Real threat is it joe biden or Elizabeth Warren or even impeachment, its recession. Carol and 2020 will bring about the great antitrust reawakening. The question is not whether to break up companies but how the laws are enforced. Kailey much more ahead. We begin with joel weber. Start of a new decade, what are the big things we needed to be watching . You hit a couple. Recession is one thing everyone is really aware of. It has huge implications, not only for the presidency, but the economy as a whole. We give a survey of the World Outlook as a whole. 2 growth is what has been a projected but theres always a chance of it being revised downward. It comes down to the u. S. Consumer. In many ways, the Global Economy is on the back of the u. S. Consumer. Carol from the economy to elections. And the u. S. Is not the only place where there will be elections. That is an expected story. We can say elections, thats going to be a choppy sea. Another place that will take up bandwidth is the antitrust conversation. This will dominate d. C. In a way that harkens back to the 90s and the last time antitrust dominated news. We think this might have different takeaways than it did in that 90s where ultimately nothing significant happened. We think there are more serious things that could happen. Kailey that could be a big implication for the markets when it comes to these big tech names. We basically tried to take antitrust as a theme and look at it from every possible way you can. From how Elizabeth Warren can break things up to the players you need to know about to going back and looking at case studies of how the laws could be enforced. Carol it is a mustread. If you want to understand the players, issues, and the law. The other mustread is 50 companies to watch we start with 2000 companies that bloomberg evaluates and filter it down the companies that they are bearish on and bullish on. We are not making calls, but they are ones we feel will be interesting and everyone should keep in mind. Carol what i love is if you go online. Get the magazine, and read all about the companies, but if you can go online you can play with the list. The sorting ability is neat. You can find out companies that excel at women being on board. Carol for a look at the year ahead in politics, lets turn to josh green who joins us from our washington bureau. Lets talk about it. What is it President Trump needs to be worried about . He needs to worry about the fact that the economy, by most forecasts, is trending in the wrong direction. In particular, manufacturing is in a recession. That is key in the group of swing states in the upper midwest that will probably decide the next election. Kailey the demographics and geographics are all important here. Is it too late for him to change the game . Are we too far gone . I dont think so, necessarily. I break this into two lanes. When you look at what trump promised during his first year, he promised even 6 growth across the economy and that is not going to happen. On the other hand, he has had positives. Unemployment is at a 50 year low. The stock market is treading water near alltime highs. And he has managed to keep republican sentiment behind him even as he faces a slowing economy and impeachment. The big unknown is what are the effects of the trade war Going Forward . We have seen them by it into growth and the economy in states trump needs to win. However, theres still time to strike a modest trade deal. If you were to do that, it would turn sentiment around. That would certainly benefit his reelection choices. Carol what i love is that you break it down into kind of what happened after he came in to the white house and you did see manufacturing jobs coming back. That was a lot of momentum and the tax cuts had an impact. In the last year or so, you have seen that shift. And as you say, in the key states he won, it has gotten tougher in terms of manufacturing jobs. If you go back and look at his term from a macro level, trump delivered. He had the stock market up, manufacturing growing. Jamie dimon said trump had succeeded in unleashing animal spirits. The problem is that all of that has stalled out. In large part due to the trade war that he started. Animal spirits have gone away, companies are not investing. We are now in a manufacturing recession. That has hurt states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, where recent polls show all of the Top Democrats beating trump in a headtohead matchup. That is a flashing red warning signal as he looks ahead to the election. But again, there are bright spots. He still has time to turn the ship around and pull another upset. Kailey lets talk about polling and where voters stand. Trumps approval has been remarkably consistent. 5256 disapproval, that has been true throughout everything. Through the Mueller Investigation and now the impeachment drama. Most importantly, he has managed to keep Republican Voters pretty much behind him. He has a solid 90 approval rating. As of now, they are not abandoning him. As we saw in 2016, the Electoral College favors a republican candidate. There are areas he has to worry. He has lost enormous amounts of support from noncollege white women which were instrumental in 2016. He is driving away voters in the suburbs. But he has brought new people into the political process. His campaign believes he can excite voters who do not usually vote and like what he stands for. It will be a test of whether he can turn out enough Republican Voters to overcome what is undoubtedly a blue wave of democrats. Carol with everything going on globally and in the u. S. , we have seen this in past elections. It is ultimately about the economy and how everybody feels. It really is. If you look at the three president s in the 20th century who lost reelection races, all of them were running in a recession. It cost them the election. Trump is not there yet, but all forecasts show things trending in a bad direction. Carol josh green, thank you. More on that coming up. Also, the stock market has a lot riding on the elections. Kailey but one thing could stand in the way of a recession, your shopping habits. This is Bloomberg Businessweek. Kailey welcome back to Bloomberg Businessweek. Carol join us every day on the radio starting at 2 p. M. Wall street time. You can also catch up on our daily show by listening to our podcast on apple podcast, soundcloud, and bloomberg. Com. Kailey and find us online and on our mobile app. Carol for better or worse markets have become entwined with american politics ever since the 2016 residential president ial campaign. Kailey that shows no signs of changing in 2020. It is an awkward position investors have been thrust into. Now they have to have a sideline as a political scientist and gauge where the politics world are headed. It is turning into a market of its own. There are these prediction sites where you can track where the betting community believes the horse race lies in politics. Carol tell us about a strategist you visited. You start off your story with that. Its funny, a woman at rbc wrote how she looks at these political polling charts almost like stock charts. She is looking at Elizabeth Warren as a momentum stock. She said she has really rising in the polls. She said she would advise shorting joe biden. But just because he is waning in momentum. What is fascinating is that so much is at stake with politics right now. Obviously, when President Trump was elected, politics ruled everything in Global Markets ever since. But now some of these Democratic Candidates have platforms that threaten to upend a lot of the Main Industries in the u. S. Carol medicare for all will have implications. Absolutely. Thats why Elizabeth Warrens ascent in the polls has people scrambling to decipher what it could mean as her plans are all over the place. They are so broad reaching that you have to figure out her priorities and what will she be able to accomplish. A lot depends on what congress looks like. But a hypothetical Elizabeth Warren presidency has wall street scrambling to figure out all of the ripple effects. As you said, medicare for all have major implications for the healthcare sector. She also wants to raise the minimum wage which would pressure margins at companies but also provide more spending in the economy. Carol i think it used to be it was thought that if there was a democrat, it was not good for business. If there was a republican, it was. Markets would play off of that. But in recent years, we have not seen that. Tell me what happens if it is a democrat versus republican, is it all good or there are so many different variables. Is it a democrat with a full Democratic Senate . There are so many different scenarios. I dont put a lot of faith in any of them because they are so unique and the candidates and the economic environments are unique. We have gotten into uncharted territory with President Trump doing stuff that no president has done before. Aggressively hitting china with tariffs, threatening them elsewhere. He broke what i think would be the paradigm of the past. You have to just play cards on the table now. Carol one factor standing between the u. S. And a downturn is consumer spending. It makes up almost 70 of the economy, higher than almost any other country. Kailey while shoppers have been crucial for growth that is particularly the case now as we look ahead to next year. Here is matt townsend. The u. S. Economy has always relied on consumer spending. One interesting stat is 70 of the economy is u. S. Spending that is consumer spending, in china, it is 40 . That shows you how different it is. Consumerrely on the even more right now. The economy is technically in contraction right now, cutting jobs with less output. The u. S. Consumer is what is propping up the economy. Kailey is the consumer feeling good to this point . They are, and thats one counterintuitive aspect of the story. Broadly, economists at big banks like Morgan Stanley do not see recession coming next year. The few bears on the case that sort of see one coming, they are pointing to job loss and slowing spending. But broadly speaking, economists do not see a recession coming because the consumer is so strong. Carol you go through a lot of Economic Data points. Consumers are optimistic, right . Consumer confidence is at relatively high levels. Since before the recession. Carol its remarkable considering how long the expansion has gone on. Longest on record, and yet they are still optimistic. The data is showing more wage gains coming. If you look at a stat on job openings, its over 7 million jobs open right now. That means theres a big demand for labor all across the economy. People are able to negotiate raises or leave for better jobs. That is raising wages, lifting up the economic fortunes of america. As long as thats happening, its hard to see how this changes. Carol how do you get recession if youve got that going on . Exactly. Cracks in the armor, so to speak is housing. Housing is going up. Think about what that means. You are buying furniture, hiring contractors, and that is going down. Home prices are decelerating. Carol is it because of a lack of demand . It depends on the market. In sum, in new york, for example, the concern is too much supply. Kailey and you have more and more people renting rather than buying. Exactly. And things like healthcare costs, if those keep going up. If there is some sort of repeal of obamacare and people have to pay more out of pocket. Think about the people on obamacare on low income, that could stretch their wallets. And then job growth, while still positive, it has slowed down. If you are a bear on the u. S. Consumer, you see that continuing to slow down. Maybe the effects of the trade war, uncertainty about the economy freezes hiring and job growth slows. That could create a cycle of people worried about the economy and cutting back on investment spending. Kailey can the 737 max 8 regain altitude . Carol and what happens when the plane is cleared to return to the sky . Kailey this is Bloomberg Businessweek. Carol welcome back to Bloomberg Businessweek. Kailey you can also listen to us on the radio on sirius xm channel 119, and on a. M. 1130 in new york, 106. 1 in boston, 99. 1 f. M. In washington, d. C. Carol a. M. 960 in the bay area, also over in london on dab digital, and through the Bloomberg Business app. Kailey boeing reported earnings and the company is confident the 737 max 8 will be cleared to fly this year. Carol while thats good news for carriers, the question remains if travelers will be nervous about flying an airplane involved into fatal crashes. We have our reporter from dallas on what is to come or boeing. Was grounded for most of the years following two fatal accidents that killed 346 people. Airlines are not taking this. No regulator is letting it in their space. It has been a tough year for boeing. Kailey it is not just the fact they need to get planes back in the air, it is that they need to get travelers willing to go back, right . Right. Customers really need to face up to how much fear there is about the airplane. The old saying is that the safest airplane is the one with the most attention, but a lot of the public does not Pay Attention to what they are flying. But in this case, they might. There is good evidence people will be cognizant of what they are flying and want to know if it is a max. If its not, they probably dont care. But if it is, what to airlines have to do to get those people comfortable . Carol lets talk about what they are doing. They are going to lay it out. If you make a reservation, they will let you know if you are flying one of these. Yeah. The three u. S. Airlines that have it, southwest, american and united all say that they are going to be very transparent in this process and want everybody to know up front when you are buying tickets. The idea is practical because they dont want people getting on the plane and then having a freak out incident on the aircraft with the crew, social media, etc. It makes more sense to separate those folks early as possible, even if at the airport at check in. They will let you book without penalty to go on another aircraft if you are not comfortable. We dont know how long that will last. They have been hesitant to disclose how long that policy will last. But for several months, it will be the case where you are allowed to rebook. Kailey how much of a burden to the airlines have to bear in restoring confidence or is that mostly boeings prerogative . It is a shared responsibility. But once the governments say this airplane can fly, the airlines are eager to get back into service for financial reasons, and it becomes an Airline Issue because they are dealing with their own customers and their fears, concerns, and questions. Boeing will be involved in doing what airlines ask, but at that point, it becomes an airlinecentered issue. That is probably where we will see the most outreach. Carol from the global skies to the supply chain. Kailey here is austin carr about what chipmakers tell us about the undoing of the great semiconductor supply chain. The crazy thing is you dont realize how embedded in the market is every single device we use, whether it is windows pcs or all the teeny parts that control memory and processing speed. They come from a global set of partners mostly in asia, yet they power so much of what we have here in the u. S. So the big thing we are focusing on is whether or not there will be this great unwinding for a market headed towards more interconnectedness that now might be pulled apart. Kailey so they are in everything, but they are not made everywhere. Can you map that out . Totally. One thing we highlight is this big ip lawsuit between global foundries, which is a Semi Conductor foundry kailey these guys are always doing something. Theres arguments about the legitimacy of the lawsuits. But what they are highlighting, and finding reception on, is not just the corporate consolidation but regional. The company they are suing, tsmc, based in taiwan, they own about 70 of outsourced chip production. That is massive. Global foundries says for the more advanced chips its Something Like more than 90 of the share. So they are playing up the geopolitical concerns. How concerned should we be that our iphones could not run if we got cut off from the market. They kept referring to the company as being from greater china, but they want to play into those geopolitical fears. Carol we have seen that play out, right . Semi conductors have been a volatile sector for the duration of this trade war. Every trade headline, Semi Conductors are so vulnerable. The conversation is how to get supply chains out of china. Can they really do that that quickly . Its complicated. One analyst we talked to said the Immediate Impact would be nearly one third of manufacturing would move out of china to places like vietnam, india, taiwan, elsewhere. Which is a compelling, massive shift. The downside is that normally takes a couple quarters, if not years, to relocate. It also means supply chain and component cost will go up quite materially, which has an impact on customers. This holiday season, you might not see prices raised, but enough might see but you might see fewer discounts. Some companies are having to find their own suppliers or create new supply chains, huawei being a major example. Thats because of these sort of corporate black lists that some people argue have been weaponized to a degree. Kailey coming up, will big tech survive antitrust . Carol more from this weeks issue. This is Bloomberg Businessweek. Carol welcome back to Bloomberg Businessweek. Im carol massar. Kailey and im kailey leinz. Still ahead, the year ahead will be a big one for elon musk in his quiet courtship of