Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2024071

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 20240713

Near its session highs, ending the day with 1 moves in either direction. It looks like some of those could be coming back. We also had crude and oil markets rally and despite concerns that demand was off about 70 . Crude is up 1. 6 . As we know, the fte Energy Consultants have said that it could fall 8 Million Barrels a day in 2020. Cuts. S coming on supply the highyield market, as you can see we are up 2 or so. Strategists say the fed may be buying double b rated bonds. That would be in the junk category. We are seeing some of the highyield markets catch a bid. Now for deep analysis into the markets, joining me from los angeles on the phone is the Portfolio Manager of Causeway Capital management, which oversees a 37 billion. Sarah ketterer is the former morningstar manager of the year. On that note, it is great to have you. There have been many comparisons between 2020 relative to the financial crisis of 2008. You noted in 2008, a lot of the cyclicals over leaving us out of the bottom leading us out of the bottom. Are you seeing that this time around . Sarah we are, and we are encouraging our clients to look ahead and anticipate the recovery as markets do so effectively. It is very clear from looking at the data that the best performers in that early 2009 period, through the spring of 2011 before we went into the next crisis, which happened in europe in the financials in that stretch over two years, that was by far that was when the best performers were materials, consumer discretionary, financials with the banks having a big move, and value was much better than growth. The laggards were the areas of that have been doing very well , likes crisis now utilities, health care, consumer staples. They may be holding up the portfolios now, but they will lag as the markets anticipate economic recovery, as they did in that 2009 and onward time. Taylor you are looking at. Tocks like basf where do you find the Silver Lining in those companies in a moment like this that sometimes it feels like peak panic . Sarah to get those great material stocks you have to look for the ones with the best management and best franchises. Freeport is clearly a Global Leader in copper. One of the best positioned in the entire commodities world. It has a 30 year reserve life. It is irresistible at these prices. The idea we will not need copper is absurd. The electric vehicle revolution will push up demand for copper considerably. Ev contains 10 times the copper than an internal Combustion Engine vehicle. We are being handed the opportunity on a silver platter. They are ath basf, Global Leader in chemicals and materials. They have businesses and that span the gamut from Different Industries that they serve. That stock is off 33 this year to date. It was not expensive going into the crisis. So great businesses, wellpositioned, we want as many as we can get now. Theor are you using drawdowns to add in more positions . Sarah yes, you are spot on. All of the market volatility is being very disciplined with all of the market volatility, we are being very disciplined on price. Make sure the price is as attractive as possible, so that we get this the typo for recovery that clients expect. This market is giving us those opportunities. Some days are very bland, other days are depressing, but provide great price entry points. Taylor generally speaking, do you feel like dividends are safe . Sarah i would like to say that everything is safe, but it has not turned out that way with dividends. We have asked our European Bank companies to please do not pay the dividends now, even though we know they can. Some of them only pay once a year. The idea of conserving cash is paramount in a crisis like this, where we have never seen anything like these kinds of lockdowns globally, but we are convinced, again, with those companies with great franchises, and thinking about the banks, like citi in the u. S. Or barclays in the u. K. , they will be able to pay the dividends, a then the case of citi, share purchase program, once we get back to some normalcy. The key to the crisis is it is transitory. As long as you believe that, and we certainly do, then they dividends are coming back with a vengeance. Taylor want to transition into credit. If we think this might money is in bonds, and bonds price and events sooner than they do the equity markets, what is the bond market telling you . Highyield credit spreads are still at 880 basis points. That is better than 1100 basis points, which is where they were before, but it is not the days we had even some months ago. At 880 basis points, what is that telling you . What is the credit market telling you . Sarah the credit market is finally pricing risk appropriately. We have had plenty of corporate leverage,way too much financial leverage, which is another this is the right pricing for a lot of these stocks. Many of them are in the Energy Industry and they have had access to cheap gearing for many years. But we are not worried about the whole Credit System at all, nor will the banks bear the brunt of this like in the last crisis. It is the opposite. There is over 10 trillion of stimulus globally and there is also quantitative easing that is growing. We will end up after this with the companies that have the Balance Sheets able to they will be able to take market share from those that have poor financial situations. This is important criteria to have in your stock selection, look for financial strengths because it is very important in this environment. Taylor strategist had a note that after buying investment grade, the credit could also maybe start to look at the bb market. They would not be buying the single bs, or the junkie asked of the junk, but they could be looking at dipping their toes into the job market. If you think that you buy what the fed is buying, if they are implicitly providing a floor, do you then also by buy junk . Sarah i can speak from an Equity Perspective only. And some of our companies are going to end up i will give you in example. Our colleagues spoke today with the ceo of rollsroyce, one of the four large aircraft engine aircraft manufacturers globally. The debt downgrade going to dissuade your suppliers and customers from working with you . He said, no, our industry eve ryone is getting downgraded. Rollsroyce went into the crisis with a great budget Balance Sheet. In some of these industries, there has been an absolute shutdown in the revenues. So the whole supply chain, the whole ecosystem is not making money. And that is very unusual. Perspective,ve rollsroyce is still looking good versus pierce. And i do not see a downgrade, nor does the company, according to the ceo. They do not think it will have much of an impact on their business. They have much bigger fish to fry right now. Taylor i want to get your thoughts on Bernie Sanders ending his president ial campaign today. That effectively means it will be donald trump versus joe biden. What does that mean for the equity markets, if you can think about how this will play out up until november . Sarah well, the campaigning will be very confined. Frome may not hear much either candidate until we get beyond this crisis period and these lockdowns. That is the big debate we are having internally. And we have had it with our clients, how long can the Global Economy withstand this lack of activity. Not that the president will take the blame, nor the challenger, but one way or another the voters will want the money back in their pocketbook. And the government subsidy cannot go on that much longer. Thanks to the ceo of Causeway Capital management. This headline now coming from new jersey. New jersey saying the one day deahths have reached a record. Over 270 fatalities. This after the new york governor said that they had suffered the highest single day death toll, but falling hospitalization rates are starting to show ere. Ilization hr now other headlines with mark crumpton. Mark there could be a second wave of Coronavirus Infections in the u. S. If people do not follow the guidelines. Dr. Deborah birx says the Response Team has told the today show that if people start going out again and socially interacting too soon, the spread of the virus could pick up steam. There have been about 400,000 cases in the u. S. , about 13,000 deaths. Security officials in both the u. S. And United Kingdom are warning about cyberattacks using the coronaVirus Outbreak as a lure. One example includes emails that appear to come from the world health organization, others are phishing attempts coming from microsoft or other tech companies, whose remote tools are often used by people working from home. There are signs of a setback in italy. The number of new coronavirus cases rose to the highest level in three days, complicating the governments plans to possibly start using a month long walk down next week. New cases in italy in the past 24 hours totaled 3836, compared with 3039 the previous day. Italy has more than 139,000 confirmed cases of the virus. In france, there is news of what is likely the first legal challenge to a virus containment measure. A court blocked the curfew, saying it was not justified in paris. It can the same day that authorities anger locals by expanding the lockdown in the french capital. The number of coronavirus cases in france is about 110,000, more than 10,000 people have died. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Taylor this is Bloomberg Markets. The sentiment among u. S. Small businesses collapsed in march by the most on record. One company affected by the drop is angie home services. It has over 250 Small Businesses in its network, which represents approximately 2 million employees at risk in this current global crisis. E ceo joins us on the phone from indiana. I want to start with a letter that you wrote to congress. It asked for Financial Aid to help the 250 thousand Small Businesses in your network. Have you heard back . Prosa a lot of the home that we see our 520 people. These organizations are super tiny. It is really important to think about how we are helping organizations and industries. Taylor what does simple and easy to access look like to you, because we know the Small Business association has been overloaded. How do you improve the process and cut out the redtape . What does that look like to you . Angela a couple things. I think there is an opportunity for the administration to set aside dollars based on the size of the businesses, because this a visitation of the folks applying will be different. Some companies have already and haveor loans experience, but for the Smaller Companies with may 2 or three employees, and experiencing something that has never been seen before, are trying to figure out how to do it. They may not even have a banking relationship. How do we get in contact with those Small Businesses, how do we make it easy for them to access these funds . It could be incredibly overwhelming. Taylor your business is unique. We think of electricians, plumbers who try to go into your home, and obviously during these times when we are practicing social distancing, they may not be able to come into your home to do necessary repairs. What do you tell people in your network . What are they saying to you . Angela a couple things. Types ofnumber of the businesses on home advisor and angies list are actually essential businesses. Manyricians and plumbers, times and they are is essential because if your water heater is leaking all over your floor, you cannot wait a few weeks. What has been really impressive with talking to the pros is how they are incorporating the cdc guidelines on how to make sure that they are being save for their customers, as well as employees. Doing things from making sure they are wearing protective gear, doing extra sanitizing. A a lot of their interaction is on telephone or through videoconferencing. And really taking care and listening to their customers, so that they are comfortable and safe during those interactions. Taylor thanks to angela hicks from angi homeservices. Still ahead, focusing on cash. Ssan. On the shift in ni we will have a conversation with the coo, next. Taylor nissan wants to make better use of their assets and conserve cash. We spoke with the coo on the recovery plan. Inhwani i think that focusing the closer is not the end of the business, it is the start of the rebirth of misbranded. And we are getting into indonesia with our dna of suv suv, whichth the new is kicks. And we need to serve the 300,000 customers that are driving the nissan cars in indonesia. Thear as , we will stop for the time being, but with our strategy we hope that we will come back with our facility in indonesia. Taylor when it comes to your u. S. Business, we have seen nissan now putting 10,000 u. S. Workers on furlough. You have called this a temporary layoff. Does that mean you will be rehiring all of them after the pandemic is over . Ashwani absolutely. The plants are closed because we are thinking of the people first. This is what we did in europe, then in the u. S. We are following the regulations and practices of each country. Islor what about what the current environment for the introduction of new models, in particular the new rogue . Ashwani the new models are the activists for our growth. We are continuing our new Model Development because we do believe that once the Customer Confidence and market confidence comes back, we will be utilizing our new products and new technologies to get the momentum once again in the business. With all the pandemic concerns, it feels like the evergreen worries have taken a backseat, but what are you doing to prepare for brexit . What lies in the future in england, given the absence of trade talks at the moment . Would you be looking at a closure of that size . Ashwani basically, one month before i did have the opportunity to visit there. Send land has a great history for nissan. We have been there for 20 years and we have produced more than 10 million cars there. We have created a new segment in europe, which is called crossover suv. Whichently launched juke, is really doing great in europe. As far as nissan is concerned, we are continuing with our regular business in europe using that plant. However, we as nissan always follow the local business practices. And the impact on the brexit could change the landscape we do the business in in europe. However, we do believe that anticipating the impact, it can have a knowing that nissan is the biggest car manufacturer in i donited kingdom and believe the talks between europe and United Kingdom will be business friendly for the auto market. When it comes to managing cash for nissan, we have seen you struggling a bit when it comes to downgrades, raising the cost of capital. How will your Balance Sheet look if this pandemic goes for much longer than the summer or fall . Ashwani obviously, you know, there are all kinds of circumstances that are putting a challenge on our financial situation. However, with the support of our support,d government we are continuing with our operational cash management. And we do believe with what is all happening today, it is challenging, but not impossible. And we are continuing with our regular operations under these circumstances. Taylor that was the nissan coo. From new york, this is bloomberg. These days you need faster internet that does all you expect and way more. Thats xfinity xfi. Get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. And now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device thats connected is protected. Thats a 72 a year value. No one else offers this. Faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. Can your internet do that . Live, sharing on. To sessionrging highs with the s p 500 back in bull market territory. This amid further signs of the spread of the coronavirus might be easy. The death toll is still on the rise in the epicenter of the outbreak. New york and new jersey reporting their deadliest days so far. Stimulus,r round of Congressional Democrats pushing for another 500 billion in spending. Steve mnuchin calls for action from both chambers. What it means for the Global Supply chain. We will speak with the chairman for the center of global enterprise, the former ceo of ibm. That conversation is coming up next. First, lets look at how markets are trading. We are seeing u. S. Stocks gaining ground with s p 500 now a session at session highs. This despite the fact that new york and new jersey surpassed their records on daily deaths. We heard from dr. Fauci saying the start of a turnaround could come after this week. We can see some more positive sentiment in the markets with the nasdaq at its highest in about a month. We also have 10year gilts at their highest yield at their highest in a week. This is ahead of the opecplus talks planned for thursday. The g20 meeting of Energy Ministers will be on friday. As countries around the world try to mitigate the economic fallout of this pandemic, japan earmarking more than 2 billion of a stemless package to specifically help Companies Shift Production out of china. This as the coronavirus disrupts manufacturing worldwide. How will Global Supply chains evolve post pandemic. On the phone is the former chairman and ceo of ibm. Now working with a private Research Institution focused on corp

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