1 . Travel and leisure one of the major Industry Groups lower, and contributing to that loss, brent crude did top 70. It is now 69. 35. Gold futures were up to 1575 announce. That may be the biggest indicator of tensions in markets. Still the top story, escalating tensions in the middle east after the u. S. Killed a rainy and general killed iranian soleimani m general custom soleimani general kassem soleimani. They will see the consequent as of their mistake in not only today, but in the years to come. President trump has been warning against any major retaliation, and moments ago, tweeted this. Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. By the senior how close is iran to having an operable Nuclear Weapon . The iranians have said they will no longer abide by the nuclear deal that the United States reached in 2018 United States breached in 2018, and they will go full tilt toward develop at of nuclear technology. Based on varying estimates, the good have a Nuclear Weapon within a year to five years. Downsidene of the real consequent as of what the president has done, that easy retaliation on the part of the iranians is to go forward with its nuclear program. Vonnie obviously markets arent quite pricing and the worst case scenario, but there is trepidation out there. How close are we to open conflict in the region . Reporter we are certainly closer than we were before. But i think people are getting a little carried away, i dont believe there is going to be a war in the deserts of iraq between the United States and iran. As a run has been hinting at, they will take their time and respond in places of their using rangingey have methods from cyberattacks to targeting americans abroad. I think the United States should be prepared that there will be retaliation, but the idea that there is going to be regional is ther this i think least likely result. , at oncehis rhetoric asking that there be no retaliation, and at the same time prodding iran, prodding a , does itrodding iraq lead to some kind of diplomacy . Ffort is that even in the range of possibilities . It does speak to do things that make policy got that much more difficult. First, the president likes to cultivate the image of someone who is unpredictable and tough, and that one day he is taking a very tough stance on the next day calling for peace and saying he doesnt want war in an effort to keep his opponents off balance, but it really suggests is a strategic incoherence of his policy. You cannot be saying you want peace yet take actions that escalate potential conflict. You cant be saying you want to reduce the american presence in the middle east and take actions that actually increase the american presence. Interlocutorys thirdparty interclick cuter thirdparty interlocutors do not a how to approach the iranians because they are quite unsure about what u. S. Policy actually is. Vonnie this brings us to his advisors. We know that National Security advisor robert bryan is one of the main people advising President Trump, and Richard Goldberg is leaving. What do we know about his positions beyond the fact that he wants to reduce the nsa significantly, and it has already been reduced . Steven robert bryan is someone who is robert bryan is someone who is well respected, but not someone who will speak truth to power. He has echoed the administrations position that there was an imminent threat emanating from general Qasem Soleimani and that it required a strike against him. That may have been the case, but one has to wonder whether the administration, which seems to have made this decision rather quickly, had run through the possible scenarios that could result as a result of killing soleimani. Vonnie what is the potential for getting iran back to the table for talks in any capacity . We know the president is a little unpredictable, so that wouldnt be completely out of the question if around were to agree to it if iran were to agree to it. Is it just too much of a fiery issue now in the middle east come with potentially millions of people protesting over the weekend . Is pretty clear from the statement of iranian leaders that they are intent on retaliation, and now is not a moment when they are going to to get back to the negotiating table. Once they have taken those steps, perhaps cooler heads will prevail, but what the United States has done has been tantamount to essentially killing the commander of American Special operations, or the Deputy Director of the cia for operations. That is how senior Qasem Soleimani was. It doesnt seem like the moment is ripe for the iranians to come back to the negotiating table. Vonnie talk to us about the iranian economy. Some sanctions placed on it by the u. S. Have already ensured that gdp has contracted by 10 this year alone. How much more can the screws get turned . Steven once again, this is an unintended consequence of what the Trump Administration has done. The economy was taking a significant toll on the iranian people, who were rising up against the government and demanding change, which is something the United States has wanted. Yet, the attack on Qasem Soleimani seems to have created a nationalist fervor, and more cohesion in iran and support for the government and there has been for months. Even if the screws are turned even tighter and iranians suffer, the great affront of the killing of Qasem Soleimani may not have the kind of effect that it would have had had the United States not taken that drabek step. Vonnie so effect that dramatic step. Vonnie so effectively, youre talking about iran that had been weakened in some sense, and this is paradoxically serving against the president s wishes by empowering that administration. . Ow do they not retaliate now steven i think it is almost a certainty that the iranians will retaliate in some fashion. As i had before, i dont expect there to be major middle eastern battlefield that pits u. S. Forces against iranian forces. They will work in those gray , working with their proxies to go after americans were American Allies or interests around the region, using cyberattacks, trying to underline American Allies, striking out american targets outside the region. Is three of going in those areas. Vonnie how angry are they with the United States right now . Is there anything they can do to sort of appease iran, keep iran at least in a deal with those confidence . C with those with those continents . Given the actions and reactions over the course of the last few weeks, with the United States ultimately taking the step of killing Qasem Soleimani and the iranians pulling out of the deal, it strikes me that that deal is now dead, and there is very little the europeans can do. They have been the main player in trying to maintain the deal. Theres very little they can do in order to salvage it at this point. Vonnie thank you for your time today. That is steven cook, cfr senior fellow for middle east and african studies. This check in now on first word news. Heres viviana hurtado. Today, today viviana jury selection begins in the trial against disgraced hollywood mogul harvey weinstein. He has pleaded not guilty. He says any Sexual Activity was consensual. Some respite for firefighters in australia. Cooler weather and some rain or helping attempt to control raging bushfires. Still, authorities morning dangerous authorities morning dangerous conditions will return. Been forced into makeshift camps. After seven months of unrest, china naming a Party Official described as a strongman as its new top official in hong kong, a signal that china wants to restore law and order there. He has no experience in hong kong, but he is a communist party loyalist. Recent job, he enforced a campaign to root out corruption. Asvenezuela, political chaos Security Officials blocked Opposition Leader juan guaido and supporters to enter the general assembly, allowing supporters of Nicolas Maduro to choose their own assembly leader. Leaders got on site and reelected quite of anyway. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Calling. , natura Brazilian Company natura cosmeticos can now call itself the owner of avon. Chairman joins me next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. Avon products has been trying to make a comeback. Today it officially has a new natura. Razils is the coexecutive chairman roberto marques. Congratulations. What are your main priorities now for this new company . Thank you for having us. It is a very exciting day that we got listed on the New York Stock Exchange after completing the deal. Our priorities are to continue avon to this amazing new heights. We believe in the direct selling that a string forming itself to a social selling platform. We believe that what we used to ladies, ding dong, is becoming more click click, hightech. We can accelerate to over 6 million consultants and representative globally. Just deciding that multilevel marketing has social networks, how else do you continue to make multilevel marketing work . It is essentially the same kind of business plan, just on a different platform. Roberto weve been doing that with natura for 50 years. The notion that the representative is the consultant the representative and the consultant really become beauty advisors, and it comes from the relationship with the company. It is just that the network that used to be offline is now transforming itself to online, and the power that we now have is the direct to Consumer Group can reach over 200 Million People every day. We believe it is very powerful. Vonnie you also own aesop and body shop, and they have been doing extraordinarily well for a long time. Lessons will you take from those brands and move to avon . Brings is thist notion of move to channel. We have over 3000 physical stores with the body shop and aesop, and we believe that consumers can and should find products in this notion of multichannel. Yes, social selling is super important, and it is transforming the relationship, but we also believe in the kopelman terry in the couple mentorin in the ty of selling in stores. Vonnie youve also been trying a1 allard trying a1 our Delivery Service and working with multilevel marketers. What is it doing for your bottom line, for your revenue . How much , and how much trickles down to the bottom line for avon . Roberto again, we are talking about a commercial model that we the services and offerings to the representatives and consultants. If you think about it, natura is only present in six markets in latin america. The opportunity now for the representatives of avon to potentially have the natura brand in markets like russia, south africa, the philippines are really powerful, and those things will help the representatives to increase their earnings and improve the service levels. Vonnie i am curious because it feels like Bigger Companies have been getting out of these kind of businesses. Our example, the north american part of avon was sold to cerberus, but then exited it just a few years later, and exited at a loss, which is very unusual for private equity, and sold to a south korean firm. Then it sold its majority stake in unique. Im curious as to why you think this is still a Business Model that survives. Roberto we are very about a renaissance. This is transforming itself from what used to be, again, just the doortodoor offline to now 6. 4 millionaging micro influencers using social tools like instagram, facebook, youtube, whatsapp to be able to connect and establish the relationship with consumers. In fact, we think this is the present and the future. We are seeing a renaissance of direct selling, and even in u. S. , you see examples of other companies that build very strong business based on this notion of social selling. For us, it is about the relationship selling which, in the past, was offline and now online. Ing marcus congratulations roberto marques, congratulations. 1. 6 . Ock is now up lets check markets with abaco doolittle. Abigail with increasing global tensions at risk, we have a risk off tone for global markets. The s p 500 in the u. S. Off of its lows, down 0. 2 , down for a second day in a row. Right now starting with the possibility of a yeartodate decline. Of course, the year is young, but it is interesting to see it moving that way. In europe, the german dax down 0. 9 percent. The ftse 100 in london down about 0. 6 , but clearly there is one winner to the fallout of these increasing tensions in the middle east. That is crude. Brent crude, also known as european crude, up 1 . Lets look at i one your chart because theres been so much volatility over the last year. The risk rally was up more than 25 , then down 25 . Netnet at this point, up about 21 . From an official bull market from Fourth Quarter volatility, that is what we are seeing for brent crude on fears that perhaps some of saudi arabias facilities could come under attack again with these increasing tensions in the middle east. Not surprisingly, we have a haven response. Haven assets are fairly strong. Bonds rally and once again over the last three days, the best rally for bonds in about two and a half months. The yen is rallying once again. We also have the vix up modestly. Gold is the big winner. Take a look at that, up 1. 5 at 1574 per ounce. We put this into the context of a terminal and the bloomberg index, we see that gold is. Verbought this is the highest level in a few years,s adjusting the recent rally for gold may stall or consolidate. Vonnie abigail doolittle, think you for that. Bushfires deadly continue to rage across australia with seemingly no end in sight. The latest as Prime MinisterScott Morrison play just Scott Morrison pledges funds for relief efforts. This is an initial investment of 2 billion. If more is needed and the cost is higher, the cost will be provided. Vonnie its time for your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Fell more than expected in the Fourth Quarter. Had its best cup Truck Performance since 2005 best pickup Truck Performance since 2005. Citigroup plans to hire 5000 programmers this year. Citisar, roughly 3 4 of trade orders were electronic. Jobs will be located in the and others. , according to dow jones, boeing had about 20 billion in cash at the end of the third quarter, with a cost associated with the max rising. They expect to raise about 5 billion. The stock is down about 1 right now. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Lets get a quick process that asset quick cross check. The fx is down, but the stock 600 down 0. 5 . Brent crude just stabilizing of the lows. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. Lets check in on the first word news with viviana hurtado. Viviana President Trump talking tough on both iran and iraq, telling reporters last night if tehran retaliates for the killing of a top general, hes willing to hit cultural sites in iran. Hes also threatening heavy sanctions on iraq if u. S. Troops are forced to leave the country. The president says iraq those billions in military base construction costs. Iran taking at least one step in response to the generals killing, tehran will no longer comply with digitally 15 nuclear deal. Francis finance ministers says for mies is close. President him frances finance minister says compromise is close. In the u. K. , the opposition ly beginsrty formal the contest to replace jeremy corbyn. He said after last years crushing electoral defeat he would resign. The party thinking to its lowest since of seats 1935. Bankers warning of the effects of a low Interest Rate world. Mario draghi and janet yellen say Central Banks alone do not have the tools to cope. They spoke at the National EconomicAssociations Annual meeting. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im the vienna hurtado. This is im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Areorities in australia counting the costs of the devastating bushfires after one of the worst weekends in the crisis so far. Heres more from sidney. Reporter by any measure, it has been a calamitous weekend in australias months long bushfire crisis. Hundreds of properties are destroyed, and the death toll has risen to 23. M