Has investors start to reassess risk. The other risk that needs to be reassessed, are we underpricing the fact we could see an upset in the conservative majority, cable down. 2 . Coming up, a host of interviews from the bloombergs Economy Forum. Tomorrow, standard chartereds ceo anddman sachs former white house adviser gary cohn, an absolutely stunning lineup. Lets get the first word news with Viviana Hurtado. He didnt initially realize the white house was putting unacceptable pressure on ukraine, this from a former envoy. Joe biden. Ng former special envoy kurt volker was one of four witnesses yesterday. Next will be Gordon Sondland. The fed minutes will likely reinforce rates are on hold. Chairman powell addressed the congress twice last week. The signal policy is in a good place provided there isnt a material reassessment of the outlook. The key thing from the minutes will be what that phrase means. Protests in iran have left at least 106 people dead according to amnesty international. Thousands took to the streets after authorities increased gas prices as much as 300 . Arrestedforces thousands. Netanyahu isnjamin calling on rivals to form a unity government. According to the jerusalem post, he hopes for a deal with his main opponent after reports of a power sharing between the rivals. Contract runs until the end of the 2020 three season. He oversaw an unfortunate spell of manchester united, he hosted chelsea and milan. Global news 24 hours a day, onair and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Nejra thank you so much. Lets get to breaking news and the ecb publishing its Financial Stability review. The takeaway is the ecb is flagging risk to Financial Stability from its own stimulus. Some of the headlines to draw your attention to is the ecb sees signs of excessive risktaking in some sectors. Seems the possibility of a it sees the possibility of a contraction by 2020 come at a possibility rising to 22 . A renewed cutie could cause shall qe could cause shortages in the report market. Potential side effects from its loose Monetary Policy, highlighting how years of stimulus designed to bolster the economy is leading to an erosion of Financial Stability. The Financial Stability review is pointing to the side effects of low rates and is noting the weakening profitability prospects of euro area banks. Globalave been saying, stocks have taken a hit after the u. S. Senate passed a bill aimed at supporting protesters in hong kong and warning china against violent suppression of the demonstrations. Beijing has warned of retaliation. Lets get to Senior Editor jodie snyder. Weve got warning Jodi Schneider. Weve got warnings of retaliations. Do we have any sense of what form they might take . U know, nejra they said they will retaliate forcefully if this legislation is passed, if it becomes law. The Senate Passed it, but it is not quite the law. Both chambers have to reconcile slight differences in their bills before they send it to President Trumps desk and we have not specifically heard from President Trump on whether he will sign the legislation. Nejra . And that is the key question, isnt it how the present isnt it . What is the likelihood of this becoming law . A pretty good likelihood at this point. Both chambers, and even if President Trump or not to sign to veto it, they probably have enough votes to override a veto and we heard from Vice President pence in recent days sounding basically saying it would be hard to do trade deals if there is violence against the hong kong protesters, so that would seem to indicate support for this bill. The bill, what it does is require the state department to certify annually that hong kong remains officially autonomous to be able to justify that special trading status that the u. S. Has with hong kong, a different status than with the rest of china. Nejra Jodi Schneider in hong kong, thank you so much. The senate vote martic challenge to the government in beijing as the u. S. And china seek to close a parliamentary agreement. The deal that fell apart six months ago is being used as a benchmark to decide how much tariffs should be rolled back in a broader agreement according to bloomberg sources. Lets get to the trade war and markets. Joining us, the global cio at Credit Suisse. Fact they are using the proposal as a benchmark to benchmarks, does that worry you or make you optimistic for the end of the year . There is reason to be optimistic. Interlinkage with hong kong is not particularly market friendly, to be honest. I think markets would prefer to see those issues decoupled. Thet has been priced into deal being made and there may be uncertainty that gives back some return. Nejra room for disappointment but your base case is we do get the phase one trade deal, that deal between the u. S. And china. What in the details of that would want you to put on more risk . December tariffs, a rollback in september tariffs, or more of a rollback in the 250 million . Would bey a pause sufficient. Both parties, especially on the u. S. Side, have an interest in getting this resolved, especially the president. Heading toward an election and it is clear the more uncertainty lingers, the more impact on economic momentum in the u. S. Nejra you stay overweight equities and have a conviction in that tactically over the next three to six months. Does that position remain, even if phase one doesnt get signed . Yes. Nejra why . Because i think we are coming slump thatconomic has been particularly hard, especially on earnings. We see early next year. There is great reason to be prorisk in this environment of incredibly low yields. The fed is still quite supportive, not really on the horizon for further cuts but also not for rates to go up on the short end and that keeps us optimistic for equities. Nejra michael scrollback from Credit Suisse stays with us. Next, lots coming up including headtohead with over three weeks until the u. K. Election, Party Leaders clash in the third debate. We will discuss who came out on top. Plus, home depot disappoints. We will focus on retail developments and what it means for the u. S. Economy, next. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get the business flash with Viviana Hurtado. Is replacing its Investment Banking chief according to the financial times. Him move to a nonexecutive role, part of a series of management changes. More could be announced later this year. More than 23 million times, thats how many Times West Bank has been accused of breaching Money Laundering laws, the biggest breach in laundering and Terrorism Financing laws in australias history. They say they recognize the severity of the issue. The u. S. Is investigating if swedbank breached sanctions against russia according to a swedish broadcaster. Transactions after the u. S. Imposed sanctions on russia following the annexation of crimea. Swedbank says it hasnt found any signs in breach sanctions. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra just over three weeks until the winter election in u. K. And Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn faced each other. Effectively tied in a snap poll on which candidate won the clash. They went ahead headtohead on brexit and spending plans. We have a deal that is of an ready. It is ready to go and it is approved not just by our partners in the eu, but by everyone of the 635 conservative and delivers everything we wanted from brexit. We will in three months negotiate a credible leave option with the European Union and within six months come up with that to a referendum of the british people to decide between the option of leaving while protecting jobs and trade and the good friday agreement with europe or remaining members of the European Union. That will be the choice put before the british people. I have been very clear about the deal i have done. It is in black and white. You can read it. We dont know what mr. Corbyn is with thet come clean electorate about what he is proposing to do, nor will he allow mr. Corbyn to respond to you. What i would probably leave under the tree to him would be a Christmas Carol by charles dickens. [laughter] a literary effort, probably my brilliant brexit deal. Nejra lets get more with bloombergs International Government editor and still with us, michael from Credit Suisse. Withh we had some jam te this discussion, but your take was itom last night, for so low expectations corbyn going into the debate or that he focused on a lot of issues other than brexit . The headline poll showed it about split, 67 of people fought Jeremy Corbyn did pretty well thought Jeremy Corbyn did pretty well. Boris johnson is known for his public speaking skills, so expectations on him or higher but if you look at the footage, he frequently interrupted the moderator when she was telling him to finish and he brought everything back to brexit. To the point you could start to hear the groans in the audience becoming audible over that. Jeremy corbyn, obviously trailing in the polls, he has ground to make up but was seen as giving a more polished performance last night, perhaps a more sympathetic performance to the british people when asked about trust of politicians and the controversy with the royal family at the moment. He did better answers on that, so he is showing he is not to be counted out. Nejra this is the first debate. Weve got another one to look forward to on december 6. What else might happen between now and the election that could swing voters . It is clear from the questions last night and audience reaction brexit is one issue to voters in this election, but they will look at red and butter issues, educations, health care, the state of the nhs. That is when they came up last night, funding for that, issues around security and crime and so on. Is a factor when it comes to the ballot box, many will look at what the local member is promising and labor and conservatives are promising in jobs and health care. That is where you can see the debate perhaps moving over the next couple of weeks. Nejra is the market underpricing the risk of a conservative majority upset in the election . Perhaps germany doing a lot better than people expect . That is the real risk Jeremy Corbyn doing a lot better than people expect . That is the real risk. A majority sufficient to bring his deal through, supportive for the pound and markets. If that becomes a skinny majority, we will see some further volatility in the pound, for sure. Butntially in risk assets, i have to say my main scenario is still mr. Johnson sales through this. Im not a political expert on ukip politics, but that has been u. K. Politics, but that has been the scenario. I dont believe in a hard brexit and and the risk of that was overpriced into a pound the pound. We see the pound is undervalued and with good upside. I think if Boris Johnson retakes that majority, we will see that movie the next three to six months. Nejra other than being along the pound, how else would you position going into the auction . Are you doing anything around the gilt markets or buying more u. K. Equities . Domestic u. K. Equities would be an interesting asset class to look at because in the scenario ning, more win steering toward domestic plays in the u. K. Is something we would do. Nejra we heard from the two leaders of labour and conservative yesterday, but there were other parties involved who could upset the result. Libhe performance of the dems, and can they pull votes away . If Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson dont get a majority, who do they need to enlist to work with them in parliament or do you get a Dysfunctional Parliament where nothing can get her . Get through . Who has the votes to govern . Also, the Scottish Party is another one to keep an eye on. Those are the four key ones for possible alliances. Does either party have enough votes on their own initially or do we get involved in that messy horsetrading . Nejra what is your base case after 2020. Holding steady. If we see a majority in parliament that is not hung, they will want to sing what is the economic broader impact on the. On that. Nejra thank you so much. Still to come, bloomberg is cohosting the new Economy Forum in beijing and weve got some great guest. Prudential ceo mike wells joins us at 9 00 tomorrow morning. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg surveillance. Raise 11y be set to billion in its Mega Hong Kong stock offering. The company is telling investors it will likely price shares at 176 hong kong dollars each according to bloomberg sources. Joining us, bloombergs reporter in hong kong. Great to speak with you. Talk to us about the timing of why alibaba is doing this now. Julia well, it is certainly an interesting timing given what is going on in hong kong and protests have escalated, but in a way, it is quite a good time as good a timing as any for alibaba. They logged a new record for the single shopping day bonanza. It is good to start a large offering with and the companys wellknown by investors and liked by investors. They dont need to do too much marketing. It achieves the companys longterm ambition of listing close to home and giving chinese investors a way to hold one of the chinese tech darlings. Backdrop,e political it is still a good time for alibaba to raise the money. It shows the company is strong and doesnt need the cash, the cash will help it fight its many battles with tencent in Cloud Computing or online food delivery. It could thats what do with the money, and weve also covered the fact that it would bring alibaba closer to home, but what would the listing mean for hong kong . Julia well, it is great success, the fact a company would do such a large listing and successfully conduct it a time protests are going on, they are turning quite violent. This is a sign hong kong is still open for business and is a viable listing venue. It would also propel it to being the Number One Exchange in fundraising globally. It had that title last year and alibabas listing now today would put hong kong back at the top spot again, at least for the time being. Nejra bloombergs reporter in hong kong, thank you. Next, home depot disappoints, kohls shares disappoint. We will talk retail shares. This is bloomberg. Nejra power to the people. The u. S. Senate passes a bill supporting protesters in hong kong. Beijing threatens retaliation if it becomes law. Headtohead with just over three weeks before the election, Party Leaders clash in their first tv debate. Its not poll because i do draw. Alibaba a snap poll calls it a draw. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am nejra cehic and london. Lets check whats moving in the stock market. We have a down day overall, but some interesting stock movers, annmarie hordern. An all reporting obligations were filed properly and they are rejecting a claim in a german newspaper saying earnst young could not approve the Financial Statement in singapore. We will keep an eye on that stock throughout the day. Kingfisher is a loser this morning, down more than 6 . Like for like sales missed estimates, trading in the Third Quarter disappointing. Nexi spa, an italian newspaper is saying nexi is looking at a share deal. Word lets get the first news with Viviana Hurtado in new york. Firsta in the u. K. , the Election Debate looks to be a draw. With borisyn tied johnson in snap polls. They clashed under the National Health service and brexit and what they we get each other for christmas. Corbyn saying he would give johnson a novel of the and the u. S. Ol, warningassed a bill, beijing against violence impressing violently suppressing the unrest in hong kong. If the bill becomes law, china vowing, threatening to retaliate. Fed minutes out today will likely reinforce the message rates are on hold. Jerome powell addressing congress twice last week, saying the economy is any good plays place provided there is not a material reassessment of the outlook. That will be the key thing for the minutes, exactly what that phrase really means. Saudi aramco seeing sufficient early demands for its ipo. That is three days after a deal. Thanks behind the offering are signaling they have nearly enough orders to cover the institutional aramco has two weeks of marketing to go, declining to comment. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over im vivianaes, hurtado. This is bloomberg. Nejra . Nejra home depot and pulls posted this up in pulls posted disappointing numbers. American consumers could keep up robust spending as the holidays approach. Strobaekh us, michael from Credit Suisse. How robust is the u. S. Consumer . Michael if you look over 1015 years, Cons