Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close July 13, 2024

Angela merkel may be pouring a little bit more cold water on that idea in the last hour. Vonnie absolutely. It is hard to understate the extent of the rally here. We have consumer durables leading this rally, up more than 7 in the s p 500. Itself is up 4. 4 . Even in the s p 500, the worst performing sector is up 1. 25 right now. The dollar index is up 0. 25 . A live at of weakness for the 1. 0785. Ding at the Canadian Dollar stronger today at 1. 4742. Guy lets get some more insight into what is happening with these markets, a little more context as to where we are potential he going. Mber, Global Market strategist at jp morgan asset management, joins us on the phone. Looking at what is happening around world, seeing signs that there may be stabilizations happening in a number of countries when it comes to coronavirus cases, then extrapolating that into the equity market, i am wondering whether that is a step too far. Hugh i would agree with you because i think at the moment, what we still really dont have a good grip on is the duration of the hit to activity. Clearly, the markets are more optimistic today and over the past couple of weeks, but i think theres a clear risk that we start to see second waves of outbreaks across different nations, and that really forces investors to start to reassess their assumption that this can be just a one or two quarter hit to activity, and then a sharp rebound from there. Until you can get a much better steer on how long lockdown measures are going to be required, it is hard to be bullish. Guy does credit look cheaper than equity . If i am looking to tiptoe back into the market, do i do it via the credit channel rather than the equity channel . Sure. I think the focus, regardless of if you are looking at credit or equity, has to be upping quality at the moment. Within the credit market, youre looking at ig falling under the emboli of centralbank support. As to where to go first, i think in the near term, credit feels like a safer bet because youre going to feel the effects of that Central Bank Intervention more quickly, but for longterm investors, if you are looking for returns over multiple years, clearly equities are the place to find money. I think it comes down to the question of time horizon. Vonnie jp morgan has been saying fade the release bounces. On your side of the bank, would you say the same thing . Im cautious on over extrapolating the shortterm moves because for me, i still think there are significant uncertainties as to how this plays out. One of the signals i will be watching for airy closely over chinaxt few weeks is how goes about lifting their lockdown measures and how quickly they can get their workers back to work while trying to keep a second wave of outbreaks under control. We are seeing stories over the weekend that actually, you are starting to see a few concerns rising again about the potential for that second wave of outbreaks, so i would expect china to give you an earlier lead on how this is going to play out across other developed markets. Vonnie ive been reading that as well, and it has been pretty obvious that markets are taking their cue from other market. We feel like maybe we are a couple of weeks behind europe. Certain countries in europe are a couple of weeks behind italy, and so on. For markets to do the same thing . Not everyone does this is him way,locks down the same gives stimulus the same way. We arehis is all what grappling with. These are unprecedented types of economic shocks, and therefore, all investors are really grabbing any data we can get our hands on to try and extrapolate how this is going to play out. For me, talking to our colleagues on the ground in asia, they are starting to see activity normalizing more quickly in the Manufacturing Sector than in the services think the question is absolutely right at the moment, which is how governments are going to try to back themselves out of the quarter they find themselves in. I think monitoring the news flow over the next couple of weeks as to how governments start to plan their exit from the lockdown strategies theyve implement it will give us a better steer on the type of recovery we might be looking at later in the year. At what is look happening around the world, clearly it is not easy to compare apples to apples and get the data to be consistent from region to region, country to country. Who is infigure out advance of others is very difficult. Nevertheless, there has been this kind of view that the dollar is the safe haven asset, and by extension, u. S. Equities are a safer haven asset then maybe other developed market equities. Is that the correct point of view . Im excluding the dollar here. Our u. S. Equities safer than european equities or some asian equities . Index composition is going to play a big role because really, what i am looking for at the moment in terms of the safest equity markets is those that have the strongest Balance Sheets. Typically, that is normally going to steer you towards the u. S. Over the developed markets. In addition, i think you have to look at financials within europe , and struggling to see the financials picking up until we start to see Government Bond yields rising for the right reasons, and yield curves starting to steepen further from here. For me at the moment, it is really that core for u. S. Versus europe and the stronger Balance Sheets of the tech sector at this stage. Guy that kind of takes us towards the tech arena. About whatnd think kind of sectors and what kind of secular trends are going to be accelerated by this process. If you try to pick advantage of that, what are you seeing . Hugh when you are looking at the next invest in cycle, it comes down to the pace you are looking at. If we are going to see a slow, steady recovery out of this, with perhaps Consumer Behavior taking it while to normalize, then to me, you are looking at your secular growers, your tech names as being really wellpositioned. If that rebound is going to be sharper and quicker, and momentum is going to pick up much more quickly, then perhaps that is where your value type names have a better chance. Absent that kind of shark pickup in growth, i think it is tech at the moment. Vonnie thank you for joining us today. That is hugh gimber, jp morgan asset management. A headline now crossing the bluebird. Rodrigo duterte of the philippines is likely to extend the lockdown in the philippines to april 30. Once again, sources telling bloomberg that Rodrigo Duterte is likely to extend the philippines lockdown to april 30. Lets get a deeper check of local markets of Global Markets with taylor riggs. Taylor this is the second straight monday that weve had major gains. A week ago, we had gains of about 3. 4 or so on the s p 500. Before that, mondays were usually posting losses. Hadnt sine you hadnt seen a gain going back since arch second since march 2. It is all about perspective. You are still down about 23 from the peak in february, so why we have come a long way, there is still nowhere near the highs weve had a month or two ago. Some of the optimism coming today on the Health Concerns about the virus. In a partnership, going to invest in the company to look at experiment were antibodies to either treat or prevent covid19. Sure Orasure Technologies also getting a boost from a test that uses fluid samples. Pharmaceuticals begin a Clinical Trial today that said Animal Studies showed promising immune responses. Those big pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Companies are gaining. As you can see, this is sort of a broadbased risk on sentiment. That means yields are higher by about six basis points or so on the 10 year. The vix continues to fall, now down to a 45 handle. We are now at the lowest on the vix since march 6. The dollar is seeing some weakening, as you mentioned. Gold is the one outlier, still a safe haven catching investors attention. You had seen a lot of Dollar Strength and selling off of gold. You are seeing some of the dynamics returned to normal correlation. Guy . Thankk you indeed you very much, indeed. Coming up a little later, i interview with austrias finance minister. His insights on stimulus measures for european economies, and what happens next at that eurogroup meeting tomorrow. This is bloomberg. Im guym london, johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news with viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin on capitol hill. Part of the fingerpointing threatening new steps to aid the economy. U. S. House speaker tbilisi says Donald Trumps slow response is costing lives. Senate jordi leader Mitch Mcconnell says Democrats Senate majority leader Mitch Mcconnell says democrats distracted the nation from a threat with the impeachment trial. President trump and Vice President mike pence pointing to a day by day reduction in deaths in new york. Still, the u. S. Surgeon general warning americans to brace themselves for tragedy. He says this week be the hardest and saddest of most americans lives. Spain reporting the lowest number of new cases in more than two weeks. As signs that europes largest outbreak is slowing. Deaths marks the lowest fatalities since march 24. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reportedly in good health. He spent the night in the hospital, where he is being treated for the coronavirus. His illness dealing a blow to the u. K. Business as the country repairs for the worst of the pandemic to hit. So far, almost 5000 people have died from covid19. Scientists say the peak of the outbreak is likely to hit within the next weeks. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Lets get to the latest now on the u. K. Government as Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains hospitalized with coronavirus. Newlyerg spoke with the appointed u. K. Shadow chancellor. Status ofer about the the Opposition Labor Party leader and whether he could join a wartime style government of national unity. I think it is very important at this time that we show that different Political Parties can work together, but in particular, make sure that the right support is in place for people who are under pressure, and to make sure that our Public Services are really delivering. Obviously, particularly our health care system. Wehink it is critical that have a very transparent and open approach. I think it is right that the opposition will raise question and put on the record where processes arent working. I think that is very important. We have continuously done that since the beginning of this crisis. I think we are going to want to continue to do that. There are Big Questions about things like testing, the availability of protective equipment, and we want to make sure that those issues are dealt with, and i think being quite open about that is going to be critical. You pointed to some of the potential holes in the package we have seen from the u. K. Chancellor. Unprecedented, really. Four emergency packages unprecedented, really, for emergency packages that would have been unimaginable for a conservative chancellor. Do the packages go far enough . What would you do differently . I welcome the packages that have been put in. They were necessary. It was quite right work with businesses to put them into place. Wouldveay that it been good if discussions couldve happened earlier, but at least we have now got the scheme in place. I think there are big issues the government needs to be looking at now. First of all, we need to be looking at how employers can be very strongly encouraged to take part in that furlough because we are seeing a number of them decide not to do that. Part of the reason for that was because a number of businesses are looking at fixed costs, which obviously arent covered. And inuld cover salaries arrears. Loan wasnt fit for purpose necessarily for that point of view. That has been changed to an extent. Hopefully that will meet tomorrow of that support so that businesses will be looking to keep those staff on and not shut up shop, but we really need to see government engaged on that question. It is not good enough just to announce that furlough scheme. See it protect jobs wherever possible. Guy that was the new u. K. Shadow chancellor here in the u. K. , the finance minister effectively. The much a believer in international process, dealing with the crisis that we are facing right now. Lets talk a little bit about whats is happening with Boris Johnson. The british Prime Minister in across the hospital river from 10 downing street. It will be interesting to see the locations in terms of what it means for the bridge government. Raphael joining us now. Boris johnson, the Prime Minister, is in hospital. Ashear that he is just there a precaution, but nevertheless, what are the applications for the running of the British Government and its response to the virus . Therese the government has been very careful about raising any kind of alarms about johnson going to hospital. They say it is purely precautionary. Johnson actually tweeted today. We have been told he is still in charge. I dont think there could be any doubt that if you have the leader of a country in the middle of the biggest crisis country has faced since world war ii, that the leader hospitalized, there are complications. It is difficult to run a country from a hospital bed. The question really is how long will be in hospital, and who is coordinating daytoday activity along with him because weve heard that various departments are beginning to clash over the tradeoffs that have to be made between the economy, which has basically been put on ice, and some of the Health Care Challenges in terms of testing, getting protective equipment for nhs workers. For now, we see dominic raab, the foreign secretary, chairing the covid19 meetings, but how long that could continue if johnson were really to be out of commission is an open question. Vonnie right. He had been enjoying high ratings, so what is happening now . Is he holding onto those ratings . And does the British Public have the right to know a little bit more . If hes in the hospital, does the public have the right to know if he is on a ventilator, for example . Therese that is a very interesting question. On the ratings, johnson got a boost after the election, a boost after brexit, and initially, there were a lot of doubts about how the government was handling the coronavirus crisis. ,hey then responded to those the criticism. There are daily news conferences. The Prime Minister took over responsibility. His tone very much changed, and i think public responded to that and were very supportive of the isolation measures. That doesnt mean that those Approval Ratings will necessarily continue. I think there have been huge questions around the inability to organize fast testing, and particularly about the shortages in protective equipment facing the health care workers, which is directly putting them at risk simply because the viral load you have in hospitals is higher than what most of us would have, so going out in the street the doctors and nurses that dont have protective equip and are at higher risk. I think the government were very supportive of the nhs, know how hard the nhs is working at this time tomorrow going to be rightly critical of the government. But how much do we really know about johnsons condition . It is an open question. If he returns to work and is healthy in the next 24, 30 six hours, i think people will feel they have been roughly kept in the loop. But if it drags on, i think there will be questions raised as to what sort of plan was really put in place and whether the public was kept properly informed, especially at this crucial time. Guy we will leave it there. Bloomberg opinion columnist therese rafael on the government here in the u. K. It would probably be nice if Boris Johnson found his way out of hospital. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, im vonnie quinn, along with guy johnson in london. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Equity markets are doing very nicely in the United States. The s p is up 4. 5 , the dow and the nasdaq up 4. 6 . Consumer durables are doing extra nearly well in the s p 500, up more than 7 . The likes of nike and the Apparel Companies doing well today. The vix down another little bit to 44. 7. We have a stronger dollar, and treasuries in the range they have been in for the last several weeks. Guy here in europe as we approach the end of the session, we are definitely on the upside. As you can see across europe, some real outperformance coming from germany. The car sector in particular a standout, with names like volkswagen. We have seen the docs retaking the 10,009 today. Ftse 100 up by nearly 3 , near session highs. Stocks doing well, the driver sector the travel sector doing well. We are seeing slightly lighter volume than normal, which is worth bearing in mind. European close is next. This is bloomberg. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading here in europe, a shortened week of course, friday and monday, youre about, united dates out on friday. Taking a look at where we are with this positive story session here in europe, we are near session highs at the end of the day. Up by 3. 76 for the stoxx 600, up 11g at a heavy 320, points today. In terms of the breakdown of us european equities, take a look, germany

© 2025 Vimarsana