Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

Low for might as well, but the pboc not adding actual liquidity saying things are reasonably apple when it comes to liquidity conditions at the moment. I suppose the big question is will any of this be transmitted given that we know so many still out of the economy, essentially either stuck at home or factories still still, supply chain massively dislocated. Sarah we have seen markets across the asiapacific region turning higher. We continue to see resiliency, at least on the mainland and in hong kong. The hong kong hang seng up about. 5 , and in japan, we have seen markets turn higher as well, holding onto those gains, up about. 6 . The one that is moving to the downside bucking the trend is the south korean cosby after the country did report about 10 new coronavirus cases. You see it falling to a twoweek low, down about. 25 at the moment. Lets take a look at some other risks in the currency and commodities space. We did see copper moving higher for an eighth day and 11. Gold, though, moving a little bit higher, too, holding onto those large against that we saw yesterday, holding on above 1600 a troy ounce. We do see the yen weakening once again and extending losses after two weeks of losses, and we do see the aussie dollar moving a tad bit higher but mostly Holding Steady. Back to you guys. Haidi Holding Steady seems to be a pretty good theme for today that we are seeing in terms of the crosssections across the market. Lets get you set up with the first word news. Su keenan is in su new york with the headlines. Su we start with singapores finance minister who has leverage around 4. 5 billion u. S. Dollars to leverage the economy as it gets hit by the coronaVirus Outbreak. That means the city will post its biggest budget deficit in more than two decades. Singapore will set aside about 600 million to fight the Virus Outbreak and 4 million will be used to provide two packages to assist businesses as well as consumers. I know singapore is understandably very concerned about the impact on our businesses and jobs. I will introduce two special packages with a total budget of 5. 6 billion. To hong kong now, after more than half a year of protests, the outbreak of the coronavirus is adding to pressure on hong kongs economy. The city jobless rate rose for a fourth straight month in january, coming in at its highest level since 2016. After seeing its first annual recession in a decade last year, economists are forecasting a 1 contraction in gdp this year. That would be hong kongs first backtoback recession on record. President trump meanwhile announced a set of clemencys and pardons tuesday including michaelfinancier million and former illinois governor rod blagojevich. Milken, who was dubbed the junkbond king in the 1980s for securities fraud, and he also released locally average from prison, commuting his 14year sentence for public corruption. The president has issued more than two dozen pardons since taking office. In toent trump stepped stop his own administrations plans to stop the sale of gemade jet engines to china, tweeting the u. S. Should not become a difficult place for Foreign Countries to do business securitythe national excuse should not always be used. It represents a rare public rebuke of some of his administrations hardliners on china. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Chinas a death toll from the coronavirus has topped 2000 as global cases climb above 75,000. Still that comes as the province at the center of the outbreak continues to report fewer additional cases. Tom, let me start with you. Please walk us through the latest numbers. Tom it is a sad sign when we get above that 2000 level in terms of total deaths from this disease, but equally importantly, potentially, is the fact that we now have a second day of slowing additional infections out of the epicenter, so a little under 1007 hundred additional cases. The total now, as you say, globally around 75,000, but that slowing pace of infections reinforces what we have been hearing from some of the medical experts, including one who was an advisor to the Chinese Government who says he thinks it could peak, at least in the southern part of china, some were between the middle of february in the end of february as well. Those are numbers we continue to watch on a daily basis. The World Health Organization also praising china for its aggressive quarantine measures saying that it may have led to a window of two or three weeks for countries outside or beyond china to put in place measures to ensure their Health Systems are prepared for the virus, but of course, the impact continues to be felt, and we know officials in that province are stepping up attempts to track down people who may not have or may have escaped the notice of medical experts, by tracking pharmaceutical drugs pharmacies across the province are using, the surveillance officials have, so they are trying to trace everyone to account for each individual and make sure numbers are accurate. The meantime, beijing continue to offer assurances it will beat its economic goals this year. Economistsand many wonder if that is feasible and to what extent additional stimulus will need to come down the pipeline to get to that point, but we did hear from president xi jinping, apparently in a phone call with u. K. Leader boris johnson, saying there was resilience in the chinese economy. Those economic goals, as we have heard already, would be met. We have seen policy adjustments, of course and additional fiscal or Monetary Policy support, but we also see the data showing broad pressure on the chinese economy. If you look at the travel sector, the number of trips that have been taken to the start of the lunar new york, a drop of one point 4 billion compared to 2019, so you can imagine the impact across the travel sector, and in terms of heavy industry, we have seen energy use, electricity use falling off a cliff, and sectors like steel and oil and coal fell below their usual level of output. Ramped up output. The private sector is feeling a lot of pain and will need that adjustment and we are seeing that change, of course, in terms of supply chains and having to adjust to that, companies, and of course, needing to get employees back. Travel members. 2 difficulty of getting workers back to home provinces into the factories around china so we can kickstart the economy again. Shery we are hearing from local media in japan saying the passengers on that cruise ship have started disembarking. What do we know . The quarantine is over. Japan is trying to assure the public it has done everything it can to contain this virus. We are learning that 500 people today will be able to get off this vessel, ending weeks of turmoil, especially as one in seven people on board the diamond princess contracted this disease. We are counting at least 540 cases now. What we have learned is that no has led to preferences as who will be getting a first, but only those who have passed a final that he could check will be able to get off. Some Health Experts say these measures japan has taken so far may not be enough to contain the spread of this outbreak, given the fact that the people that hailed from this cruise line come from 50 Different Countries and as they return home, there is a concern now that this vessel is the source of a fresh wave of global infection. In the meantime, the Economic Future continues to dim for hong kong, the jobless rate rising for a fourth straight month in january. Talk about backtoback fears. On you are painting a pretty grim picture for the economy. That jobless rate is the highest weve seen in four years. We have seen an uptick in the unemployment numbers, and this is not even fully reflecting the impact from the coronaVirus Outbreak. Omberg economics therefore Bloomberg Economics forecasting it could reach 5 . As you mentioned, economists start to think we could be heading into backtoback recessions for the First Time Ever hong kong has seen that. They are forecasting no more than 1 contraction in 2020 following the one point 2 decline we saw last year, which does suggest a bigger impact and slower recovery than what we saw back in 2003 during sars, so all. Yes on carrie lam next week shery joining us for more analysis is sarah lane, a spring s client portfolio manager. Given what we do not know about this virus and what the recovery looks like, how do you, i guess, gild your portfolio . How much are you looking to take shelter in terms of havens, and how much are you being opportunistic about . In reality at east spring, we have not changed our portfolio much as a response to what is going on in the market with regards to the coronavirus. It was this, we thought we would have huge buying opportunities and an opportunity to really go shopping and refresh work folios, but that only lasted for a day or two. The market reopened in china on february 3, and there were some bargains to be had, but in general, the markets kind of looking through this, i would say, and a lot of people are extrapolating what happened in a sars in 2003 to what is happening now and assuming that q1 is going to be pretty nasty, but looking forward, you know, the growth pattern we saw in the beginning of this year and late last year should reassert itself , and those Asset Classes that were doing well should continue to do well, so there have not been huge valuation dislocations through this crisis. However, we are looking to buy durable businesses, good businesses where we see a good. Ividend yield and good upside there are opportunities to be had, but you have to be very selective. I think you have to be careful what you pay because the market has not sold off sharply as we had expected it would when the coronavirus first hit the news. Haidi we have seen dislocations when it comes to the earnings forecast. I want to drop a chart in our bloomberg terminal looking at the diversions we have seen in asia depending on the sectors. Commodities assets have been the hardest hit in the selloff post the coronavirus story on the upside, probably also surprising youve seen upgrades when it comes to the health care sector. If you are talking about picking up good companies, what sectors, what names would you be looking at the moment . I think the obvious place for us to look is in the consumer area. The consumer area has been very expensive, particularly in consumer staples, and that is the area at the spring he espring we have been most active in. That has fallen off with sentiment on the chinese economy souring. In terms of earnings, it is a little early to say. We saw apple numbers come out and this will have repercussions on the manufacturing supply chain throughout taiwan, for example, so, you know, these are things to think about, but overall, the longterm picture still seems pretty robust. Shery given that in the shortterm, we really dont know what will happen with this Virus Outbreak and when we could see the peak, how important is it that despite the fact that you are adding new names, you are still staying defensive . Say we are would not staying totally defensive. We have come from a portfolio perspective, we have some positions that are more defensive, some cyclical. I think the key is to be diversified, to look across the spectrum and try to find those opportunities where we think the businesses in a lot of cases, the businesses are priced pretty cheaply. They have good, steady earnings, good, steady cash flows. Solid and sustainable dividend yields, and those opportunities should persist throughout this period and into the future. Shery thank you very much for sticking around. We will go to the source of singapores stimulus as well. Singapores deputy Prime Minister and finance minister joins us in one hour right here on Bloomberg Markets asia. Views of next, more on Monetary Policy and the earnings outlook as well. Here why she says some companies could be using the coronaVirus Outbreak as a convenient excuse. Plus, we speak to an asset manager who still says she is overweight chinas highyield debt despite the fallout from the virus. This is bloomberg. We are hearing from the japanese cabinet secretary, speaking in tokyo regarding the disembarkation of these passengers off the diamond princess, saying that all possible measures are being taken to secure the health of the passengers and measures have been taken since february 5 to theent infections on cruise. We know one in seven passengers on that cruise has tested positive for the coronavirus, a total of 542 confirmed cases on that ship. In fact, 88 new virus cases were announced just yesterday. Japan starting the practice of letting passengers who have been tested for the new coronavirus off the diamond princess cruise ship that is docked in yokohama. That is starting today, and the Health Minister saying he expects all passengers to be off the ship by february 21 and that viral samples have been taken from all passengers aboard this ship. Those that test positive will be taken straight to hospital. It is pretty extraordinary because now we know Something Like 55 of all the coronavirus cases outside of Mainland China far off that ship or come from that ship. Yeah, the largest cluster of infections outside china. What a relief it must be for those passengers who are leaving the quarantine that they were under since february 5 after that passenger had disembarked in hong kong in late january tested positive for the virus. Of course, we have seen many countries also trying to evacuate their citizens from that cruise ship. Lets discuss now the marketable occasions with this ongoing coronaVirus Outbreak. Thank you very much for sticking around. Lets talk about japan, since we are looking at those pictures. Several hundred cruise passengers today to leave over the next three days according to the cabinet secretary, who is talking about those passengers on the cruise ship, but we have seen pretty bad data out of japan. We are talking about fourthquarter gdp numbers slowing to the lowest since 2014. Today, machine orders were so bad, and yet, the boj does not really have that much room to do more, right . What are we expecting in terms of assets when it comes to japan . Quickly have a lot of money at work in japan. The market is cheap. We have great valuation signals, and we see great businesses there. Companies in japan have been operating in a low Interest Rate environment for longer than anywhere else, so they are not counting on the government to stimulate them, necessarily. A lot of businesses we own have net cash balance sheets, are priced as if they are going to go out of business, in fact, and we see good quality, good management, and definitely a much better Corporate Governance type of outlook. I think japan you do need to be selective, but we do see good pockets of opportunity. We have also been active since the coronaVirus Outbreak on the property site in japan. If you look at what has been really hard hit, like hotels, for example, we still think theres some great value opportunities in japan, opportunities to be contrarian. We know the olympics is coming up soon. We have been poking around in japan because we are seeing good value in the property space there as well. Shery many people seem to like the property sectors not only in japan but across asia, even in hong kong. How important are these incomeoriented Investment Strategies . I think it is very important. We have been very focused on property. Our clients have a genuine interest in property, and i think theres a number of reasons. You mentioned the dividend, the more clear earnings streams we see. The property market, when you look at hong kong, has held up really strongly irrespective of what has been happening over the last year, so there are good opportunities in the property space. China property markets sold off a bit, about 20 since the coronaVirus Outbreak, but if you look at it, Hubei Province is less than 5 of the national sails in china last year, so it is a small part, in fact, so if you look at the overall growth picture and overall profile, property is the ultimate middleclass consumption play and we think there are plenty of opportunities. It is a very broad space and an opportunity to get some good value. Central banks saying 2020 will be the time for more heavy lifting. We are hearing that sentiment from south korea. We are seeing that in the blockbuster budget and singapore as well. How much upside does that lift to equities and asset prices, or does it still go back to the pboc and the spread . I think it does lend some credibility. It also enhances sentiment. Lets face it sentiment is a big driver of markets, especially in asia, so i think having that sort of crushed to lean on is giving confidence to the markets, but at the same time, it is kicking a can down the road, not necessarily solving problems, so the market is trying to weigh it somewhat to think fiscal and monetary stimulus is being supported and doing its job, but the issues are not going away. I think we need to work through all of this through time. Haidi thank you so much for joining us. Be sure to keep up to date on this developing coronavirus story. You can run the function on your bloomberg and find our quicktake learning page. Headlines from the Bloomberg News room as well as how specific Companies May be exposed. This is bloomberg. Shery heres a quick check of the markets we are seeing broad outside pressure for markets across asia. We are seeing the hang seng index gaining. 5 after falling the most in two weeks. Asia shares also rising the most in about a week while the nikkei is up. 7 . Only small caps seem to be falling at the moment. Coming up, virus pressure on asian economies continues to rise with hong kong facing recession. This is bloomberg. P. M. In hong kong , we start with the death toll o

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