A lobbying campaign in the u. S. And canada to pass the trade deal. Turkey is offering us earns is that its forces in Northern Syria have Islamic State fighters in the area under their control. Defense secretary mark esper says his turkish counterpart provided information during a meeting of nato defense officials. But the secretary says the turks need to do more. We call on turkey to abide by their commitment to address the humanitarian crisis, to protect religious and ethnic minorities, to investigate allegations of war crimes, and maintain control of isis prisoners. The allies remained unified in our efforts to preserve the defeat of isis and we must Work Together to make sure they are unable to reconstitute. The u. S. Envoy on the u. S. Conflict has more and more than 100 Islamic State militants have escaped from prisons in Northern Syria. President trump says most have been recaptured. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. A live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im scarlet fu. Amanda im amanda lang in toronto. Joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. This sunday, argentines will head to the polls to elect a new leader. Alberto fernandez is on the brink of winning power, so why are investors so terrified . Amazon suffered its first profit decline in more than two years as it moves to oneday shipping and battles its lowest ever growth rate for its Cloud Business. California has declared a state of emergency in sonoma and los angeles counties, as the kincade fire ranges. Lets get a quick check on the major averages as we head into afternoon trading. We are looking at the s p 500 ending the week with gains. Robert lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin released a statement saying the u. S. Is closer to finishing phase one of the trade deal, giving investors a reason to bed up share prices. Although they have stalled out, we are looking at gains in materials and technology. Intel is the best performer in the dow industrials, giving an update profit and sales forecast, shrugging off of those trade war concerns. We will be talking with reporters later on to discuss the state of brexit. There is the chart that i want to highlight. Because you are here, we are watching the loonie. Amanda hitting key levels last week. We are still waiting for the bank of canada. We also have an election with parliament. It is interesting to see the currency. We already saw weakness priced in. Speaking of, amazon trading off the lows of the session, possibly because we had decent news on the trade file. Here is a look at the profit declines we are seeing for amazon. Company had coached investors that it will see a loss. Its been giving profit and growing it. Now not only is it saying the 1. 5 billion it is investing in high speed delivery will cost it, but also disappointing on the revenue side. Add those together, one thing to watching, jeff bezos is still number one on the ritualist. For most normal people, that is an unimaginable number to lose. Is he losing his number one ranking . Scarlet he is getting close. Bill gates is number two. Os surpassed bill gates on october 2017 and never looked back. All of these details on what he has done, of course, a selfmade billionaire, as are the top 11 on the rich list. Which says something about the capital market. Scarlet and with cheap interest rates. Amanda paul sweeney is with us now on amazon. A bit of disappointment, we are seeing the stock come back. Some enthusiasm around tech today because of the china news. Our people starting to look more closely at the numbers . They did miss on the top and bottom line. Guidance for the next quarter was also disappointing relative to expectations. We saw the stock trade off about 8 in the premarket. Here, we haveing seen this before at amazon. This is a company that can dial of the expenses and then just as quickly dial them down. The question is how much they want to invest in their businesses, fulfillment centers, warehouses. Of course they are spending money on their Cloud Business but investors generally like that because its been a superior growth story, great return on investment. The filing of expenses in the short term. Generally, shareholders have been very forgiving to jeff bezos and the strategy. Scarlet partly because amazon train them that way. This was a narrative that he pushed on the conference call. That since amazon is spending more, it is entering a new phase where it will spend more for a couple of quarters looking ahead . The cfo on the call said this is where we are spending the money, and we think we will continue to spend for the foreseeable future because we think it will drive business longterm. It comes out of the amazon playbook we have seen the last 10 years, and we could be going into a phase where they are in investment mode. Historically, investors use that time as a time to back up and buy more amazon stock. Amanda characterize how this fits in with what we are seeing elsewhere. Ordersmpanies are saying are drying up, inventories are being affected. Do you put that in as a broader economic story . We have seen the Manufacturing Sector in contraction in the u. S. For a couple of quarters, but the consumer has been so strong. That ishe economy, and where amazon really lives. They have some great secular Growth Drivers for their ebusiness, and there are business is the cloud. They really have two main sweet spot. Scarlet paul sweeney, thank you so much. Lets turn to politics. Argentine citizens take to the polls sunday to choose their president. The winner has several challenges ahead including heavy that maturities and the potential for even more inflation, which would worsen the countrys fiscal solvency. Joining us for insight is daniel koerner, managing director at the eurasia group. Good to speak with you. Election toandezs lose . It is a foregone conclusion. Both are unreliable but the result in a primary show that he is very strong because there is an enormous this content with the way the economy is heading, it has gotten worse since august. People do not trust macros anymore and are looking for someone to improve their Economic Conditions but also to take them back to a period where most voters but like the economy was doing better, not necessarily investors. Scarlet the polls are so unreliable amanda in terms of what is happening in the economy, the odds of restructuring of the debt for this country are high, 67 being priced in. Whomever is leader, what is the first order of business to reassure investors . Whomever wins will inherit a difficult situation. As we speak, pressures on the currency continue, the central has been drawing on reserves, keeping some level of stability to help macri. Argentina has no market access, some securities, so i would say they need to send strong signals about what they need to do with the imf, continuing with the current program, how that would change, what they need to do with the debt, and overall, what is the overall plan to deal with the situation where you have fiscal accounts not in order and inflation edging close to 60 . Investors will be looking for those things. But more for a copperhead so plan. Most importantly, whether the next government will continue the reformist market agenda that macri try to implement, or will go back to where we were in 2015. Cristina kirchner looks like she will be the vice president. Scarlet what is the likelihood perhaps that there needs to be two rounds of voting . How much of that is not priced into the markets . Not at all. The primaries in argentina really act as a realtime poll. We got a good indication of where voters are. If everyone is very surprised by the fact that macri manages to force a second round, which means Alberto Fernandez loses some power, we will enter into a very complicated situation. Investors and markets would like it because they feel macri has a shot, but given how strong the expectations are in argentina that fernandez is going to win, i think youll have serious doubts about what happens with the result. I think the country will enter into a serious crisis. Even how bad the economy is, the likelihood of that is low, but there is always a chance. Theda four people on ground that there, there are harsh realities about the economic effects at the moment, runaway inflation, the dollar is a factor, capital controls are having an influence on the overall economy. For the argentine people, how is life like today, how will that impact things . Tomy sense is people want take decisions to improve the economy. Four years, three have been in recession, the economy has stagnated for the past eight years. Performanceonomic has been disappointing for the past 40 years. They are looking for someone that takes action to try and generate growth, lower inflation, improve their economic life. The problem is it doesnt matter who wins. The path ahead looks very difficult. There is a huge risk that not just investors but voters get disappointed, and that is something we are seeing throughout latin america. Scarlet what do we know about fernandez and his foreignpolicy positions, his relations with neighbors, and indeed the u. S. . When he was chief of cap mentor cristina kirchner, he was the more pragmatic member of the administration, moderate leftist, always thinking about having good relations with investors and with the u. S. Today, he is trying to position himself as a new leader of the moderate left, saying that he will have good relations with the u. S. , but in a difficult situation, because he has to have a strong and difficult conversation with the imf. Up has been critical of venezuela but is trying to show some distance. You have a relatively pragmatic individual here, but he will be elected on a platform of trying ,o boost Economic Growth favoring voters and consumers instead of investors and the imf. He will still have to deal with the fact that his running mate is former president kirchner, who has stronger ideas about Foreign Policy in the economy. That will be a difficult relationship to manage. Amanda thank you for your time, daniel kerner. French president Emmanuel Macron is blocking the eus decision to delay brexit for three months. What that means for the brexit timeline. This is bloomberg. Amanda this is bloomberg markets. Im amanda lang in new york. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Boris johnson has called for an election to be held december 12. He says it is the only way to end the brexit nightmare. There are two ways for johnson to get his early election. A simple motion will be two thirds of house of commons members. A second rod would be a vote of noconfidence which could be issued by an Opposition Party or johnson himself. He could campaign on the idea that antibrexit forces have prompted prevent his effort from getting done. An election before brexit is resolved could help the Opposition Labor Party as well. Jeremy corbyn could pounce on the failure to deliver his signature policy, but corbyn currently trails in the polls. So corporate is under pressure from his own party to wait for the brexit woes to get worse. You can see how this becomes a circle that never ends. Amanda brexit very much on the minds of many today. France standing alone in that rejection of a brexit extension hasod president macron instead push for a onemonth delay. The block has given itself until tuesday to make a decision. We go to alex morales from london. Lets begin with the importance of the extension period the uncertainty of this hard exit on the 31st still hangs over the markets. What do we need to hear about finality of what will happen next . Inx if you are a business the u. K. , you want to know as soon as possible. A no deal brexit would be terrible for their operations. They want to know as soon as possible. The eu, on the other hand, wants to know what this extension is for. Johnson is holding this motion for general election on monday, it could be the extension for a general election, but nominally, it deal throughet the the house of commons. Torlet macron is helping Boris Johnson in a way by not having a longer deadline. The rest of the eu wants to get a pushed out, but macron is making it that perhaps members of parliament are under pressure as well and will support whatever johnson is pushing for, which is an election. It seems that way. Boris johnson said he did not want an extension at all. He didnt want an extension. The eu wants to give parliament a threemonth extension that Boris Johnson was forced to request by parliament, but macron seems to be saying, a month or shorter. This puts pressure on the house of commons. Thing, a lot of mps are reluctant to vote for a deal. They want no deal even less than johnsons deal. This may force their hand to swallow the deal on the table. Course, this deal was before parliament already, johnson lost. In terms of what may happen next , if a deal goes back with added pressure here, what has to change to make it more palatable to people who would not support it in the past . Didnt actually lose it is a complicated situation. A vote in parliament that said we wanted to debate the bill more, but he lost the vote on the very tight timetables he wanted to set for that debate. Mps said it is such an important piece of legislation, we want a longer debate. The bill was given by parliament to go to its next stage. With johnson has to agree the opposition on a suitable timetable for that to take place. It seems like they are in a bit of a standoff. Scarlet is labor offering up anything . Everybody is saying no to what they dont want, but has labor offered a solution, strategy . Except the fact that this bill has been approved to get to the next stage boris wanted to give the house of commons three days to debate. Needed jeremy corbyn, met with Boris Johnson, and said if you give us six days in the house of commons, we can have the debate. Labor is proposing a way forward. It does not seem likely labor will actually vote for the deal but there are enough rebels who may be tempted by the deal that it could get through. Show thatust goes to labor is just as divided as the conservatives. Thank you to alex morales. Coming up, wildfires are ravaging California Wine country, and some think the bankrupt utility pg e is not reacting well, driving that stock to the lowest since 2012. This is bloomberg. Scarlet pg e debt is one of the biggest decline is in the bond market. Investors. The bankruptcy till it is mark agreement could be implicated in the kincade fire burning north of san francisco. For more on the wildfires and what is ahead for the bankrate tillie, lets bring in claire boston. We should start with the fact that california has declared orangecy in sonoma and county. Was it in the midst of this they grab say when the latest happened . Pg e filed in january. When you are talking about a bankruptcy of this size, it takes a while. It was not like it was about to exit and we had a step back. This could make the bankruptcy last longer, and that is the fear you are seeing in the market. Concern the equities could go to zero if there are more wildfire claims. Bondholders are also concerned that restructuring will happen in a different way. Amanda i was interested to see some out year bonds, some longterm optimism, because at the end of the day there will be a state backstop. It is not behaving like a private company restructuring. This utility has to survive in some way or form. This is a unique scenario, not like a typical retailer. Claims fromted to the previous fires in 2017, 2018. There is a state backstop. There is a lot of talk about whether there will be a bondholder plan or more of an equity option. Right now people are thinking that if there are more fire claims, that gives creditors a leg up over the equity holders. Scarlet is there any insurance that pg e cant cap . Can tap . There is wildfire insurance tied to the state of california. But the question is, these fires are so bad, is it going to be enough . Basically the answer is no, which is why they had to file. Amanda they also need capital inclusion. One of the plans includes 14 billion. They need money to fix their infrastructure. Ofthere is going to be a lot contentious questions about what this will look like. One big concern with the fire is it looks like it could have been caused because they needed to do these repairs. A line fell and then the fires shorted started shortly thereafter. Scarlet thank you for being here, claire boston. Just a reminder, users can interact with the charts using gtv. Catch up on key analysis, save charts for future use for reference. This is bloomberg. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. At the funeral, Elijah Cummings was remembered today as a fierce champion of truth, justice, and kindness. Former president barack obama was among those delivering elegies. Man ofah cummings was a noble and good heart. Parents and his faith planted the seeds of hope and love and compassion and righteousness in that good soil of his. Mark former secretary of state Hillary Clinton told mourners it is no coincidence Elijah Cummings shared the name with the Old Testament prophet. She continued, like the prophet, our allergic could call them fire from heaven but also worked in pray for healing