surveillance," i'm francine lacqua in london. she targeted bloomberg, but she said about this appointment? have they been for it or have a lot of the focus who know the had punches for pete and for amy. they had questions? axel: first, you can see the markets will be no the banks. "surveillance." but the question is, bloomberg was surging and biden was a joining as now, ebrahim rahbari. reaction of the stock has been on the markets will be in positive. distressed candidate. i ways think it is very does this shift the narrative, important when there are some polling? the banks. conventional wisdom tells you changes, the market has the debates do not tend to move stocks down some 0.2%. first reaction which was in voters' opinions, but this one general positive. clients have questions around was very fractious, very we did have corporate warnings. the process but i have not passionate. tom: what is so important here, what does wiki yen indicate to received feedback that was we are looking at that angle. outright negative. we repeat a caucus like in iowa. yen -- week yen -- weak we have gotten a lot of encouraging feedback i caucus,view the iowa investors. -- by investors. up next, our exclusive, indicate to your global system? new hampshire -- normal. wide-ranging conversation with now we have another caucus in ebrahim: that is one of the big many detailed questions that you the votto. chief executive carlos mussina, what is the importance for these cannot answer on the day of the topics in fx and the weakness bloomberg? x announcement of a transition focusing on the consolidation has three factors. that would basically take almost the entire year. it is a reflection of broader one thing i can promise you, we and what he wants to do with ubi. dollar strength so it is not we will also talk about ubs's will make this an orderly just against the yen. process that basically will work we continue to see a big grab new chief executive with the out for the better of our clients and the bank. the congressional for yields out of japan, chairman, and that is coming up a little bit later on. that is what i am committed to. francine: thank you so much, the japanese investors trying to let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with we dotee -- in nevada, ship money abroad because viviana hurtado. interest rates are so low. ubs chair axel weber speaking to viviana: we are going to go back we have seen some impact from not have clear polling around what is going to happen. us after the announcement of a to the top story. right now sanders is the 2-1 the latest developments on the new ceo. japanese economy that adds to the weakness of the consumption new ceo.g a lead on biden. we will have plenty more on the people are talking about how side last year. banking sector and a couple of he will succeed the ceo from this could be a state that plays foreign-exchange checks with very well for warren, but we there are some japanese factors at the heart of yen weakness. november 1. could be in for more surprises ebrahim rahbari of citi. tom: how does the medical he has had a nearly three decade on saturday yet again. tom: this is incredibly ♪ career at ing. virall edgy -- medical he is poised for a big raise. important in that you don't have good polling in nevada, do you? the dutch lender paid him about : no.ay $2 million a year. got $14the former ceo it is really who shop shows up e ology affect the flows of million in 2018. money into safe haven dynamics? the u.s. federal reserve looks ebrahim: we tend to see two firmly on hold. day -- really who shows up on the day. comes amid concerns about a dynamics. they may not have a candidate in persistent under shoot of the central bank's inflation goal the lead, and then they shift to rates markets and commodities warren. markets have responded strongly we have a lack of clarity telling us what could happen on so it has reinforced lower for and they coronavirus outbreak is saturday. longer. francine: you are right on one not helping. prices are likely to stay commodities prices have point, just looking at the retreated significantly. subdued as global demand democrats and the fact that they weakens. are going at each other in this at the same time, investors have south korea reported its first sort of way -- does the been willing to bet on a fatality from the coronavirus, v-shaped recovery so they think democratic party, whoever the amid a surge of cases. two people from a quarantined the effect will be transitory. candidate is, does he or she as a broader level impact, it cruise ship in japan has died. stand a chance against donald trump? lindsay: there is a very real has not shaken risk impact and the total death toll has risen risk that the democratic party to more than 2100. is facing a delayed start in has a little impact on global more than 75,000 people are now effect. their general election, and francine: are they wrong about infected worldwide. in the latest democratic debate, trump is ready. we know that. it? is there a complacency about it he has historic numbers turn out for him in iowa and new because we have never seen this former new york mayor michael hampshire, primaries that does before? bloomberg coming under sustained 2003 sars we had a much attack. not really matter because he was going to windows p he has a the focus deflecting some of the different chinese economy. bigger warchest than obama had heat senator bernie sanders ebrahim: we are sympathetic to might have otherwise faced as the current front runner. mr. bloomberg's recent rise in the idea that the markets are for his reelection in 2012. mildly excessively sanguine about the risk the market poses the polls have shaken up the democratic race. flags for the of course, michael bloomberg is -- virus poses, because the democratic party, that they will the founder and majority owner need to address and face as he of bloomberg lp, the parent goes into the general in supply chain risks are hard to company of bloomberg news. november. francine: who do you think will the white house denying it offered julian assange a pardon. assess and we do not know how be the democratic candidate? could it be someone not on the the virus will play out. debate stage yesterday? spokespersonial lindsay: i think it will be we do think we saw a bit of a saying it is "a total lie." turn for the better for saidn assange's attorney someone on the debate stage. inflection point in global i don't think it will be stier growth around the turn of the or gabbard. year, and we think markets are -- told a french court that they will leave quickly. fed up in a way with the global president trump offered him there is a high likelihood that it will be a brokered search for yield, wanting to buy clemency if he "play ball." convention, which is remarkable. francine: eric has been not the dip, that is a persistent -- "played ball." and powerful phenomenon. this is bloomberg. agreeing. i want to hear what you think. we do not think it will be >> i am wondering who of these vulnerable to small shocks. francine: what does this mean francine? --didates would be the most francine: thank you so much. for renminbi? ebrahim: at one level, we think let's get straight to our i think it is bloomberg. exclusive interview since his appointment back in 2013, carlow the economic impact on china will be quite significant and in protectionist. mussina has overseen a steadily general we think that should would you agree with that? weigh on exchange rates in the rising share price at italy's region. biggest bank. but this week's 4.9 billion euro certainly bloomberg is we still think the renminbi is not a good policy tool, not a offer took markets by surprise. the ideations deal would be pro-business, as a centrist. viable instrument for china to it is important to keep in mind use. one of the biggest that some of them are untested it's sentiment is poor. a weaker renminbi pushes money on these issues, so we do not know what a pete buttigieg consolidations. out of china and we are still presidency would look like for i'm pleased to be joined by the business. we have a better sense of biden chief executive of intense us talking with the u.s. about and his moderate lane, thatat ws trade issues and currency issues and follow carlo messina. so we do not think it will do much to the renminbi. tom: what does it do to your or warren. i know it is very busy days for but again, it is an unknown economics? you. one of the great things, you what have investors told you quantity that we are dealing with. >> you mentioned early on the about the move austin mark what guys are fungible across do they like and what do they left,the extreme question? carlo: so, good morning. equities, bonds, currencies, middle-of-the-road. commodities, you and deutsche investors like the move. you do not activate the middle bank are in that group. democrats. the designing of the move. is there also the possibility of in, fx is a litmus paper supervisor that the a middle candidate but you don't end up -- for this kind of global slowdown want the european bank to be lindsay: it is distantly we are having. ebrahim: even when it comes to francine: this is bloomberg ' voters doat sanders consolidated. our forecast, the one that catherine mann overseas, clearly "surveillance." we are back with not want to show up for biden or ebrahim rahbari of citi. we are ratcheting down global i want to talk about pound the points in the transaction is bridges. there is a real risk there. growth forecast. tom: she nailed this. francine: we got the because there has been a lot going on. conversation started. continue. ebrahim: the temporary shock fell, datad and then that it is creative. they all stay with us. pointing to more inflation and we can create value for both. michael bloomberg is the founder delays what we think is the slightly stronger retail sales. and majority owner of bloomberg gradual stabilization of growth. we are expecting extra stimulus lp and the parent company of we do not think it derails it. from the new chancellor. it is absolutely positive from tom: if the shock were our side. francine: when you talk about where do you see the pound bloomberg news. let's from the going? ebrahim: the pound is probably regulators, can you tell us if coronavirus. transitory, define it. the victims were described as ebrahim: the assumption is this you think the ecb is 100% behind japanese citizens in their 80's. the most interesting currency in will be perhaps the length of a the g10 space and we remain the move? south korea also reported its francine,is clear, few months so sometime toward sterling bulls. first totality. china says the death toll from the first half of the year we the virus is now more than 2100. assets,ation of u.k. the total number of confirmed should start see the that it is impossible for a bank pre-existing trend. like us, one of the strongest cases of the disease is equities and real estate are cyclern in the inventory approaching 75,000 people. anks in europe, to make now to germany, shootings that attractive and global managers to reestablish itself. are underexposed to the u.k.. killed 11 people. tom: ebrahim rahbari with us the most interesting story is transaction without any positive from citigroup. whether we can see a major implications from the they are being treated as a supervisor. terror attack. a gunman was among those found policy change in the u.k. around the watch for the budget and maybe see them transaction is completely dead in a town outside follow in the footsteps of the frankfurt. the suspect left behind a video various century european leaders in brussels. u.s. in 2016, a major, growth in line with the supervisor. and a letter, referring to the we have axel weber coming up at friendly policy. the bottom of the hour and we neede end, i think what we "extermination of certain people." have mr. so really -- mr. we think the chances are pretty the paper says some of the good. is to create european champions victims were kurdish. it may take some time to play bt we end with president donald vegas. coming up in las that can create with the players trump. he will appoint the current that are based in the usa and ambassador to germany to be the few months as the europeans are china and our move is the first director of national this is bloomberg. ♪ intelligence. ave in europe that can create he tangled with officials on a preoccupied, but sales could be number of occasions. catalyzing in the sterling has demanded that german stream. francine: what does that mean stronger champion. in my expectation, other companies leave iran, also warning them on leading a longer-term? transactions can follow in the if you have a trump style next month. russian gas pipeline. stimulus on the u.k. economy, you were talking highest-ranking you see inflation come up. instead of a cut people are about more transactions in the next month, would it be gay official in the trump talking about, we could see an something that intesa would be administration. interest rate raise when we are global news 24 hours a day, on doing or do you expect it to be air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than the catalyst for more 2700 journalists and analysts in consolidation austin mark -- more than 120 countries, i'm viviana hurtado. negotiating and possibly going this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. to wto rules. ebrahim: despite being german, i consolidation? > carlo: carlo: i think we can the fireworks last night in las vegas very evident, some of that do not worry much about the be the catalyst. upside risks of inflation. touching on the history of the for aal driver different nominees. in south mr. buttigieg the u.k. is still relatively open. the exchange will play a role in consolidation that can create bend on who is a democrat. synergies. not seeamericans do that inflation. to create synergies, you have to where they fit, between a the pound will be relatively concentrate on an area where it is possible to create synergies. socialist who thinks capitalism fiscal even that is the root of all evil and a stimulus would not be associated with much of a pickup, and the democrat who thinks money should bank of england can be you can announce your profitability through cost be the root of all power. reduction. relatively relaxed about those let's go to somebody who lives prospects. and works in a middle-class movepectation is that this neighbor would -- neighborhood. we will see a change of leadership of the bank of england and my expectation is can also add some positive let's vote to her actually a democrat. they will work more closely with impact for other players in ♪ europe. the prime minister than previous will not makeo leadership. francine: thank you so much, other moves in europe because ebrahim rahbari of citi. ♪ the real driver is the creation of synergies. leveraging, it is something of the business model. with this possible acquisition from 960 billion , 1.1 trillion euros. we are now and can become a clear leader in europe also by wealth management protection. it is the key driver of success for intesa sanpaolo. francine: have you spoken to investors of ubi or are there dangers that they will block it? carlo: i don't want to speak with investors of ubi, specifically those investors, because this is a market transaction. i don't want to enter into discussion with single investors. in talking with my investors. probably, there could be a combination of investors. my point is that it is a completely market related transaction. that is my point of these transactions. that is the evidence of leadership in any case. demonstrated we can be a leader in europe, also in creating transactions that could surprise europe and italy probably for the first time in the last years is now a star in europe and the banking sector. demonstrating that in our the abilitycan have to take responsibility to try to propose transactions. francine: is this why you went hostile? , this definition >> if you are president, the first thing you do the first day is rejoined the paris agreement. is singular from the perception ♪ this is just ridiculous. this is bloomberg soon america's responsibility is of the outside. to be the leader in the world, i was responsible to make an and if we don't, we are going to acquisition in a different way. "surveillance," tom and francine if you make a merger, you can get hurt as much as anybody from london and new york. talk about hostile or friendly. we found out ubs was naming an else. that is why i don't want us to andou make an acquisition outsider, ralph hammers, from cut off all relationships with china because you will never ing. we talked to hundreds of solve this problem without this was, to put it mildly, a investors, how it is impossible china, india, western europe, , there are a lot of and america. getting hisloomberg surprise, and he will succeed the ceo of ubs. implications. bearings after a really difficult start, particularly with senator warren of a lot are wondering if this the only way to make an massachusetts. means a change in strategy. acquisition is to make a proposal and then to discuss in i should mention that michael he surprised analysts because of bloomberg is our founder and the a positive or negative way on his limited experience and the target. principle of bloomberg and investmentnt television and radio. our founders today are lindsay newman, found a political theory ubi is a wealth management for us with chatham house. banking. erik nielsen with unicredit. company. question the into a good management team. i'm ready to have the people let me go to you. strategy at ubs going forward? we ignore you last block. sonali: it sure does. working as part of our family, let me cut to the chase. ♪ giving them opportunity and if i was an investment banker your world is the litmus paper supple world and i across the globe, i would be making them part of it. afraid for my job. i have a couple of would suggest the political a lot of global banks have seen alix: the bad news everything world of las vegas and other more questions. charleston in a week as well. retail and corporate banking executives rise up the ranks. rally. what is the plan if this bid market -- whatld bank of america set to go all in fails? carlo: so, plan b. is investment banking going to markets keep is the yield market saying about be a core part of the business? global slowdown? at ubs, they have been spending intesa sanpaolo is already such there are some fears a lot of time merging those cutting rates. a strong company that we will efforts because retail clients, sees a successor to sergio around coronavirus, around the continue to deliver our results. fact that inflation is not wealth clients end up feeding ermotti. coming up, and therefore yields business into the investment and democrats beat each other always between the number bank. tom: we do not have a lot of up. are remaining low to add to this three and number four bank in time for this. over the last few days there presidential hopefuls spar in we really value your view. the ninth debate as senator the euro zone by market cap. there seems to be a lot of we can become number three or buyers from foreign countries a buys nothing more than senators emerges as the who are chasing u.s. treasuries candidate to beat. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak". number four and we can continue for the high yield and greater of technology skill? to deliver our results. protection for portfolios. we need to be more like j.p. the u.s. political debate is there are two ways to look at we have a plan we are continuing morgan and the guys doing what is happening in the market. probably a little bit remote on technology so they got more to deliver. we will have continuing technology? we are still worried about the that side of things at the moment. sonali: technology is a huge pimco --ave gotten a want to saybut i v-shaped recovery out of china. significant solid capital key-dollar breaking below positions. that is our position. on thisly positive levels, but still grinding lower you people were very cautious and i would suggest that maybe something about ralph hammers. transaction. he had reached out to at $1.07. the dollar hits its highest these events were not as commerzbank at the time of the predicable. deutsche bank mergers. an expansion for ubs level in about two years. follow ourcide to what do you do now that you have proposal, but we will see in the next months. treasury yields down by about atncine: when you look seen price up and yelled down? three basis points, to bring it internationally? tom: he wanted to move the bank to frankfurt. i suppose it is a exactly how much synergies we will he move it to frankfurt? sonali: that is the question. are expecting from this deal, what can you tell us? question of relative value in portfolio rather than outright are there too many banks in switzerland now? francine: francine is on -- tom: market direction valuations overall are getting rich, and you need a lot more bottoms up carlo: i think synergies could francine is on location in trade in credit or equities. switzerland to keep track of be to big blocks. one is in revenues. what ubs and credit suisse do. anderms of safety ration the synergies are only related drive forward our to the insurance business. yields, u.s. treasuries remain our favorite. they are the only sort of liquid important conversation with the timing, we can use our safe haven to diversify risk in chairman of ubs, axel weber. please stay with us, kevin strong ability to use the the portfolio, even though of cirilli from las vegas as well. that lowu have to know this is bloomberg. insurance business in only two ♪ improve revenues through the branches. yields give little protection, we made an acquisition of the especially at those valuations. strongest company in italy dynamism and being more specific about what you buy is going to devoted to health insurance, so be increasingly important. we can increase the revenues erik, how do you through this selling proposition with the ubi branches. relyingost side, we are model this? if bernie sanders is the democratic nominee, or elizabeth only on voluntary exit, so it warren, will we see a selloff in would also be friendly from a the market? what are the policies now that social point of view. will impact? we expect that 5000 people can live on a voluntary basis. let me step back and say i we are ready to hire 2500 forger people think you have to decide what the first half of this year will look like. we are in the camp thinking that things are rich and the chances are that the u.s. slows down and sustainability for the future. then we have the virus concern. there is also another very important point, the usage of then we start thinking about the next president. the negative goodwill embedded in this transaction. we will use negative goodwill in is, there are very few order to completely have integration charges in 2020 and outcomes from a business perspective and from a perspective that i believe in, also to reinforce the coverage which is multilateralism. of the combined entity in order see a candidate on to make a disposal of 4 billion the democratic side who looks thes and we will reduce like he or she can win, i think we are looking at trouble. -- i don't know the proposition of the combined entity. right term in english -- if it is a candidate that is unlikely a couple of final to beat trump, then you start to iink about trump 2, and then questions because i know you have a lot going on. the board sense that quote stan fischer who said we is behind this? have to start think about -- thinking about the united states a higher price, emerging markets. that is really troublesome in my do you have a margin where you opinion. francine: if president trump is can actually negotiate? i don't know what the a second term president, what do we think he thinks will work? board can decide. will we see trade wars? they are absolutely free to seesay: we will certainly decide. point is that there are zero multilateral trade deals, and reliance on his executive actions -- including tariffs and probability to decrease the sanctions, as you say. thank you so much, lindsay [ fast-paced drumming ] price in this offer. what does this newman,- lindsay changing landscape actually mean geraldine sundstrom, and erik nielsen p coming up in the next for the banking industry? hour, howard dean will join us, did democratic presidential candidate, former dnc chairman. for this, it is my home, dr. dean. [ fast-paced drumming ] this is bloomberg. ♪ my family, and i hope that the ubi people also become my family. atill complete my career this company, so i will stay here forever. for the other top players, it is clear that the dynamic also related with the possible m&a in the future, but i will stay here until the end of my career at intesa sanpaolo. francine: thank you very much, mr. carlo messina, joining us today for an exclusive conversation. we have a lot of news to get through. we also heard from the chief executive of daimler, taking responsibility for the units. i think reorganizing its tom: we welcome all of you management structure. daimler cars chief financial worldwide, francine in london, tom and new york. officer will be replaced by we have -- in new york. someone else on the board. the chief operating officer of we have a wonderful set of daimler. stories. 112.15, well past two we will have plenty more in the auto sector coming up in "bloomberg surveillance." coming up, changing of the guard. standard deviations and with us, ubs names its next chief ebrahim rahbari. executive. we wait on kevin cirilli and dr. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ weber. i want you to fold back in how bankers in general have to deal with the perpetual nature of negative interest rates. you guys have led on this. you have written many important pieces on this. are we out a point where ebrahim rahbari says enough of negative interest rates? ebrahim: i would call myself a skeptic about the effectiveness of negative rates. the long-term effects of negative rate policies are things we do not understand well and potentially stronger than the stimulus of long-term effects. i do not just mean the effects on the banking system, i mean on the pension system and long-term spending behavior. negative rates have probably run their course but getting out of them is easier said than done. francine: does this mean the ecb will try to limit the impact of negative rates by more tearing or are they itching to -- tiering or are they itching to normalize? ebrahim: if they were to cut further, certainly there would be more tiering. they would love to normalize interest rates but they are in a difficult bought because they would worry about the effect on the exchange rate, interest rate, and financial markets, and worried about signaling they are out of tools. for the time being, they are pretty much stuck when it comes to interest rates. tom: it is fascinating with all the turmoil in commercial banking. we need to shift back to las vegas on the way to the weekend caucus in nevada. let's listen to last evening. >> when you say they signed them and if they wish now to speak out and tell their side of the story about what it is they allege, that is now ok with you, you are releasing them on television tonight? [cheers and applause] company, the man or woman decided when they made an francine: ubs has named the ing agreement they wanted to keep it tom: bloomberg surveillance. silent. >> most americans do not see chief ralph hamers as its new let's do a data check right now. where they fit if they have got chief executive officer, forget about las vegas. succeeding one of europe's how about tokyo -- yen just to choose between a socialist renting a one point -- a 100 who thinks capitalism is the longest-serving bank chief 1225 minutes ago. root of all evil or a the dollar with new strength, a billionaire who thinks money executives. it is a surprising pick for the ought to be the root of all power. world's largest wealth manager. bloomberg's financial reporter huge february and march story. let's put forward someone who second screen quickly, with a has more on this. this was also after bloomberg little bit of the lives and works in a foreign-exchange complex. middle-class neighborhood in an 111 .95. industrial middle-class -- news a week ago saying that ubs industrial midwest city. was looking for a successor. european stocks are outsiderxpecting an let's put forth a democrat. tom: let me do a disclaimer, mr. and someone like that that comes down. from img? >> first of all, it probably investors are trying to figure out what the virus impact on bloomberg is the founder of their economies and industry is. bloomberg lp and it looks like does not come as a surprise in there has been a batch of lackluster corporate earnings, he got a double minor. that respect. this thing comes a little bit of it was pretty ugly. and they need to see the impact in the coming weeks of the a deja vu for me. coronavirus beyond china. what is a surprise is a pick. the tone from "the new york dollar up. in the next hour, we will be post," mr. bloomberg has a ralph hamers himself. little bit to do with television speaking with the ubs chairman. ing has a very different he actually lead and radio. business model. 75% or so they generate through we go to kevin cirilli on las ubs. executive, ralph we wouldvelike dues -- retail development. it is very old-school banking. like to say he will survive on ubs is a different business hamers, is the chief executive saturday i want to press forward of the bank. this is bloomberg. model, investment banking, ♪ to charleston. wealth management, so that is very different. it comes as a little bit of a what will charleston look like? surprise in the sense that he is an outsider. kevin: look, last night, senator he is an outsider from switzerland. he never let a wealth manager. bernie sanders, the dynamics of the names that were floated the race did not change. around in recent weeks and that is my big take away. months were very different than what we are seeing now. hasairman of the bank still sanders still remains the frontrunner and is expected to delivered. win and win significantly in francine: it would actually mean nevada on saturday in the that the strategy could change. caucus. point number two is that this is ubs, like a lot of its rivals, not a two-person race. has gone through immense if you talked to any of the pressure in the last 18-24 months. does disappointment give us -- surrogates of the campaigns, this appointment give us a sense elizabeth warren's campaign, of where they want to take the bank? bernie sanders' campaign, none >> i don't think they have a lot of strategic optionality. of them feel they have any impetus for any candidate should get out of this race between now the core business model is and super tuesday. after thisportant wealth management. hamers, one thing that sergio ermotti definitely missed was historic moment for the nation, digitization. how important does super tuesday he struggled with implementing texas and super tuesday california become? kevin: massive, hugely or integrating the wealth management platform and he never launched any new banking products. important. when i talked to one of the hot -- top surrogates of the sanders ubs launched a mobile advisor campaign i asked her, even if which they canceled months later. sanders does not get the sergio ermotti really missed specific number of delegates that opportunity. ralph hamers has a reputation needed by technically following the rules be able to claim that for being mr. digital. mosts probably one of the he has the nomination, but has the majority of delegates, is that enough for your campaign to undisputedly inp, so they make the case that he is the nominee? she did not want to say yes or have been working on a lot of insinuationend -- digital products. that is the expectation for hamers, bring ubs to the next is that that is precisely what will happen. level in digitization. francine: the head of credit you are hearing that from other suisse and the head of ubs have analysts, other campaigns that both been replaced in the space of three weeks and investors if bernie sanders wins nevada, were not really expecting it that much. wins the california primary, has how will it change the swiss a strong showing in texas, it banking landscape as a whole? >> i think it is a good will be increasingly difficult to stop him. question. the republican obviously, the cases are very different. there was a lot of drama at credit suisse, it was a strategist for bloomberg opinion corporate governance issue. was good. at ubs, it was probably a more orderly process. they made clear mr. trump won last night. both banks are under pressure. he is doing much better in the polling. they both have litigation is the president breaking out issues. politically? last: when i was speaking ubs has a big case in france and the u.s., which could put the capital return policy under pressure. night with top surrogates to the president's reelection efforts, so, i think it is good for a change in the sense that you they are completely satisfied need ceo's to create new business models, somebody with with how the president has been fresh ideas. i think that is also behind both faring in a contrast against the democrats, especially during of those replacements. i don't think it will change the last night's debate. the candidates were more swiss financial center, which is focused on wealth and asset enthusiastic about their chances last night versus any other management. it will bring in new ideas and debate this cycle where i have checked in with them. hopefully a little less drama the tom perez introduced and terms of corporate governance. these are two key considerations. debate last night, the head of francine: thank you so much, the democratic party. bloomberg financial reporter. will we count votes at the coming up, european stock caucus correctly, or is there movers. air france down more than 6% on another iowa? kevin: perez and also harry worries about the coronavirus. reid, there is a lot of pressure that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. -- i don't know how ♪ >> i would like to talk about who we are running against, a to say it, it is still 3:00 in the morning. billionaire who calls women set parlors ateve the calls womenhort -- the paris hotel are open for fat broad and space lesbians. you, kevin cirilli from las vegas. ubs, are coming up on i am not talking about president conversation with their trump, i am talking about chairman, axel weber. the media inke to michael bloomberg. he has a history of hiding his returns,-- tax switzerland, extraordinary headlines out of that we will do harassing women, and policies that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ like redlining and stop and frisk. tom: the senator of massachusetts going after the former mayor of new york and you wonder if they will do this on tuesday. mr. bloomberg of course is the majority owner of bloomberg lp. i have close rumors he survived the debate last night. we will see. news now, our first word in new york city. viviana: we begin with the coronavirus, china changing the way it counts the number of cases, raising questions over the reliability of data. today's province at the epicenter just reporting 349 new cases but yesterday, almost 1700. president donald trump's trade stance did hurt growth. the white house saying uncertainty dampened business investment, contrasting with the president's previous assertions that tariffs have not hurt the economy. a warning from the imf that the debt load is not sustainable, sayingvely -- the imf private holders would have to make a "meaningful contribution." global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine: the fallout from the coronavirus has prompted some chief executives to take action. here are chief executives of mirsky and -- -- mirsky -- mersck -- >> we have canceled shipments from china. we normally have a number of cancellations after the chinese new year because it takes time for factories to ramp up again, but this year china has been closed for twice as long. >> china has dropped somewhat. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg impacted isy most "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york. probably iron ore. a surprise pick will take over we are sending out products and moving product ready well, so we at the world's largest wealth do not see -- pretty well, so we manager. ralph hammers will become the chief executive of ubs. do not see a big impact. toexpect china's growth let's get straight to the ubs chairman, axel weber. recover fairly quickly and it should be business as usual. he has just been speaking to a francine: we are back with erik number of analysts and press. thank you for giving us a little nielsen and geraldine sundstrom. bit of your time. youour pick, and what do we don't know how long the virus will continue, how far it will think are his key strengths? experienced at a spread, and the number of fatalities. you are an asset manager. francine: let's bring you this do you assume the worst and hope systemic global bank like ubs. morning stockholders with dani for the best? geraldine: there are several he has been leading one of those burger. dani: one of the biggest movers banks for seven years ways to look at it. to the downside had their successfully in a difficult and if there are companies that you like, fundamentals are not challenging market. fourth-quarter quarter earnings he knows how to interact with and named a new ceo, but it is all being overshadowed by a new likely to change dramatically regulators globally and knows rights issue. because of this virus. the company issuing about $864 everything gets delayed. banking strategy, knows digital, the hope is this virus has million of shares. peaked and we will not see a so he brings a lot to the table. the dilution hitting the share second wave globally or even in we are happy to have him with price hard. air france warning about the us. china. the ceo has been with us for impact of the coronavirus, saying it will take about a $216 people are slowly but surely nine years, so we are happy restarting to go to work. million hit because of canceled sergio has led the flights over the virus. the other thing is the fact that giving stimulus transformation and we worked telefonica, another or earnings together during the period with story. the struggle telefonica is a good understand. -- understanding. having in implementing their new via tax cuts another things, so problems -- their new plan. they are trying to soften the tois time for a new chapter francine: thank you so much. blow. be written by ralph hammers. dani burger there. the economy was starting to show francine: did ubs need better data before the virus. regulatory approval given ing's what happens in vegas does not stay in vegas as the democratic industries, the ones debate hots up. money laundering issues? axel: absolutely. that are suffering the most were details. this is bloomberg. ♪ sometimes your small screen is your big screen. certain other sectors that are more in the tech sectors that in switzerland, before a ceo can they reach out to can work around those problems and issues a little bit better. it does not change factors and the regulators in the home constituencies of these banks. rules of power. francine: this could not have we have done our own due diligence, including legal come at a worse time for the world economy. counsel in switzerland and the it was the lunar new year and netherlands and have taken into right after the trade war. account publicly available we think the u.s. is more information. we build our decision on summary assurances that this was a .ulnerable chapter that ing put behind the ceo has led the markets take a good degree of transformation. confidence in what you say about stimulus. let me remind you that one of it is a surprise, stimulus does ubstort -- first tasks at not work. if people do not want to fly for myself was to set with the because of fear or do not go to regulators. the movie theater, you can pump you just have to close some of any amount into stimulus and these chapters you find at the people will not go so you have a bank, and there was no supply effect. personable culpability in any of culpability inal you can provide liquidity so companies do not go bankrupt, but you cannot -- any of these investigations. francine: tom? tom: let's be honest. based on public information available and based on dr. nielsen is one of the great information we would see as regulators. francine: what do you want his optimists of bloomberg "surveillance," and i have never priorities to be? seen him this negative. is --e hasn't done before all of the news flow, axel weber with us in the next hour, here he has limited experience in wealth management and investment is yesterday's move. banks. 112, quite through where will he take the bank in the next four to five years? axel: we hired the new ceo and something on a short-term basis. very simply here, currency speak the transition will be orderly. we will work out over the entire , what are they saying? erik: i think they are telling year. sergio will be in charge of the you that it is a flight to bank until november and ralph safety. has joined us. the old stories about in september, there will be an interest-rate differences orderly handover. he will be the next ceo. obviously used to work but do not work anymore, although you he has to lead the bank and could argue that within the decide strategy. usual safe havens, the u.s. and more than half of the executive board has been turned over under yen, you are seeing a preference sergio's leadership. for the higher-yielding u.s. and with the xfinity stream app, i would say two things, number which is free with your service, one, safe haven driven by executives in you can take a spin through on demand shows, or stream live tv. economic surprises. wealth management will continue download your dvr'd shows and movies on the fly. in terms of actual data releases to lead that business. we have outstanding leaders in even record from right where you are. compared to expectations, europe has done poorly compared to the the investment bank, a very whether you're travelling around the country or around the house, talented person who leads our u.s. so you see euro-dollar go asset management. keep what you watch with you. down. the virus, more to safe havens. all of the divisions will be run download the xfinity stream app gold and chart is log , including our operations, as and watch all the shows you love. fantastically. ralph will supplement the team i am only doing it because geraldine has demanded it. and lead the team in the future. it shows the safe haven nature we are well done with the team we have and i expect the team to as well. how will this change policies or work together and take ubs to the next level. that is clearly the mission. constraints for central bankers? we have axel weber, maybe we tom: all of this is wonderful, will talk some bundesbank, but but you mentioned the dreaded t what are the constraints central word, technology. bankers have given the supply was supple with the shock in a safe haven market? erik: they do not have much, to be honest. deployment of capital to technology. tooink the markets are is your bank under pressure to keep up with the american banks casual about policy stimulus if on the deployment of capital to you have a clear supply shop. technology? this is a supply shop. there is not much if anything i think of j.p. morgan and what they have done with technology. you can do about liquidity. the chinese provide liquidity are you under pressure to keep that investment going and to do and credit lines. it better under his tenure? that is good because companies axel: no, we are absolutely not hit by the supply shock will not go under, but in terms of francine: ubs names ing chief similar demand, you cannot do under pressure, but investments executive ralph hamers as the successor to sergio ermotti to it. our first choice for every run the swiss bank. if people do not want to go to we will talk to ubs chairman the movie theater because they european bank to digitalize it, axel weber shortly. virus effects -- south korea are scared, you can give them confirmed its first fatality to take banking to the next from coronavirus as two people from a quarantined cruise ship any amount of money and they level. in japan have also died. will not go. francine: thank you both. i have had many discussions with and what happens in vegas? leaders at the global level. banking is changing democrats spar ahead of dramatically. saturday's caucus in nevada. the first signs where you see michael bloomberg comes under in all weather conversation, fire from all sides in the debate. erik nielsen and geraldine technology takeover is retail banking, but we are the largest sundstrom stay with us. and only global wealth good morning, good afternoon, the european bank in focus, we management. wealth management is becoming a , everyone.g well will bring you a conversation and its offer. it will notess so nothing like a pound check when we have some data. hammerss to ing's russ be seen as something you are this is january retail sales. forced to do. if you exclude fuel, rising .o succeed the current ceo if you do not do it with full 1.6%. conviction, you have failed. inwere expecting a 0.8% gain this is bloomberg. we need somebody that can lead ♪ inflation yesterday. that transition. u.k. was better than expected. tom: we have had wonderful dinners indavos talking about all eyes are on march 11, where we are expecting the budget, from the chancellor. here is viviana hurtado first economics, less than graceful in zurich. word news. viviana: south korea is your competitors have been a bit distracted. reporting its first fatality to is this an opportunistic time for ubs with their heritage to go out and acquire and get the coronavirus. two people from the quarantined cruise ship died. fuller scale in wealth the total death toll passes 2100 management? axel: we are 100% focused, laser people. worldwide, more than 75,000 are focused. i can only look at what we do. now infected. 11 people have been killed after a shooting in germany, the i will not comment on cowere focused attack happening near frankfurt. on ceo transition and taking the the attack may be right wing bank to the next level. extremism. this is our key focus and officers say the suspect was found dead at his home alongside one other person. everyone, including our new ceo, now to airlines, qantas airways will play a key part in the transition. slashing flights in asia. this is what i as a former that is in response to falling regulator have really wanted to demand because of the do. francine: when you talk about coronavirus. capacity reductions of 15% will ubs at the next level, will that be in place for some countries until at least the end of may. include acquisitions? the size of the pullback should that include critical mass getting bigger, buying reflecting the scale of the challenge for airlines. other banks? axel: first and foremost, we have a lot of new balances issued a number of really strong built up, so we can manage the commitments to a more ambitious situation for at least six way of achieving targets, months. so we don't see the need to make basically for improving our redundancies. we are trying to protect as many footprint and growing into jobs as we can. markets that are retroactive. viviana: now to the e.u. it is about implementing under member states are at loggerheads the leadership of sergio the over negotiating position for a ambitious targets we have post exit trade talk as french announced. in a world that is consolidating president emmanuel macron pushes , ubs is a prime player will have to react to market for more demanding conditions to be imposed on britain. developments. we are focused on growing market the e.u. 27 hopes to finalize the mandate yesterday, what they were unable to agree on the share. final language. this includes asia, europe, and it calls upon britain to the united states, and we want stick to e.u. rules. to take market share in our core global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by business, wealth management, bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in asset management. more than 120 countries, i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. it is all about gaining share of francine? francine: thank you so much per wallet and that is what we are focused on. let's focus on the race for the white house. we never walk away from the latest in the debate, uncle opportunities if and when they come up, but this is not on the bloomberg came under sustained attack. horizon at this moment. i see much stronger pressure in that bernie set there's the u.s. for banks to move to the next level and in -- bernie might have otherwise particular, some of the midsize players are losing out heavily taken. to the large banks. says never elizabeth warren ♪ francine: as ever, tom and they will have to come back, and questioned his candidacy in the that segment of market is francine from london and new probably happening faster than -- senator elizabeth warren york. questioned his candidacy. on the european side where who went to talk about since his appointment in 2013, national borders and the carla mussina has overseen as european banking union that is crossbuilt is wanting are running against. a billionaire who refers to fat steadily rising price. border consolidation. an offer for the number four francine: how long did the s.oad lender took markets by surprise. search for the new chief executive take? i'm not talking about donald carlo mussina spoke with us did you only have external trump, i'm talking about michael bloomberg. earlier. >> this is like the move and the he has a history of hiding his candidates? exceptional had tax returns, harassing women, and supporting racist policies timing of the move because it is like redlining and stop and internal and external clear that the supervisor wants candidates. frisk. francine: we should mention as a the search commenced over about 15 months. the european banking sector to be consolidated and we were the disclaimer, michael bloomberg is first move. every member of the executive board at ubs was part of this also the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the a transaction that can create value for both. evaluation, and it may sound like a non-process but if you go parent company of bloomberg news. is ato discuss the debate there points on the transaction creative. is through a solid process, that is what you need to do. professor of international relations at the london school the board wanted to make sure that everyone feels this process of economics. thank you, professor, for coming both, soeate value for on. it was an entertaining debate is one where everyone had the chance. that lasted two hours. he won, and who did badly? it is positive from our side. bloom cameht, the francine: when you talk about we ended up going with someone from outside. typo, but it was a regulators, can you tell us if off the bloomberg rose. all eyes were on mike bloomberg, the ecb is 100% behind you? saw the bloomberg headline saying you might stay around and i think he was just happy to until 2030. get out of vegas alive. if you were counting this on carlo: it is clear that it is that sounds like an interesting idea for ubs. impossible for a bank like us out 1, 2,you do next, points, i would say elizabeth debate,ind of won the that is one of the strongest banks in europe to make a three years? what will you do next? but her supporters must be transaction without any positive axel: i am not commenting on wondering where all that fire and passion was before the iowa and new hampshire debate, and that, but i will take you as an e example as someone who has been supervisor. around a long time, always there is a place for that when you have -- freedom is having in my expectation, this transaction is completely in appreciate what you are doing, nothing left to lose, and i think she just was at ease in a and it is seriously, i think ths line with the expectations of way that she had not been in the the supervisor. previous debates. in the end, what we need in so important happened with your joe biden must be thanking his lucky stars that mike bloomberg european to create was around, because bloomberg took the incoming and biden did champions that can compete with the players based in the usa and not. francine: what does it mean for is the firstat the polls? how cool he does it translate to the polls? if you win a debate, does it move in europe that can create the strongest champion. change the next time you debate? are you just as good as your in my expectation, other last debate? transactions can follow in the next month. peter: it will probably affect francine: that was our exclusive the poll numbers somewhat. i don't think it will have much interview. bearing on what happens in let's get back to some of the nevada on saturday, especially banking sector and we had changes at the top of ubs. since a lot of the early voting has already occurred in nevada. erik nielsen and geraldine sundstrom are still with us. bernie sanders is likely to come when you look at negative rates, out of nevada as the frontrunner to cement his position, but it is testing the banking models so without talking about the banking sector, is there a distrustedisliked, realization amongst the ecb they are hurting the transmission mechanism? geraldine: one thing that is by the majority of democrats, so i think what we are going to see clear with the new leadership coming out of nevada is, you and christine lagarde is one of know, the rest of the democrats the key stakeholders in the mount afor ways to dialogue or the population at large, politicians, pension funds, and increasingly negative challenge, to pick up delegates in south carolina, and on super interest rates are being criticized. it is hard for the ecb to do tuesday, to stop the bernie what the riksbank did in sweden. momentum. it was a very telling moment maybe the silver lining is the last night in the debate toward the end, where all of the steady weakening of the euro candidates were asked that if which could open sometime in the somebody arrives in milwaukee in future an opening. this is the key for the european banking sector to do better. july rally but not the we saw better earnings and the majority, not having the magic first quarter of last year. i would call it green shoots. 1991 delegates to secure the but to get the real boost and rewriting of the sector, we need zero interest rates and that nomination, if they would support the candidate, the would have a huge catalyst. answer was no. francine: when will that happen? only sanders said yes. francine: is it still up in the erik: we have to see better air? growth. model right now. i don't think you can imagine the ecb changing the narrative wereaying interest rates ddle right now,u and it still is. something extraordinary and now they all have a chance but they things are normalized. don't all have an equal chance. the narrative is that the zero sanders -- sanders bound is lower and it was natural, maybe natural for a really got a leg up and is in a while but not long. we have to get better data in position perhaps to establish our portfolio. april reality, but it is not tom: i want to bring up a chart majorityhat it is a with our securities analyst, going forward. that is the rub and it increases erik nielsen. i want you to talk about another the risk and probability of a contested democratic convention. italian bank but i will be put we have not had one in the convention. in the timeout chair if i do. this wonderful bank, intesa, there 87,000 employees versus their giant and we have not had one since 1952. debt, there, and their cost of the next the probability will have gone up. francine: we have a viewer , and theirtheir bank question. thank you to this viewer, a loyal viewer, so keep the cost of capital is next to nothing. questions coming. he says, "is there any reason why elizabeth warren actually is this a perfect example of the did not go after bernie sanders distortions of a negative interest rate continent and the more?" constraints it gives to commercial banking in each and peter: the problem for warren is that she needs sanders every nation? erik: yes, in many ways. supporters. if she has any chance -- she has --hink the banking system been trying to carve out a position in between klobuchar let's start by pointing out that and biden and buttigieg in "the most european banks trade at a fraction of book. if you were looking at it strictly, you should buy back center-right," and bernie your shares and should not sanders on the progressive left, merge. what that means in particular, there is not much european and thee strength banking that can create an interim return on your capital, enthusiasm of sanders 16%, 17%, 18%, whatever you will supporters, she doesn't really want to attack him head on, although i will note she did go get buying back shares half book. if negative rates were to help after him over medicare for all last night. it was the first time that she the real economy, it is good for -- i would not exactly say took banks, so it is difficult to the gloves off the way she did with bloomberg, but she mixed it pick one out of the many obstacles banks face, negative up a little bit. you so much,nk rates, the flat curve, professor peter trubowitz. overgrowth, an enormous amount of regulatory cost in terms of much more on our top story coming up. complying. we will speak more with ubs we need more capital and all the chair axel weber. rest of it. it is a whole lot of things and we will ask him about strategies many banks have not done it good for ubs going forward. that is shortly after 11:30 a.m. enough in terms of internal restructuring. u.k. time. i would like to see the package rather than one thing like this is bloomberg. ♪ negative rates. tom: the book value, jp morgan trades at double the book value of some say the best bank in which trades at double the value of deutsche bank. how do we get out of negative rates? intesa is doing this transaction. the ecb seems to be constrained by every interview. how do we escape negative rates? i hope to see it eventually, that i think a sustained weaker euro could bring more inflation and recovery globally. the elephant in the room is the fact that the european economy is facing secular disruption. a lot of the growth in europe comes from automobiles or chemicals which are not creating jobs or growth. this is like a long workout that europe needs to go through, and the political will or stability or fiscal expenditure to help this transition is not there. what we would hope to see at the end of the day is that when the germans are ready to fiscal spend. it seems it needs to get worse before they will take action on that. francine: how much worse? let's not talk about numbers, but does president trump need to start a war with carmakers in germany to do fiscal spending? iik: that would help, that don't like that narrative. the germans should spend more money. they should increase education spending and investment. they should not do it for europe but for themselves. germany is far behind europe. of the surplus is absurd from a german point of view, period. yes, there is an external force like donald trump, that energizes minds a bit but it is francine: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance." i'm not the right way of thinking of it. francine lacqua in london. germany can figure it out let's get straight to the themselves and if trump were to bloomberg business flash in new , that wouldasonable york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: 20 will be marred by considerable uncertainties due be more -- that are for europe to the coronavirus. the largest container shipping than the negative part. company says it expects a weak tom: geraldine sundstrom, thank start to the year, profits at you so much for being with us about $5.5 billion this year, today. less than the nearly $6 billion interesting to see how every bank changes the guard on every expected by analysts. baer, combating's continent and world, and there is an order at the union bank of switzerland, ubs extraordinary is -- they include alleged cases in how they laid us out. the former head of the of corruption linked to bundesbank, axel weber venezuela's state oil company and fisa. identified as one of the key economist in europe and he is julius baer saying it cooperated managing the message as they extensively with the regulator. speak about a change at ubs. deficiencies have been addressed. that is perhaps mr. hammers on china has agreed to take over the right, the new ceo of ing. hna and sell assets, the most dramatic step yet to contain the what do you see? francine: the choice of ralph deepening economic damage due to coronavirus. bloomberg learns the move came hammers has a lot of people asking why him? after the company has not met say hers and insiders its financial allegations. an official announcement could come as soon as today. we end with airbus. slash almost 7% of has very limited experience in wealth management, which is ubs's core business so people are trying to figure out if there could be a change in strategy, and that will be our main question to axel weber when we speak to him in under an hour. its workforce, a limiting 2300 this is blue. jobs by the end of 2021. -- this is blue. this base unit has about 35,000 staff. -- bloomberg. ♪ the number of new cases in china drops. international companies are rushing to -- here with the details is dani burger. dani: it seems like we get a new company each day talking about the coronavirus. let's quantify this, not just look at individual companies, but the whole. speaking about companies that mentioned the virus in their earnings call, and this number represents about $9 trillion of market cap, companies saying things about the virus on the call. this yellow bar by far the majority. 56% said they are monitoring, but it is too early to tell about the exact impact. an additional 26% say there will be an impact, but the impact will be limited. a smaller 5%, the top of these bars, saying it is going to be a severe impact. the trend is clear. as we get more details of what the fallout is, the boardroom is saying we are concerned, growing more chunky at the top, but it should be said that still most companies are saying it is too soon to tell. bloomberg economics pointing out that that might be true, but there is still a lot of potential for the outcome to be bad, francine. francine: dani burger with some of the second round effects of the coronavirus. what does this mean for the oil market and global trade? joining us is the deputy chairman of rothschild group. thank you for joining us. assuming the virus started the widespread isolation and quarantines and countries, we saw a 20% drop in demand from china. how likely is it that we continue along those lines? of china ismption roughly 14 million barrels a day. we consider that in total in these few months, for the first quarter, we have been losing roughly one million barrels a day. to the consumption of oil in the world, it was supposed to growd. i think this growth will not on the and the -- it is same level as 2019. prices are going down. now we are roughly in the area of $50, $55 a barrel. and i expect this price to remain what it is. comeine: does oil demand back or is it going to be slow? this is complicated because we have not really seen anything like it. we compared it to sars in 2003. but then it was a different economy. paolo: we don't know for how long the chinese economy will be viviana: you are watching essentially blocked as it has bloomberg "surveillance." we been in the last few weeks for the coronavirus. begin with victoria's secret, about to go privatel. everything will start to move -- private. again, then this is the kind of they are about to be sold to focus we can make. sycamore partners, valuing francine: you were talking about the oil price. it is unclear at the moment of victoria's secret $1.1 billion. saudi arabia and russia continue butands would keep a stake because they have a different breakeven oil price. that two view is the chairman would step down. lloyds banking group is out with a bullish forecast. years, saudi arabia and russia they say this year the bank will target returns of 12% to 13%, made a phenomenal pact between the two countries. every time demand drops, they well above last year's performance. cut down production by -- the in 2019, they had to take a last time was half a million charge for compensating barrels a day, at the beginning customers wrongly sold -- of january, so they control dropd to stop any possible that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: brexit is deepening , to the $30 we have seen in 2016. the rift between richer and poor francine: when you look at e.u. states. supply chains across the world, do you see this changing? they are meeting for an extraordinary summit today, so some of them already move let's get straight to maria because of the trade war between the u.s. and china, but what is tadeo in brussels. a long-lasting effect on the virus? a lot of insiders are expecting paolo: the long-lasting effect this to possibly continue, these on the virus would be that new countries step in as producers, negotiations to drag on through the weekend and even then, failure remains the most likely russia, inrabia and outcome. why? maria: that is exactly right. front of demand, which is not this is an interesting summit growing, should continue to cut down production. for a number of reasons. -- they doly we it is one trillion euros, but this is the first e.u. 27 whatever they can so oil prices do not go below $50 a barrel. meeting without the u.k. francine: maybe they get a little bit of support because this is probably the final the oil price is lower, but we budget from angela merkel for are hearing, especially from she leaves german politics but chief executives of smaller companies, saying i cannot make you see the division between the perfume bottles because i don't north and west, south and east, have the little bit that sprays that comes from china. and it is difficult to get my impression is that everyone to compromise. the speculation is we will not get any kind of deal. this is solving every day a piece of this issue. politicians need to be seen as fighting hard for their the economy is not doing very well. taxpayers not to pay more. the u.s. economy continues to be quite strong, but the effect of they said if anything they the coronavirus is not being should pay less. tom: is there a surplus? evaluated yet in total. it will depend on when it will some of these nations are be solved, the issue. francine: thank you so much. running near or higher surplus. continues with us. why is there a budget debate? maria: there is, and some economic data tomorrow. countries have a big surplus. after a shocking end to the i am thinking about germany. year, what will the pmi tell us connected to brexit, the fact about growth? that is next, and this is that you have lost a net payer, bloomberg. ♪ officials see a gap of 60 billion euros to 70 billion euros over the u.k. leaving the european union. that puts the question, do we fill the gap by cutting spending or putting more spending on the table? that is where the leaders do not agree. much,aria, thank you so maria tadeo with a brief on the non-las vegas like chaos in europe. we will do much more on what we saw in american politics through all of "surveillance" today. in the next hour, we will get an update on all going on in foreign-exchange, the yen out to new weakness. on dollar-yen, that is extraordinary. an important conversation with dr. weber of ubs at the half-hour mark. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance everyone uses their phone differently. ." a big day for economic data that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, tomorrow after a shocking end to the year. we will get a first look at how february is shaping up. mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time. a modest drop in pmi to 51, all with millions of secure wifi hotspots showing the economy in expansion and the best lte everywhere else. but only just. still with us, paolo scaroni. it's a different kind of wireless network, designed to save you money. i was going to ask you -- we switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. talked about the world economy, and all these big unknowns, and save even more when you say "bring my own phone" including what is happening with into your voice remote. the virus. are you worried about the that's simple, easy, awesome. click, call or visit a store today. european economy? president is still threatening tariffs, especially on german carmakers. the political situation is pretty fluid and we are waiting for structural reforms. what is worrying me is germany. the german economy is not doing well at all. politically, germany is facing a difficult time, which will be solved probably not before one year or two. so the engine of the european economy, in germany, which is weak on one side, suffering with the coronavirus on the others, with political uncertainty in front of it. this is my major worry. italy is usually in the mess, ♪ but this is no news. the good news is coming from france, because the french economy is performing much tom: this morning, it was not better than the rest of the european, the big countries of the european union. lincoln douglas, it was not francine: you asked about kennedy nexen, it was not like brexit. how does brexit pan out? i know it makes a big difference the previous eight debates. to the italian economy, it could make a big difference to who won the vegas shout fest? germany. will it be 11 months of the voters of nevada will uncertainty? decide. paolo: it is going to be 11 fewerndidates or perhaps months of uncertainty because the agreement between the u.k. do it again tuesday in charleston. and the european union has not been drawn. ubs, it is not credit suisse. it will take some time. my view at the end of the day is ubs changes ceos like a swiss that we will go back to a kind watch. of market for goods but not for at the bottom of the hour, axel weber. the path from epidemic to services, and this will be a complex moment for the european economy. francine: complex to a point pandemic, cruiseship passengers die. where we could see a possible "surveillance"rg recession, or is it just a lack of investment because people do from our world headquarters in new york and london. not want to spend? paolo: the lack of investment how did the debates play last night in london? probably yes. was it a side note or was it certainly there will be a moment visible in the british press? of adjustment. francine: it is visible, really the financial front page news of the political service economy, which the u.k. are so strong, allowed to newspapers, and a lot going on with the banks. on global wall street or a continue to work for the banking employee, there was a european union. that is a question mark for me change at credit suisse that was and for everybody? francine: what do chief not expected and now there is a change i ubs that was not executives ask the most of you? expected -- at ubs that was not we had an exclusive interview expected in this timeframe. talking about consolidation. surprise.nvestors by seeall, are we going to this is a changing banking more consolidation in the landscape that could have an impact. ceo on had the intesa banking sector and elsewhere? paolo: in italy for sure, there will be were consolidation. earlier and now you see axel in italy there are too many banks, and the only way in which weber doing what he does best, you can be effective, make cost order and care. move is as to -- the this is the discussion at ubs, first of a series of moves that and we will speak with mr. weber we will be seeing in the next few months. touch otheroded at the bottom of the hour. before we bring in dr. dean of industries, or could you see his democratic party, we have to cross-border banking consolidation? check in on what happened in las -- would it touch other industries, or could you see vegas that did not stay in las cross-border backing vegas. >> i can't think of a ways that consolidation? paolo: we should remember that could make it easier for donald the banking sector is under the authority of the bank of italy, trump to get elected than so i'm not sure the bank of listening to this conversation. italy will allow consolidation it is ridiculous. across borders on top of what we are not going to throw out capitalism. has already happened in italy already. there are a few banks which are we tried that, other countries tried that. foreign-owned, particu increase it is called communism. it didn't work. >> i believe in capitalism, but of these international positions i believe the goal of someone, a president is a check on that. of italian banks. getting: are risk ifrats take a huge breaking news. the chief financial officer does not seek to refresh his five we substitute one arrogant billionaire over another. year contract. this is according to private >> if they have to choose resources, because of private will name a vw between a capitalist and a billionaire, let's put forward successor in the coming months. somebody who actually lives and works in a middle-class there is also a reshuffle at the neighborhood. >> if there are a few people who board of daimler, and there is a lot going on in the banking sector. make ugly remarks, who attack trade union leaders, i disowned leaving ubsecutive those people. last week. they are not part of our is there a risk for a sector? movement. >> i am running because so many i don't know if you have people people have been left behind. tom: a wonderful snapshot into that can be very able, but it is something that we should keep an what we saw. eye out on, in terms of valuations and markets? lester holt and the team at nbc did a wonderful job on that. paolo: changes have already happened. nothing new about it. republican, democrat, or i think that the normal tenure executives is around four independent, last night's debate was absolutely original. years, so i would not be it started with a doctor out of surprised if there are many vermont, howard dean, a former changes. and if company's have effective succession planning, i don't see democratic presidential candidate and former dnc many problems of changing at the chairman. top. francine: thank you so much for joining us. paolo scaroni, executive at i thought about the third shout rothschild group. fest. miss our don't what was it like for you to observe that? dean: i thought it was the best exclusive interview with axel weber, the bank's chair come on debate to be seen and all have been pretty good. the new ubs chief executive. all these six people could very we are talking with a lot of well get the nomination and go banking executives today to on to be president. understand their business that is the first time we have had that. models, their concerns, and the revenue streams rate i am very there are no more strays on there to prove a point. excited to speak with the ubs chair about changes at the top. the second thing is the voters there is quite a lot going on will decide this. this will have an impact. the last one catapulted amy with markets trying to impact or assess the impact of the coronavirus p european stocks falling. klobuchar into the serious mix. if you look at the reports on i thought all the candidates earnings, a lot of them are were articulate about explaining saying they will be affected by the virus. where they were on the political we will get through those as spectrum. well. this is bloomberg. there is a real difference ♪ between these candidates. i thought it was great. msnbc and nbc get a lot of credit, and the dnc gets a lot of credit. tom: give us a window into what hi! we're glad you came in, what's on your mind? happens after the debate. everyone was shocked after how they went after each other, and yet at the end of the debate they speak nice, shake hands, and such. as a candidate, what is it like to step from the heat of the battle back to the niceties and asce of knowing each other friends and business acquaintances? dean: i can assure you, there are no friends up there. american people do not like spiteful miss so there is a nice show afterwards, but this is just armed combat. theare getting ready for next one to look at your weaknesses in fix them up and go after the strong guys. this is the competition for the most important office in the world, the most powerful office in the world, and it is no holds barred. francine: is this just not a massive win for donald trump? armed conflict in the democratic party, president trump has his party behind him united. dean: i don't think it is a win for president trump. themnk every single one of is competent, which is a far cry from donald trump. is,cine: but my question the democrats are taking and ripping each other apart. say --iewer, why would i why wouldn't i say why would i vote for one of these -- for the president? dean: they are so polarized that nobody watched the debate is can you help keep these guys protected online? easy, connect to the xfi gateway. thinking about voting for trump. what about internet speeds that keep up with my gaming? i didn't think anybody was badly let's hook you up with the fastest internet from xfinity. damaged last night. i thought bloomberg was probably what about wireless data options for the family? surprised at the vociferous nest of course, you can customize and save. of the attacks. he will recover from that. can you save me from this conversation? he is inexperienced at this that we can't do, but come in and see what we can do. level of debating and others we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. have been on the stage before. we will see what the voters say. ask. shop. discover. at your local xfinity store today. every spin dr. is saying how their candidate did great or somebody else did lousy, but this will affect the voters just as the new hampshire debates did , and we will see what happens on saturday. tom: explain the importance now after this historic debate, explain the importance of super tuesday. i want you to focus on how these six candidates leveraged themselves to texas and california. that jump is extraordinary, isn't it? dean: it is extraordinary, and this is the next big separation point. the next debate, some may fallout. some have not done as well as they should have. francine: poached. if they don't recover, that will ubs names ing chief executive ralph hamers as the successor to sergio ermotti to run the swiss be a problem. these two states look like the bank. we will talk to ubs chairman democratic party, unlike new hampshire and iowa, these states .hortly are a real test. all of this sets the stage for virus effects -- south korea super tuesday. confirmed its first fatality from coronavirus as two people i do not think all six of these from a quarantined cruise ship in japan have also died. and what happens in vegas? candidates will be viable in democrats spar ahead of march, but we do not know which saturday's caucus in nevada. michael bloomberg comes under ones will drop and which ones will not. fire from all sides in the debate. the voters of nevada and south well, good morning, good carolina will make that decision. afternoon, good evening. tom: last night, thinking of i'm francine lacqua in london. secretary clinton, where would tom keene is in new york. if you look at the markets, they she fit into the perspective, are focusing on the impact of some would say she would be the the coronavirus, that it is most conservative one. maybe, maybe not. having on corporate earnings. we are trying sector by sector frame your party right now to see who will be impacted the most. versus the collective memory the tom: we saw yen come through to world has pre-obama and pre-bill 111 yesterday. dynamic, theg clinton. what kind of democratic party mix is this rather than what we recession in japan. the fire in las vegas, extraordinary. knew in our childhood? thrilled that howard dean will join us in the 6:00 hour. dean: this is a fascinating mix. , the democratss francine: a change of topic, ubs. are moving to the left. hambank has named roth 35 of 40 candidates that beat republicans are more centrist. they are veterans. its ceo. they did not come from new york. they came from orange county, it is surprising pick. california. tom: how can bernie sanders win? let's get to a senior banks analyst for bloomberg intelligence who joins us now. concernslook at the how can he take the trophy? dean: because of his authenticity. that investors had on the ubs people value authenticity greatly. strategy, and the names that were floated as possible the most important factor of any of assors, how much candidate is do people like him? the most important question in surprise is the ing chief executive, and what does it say any paul is does this person about the strategy going care -- any poll is does this forward? >> i think you are right. person care about people like me? he has been with ing for 29 years now. everyone, with the exception of mike who needs work, everyone have -- in terms of a portrayed themselves exactly how they wanted to and gave the business mix, very light in asset management, lesson democrats a choice going forward. banking, which is the core i don't know what they are going to pick. business of ubs. it is a surprise. it is fascinating. he is held in very high regard. is to the left of where he has been at the forefront for ing and -- a lot of democrats are, but the authenticity and connection makes a big difference. tom: thank you so much for francine: the million dollar joining us. you have a wonderful vision into ing. -- how does ing question is, is 2020 different? and dutch banking survive this? do they vote for the person they like or the person they think they will survive, but can beat donald trump? dean: that is the question he was very much seen as the democrats including me -- i do whole center of everything at ing. he had been there for 29 years. not have a candidate for a variety of reasons -- what i do the ceo for six years. not know who to vote for in my he was running the whole franchise. the cfo has been there less than primary. that is a question i have. a year now. i want to beat trump. of management, that is my number one priority. they have the backing now. do you think a lot of i am quite surprised. i'm not sure who is going to democrats will be like you and fill that vacuum. vote tactically? dean: yes, we think we vote francine: talk to me about the strengths of this ing chief tactically, but almost everybody executive. is it digital strategy, and is votes with their emotions. that what ubs needs? there is all kinds of stuff is it execution or is it going on below the thinking something else? level where people's thinking is they want someone who a beard for their emotions. has experience in the banking that is why this debate was so system who has been there a long time. great. ralph hamers has those skills. i thought people put their foot -- best foot forward. tom: you are a product of where he is different from other ceo's of banks, manhattan, a fairly fancy looking to get from this. degree, on and on. tom: explained the product mix money came up a lot last night. or banking mix culture moving explain how the party of scoop from ing and stepping up to ubs. others, lbj, and the thatp: you are right on have to deal with the gilt over capitalism. dean: i don't think there is point. that is completely different. gilt over capitalism but there there is pretty much no overlap, has been. given the banks in europe. very -- one is very much on the i think capitalism works and other systems have not. investment management side, and one is the complete opposite. we are in a period of excess it is not a retail bank. with capitalism as we were in it is a large corporate the gilded age, and it is a franchise. it dominated in the northern problem. european business area,. collapsed,ocialism if it doesn't work for everybody. capitalism is not working for everybody. . it pulled away on banking that is a fact. activities. it folded is its insurance business. the real wage growth has been it is a completely new switch minimal for the last 25 years for ordinary people, so we have for him. tom: philip richards, thank you a problem and we have to fix so much. really appreciate it. love what you wrote on ing on capitalism. the bloomberg terminal. in the next hour, axel weber even mike bloomberg says there ought to be a wealth tax. that was pretty impressive. tom: howard dean, thank you so will be with us as well. it is time to speak with dr. much. weber and his responsibility as do something about charleston. ubs chairman. make it more exciting. for the international audience, mr. bloomberg is the founder of what we witnessed last night in the united states of america was is acquaintednd absolutely historic. it was not only a debate, but a unique debate which takes much with this tv and radio show as well. francine: an announcement about more than just a few minutes of video. let's capture some moments last the change at the top of another out, --nk, the ubs night from las vegas. outgoing chief executive >> the idea of china, they are taking the dirtiest coal in the speaking to the press. ibs' ralph hammers as world, mostly out of mongolia, and spreading it around the world. it is clear you make it clear when you call to washington in the new chief executive. the first 100 days. >> you will never solve this weber. speak to axel problem without china and india, western europe, and america. >> this is the only way to stay >> i welcome to mayor bloomberg to the stage. relevant and competitive in the i thought that he should not be face of clients. hiding behind his tv ads. in that sense, it is never going >> if they've got to choose to stop, this transformation. between a socialist that things capitalism is the root of all evil and a billionaire who said, not only redefining thinks that money ought to be the root of all power, let's put the need of the physical assets but also what to do in the forward somebody who actually physical space. lives and works in a ♪ middle-class neighborhood. >> democrats are not going to win if we have a nominee who has a history of hiding his tax returns, of harassing women, and of supporting racist policies like redlining and stop and frisk. >> and if there are a few people who make ugly remarks, who attacked trade union leaders, i have told those people though we are -- they are not part of our movement. tom: plural moments last night. "surveillance," this discussion moving to the next debate next tuesday in charleston. lindsay newman picking up pieces of the debate, also erik nielsen from unicredit. and gerald from pimco. i have to start with simply, they have to pick up the pieces and get to the debate tuesday in charleston. who will be on the stage tuesday in charleston? do you just assume all six will survive? do assume all six will make it to charleston. super tuesday is really going to be the next exercise. pete bridges said last night, not everybody is going to be moving on after super tuesday. tom: ok, they will all be moving on as well. the takeaway last night mr. sanders is clearly the leader in the debate. let's begin with him. how did the senator account for himself? was sort ofanders hiding in plain sight. michael bloomberg was the main storyline yesterday. the rest of the candidates, for them it is the ninth debate. for bloomberg, it is his first, so he got frontrunner treatment even though he is not the frontrunner. sanders benefited from that.

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