Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close July 13, 2024

Looked like both the house and senate would be out next week and it would be difficult to get anything done fiscally in terms of legislation before next week. The timeline is getting pushed out. Because of that we lost all of our gains. 3 gains in some cases. Then we had some mike pence strategy from the meeting with insurers. At that meeting mike pence said there would be no surprises, there would be 4 million test sent out and there would be no copay. Insurers would waive copays. That gives the markets the idea we are going to get an accurate and quick assessment of those infected and those passing it on. We also heard President Trump Pay Lip Service to the fact that they were looking at the cruise industry and Airline Industry and that has stocks bouncing. The s p 500 up almost 1 . The 10 year yield, 60 basis points. Jim vogel out with some good levels saying there was a cluster around 55 and buying is concentrated in certain areas. It is trading within a 21 basis point range. The yen has given back some of its losses. Not quite as much of a safe haven as it was. Well be speaking with kitty. Ukes and a few moments guy it has certainly bounced back, but for how long. In europe, stocks are negative. We are down. The early gains have faded. We are down. 6 on the stoxx 600. When it comes to brent crude, up around 6 . Onare now only a little bit the bund contract, a little bit higher on yields. Five basis points. It used to be a lot, now it is a little. Nevertheless, we are seeing bunds on offer. Btps are catching a bid. Vonnie President Trump speaking moments ago on the coronavirus, saying progress is being made. Kevin cirilli is live on capitol hill. We heard mike pences strategy, not so much the fiscal effort. Kevin President Trump saying he is perfectly he is carefully paying attention to the cruise industry, though he did not provide specifics. We are anticipating some type of economic agenda rolled out within the next 12 hours or so. Beyond that, youre on capitol hill, top banking officials, including wells fargo testifying in the house of representatives as lawmakers continue to grapple with ways in which they might be able to alleviate some of the pain that has been caused by the coronavirus. The president likely to speak later today in which he will likely give some type of details. Ive spoken with several sources in the Financial Services sector throughout this morning, and all of them are saying the timetable from the white house as well as Congress Remains fluid and there does not appear to be a concrete any type ofow for cohesive meeting that could come this week. Meeting the top wall street executives as well as banking executives are expected at the white house within the next couple of days. Vonnie that is our chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. I believe you have some breaking news . Suspendingntal pending news hitting the tape. Occidental cutting its Capital Spending this after the slump in oil prices we have seen since the weekend. A very aggressive move. Its shares to the downside. Yesterday we were starting to chip into that. Unsurprisingly, given the debt this company is now carrying after the deal it did, occidental is being forced to make some moves to try and stabilize the balance sheet. Cutting its dividend and Capital Spending, trying to stabilize the ship. Lets talk about how governments are trying to stabilize the ship. European leaders are starting emergency videoconference right now. Italy remains on lockdown. Ryanair and British Airways suspending all flights to and from italy. The Spanish Government has done the same thing. London is going out with the budget tomorrow. The bank of england as well. We will have the ecb meeting on thursday. Christine lagarde will be on this afternoons videoconference between the eu leaders. Juckes,me on set is kit global strategist at socgen. What are you expecting from governments . It is easier to see positive physical action in the u. K. That it is from europe. Would be al reaction game changer in europe because they find it so hard to do. Because it is hard to do, it is hard to imagine that we get something together that is big enough. I was listening to the u. S. Peace and you get the sense that tocally the u. S. Is likely be good at helping alleviate the economic aftermath. The fight is do we help people or companies . Im not sure what they will do about avoiding the spread and getting enough tests out fast enough. Guy is that one needs to happen for markets to find some degree of calm that we are starting to get around understanding what the extent of the virus is going to look like and how much damage it will do . Kit this is like his nominee rolling from east to west around the world. It will be ons is the others have the atlantic before we are much older. I am not sure what we can do other than wait and see how that plays out. Good news in terms of how fast it is true, low debt rates. Good news at the human level would be genuinely good news in terms of disruption. That is parallel to the other two things. The oil thing and the physical response, government the fiscal response, government policy response. The rates bank is not sure it helps, what else they can do. We are more confident in the u. K. And u. S. That something can be done on fiscal policy quickly. Vonnie i think you put your finger on it. We have the human response ready now, it sounds like it is quite a strong response. There will not be any copays, there will be 4 million test sent out. That is persuading the market we have some idea of the scope and scale of this problem. It may not be wonderful to the insurers. What kind of response would be necessary if it were to be accurately assessed in terms of how big of a problem it is . Kit i think it will require a sizable fiscal easing. Whatever happens, we can see the empty hotels, empty restaurants, empty airports, empty shops around the place. People particularly in the gig economy who will not get paid. People who will not get paid because they are looking after children because schools are closed. All of that needs a response, and you can do it well or badly. That will roll through. It needs to be fast and it needs to be big. Even if it is only shortlived, there are people who are going to be genuinely struggling in quite a big way for a long time afterwards. Vonnie we have seen violent moves in the currencies and treasury market. Now that we have the beginning of response, or the violent moves over . Kit very unlikely they will be over. , yesterday inves tenyear note yields the falls were of the same order of magnitude as the biggest falls 1982, forand 9, 1987, everyone to remember that fallback. We are starting from a lower base. You cannot keep moving at that speed. I do not think we are done with dancing around on information. We will have days when the 10 year note yields are up and days like today when they go up and then come back down. We have volatility because we have so much uncertainty. 1981, the u. S. 10 year yield it 15. 84 basis points. 15 in 1981, 60 basis points now. Let me get that right. What is to say the numbers will go negative . Kit i think there is every chance he goes negative. We have gone negative japan, negative and europe. What it would we go negative in the United States . If you track that note from 1981 until now, every great cycle would see a lower high in 10 year long bond yields. They have mostly peaked for the cycle before fed funds peaked all the way down, but they have kept on going down the hallway. Whole way. 2009 ishave seen since it is hard to fulfill the promise of normalizing. I am not sure anyone is trying. They will not try unless we have significant inflationary pressures. There are no inflationary pressures . Kit no. We will get low inflation going through. Guy stick around. Kit juckes joining us from socgen. Vonnie here is kailey leinz. Kailey at the moment we are in the grain. It has been a very wild session. I want to remind us what we have seen than the past 24 hours. We had the worst day since the financial crisis yesterday, and then overnight the s p 500 dropped so low it wouldve taken into bear market territory. With trumps promise of fiscal stimulus we saw a rebound this morning. It triggered a Circuit Breaker because we were up more than 5 . Then throughout the course of the session, we have lost a lot of our gains. We slipped into negative territory, but now we are back up. The dow and the s p 500 higher by 1 . The market cannot decide how it feels about the prospect of the stimulus versus the timing of it. What it will do to combat the coronavirus. That prospect is still taking the stoxx 600 lower by. 4 in europe. What is done a better job of holding onto its gains is crude, up more than 7. 5 after the biggest drop for oil since 1991. Even though todays gains are the strongest we have in about six months, we have a long way to go before crew to seize any kind of recovery to the selloff we have seen. Crews down in eight of the last 10 weeks. Nearing 20 . I should say the Energy Sector was one of the leaders earlier in the session. It is not the case anymore. I want to check at one stock in particular. Shares have been halted pending breaking news. They are down with the oil selloff. The news today is that occidental is slashing its dividends for the first time in 20 years. That comes as the company is severely under pressure with shrinking oil prices and shrinking its quarterly payout just . 11, down from . 79. Vonnie and 86 drop. Kailey leinz, thank you for that overview. Function on the bloomberg allows you to catch up on charts focused on the show. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. I am guy london, johnson. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check in with first word news with mark crumpton. Mark President Trumps team has been working on a potential economic stimulus package for 10 days but was not yet prepared to provide specifics. Bloomberg has learned the president surprised members of his administration by promising to unveil a package today. The proposals expected to include a payroll tax cut and is shortterm expansion of paid sick leave to help calm markets that have been battered by the coronavirus outbreak. With the coronavirus now and at least 100 countries, Health Officials say the global shortage of medical masks is likely to get even worse. The shortage is leading governments to jockey for supplies, including the united stockpilingh is come and germany and south korea, with have banned exports altogether. Health officials warned that restrictive trade measures could worsen the shortfall and make poorer nations more vulnerable to the spread of the virus. Putinn president vladimir is setting the stage to be able to stay in power until 2036 speaking to lawmakers today, Vladimir Putin says he backs a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow him to seek another term in office. The current law limits president s to two consecutive terms. Current putins sixyear term expires in 2024. He dashed turkey says the eu should stop stringing it along when it comes turkey says the eu should stop stringing it along when it comes to the migrants on its border. Turkey wants eu to shoulder more of the burden for turkish refugees. Let sides have agreed to review a 2016 deal. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you for that. Back with us from london is kit juckes. I am looking at the Canadian Dollar. 771 ading at 1. 30 1. 3071. What happens to currencies that are oil per related that are oil correlated . Kit i think they go down. If everyone sat down and reached a new deal, than they would bounce quickly. On the more likely outcome the major producers of a contract for supply, we are going to sit in the lower range for oil prices. Last time brent was trading at these levels, dollar was trading at 140, not one already seven. The Australian Dollar and the norwegian krone are as weak as they have been. I am less pessimistic about the Australian Dollar has been punched in the face by so many things in the last while. I feel it probably cannot go much lower than this. The Canadian Dollar i liked on january 1 and i now think of prices stay here it has further to fall. David the mexican peso vonnie the mexican peso is at 21. The yen is a separate kettle of fish. The last time we were looking at currencies this closely was because of trade. Did we ever get back to trade concerns or are we now in chrome coronavirus and oil concerns for this a viewable for the foreseeable future . Kit we will not get back to trade until we get the economic aftermath of the coronavirus. Right now we have had the Foreign Exchange device to the oil price fall, probably bigger than to the coronavirus because it is such a big surprise on saturday should the big question around the speed of the response to the coronavirus and the economic aftermath. What has brought a long period of Dollar Strength to an end in all probability. Well have to get back to trade because we will wonder what happens to global trade after all of this. Have we cd trade . That is a question for another day. Tomorrow. What are you expecting . Andssibility of fiscal monetary action at the same time . Kit it is possible. We used to get rate moves announced by the chancellor when i was a younger man. We could go back to mark carney could come on the line and just announce it. A proactive physical response entirely focused on virus reaction with the monetarys response that is not just rate cuts but selling more practical in terms of how you have to solve things. I think that just makes sense. Guy Christine Lagarde is currently on a call with the eu leaders. This is the job she was brought into do, to get europe to get its act together and come up in some sort of physical response to the problem the eu is currently suffering. Do you think she is pleased today . If she does not succeed today, how difficult will her job be on thursday . How difficult were will her job be getting the Government Council on do anything. Kit how long does it take to learn how to herd cats to this degree . And it is a big herd. I hope so but im at the stage of i hope rather than i have any genuine confidence. Becauseo come and will you cannot ignore this. The italians will be shrieking for it. , the ecb nothing today can come in with the kind of targeting help it will need to offset some of the negative effect of some of the low rates in yields. The idea you can create a significant demand boost through cheaper money in europe today, i do not see it. I do not see how that works. Vonnie what is the Federal Reserve due next week . Kit i think they cut, dont they . The fed is probably working yet what should we be doing that is ,ore targeted, more helpful more working toward the specific. Roblems because of that the fed can cut and probably will cut your vonnie that is kit juckes. This is bloomberg. Vonnie we are up good, 1. 3 on the dow, 1. 5 on the s p 500, and those are not even the highs of the session. We are awaiting potentially more stimulus announcements. We did get mike pences strategy for having the insurers waive fees and making sure 4 million tests go out. It is looking more positive for the market, in terms of coronavirus diagnosis. The president also making comments regarding the cruise liners and the Airline Industry is up 6 . Mgm up 7 . Those are higher. I did want to point out Occidental Petroleum had desperate days. T is of 8 it will cut the dividend by 86 . Guy a real spread in europe in terms of the performances we are seeing. The ftse 100 is in positive territory and north of 6000. Bp and shell adding to the upside. The dax is down. 5 . Take a look at madrid. The italian markets, the spanish market, both down over 2 . 2. 4 in madrid right now. The european closes next. This is bloomberg. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading in european equities. The ftse 100 and positive territory. Bp and shell doing well. Hsbc also having a pretty good day. You see what is happening in spain and italy, those markets are down by 2 , 2. 5 . You can see we hit our highs two hours into the session today. We will seeion that serious policy action is generally driving things at the moment. We are in the midst of this call taking place with european leaders right now, but it does not seem like it is being done with the shock and awe that the market is looking for. Down by. 9 in europe. 336. Ftse 100 in positive territory. Bp, shell bouncing back today. That is were the gains are from a points point of view. Really fading into the close today, the market down by nearly 3 . We will see what the final numbers look like later on. It is obvious, we are seeing a little bit of a reverse from yesterday. Mind, it is being faded rapidly. The Mining Sector is up by 1. 9 . Oil and gas up by 1. 5 . Todaynks are back up after a horrible day yesterday. The insurance sector is trading up. Market, let mehe show you what is going on. Utilities. We are basically rotating out of the bond proxy names. Real estate trading lower. Staples lower as well by 1. 5 . Travel and leisure, you are seeing some movement to help out the airlines. Having to ground aircraft will hurt. You cannot stimulate demand with prices at this time. You simply have to put aircraft on the ground. In terms of names weve been watching, we are seeing health care come back today. The u. K. Names helping out the ftse 100, bp up 1. 4 . Hsbc up by 2. 27 . Sector hitnd oil hard yesterday, some of that coming back alleys for the european market. That is the european close. It is the same macro themes heavier we are trading on here in the u. S. , but a different response, given we are closer to a fiscal response here in the u. S. We did get done roundtable with the insurers and mike pence putting out some measures to at least get people tested without having to pay copays, which will give us an idea of the scale and scope of the coronavirus. We are now erasing some of our gains again, but a lot

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