahead of the curve, it seems. Will he continue with his triple intervention . Triple intervention is very now, because it is the most vulnerable in the currency basket. That being said, youre right to say that until last year, bank the most was actually this year, but theyve kind of lost that tack because of the currency again. Es so what actually i believe is be furtherng to unconventional measures to try policy easing. So thats why thats where i governor still has a lot of room to kind of play around with policy measures. Thats something theyre really looking out for today. Whatll me here, though, will 25 basis points do . Weve seen a lot of capital flight from indonesia. Weve seen whats happened with the bond market there. Do you think that this is they really need to do . Preventthey might further capital flight. Its a fine line, isnt it, what herere trying to achieve by Interest Rate relaxation . Absolutely. The bi, you, with fed asrom the new york well, i think dollar liquidity, dollar funding is in a better position right now. So i think, you know, with today i actually 25 after today, according to me. Justat should actually put, you know, bi in a more you know, in the easing framework, on a global scale. As, you know, i mentioned they seem to be lagging behind right now. So a better support measure there. More to kind of ensure that the economy, you know, once overockdown measures are and the Health Crisis is theyally more manageable, economy returns back to a more stronger footing as well. I want to move from indonesia aboutia and just talk emerging policy there. But on top of that, give us a of how bad things are with the pandemic really at the moment, getting worse currently in that country. Yes, of course. Benefits that india has is their Elderly Population is quite low. They only have about 6 who are aged 65 and above. So that still allows some scope for immunity without the country taking the path of Something Like italy or the like. Do have the extension of the lockdown, it appears likely, prudent move to avoid the crisis. But, again, the impact to the real economy in the short term is likely to be material. I do see a risk of India Running a recession even though, you know, the lockdown may be staggered way in the coming weeks and some activity might resume. Course we know, last year, india has already been facing a crisis of credit and bankingce and the sector is in a mess. These issues are likely to multiply even after the Health Crisis is over. So i think indias challenges certainly bigger than indonesia, which might have, you smallershorter, shortterm impact, because of restricted lockdowns and stuff like that. Quickly, in about 20 seconds, i mean, theyve said willing to do more. What more can it do in terms of measures . Onal i think one of the most things that i am looking at is the monetization the fiscal deficits to ease the pressure for the government as well. It will continue to add more liquidity and more its rate cuts. That being said, i dont rule out further conventional policy as well. All right. Continuumana of economics. Thank you so much for that. Plenty more to come. Keep it here with us. Bloomberg. [music] news,ting some breaking we have the numbers earlier, were now getting the dollar figure here as well. Looking for a contraction of exports of 13. 9 . Contraction of a 6. 6 . On top of that, imports, well, at a dropbackng of about 9. 8 in the dollar numbers. Actually got 0. 9 . Less dire than actually had been predicted before. Thats where we find ourselves. The yun figures as were looking at these imports, expected to be down 7 . An increase of 2 . Exports, better than expected as well, in both yun and dollar terms. In theiding a lift markets, quite a number of thanes in asia, up by more 2 . Oaktree Capital Management was a strong buyer of corporate debt last month during the virusinduced selloff. Cofounder spoke to bloomberg riskrewardout his calculation. I thought, at the lows, which i believe on march that the riskreward ratio had become significantly in favor of reward. The lower prices go, the more for a rebound and the less the potential for further declines. That point that ratio had become very favorable. Today obviously less so. Mentioned, about half hadhe 34 that the market declined between february 19 and march 23 has been made up. So by definition, half of the gone roughly, and risk has returned. Howard, thatible, the very best buying opportunities of this crisis are behind us . Eric. S possible, you know, it would defy past. Isons to the and, you know, for the most part, all we have are the past. S to we dont have knowledge of the future. By the way, knowledge of the future is the current working the memo i hope to get out today or tomorrow. We dont know whats gonna future. N the we work off of analogies to the past. And in the past, you know, the past, this is a rally of record speed and proportion. Past, you look at the most rallies in the middle of markets have been followed declines. Ent usually markets dont rally straight up. So it sounds to me i dont want to put words this your but it sounds to me as though you wouldnt be surprised hold andlevels didnt markets were to, if not marcharily retest those 23 lows, sell off from where we are right now . Yeah. Mean, i wouldnt be surprised. Iving said that, of course, do believe that we should be we need be less defensive than we were six months ago or so. But, no. Mean, since past rallies have interrupted by past retreats, then i dont think you surprised if it happened this time. Howard, you were counting latest memo how aggressively oaktree bought debt in the first few months of the crisis back in 2008, before the ultimate lows were in march of 09. How much has oaktree put to work since this crisis began . Well, i cant give you a number, eric. And i cant, as part of a public company, i dont want to that hasntormation been generally disclosed. We were strongat buyers in the month of march. And in the panic or the motivated selling that know,anied the virus, you there were good buys to be had. Whether bruce carr, the cochairman, jay, the c. E. O. , everyone else back in los angeles, were able to buy as much as they wanted . Lot of forced selling. And many securities, as you selling at, were deep discounts to where they had been only weeks earlier. Right. Thats well, you know, bruce did a great job. Buyer. Was a substantial at the time, and by the way, back in 08, bruce and i were at it all the time. Well, i think were going too fast. No, i think were going too slow. And you vacillate. And, you know, buying in the midst of a cascade downward is alwayschallenging and introduces mixed emotions. So, you know, we bought. We tried to calibrate. To buy a lot. But be disciplined so as to have day. Left for the next [music] beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Yousef this is good middle east. Is slowing and certain regions. Awaiting the timing for when it will be safe to ease restrictions. Rallying. E imports rose. We will have the details. Saudi arabias Energy Minister hopes that the oil market will improve n h