Could close with an agreement to cut output. Russia says it is prepared to cut as much as 15 . Lets get a check on markets. We are seeing quite a bit of risk abbett risk appetite, given that we dont see signs of a peak in cases globally in the epicenters of coronavirus. Dax up 2 and the futures pointing to gains. The s p 500 technically went to pool territory. Bull territory. Will initial jobless claims put a stop to the rally or will they shrug off the numbers . One market is perhaps telling a different story. The dollar is steady in todays session. Gains, someg some optimism ahead of the opecplus meeting in oil. Generally a bit of a riskon tone across markets. Bloomberg first word news. Vicena former u. S. President joe biden is the Presumptive Democratic nominee for president after Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign. He thanked supporters for helping create an unprecedented grassroots movement. Stays says he will on the ballot to help democrats closer to his vision. Oil gaining as Top Producers appear to be nearing a deal, russia saying it is prepared to cut by 1. 6 Million Barrels a day. An opecplus meeting will be held later to discuss the cuts. Algeria holds the rotating presidency of the cartel. When they announced their emergency rate cut in march, fed officials already were talking about a new program to cushion the economy, according to the minutes of their much 15 meeting. Officials were split over how long and how severe the downturn would be, but there were concerns the crisis could put further downward pressure on inflation. Speaking of inflation, Christine Lagarde, ecb president , has made a strong plea for inflation and urged governments to get over their differences as they prepared a second round of for a second round of talks. The comments came in an oped published in newspapers across europe, a day after ministers failed to agree to a rescue package. Saudi arabias Sovereign Wealth Fund has taken stakes worth 1 billion in european oil majors, including total. Shares were bought on the open market, and the Investment Fund may buy more. No comment from the companies. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Nejra thank you so much. Global coronavirus cases top 1. 5 million as germany hit a record oneday death toll earlier this morning. U. K. And new york had the same tragic milestone on wednesday. Prime minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care, but the chancellor says his condition is improving. Wall street banks are warning of a 5 trillion hit to global growth. Joining us is the ceo of unigestion. Just, given what i outlined in terms of global coronavirus cases, not really a sign of a peak and what wall street banks worn in a hit to growth, is the rally we have seen so far in april that has taken the s p 500 into full market territory going to fade . Bull market territory going to fade . Fiona thank you for having me. First of all, i would say the correction was very strong and the rally that followed was also very strong. We still believe there is uncertainty in the markets. All sectors. Remember, in 2008 it started with financial and real estate. 2001, technology. This is the first time we have a correction that is global in a synchronized way. So i think we have more uncertainty going forward, because as you say, the crisis is still not finished and we dont know when it is going to finish. It has a profound effect on the economy, and we dont know how long it will be locked down as it is now. Nejra fiona, you point out that markets were driven by Liquidity Risk in march. Are they going to wake up to profitability risk in april . Fiona absolutely right. March was really scary, because you had two effects. The macro shock plus all the Liquidity Risk that followed, with even Treasury Bonds becoming quite illiquid. I think Central Banks around the globe have done whatever it takes to keep that under control, quite successfully. He Liquidity Risk in march has retreated in april. Nevertheless, april, we dont know for how long the economy will be closed, and every week terday,es on yes france said every two weeks so you canf the gdp, imagine the shock 15 of their gdp, so you can imagine the shock is not finished. Nejra so outline what you mean defensiveay you are but seek out only the most attractive opportunities . What does that look like in a portfolio . Fiona we still have a position in Investment Grade bonds, because they benefit from the centralbank policy, and remain prudent in equities. We see volatility going up and down in the next month, so we thein in equities but in most offensive part of equities, on a strongplaying rebound of the economy. Nejra ok. So you arent really playing on a strong rebound of the economy. We were saying some wall street banks are warning the Global Economy of the next over the next two years could take a hit of 5 trillion to gdp. Are you factoring in that sort of macro outlook, core at this point is an outlook like that not that useful given the uncertainties ahead . Neil i still think the outlook is fiona i still think the outlook is not very useful, because we dont know how long the economy will remain closed and all these numbers are very dependent on when the economy will be reopened, and will it be capable of staying open . Because if there is a second wave of coronavirus coming, he would have to close again. Uncertain, the projection of the future. What we know is that in a bestcase scenario, we factored in the economy closed for two months, then a slow restart. And thats still, we dont know that, that is a bestcase scenario. Nejra fiona frick, unigestion ceo, staying with us. Up next, solidarity is selfinterest, according to ecb president Christine Lagarde, crisis spending. And as ubs delays part of its dividend, we discuss with Ceo Sergio Ermotti. Our exclusive conversation is later. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg surveillance. In london. Ehic biggesterlands two dividend pushing back payments. Credit suisse will pay half of its 2019 dividend and distributes the rest later in the year. Ubs plans to pay a dividend in two installments and expects of about 1. 5 billion. Disneys streaming service has topped 50 million subscribers, relying on a low price and a wealth of familyfriendly content. Over the last week, disney plus launched in eight european india,ies and part of their threepronged platform including espn and julio hulu. Not yet in at is position to accurately assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and is withdrawing guidance on net sales and Profit Growth for the year. Diageo already returned about 1. 25 billion pounds to the first phase of its Buyback Program. Nejra viviana, thank you so much. As eurozone finance ministers prepared to hold further talks today, Christine Lagarde renews a plea for a strong fiscal this is bloomberg surveillance. Still with me is fiona frick, ceo of unigestion. We had commentary in an oped from Christine Lagarde of the ecb yesterday, pushing for physicals averse fiscal support as we still wait for a decision on how europe moves forward in tackling the coronavirus crisis. Earlier, you were saying in your defensive portfolio you look for selective opportunities, for example u. S. Investmentgrade because of the fed corporate purchase program. Are you taking the same approach in europe, in fixed income, based on what the ecb is doing . Fiona yes, but mainly in Investment Grade, and goodquality investmentgrade. Difference between good investmentgrade and investmentgrade that could become highyield, which we think is very risky and has liquidity issues, so we stay on the very good side of investmentgrade in europe. Nejra if you look at european equities, fiona, over 100 companies in the stoxx 600 have suspended or delayed dividends. Far fewer u. S. Companies have done that so far. Does that make European Companies at all more appealing in this environment, where a lot of investors are focusing on Balance Sheet strength, particularly with lack of visibility on earnings . Fiona its a good question. There are two answers to that. The first one is that europe moved to cut dividends, but the situation in europe before the covid crisis was already less while the less growth u. S. Had 1 or 2 growth. In terms of valuation, european stocks are cheaper than u. S. Stocks, but in terms of the economy the u. S. Was stronger before the covid. The fiscal plan in the u. S. Is strong, while in europe we are still negotiating. Are from fiscal banks, and central the u. S. Is in better position. Nejra ok. How much emphasis are you putting focus are you putting on data like initial jobless claims . Of all the data you are watching, is that a crucial one for you . Fiona yes, it is a crucial one. The other things, earnings estimates, which will be very important. Q1 coming next week from the First Quarter. These numbers are a leading data. Tor of the economic fora how bad could it get Company Earnings in the u. S. And europe, for the rest of the year . Again, there is a lot of uncertainty because it depends on the duration of the lockdown. 35 to 55 e a contraction in earnings for the year. Nejra thanks so much for joining us. Unigestion. Ceo of as we said earlier, wall street banks worry the coronavirus pandemic could rob the Global Economy of over 5 trillion of growth over the next two years. Thats greater than the economy of japan. The chairman of Goldman SachsAsset Management, sheila patel, spoke to me earlier about the recovery of different sectors after being hit by a virus. Lets the virus. Lets take a listen. Growth, butxpect the order of magnitude has not resonated with us yet. We are extremely focused on the question of rolling recoveries. Some sectors will rebound more quickly, while others lag significantly. To speaking after a multicountry tour. In this case, all of it is coming from a desk chair. But after speaking to people on pretty much every continent every day except for maybe antarctica, people are truly looking for the opportunities, but dealing with the uncertainty of timing. Theres no question that some industries will take quite a bit of time to come back, say the Restaurant Industry or travel. On the other hand, manufacturing could resume sooner. We could see rebounds in transportation, given current levels are so low, although getting back to the prior high levels will be difficult. We will see some geographic disparities. So i think it makes for a very uneven next couple of years, given those unknowns, but not one without opportunity as well. Nejra absolutely. So sheila, as you have done your global tour, albeit perhaps more remotely at the moment, what is engaging from clients in terms of their appetite for risk . Are they wanting to hold cash and sit on the sidelines right now . Are they concerned with capital preservation . Or are they saying please go out and find those opportunities for us, with the recent selloff we have had, even though of course the s p 500 is technically right now back in a bull market . Sheila every client wants to talk about the investing environment and management environment. They are all struggling to support their teams and vet new ideas to put money to work, having the whole teamwork remotely. Manye institutional front, of our clients came into 2020 expecting a challenging environment or even recession and had raised cash. So they came in with some money that could be put to work, but now you need to consider where. I would say it is more measured in the u. S. Money has been put more quickly to work coming out of asia, parts of asia, as well as say the middle east. The focus is really been on the opportunistic side of it. So if you think about where people were in equities, versus where they are today, from the institutional side and the retail side there is significantly less exposure. Patel,that was sheila Goldman SachsAsset Management chairman, speaking to me earlier. Lets look at key events to watch out for today. 12 30 p. M. You u. K. Time, we get the account of the bank of think when meeting. Investors will scour it for efforts to tackle the economic fallout of coronavirus. We will get initial u. S. Jobless million,orecasted at 5 the secondhighest on record. At 5 00 p. M. , we get an update from the British Government at its daily coronavirus briefing. Prime minister Boris Johnsons health is likely to be a central question. To delay, as ubs seeks part of its dividend, we speak to Ceo Sergio Ermotti. And green on the screen looking at the markets. Stoxx 600 gaining over 1 . We see that across a lot of benchmarks. Yesterday the s p 500 temporarily in bull market territory. U. S. Futures point to another day of gains. The 10year yield slips, the dollar is fairly steady and oil on the front foot ahead of the opecplus meeting, with positive signs from russia in terms of the outcome. This is bloomberg. To help you stay informed of the latest news just say coronavirus into your xfinity voice remote to access Important Information and special reports from around the world. And to keep your kids learning at home, say education to discover learning collections for all ages from our partners at common sense media, curiosity stream, history vault, reading corner and many others. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Nejra delaying the payout, ubs and Credit Suisse push back half their dividends on advice of the swiss regulator. Well speak exclusively with ubs Ceo Sergio Ermotti at 9 30 a. M. Global coronavirus cases top 1. 5 million. Wall street warns of a 5 trillion hole in the Global Economy. New york and the u. K. Report their deadliest days yet. And nearing a deal, Oil Extends Gains ahead of todays opecplus meeting as Top Producers close in on an agreement to cut output. Russia says its ready to cut by as much as 15 . Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. Im nejra cehic in london. Lets get the first word news with viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin with Boris Johnson. His condition is improving. He spent a third night in Critical Care in the hospital. Officials are drawing up plans to extend the lockdown to control the u. K. s growing coronavirus crisis. Over the next week, it is protected the outbreak will peak. Now to questions about how quickly nations can relax their lockdowns after a rise in new infections in italy and spain. The restrictions are devastating economies. Germany is expected to slump almost 10 . That is the most since records began. Global coronavirus cases now topping 1. 5 million. More than 5 trillion in the Global Economy growth wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic over the next two years, and that is greater than the annual output of japan. They warning coming from wall street banks as the world plunges into the deepest peacetime recession since the 1930s. Even with stimulus, global gdp is unlikely to return to trend until at least 2022. The end with starbucks. At least six months of pain, and despite the stark outlook, starbucks as the headwinds are temporary. They can be readers they can be reversed over the next two quarters. There is evidence that business in china will fully recover. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in im than 120 countries, viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Nejra . Nejra thank you so much. Lets get the latest on oil. Crude is extending gains as they worlds Top Producers appear to be moving closer to a deal to slash output. Russia is signaling it is ready to make cuts as a producer nation faced up to unprecedented slump and demand. Joining us now is jason gammel. Great to have you with us on the show. Is the Oil Market Getting ahead of itself, rallying ahead of the opecplus meeting . Jason i think it is, nejra, and is biggest indicator tha significantly higher than the daily risk. The differential right now is over 15 a barrel. That is an indication that the paper markets are not in communication with the physical market as much as they should be. Jra how bleak is the outlook for oil prices, jason . You recently updated your forecast. Jason it is pretty dire. The volatility prices are quite high as well. We are looking at demand the 12tion being in million barrel a day range in the second quarter. A 10 million barrel a day cut in opec still leaves you in an oversupplied market. That makes it very tough. We have a 35 forecast for the second quarter, but i would say the risk is downside. Nejra if you look at the oil majors, then, what does that mean in terms of the outlook for buybacks and dividends . Believe, eliminated all by and dividend increases in your models through 2025. Is that a little bit aggressive if you do expect some kind of recovery in oil prices before 2025 . Aggressive, but the key considerations are more related to the depth and duration of price downturn. If Oil Prices Stay below 40 a barrel for an 18month timeframe, a Balance Sheet repair will be a high priority for a a lot of these companies. The existing dividends are safe, but t