Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713

Markets, yields are continuing to move up. When you look at the japanese 10 year, we are flirting with the zero line. At some point, maybe, we will see if we break above the japanese 10 year. Let me end on this. Some markets are substantially down for the week. The dollar is also seeing a drop. 1 , that is ahead of the u. S. Jobs numbers, which comes out later today. Su keenan is with eyes. She is going to update is with us. She is going to update us. Su lets get right to the newest. We are going to start with china, which has competed has repeated it is going to remain in close contact with the u. S. Over trade. Reports suggest the two sides montharing a recorded 20 spat. The u. S. Intends to impose duties on more chinese imports if a deal is not struck by december 15. A new report says Political Uncertainty in the u. K. Is planning have playing havoc with the job market. Wage pressures continuing to ease. The Employment Federation says companies delayed or canceled plans last month. Workers are hesitant about seeking new jobs amid confusion about brexit and the general election. Indian markets fell after the reserve bank unexpectedly kept Interest Rates on hold. It was the fifth time this year the r. B. I. Downgraded its outlook will economists had been expecting a sixth consecutive rate cut. Policymakers lowered growth forecasts to 5 from octobers 6. 1 . Heldg, the jet maker, has talks with pilot crew pilots and cabin crew in attempts to build trust in the changes it is making to the 5 two the 737 max. It is confident the new software Regulatory Approval. It had been grounded since march. Say boeing isrews a long way from regaining trust. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im su keenan. This is bloomberg. Opec has reached a deal on oil supply. The market forecaster turned to a surplus next year. Ministers in vienna agreed to deepen the target by 5000 barrels a day, normalizing the supply restrictions that had been in place for most of the year. Still a lot of details on how they are going to comply. David the decision must be ratified by the wider group. Lets get more details if we can. Stephen, our Energy Reporter, is with us to talk about talk to us about market expectations. Is also, 500 k , but that but that is all we know. We have been hearing since yesterday there had been some l deal for 500a k. They were having meetings with opec plus, which includes russia. Once that is formalize, we will have a better idea of who they will be cutting and how much it will be spread out. The market is expecting 500 k. That is what folks were telling our reporters. Who is going to making the cuts. Since there was an agreement last year to cut 1. 2 Million Barrels a day, there has been an saudit led by arabia to add 500 k barrels a day. By making an agreement for 500 k from the first quarter, that is formalizing something these countries have already been doing. You look at countries like iraq or nigeria, they have not been cutting not been making the quota they have been promised since last year. We will see whether or not the opec and opec plus members will be looking to get nigeria and iraq had more and cut to add more and cut. How the 500 k is spread out something the market is watching closely. Yvonne watch for a beautiful news tomorrow according to the saudi oil minister. You think it all lived up to the kingdoms expectation . In 2016 said they were hoping for a 2 trillion valuation. Yesterday, they set the higher level for their ipo price at 32 riyals. That values the company at 1. 7 trillion. It is still a large valuation. It is not the 2 trillion dollars that mbs had been looking for. This is a smaller ipo then they had imagined. They thought they would ipo london and japan. All these places. Most of the folks investing in this ipo look to be local people in saudi arabia who have the wealth to put into this investment. Did it live up to what they were hoping for . Not quite. It is still going to be the biggest ipo in history. There are a lot of eyeballs on it for the moment. David it is going to be a big story. Thank you so much. Scott darling is with us, the research and gas. Onust want to get your take what did not take place overnight. I believe it was yvonne the saudi oil minister. David waiting for beautiful news. What do you think it will be . Said i think what stephen was broadly in expectations. We will see what the deeper cut is. The Energy Minister was pushing the deeper cut and extending that through 2020. It will come down to compliance and which countries are complying. Moree can opec achieve discipline without deeper cuts . What are you foreseeing . The demandhink on side, there is recovery for Global Oil Demand growth. This year has been around. 7. We have had a little bit of sluggishness on the demand side. If demand picks up and you get some countries like iraq and nigeria complying more, that should see a slightly more tight market. David give is a number then, whether it is when give us a number then, whether it is 100 what is the number that takes oil off the market . Ittt a better way to say is, what oil price doing need to invest in an oilfield . We have a view of 60. Jp morgan, a couple years back, did a survey of companies we cover. We basically said, what oil price tonight what oil price doing need to cover my spending . 65. Ame out with we are at the cusp of offshore projects, whether you actually want to invest or not. Yvonne we have been talking about the 500,000 barrels cut. At least to rebalance the market at all, or is it cosmetic at this point . , 60 to 75general brent forecast. We are around that. Most analysts and brokers like our selves whether it is 59 or 65, i do not know. Around these types of levels is the level which may be slightly higher the opec field comes. David your outlook, you just published that. Scott you see European Energy companies had to justify their Business Models to investors this year, especially around environment. That has not been the case for asia energy coverage. We think 2020 will be the first year where investors and the public start to talk more about the companys listed here and there environmental track record. We believe that goes in hand with social and government and governance aspects as well. We also have our esg data, which we look at Different Companies and rank them on a certain esg score. What we found where we when we look at our companies, there is a correlation between good esg and good cash yield and dividend yield. Those companies are doing a good job. We think that will differentiate the energy companies. David is there a cost attached to that . At some point, the Business Model changes slightly. Scott agreed, on the environmental slide is environmental side. On the social and governmental side, that can be done with the amount of women in the workforce, just doing a better job. Yvonne can you give us some examples of some companies that have made progress . Scott companies with good esg a woodside walling company. Countries that are making good progress, petro china, those type of companies. Screening also good for improving esg and free cash and dividend outlook. David what is driving that . Those were the big chinese names. I was not expecting those names to top the list. Scott partly, it is the drivenent that has and ingrained in some of the national companies. It is investors. Investors are talking to us to say, who has the best esg score of your coverage . They are being told by their investors. Yvonne we were just talking to a previous guest about commodities as a whole this year have not outperformed the rest of the Asset Classes. Do you see that to be the case for 2020 . Scott our strategic view is there is very much value in commodities stocks. We see a value rotation as we go into next year. Performance has been, the macro has not been strong. If you look at price action of the underlying commodity, oil has not done much all of this year. We are already seeing that kick in. For a better refining year of 2020 then we have had this year. Van Bloomberg Markets balance of power bloomberg than hit we have had this year. Yvonne thank you for joining us. We look ahead at the situation in hong kong after a relatively quiet few days. There are plans for more protests this week. David up next, nancy pelosi says the house will draft articles of impeachment against President Trump. Possibly coming before christmas. This is bloomberg. David welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets. Speaker nancy pelosi is stepping up the timetable for impeaching President Trump, putting the house in motion towards a historic vote. The president leaves us no choice but to act because he is trying to corrupt the election for his own benefit. The president has engaged in abuse of power, undermining our National Security and jeopardizing the integrity of our elections. Yvonne lets bring in our Senior National editor, jodi schneider. What happens next . It looks like nancy pelosi moving the house towards a rapid timetable towards impeachment. Next would come the articles of impeachment. So far, it has been an impeachment inquiry. They are looking like this could happen by the Time Congress leaves for the recess, the holiday recess, on december 20. She has instructed the chairman of the three committees dealing with the impeachment increase. They are all democrats as democrats have and troll of the chamber. Two draft article have control of the chamber. Start doing that. We heard from jerrold nadler, who was the who is the chairman of the house judiciary committee. That he thinks there is at least three articles of impeachment on abuse of bribery, and obstruction. The house reminds to remind everyone, the house acts as a prosecutor in this process. They bring the articles of impeachment. They say, here is the case. The senate acts as the jury. They will have a trial on the articles of impeachment. David 30 years ago, a history lesson. People have forgotten. Republicans expected to fight this . Republicans are already fighting this. We heard from the majority leader. He said this is politically motivated. It is an election cycle. We expect there will be a fair bit of that, people siding with the president. He tweeted out President Trump that he would like to see this go quickly. He would like a senate trial so he can clear his name. The senate will act as jury. It is republicancontrolled. It is highly unlikely they would vote to impeach and would not vote to remove the president. There is a real question of whether some republicans will vote with democrats given how strong the case may be. Yvonne thank you. Our Senior National editor. We have plenty more ahead. This is bloomberg. Yvonne lets get to your latest business flash headlines. Hong Kong Airlines is expecting a cash injection by saturday. That is according to an interview with the carriers ceo. The ceo says the money will ensure the survival for now. The hong kong aviation Licensing Authority said it would make a decision by saturday after assessing the improvement to its finances. Uber fell in late trade after it reported more than 3000 allegations of Sexual Assault last year. Evenlyims were split between drivers and passengers. Around 50 people were killed in over collisions over the past two years. The findings are part of the ride hailers safety review. At 2020ets have a look the lists of worries and how these rank. We talked with steve schwarzman. He is not afraid of a recession. He says it is political disruption when it comes to geopolitics as the biggest risk to global politics. He spoke with bloomberg and discussed what it would take to end the trade war. The gradualakes is opening of china. If we are just talking about china. Moreheir adoption of traditional types of practices in the developed world. I think they recognize over time, that needs to happen, and it would be good for them. It represents major change from the way china has been managed. Negotiations have not been the easiest because you are asking someone to adopt different types of approaches that are more common in the developed world. I do not think china will ever abandon a lot of the fundamental system. Of its the game is to rebalance it in a way that makes more sense as china becomes wealthier. I know you said you are not afraid of an eminent recession. There are of an i mminent recession. They were all kinds of unusual things that happen in the world. Sixth sense is that geopolitical issues are the great unknown, which could have very substantial consequences. With iran, do they become militarily aggressive and interfere with the supply for the rest of the world . You have issues like north korea. Hat happens there you have issues with china on numerous kinds of levels. You never know which one of these things, let alone other things, are going to happen. The world has become much more integrated for a lot of Different Reasons including the internet where peoples behavior, which used to be not correlated. All of a sudden, people around the world star acting in the same way. The conventional start acting in the same way. The conventional cycle of overproduction of certain types economicthat lead to slowdowns and so forth does not worth the risk for me. What has happened with Interest Rates, which are now so low that it is almost a natural. What happens if they reverse . If we get some inflation, a little inflation would be fine for most of the world, but if that goes up a lot, there are always risks to economies. At the moment, the low Interest Rates have stimulated the world enough that it seems to be rolling along. States, lower income workers for the first time are getting much bigger increases. Somewhere around three and a half and 4 . It is 70 of the spending of the american consumer. They spend more. More they spend, the more the economy keeps growing. It is not in conventional cycle. And in conventional cycle. I did not see it falling off a cliff. David that was steve schwarzman, the chairman and ceo of blackstone. Yvonne lets take a look at the movers in the asian section. Watching tech punching higher. Up 8 . A solid two day session. He japanese pharma company. Out with a drug for the alzheimers disease. Shares close to 7 . Upgrading the stock here to and overweight for the sherries for the ashares. A Construction Company in australia has been cited for a probe on a financial irregularity. That stock down 7 . This is bloomberg. In hong kong9 a. M. And shanghai. I am su keenan with the first word headlines. We start with the u. S. State department, which says evidence is emerging that more than 1000 people may have been killed by Government Forces during recent protests against higher gas prices in iran. Thannternational says more 200 people have died. The u. S. Puts the total for higher. Iran acknowledge for the first time that it Security Forces have killed protesters. Isthe saudi aramco deal, it it has successfully owned to worlds biggest public offering. Billion raising 25. 6 billion. The ipo values the Energy Company at 1. 7 trillion dollars. That is below the kingdoms hopes of 2 trillion. It is part of their plans to wean the saudi economy off of fossil fuel. Australia has issued emergency warnings over bushfires raging across New South Wales and the queensland border. Several communities are being oo late to expect rescue teams. The air quality is rated as hazardous. Shows thethis week air as more polluted than shanghai. Violence flared in paris and across france as trade unions went on strike in protest against plans for pension reform. The Train Service, nuclear plants, and garbage collection workers all walked off the job. People a half million took action across the country. It is the biggest protest against president macron since he took office two and a half years ago. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im su keenan. This is bloomberg. Yvonne more signs of the trade war is affecting china. We are expecting numbers from november. Lets go over to beijing and analyst anor, the the latest in this trade war. Eleanor, ed has been quite a crazy week when it comes to catching up on all these trade headlines. Trump president downplaying the prospects of getting a phase one deal before the election. Which we put that into should we put any value into that statement . I think he was talking off the cuff. Anytime get close to signing the deal, there is a lot of spit bowling from the white house and mixed messages. What i see happening now is the theater around signing the deal. These are the political elements. It is not about the content of the deal or whether or not tariffs will be rolled back. These are the issues that are being spoken about for phase one. Ifid would you consider we do get to a point where they sign a phase i agreement, do you that is you think that is an agreement on the Purchase Agreement or phase i agreement . It will leave to the side more structural issues guarding chinas industrial policy or data around protectionism, which is going to be a key problem in terms of china and the u. S. Relationship going forward. Yvonne when it comes to december 15, do you expect the current tariffs to be lifted . What would it take for the u. S. We sawally lift tariffs in september and previous ones . What would china have to give in that situation . We see it as unlikely the previous tariffs will be lifted. We are expecting the 15 december tariff deadline to be extended to continue negotiations. In order for that to be a widescale drawback of tariffs, they would have to tackle more structural issues regarding policy and data protect

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