Bright spots. Exports declined less than domestic but weak demand continues to bite. Joining us from hong kong is in karenrrent is in the is enda curran. Is pickingps demand up, and might put a floor on the economy into year end. There was a weaker import, and that underlines that the domestic demand is still weak. We know that new orders of the official manufacturing pmi remain weak as well come us adjusting that bottoming out still has a little bit to go before we can fully call it stabilization in chinas economy. The trade numbers were ok. There were certainly some optimism, but the big picture remains whether the government can push ahead and reach this phase i agreement theyve been talking about. Alix speaking of, the conversation has been to digitally that the phase i deal will happen in a rollback. The ministry of commerce spokesman in china saying that there have been serious discussions, and agreed to remove the tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement. What is the real conversation on the ground . Enda clearly this was a redline for china. Theyve been demanding that they wanted tariffs rolled back on goods. All indications are that both sides do seem to be heading for some Common Ground on this. We had the white house suggesting overnight they agree with the principle of rolling back tariffs. The big question is when they will agree that these tariffs should be rolled back or removed. We are not yet at the point where a final deal has been agreed, so we dont know the final details. It will be crucial to see where the two sides can meet in the middle and at which point they can roll back tariffs on each others goods. That is a critical detail that needs to be ironed out. Alix thank you so much for joining us. We now want to head to brussels, where euro area finance ministers are meeting to discuss the banking union, economic outlook, and the ecb board. Maria tadeo joins us. A lot of topics on the table. What so far has been the biggest take away . Theres many calls right now in europe to get germany to get spending. The European Commission cut its growth forecast. They see the country in a technical recession. We are seeing more European Space to that have spend or need to grow their economy should do it now, but obviously a clear reference to germany. When you speak to the german finance minister, he is sticking to the script. He says there is no need to deploy major funds now because germany does believe the fundamentals remain strong. They have a very strong labor market, and they point out external factors. They say our model is not flawed, and we have not become too dependent on china. This is all to do with trade tensions. The minute they go away, we will see germany move back from negative headlines and pickup growth. The export data that came out for september does back his point to a certain extent. We saw exports pickup for the month of september. The bigger question now, but the europeans are really keeping an eye on, is whether President Trump is going ahead or not with those tariffs at the end of the month on european carmakers. That would really hit germany. The last we heard from Jeanclaude Juncker, head of the European Commission, is that he believes trump will not enact those tariffs on european cars. Alix thank you. Now we want to turn to disney. Shares rising in premarket after orderly profits top estimates. Theyve also agreed to put their new streaming service on amazon devices, ensuring more access to online viewers at next weeks launch. We are pleased to announce additional distribution partnerships with amazon fire, samsung, and lg. Disney will also be available in a bundle with espn and 12. 99 ated hulu for month. Alix what were some of your take away from the quarter, the good and the bad . Reporter this is company firing on all cylinders. Even the broadcast unit. Weirdly, we are looking at a really strong final period of the year as theyve got frozen coming out. Wars disney lunches next week in the u. S. We also heard that the service will come to europe 31 march next year. An, the star wars spinoff, has really got people excited. The question is the impact this will have on netflix. Most analysts think there is enough room for both of these platforms to grow over the next three to five years, but i think 20 20 is going to be a really interesting year to see how much impact not just disney , but yes pin but espn and the hulu services have. It is going to be a really disruptive Time Next Year for netflix in the streaming market. Alix thank you very much. We want to stay in london because alibaba is moving ahead with plans to raise as much is 15 billion in a hong kong shares sale ahead of the companys most import sales event of the year, singles day. Joining me is alex webb. What was your take on a potential listing in hong kong despite the recent protests in the weaker Global Economy . Alex there really is some relief for hong kong. This is a sale which has been in the works for a long time. The initial target was it would happen over the summer, and reporting from sources was they are targeting a 15 billion listing in hong kong to raise more capital. That would represent the biggest listing of the year so far, before we know what happens with saudi aramco, and the exact timing of that. The timing of the news the listing itself comes just ahead of singles day, november 11. This is an informal holiday celebrating singledom in china, which has been sort of coopted over the past decade by alibaba to replicate the effect of black friday in the u. S. , defined a peak event where you can sell a huge amount of merchandise and Retail Products online. About 30 billion Gross Revenue last year. The question is, with chinas slowing growth, whether that pace can be maintained this year. Either way, it provides a lot of heat for alibaba as it moves toward that listing. Alix finally, in the u. S. , risk assets are really losing their luster. The 10 year treasury yield spiked nine basis points yesterday, a huge move. Joining me on the phone for more is ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. Are we oversold in the treasury market . Ira very short term, perhaps, when you look at the technical indicators. But we have fair value at about two point 1 , so there is the likelihood could see a bit more of a backup to over 2 . I still think there is this underlying fear that the economy is still fragile, so at some point you will probably see some buying and probably making a new range. When you think about whats happened to the treasury market this year, you had very distinct ranges for two or three months, and then big moves into some kind of new range. Alix when it comes to the curve , where is the path of least resistance . Next 0. 5 ast for the or so on 10 year yields, directional with rates. As we move higher in 10 year treasury yields, you will likely see the curve steepen. You will wind up getting to the 30, 35 area may be on the twoyear tenure on the twoyear10 year. I think we will probably cap there in terms of yields. If we do, you will wind up seeing a little more of a flattening trade as yields go up. Alix really appreciate it. Ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. Something else i am watching every day is the potential saudi aramco ipo. Crown Prince Mohammed bin salman is said to have lowered his valuation target for aramco, but some of the worlds biggest investors say that is not actually enough. The prince reportedly now is willing to accept a 1. 7 trillion valuation, down from 2 trillion. Some believe it is worth less. Part of the issue, if we take a look at where yields are, it is hard to entice investors with very big yields. Point 6 trillion valuation, saudi remco would still just beat that redline of 4. 7 . We are now hearing rumors it will go up to maybe 80 billion a year or 100 billion a year plus. Program, muchhis more of your morning trade and analysis of the markets in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for bloomberg first take. Joining me from our inhouse team of wall street insiders. Xperts, Damian Sassower are you credit or equity . Credit . Of the cignarella bloomberg audio squawk. Also joining us is sarah hunt, Alpine Woods Capital investors Portfolio Manager. Kudlow basically says if everything works, we are going back to tariffs. We had that huge move yesterday in equities and bonds area events, the trade for you this morning and bonds. Vents, the trade for you this morning . Vincent maybe theres a trade deal, maybe there isnt a trade deal. Is real deal on the street the end of the trade war, not the trade deal. We dont care what the deal is. I dont care if its 18 billion of agriculture. I dont care what it is. Take the uncertainty off the table. We could go into 2020 and a bit of a calm. Capex spending comes back, the economy gets lifted. This is what trump needs to rally his base to put him in a position to it least hope to win the election. I think treasuries are definitely going to go to 2 . We got a sentiment indicator out at 10 00. Sarah i have to say i agree. People just want it over with. No matter what the phase is, as long as we get rid of some of , it isariffs eventually going to be better. What i am worried about his last summer, where everybody was ready for a signed deal and it completely fell apart. I think it is more important to get something done because you are running into an Election Year whereas this summer, you werent. Certainly the market is pricing in the fact that we are on our way to solving this problem, and once it gets solved, you can Start Talking about other things. Damian as much as there are carafate as much terra phases as phases of the moon there are as much tariff phases as phases of the moon. [laughter] that . do you like what really speaks to me is esports to the southeast that shes exports to the Southeast Asian region is exports to the Southeast Asian region picking up. To the em index yesterday. Youve got some other ring shoots coming up. Pmi data has been relatively resilient across the whole of em. Things are looking a little rosier this morning. I think that while we may see 2 in 10 years, at 1. 90 it is getting kind of interesting. But you move yesterday alone 17 trillion in negative debt to 12 point 5 trillion in essentially a week. Theres a great deal of momentum behind this. I wouldnt stand in the way of it. I think it goes to 2. 25 at the end of the day if this followthrough. What we are looking at right now if you think about it is very interesting. You talk about russia influencing election. Man int powerful the world right now is hesident xi because controls the most powerful man in the world, President Trump. Hes doing this Regional Economic comprehensive partnership in southeast asia, which is going to capture 1 3 of the global gdp for china exports. These making great strides. Hes in a very strong position, and the united states, navarro notwithstanding, they need to do this deal. Whatever it is, i think it is going to get done because they dont have a choice. Damian we saw moodys downgrain their outlook overnight. A littled s p are behind the eight ball, but it is interesting if you look at the response. The want is up for ash the yuan the yuan is up through seven. Vincent theres the geopolitical situation, so that comes into play as well. Alix you heard them debate the fx and rate point, but if you come to the market today, the question for me is are we priced for perfection now, or is there more upside to go . Do we have the vulnerability now have a tweet . Where is President Trump . I havent seen his deal saying weve got a deal done. Vincent because we dont. Sarah the pendulum always swings a little too far. Can you go further up . Sure. The question is what happens afterward. We are partially negative. When you look at where the market is, the multiple is are just expanding again is everyone is thinking we are getting these terrible risks author table. So what happens the next 12 to 24 months . Just because you take some of these risks off the table, you havent priced that in to what can be earned in this. Youre looking at the fed cutting rates when the market is making new highs. The enthusiasm in the equity markets is largely because we just had 17 trillion worth of negative yielding debt, and now we are moving up further, but fixed income is not a robust place to be. To the are vulnerable fact that once you get through. Ll of this do they start to back off a little bit . Does the fed say maybe things are good enough that we dont have to keep going, and then those questions start to become a what is going to drive you to the next leg . Alix we have french 10 year yields over zero. Thats huge. 05 , we made it. Sarah mind blowing. Alix but what was kind of overlooked ivy china stuff, Jeanclaude Juncker giving an interview in europe said that there will not be any automobile tariffs. He wont do it. You are talking to a fully informed man. [laughter] alix first of all, thats probably the best sentence i ever heard. Is the strong arm angle. It is a material difference. Vincent i think juncker is lest informed that he really believed. Alix hes a fully informed man. [laughter] vincent hes not really taken seriously on the street, to be honest, sorry to say. Hes probably a lovely guy, but hes not in a position of power. Hes in a position of being potentially informed, but he doesnt make any decisions. I think hes kind of going out on a limb here. If there is a problem with this deal with xi, whatever way it breaks down with china, i think trump is going to need a diversion, and the easiest is to go after europe. The best thing that could happen for germany is that this deal gets done with china. Otherwise, for nothing less than a distraction, i think the president will turn to europe. Damian the dollar has appreciated relative to most of the g10 crosses, but relative to senate look at the the sentiment indicators, my goodness, we are two to three standard deviations below the whole of the em complex. Yields toigh nominal try to take on some of that carry, but do it on a hedge basis. Your kind of basically taking more risk there. Look at the tangential evidence of growth positioning and long equity funds coming up, people are punting it to the end of the year. Need to see these benchmarks, which are all up double to its. Youre going to see a little more of that. We have risks coming at the end of the year with the fed plummeting with the fed plumbing. Sarah we also just saw a switch. That was pretty fast, and youre talking about changes in data. Hat werent so huge i think theres a lot of very shortterm big swings. Just look at Interest Rates. We dont see Interest Rates move that fast, generally. That was a huge sentiment shift. Theres a number of events we cannot plan for. Alix enough said, and we will leave it there. Moves, whatever. [laughter] alix sarah hunt of alpine woods, youre sticking with me. A reminder, all the charts we use and more throughout the program, no to gtv on your terminal. Browse the features, check it out. This is bloomberg this is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. It will be hong kongs biggest first timeshare offering since 2010. To 15 hopes to raise up billion in ashares sale in the city. Next week carol next week there will be a listing in hong kong. No deal is too big for blackstones real estate investors. Since june, blackstone has done two deals worth almost when he 5 billion. Cohead of real estate almost 25 billion. He cohead of real estate telling berg what she looks for telling bloomberg what she looks for. We look at what can drive performance, the quality of the transaction is not measured or limited by size. Viviana blackstones play on ecommerce has shifted to smaller spaces in cities, what customers such as amazon want. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. Robin am watching, too, hood markets getting some unwanted scrutiny in washington. It seems some of its customers took advantage of a flaw in the system that allows them to make highly leveraged trades without putting down enough cash to back the transaction, like putting down 4000 to get about 1 million. That triggered losses of less than 100,000 and some questions from regulators. Coming up, much more about china data, as well as the regional trade and what it means for a trade deal with the u. S. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. Crazy four days in the market. S p futures are up, pretty much flat, though. We had a nice risk on rally, a rotation into value, rotation into cyclicals, and now taking a little bit of a pause. Even european automakers going nowhere even though juncker said the u. S. Wont put on trade tariffs. Other Asset Classes a similar story. Year,is points in the 10 1. 94 . Lets go to china now, because that is really also helping the lake markets. Data paints a somewhat better picture. , exportsok at exports declined less than expected in october amid rising optimism a trade deal with the u. S. Could happen. The picture is getting a bit. Righter top negotiators had serious constructive discussions and agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement. Joining me now is alex wolf, jp morgan head of Investment Strategy for asia, and still with me as sarah hunt of Alpine Woods Capital investors. Which is it . Do we get a trade deal and things are going to be ok, or is there still regional weakness in asia . Alex there is definitely still regional weakness. It looks like global external demand might be troughing, might be on the path to improving. The import data shows domestic demand in data is still very weak. Its contracted for six months in a row. That is important because thats how the Global Economy feels chinese growth is weak. Understand that is regional trade weakness versus a growth issue . How do you read that . Alex that is chinese specific weakness. Chinese import demand has been exceptionally week. I think a lot of things get blamed on trade. Most things get blamed on trade and geopolitics. Sarah does part of that have to do with the fact that some companys have made decisions to say th