Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 20240713

Holding this up is primarily the defensives in the utility sector, some consumer staples. Mcdonalds providing a little bit of a drag. Take a look at what is happening in the treasury market. Bond bulls undeterred. A lot of folks said this is going to be a dip buying opportunity, and that is what you are seeing. A lot of uncertainty that had driven the bond rally prior to that selloff, brexit, u. S china trade, those have not been resolved, but you will see the bond bulls remain active in this market. We saw the dollar knocked down a peg. You are going to start to see the price action like this. Take a look at gold. Gold actually had a little bit of a bid earlier today. Now it is flatlining, but holding at that 1500 an ounce level. A lot of analysts say that when you talk about the fair value of gold, they are looking at 1600 allers to 1800 an ounce. Guy lets talk about the brexit thing. Basically, the pound hovering around 1. 29 versus the dollar. We are a little way away from the 1. 30 level we hit earlier in the week. European Equities Trading on decent volumes today. It is more of a stock story then a stock market story today. Eat up by more than 20 . Lets return now to the brexit story. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will find out in a few hours whether or not he has a chance of getting his brexit deal through parliament. Lets go to westminster. We are joined by emma chandra. Lets get a sense of the crucial vote we are watching this afternoon. Weve got basically two votes. One is the second reading, and talk us through this timeline bill as well. Why is that so important . Emma you are absolutely right. We have two important votes coming up here in westminster. 7 00 p. M. , the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement bill. This is when mps will give an indication if they approve of the brexit deal and getting the brexit deal to become part of u. K. Law. That is due to happen at 7 00 u. K. Time, about 2 00 p. M. In the u. S. If the government wins that vote, immediately after that, there will be a vote on the Program Motion. This is where the Prime Minister is asking mps to agree to an accelerated timeline for the Withdrawal Agreement bill so that it can pass all of its stages in the house of commons this week,end of ideally before the end of thursday. We are hearing that the votes on this are very tight. It is by no means certain that the government will win that vote. We know that the labour party is whipping its members to vote against both the Withdrawal Agreement bill in the Program Motion vote. We are hearing there are some labour rebels. It will come down to rebels from both parties and how they vote for that Program Motion as to whether the government wins. If the government does not win that vote and the eu then says it will offer an extension, because not winning that vote means that the u. K. Would not leave by the deadline of october 31, the Prime Minister saying then brexit is extended until january. I will scrap the bill entirely and call a general election, or at least he intends to call a general election. Hes tried to do that two times already. Guy we will see what the labour party allows him to do this time around. Thank you very much indeed. Emma chandra will continue the coverage from westminster as we move towards those critical votes. We are joined for analysis by ceo,qsslet, cq and also the former ceo of the r. O. E. Is this a good deal . Xavier that would depend on the elected officials of the people. But having a framework, a political framework that would lay the base for future agreements, is immensely preferable to uncertainty or no deal at all. I think i could probably represent a vast majority of Business Leaders who would very much hope that this is the last visible opportunity to secure a deal before the end of the month , that that is probably what business would prefer, at least having a framework upon which more can be built, whether it is looking at potential regulation, trade agreements, migration, looking at education, export import. There are thousands of areas which will require attention, and which will take time. We are not looking at, if a deal goes through, there will be substantive discussions and negotiations going on for a number of years. These are all very complex technical issues. Guy that standstill agreement will last until December Next year, not this year. After that, we could potentially start to see some regulatory divergence. Lets talk about the financial sector. How much regulatory divergence are you expecting, and in terms of the Regulatory Framework that you would like to see the u. K. Adopt, what is top of mind . Xavier these are two different things. First and foremost, the notion last few decades, and certainly they last few years, Financial Regulation has come out of the eu to be imposed on an unwilling body of u. K. Regulators is simply not the case. The u. K. Regulatory bodies have been deeply involved in the drafting of legislation, and by far the largest regulators running the largest Financial Markets in europe. Their influence on the drafting of regulation has been profound. That is point number one to answer the first part of your question. What i expect substantive divergence right away or overtime . Probably not, particularly if there is a deal and we are looking at maintaining some form of reciprocal arrangements recognition. The second part of your question is, is it advisable to look at some regulatory divergence to boost the economy . Here i can point at many regulations that have come out thate eu in recent years do not foster economic growth. It is actually questionable whether they foster added, increased, improved, prudential and regulatory stability. I want to point in one direction where the u. K. Has a significant advantage over the rest of the eu, and that is the army of five point 4 million small and Midsized Enterprises that populate the u. K. Theres a total of 23 million in the eq, and they need in the eu, and they need urgent relief when it comes to nonbank lending capital. To do what . To foster technological innovation, to help scale up those businesses. The current fiscal and Regulatory Environment which the u. K. Shares with the rest of the eu is simply not conducive to doing that. I personally see that has the Major Economic opportunity in a postbrexit world. Where there is a deal or no deal brexit world, it is fundamentally and substantively recalibrating that Regulatory Framework. That, i believe, would boost the prospects of this army of 5. 4 million and help scale up the Remarkable Technology that still comes out of the u. K. University system, for example. The u. K. Is probably at the moment a Halfway House between the eu economy and the innovative u. S. Economy. More needs to be done to help scale up that army of entrepreneurs and innovators. We do not, in my opinion, currently have the fiscal and Regulatory Framework that would achieve that. So that is an opportunity. Romaine when you talk about that, what is the process to get that done . Part of the criticism of brexit hasnt always just been where britain ends up or what it looks like, but about how long this process is taking. When do you scale up . When do you get that regulatory transition . When does that happen . Xavier if you look at the average timeline required for, lets say, a major piece of eu Financial Regulation, on average these take six to seven years to go through the process not just of drafting, but approval, the regulatory negotiation process in the eu. It is simply too long. So i would personally argue that inareas where the u. K. Would any case, deal or no deal, continue to maintain its sovereignty, radical change is fromd to wean ourselves excessive dependency on debt in general and bank lending, particularly considering that banks no longer have the balance , and to lend today recalibrating our fiscal economy towards equities. Theres a very significant fiscal burden that has been set on equities versus the deductibility of bank lending. That is one thing that can be done right away, which in my opinion, would make a significant difference to the prospects of scaling up technology companies, creating good jobs up and down the u. K. The Regulatory Framework will be more complex. Depending on what we get, either a deal or no deal, then the reaction would have to be different. If we end up in a no deal brexit , then obviously the Regulatory Framework will be recalibrated right away. If we end up in a deal type of situation, clearly negotiations will have to be carried out with the european authorities, the regulators like the european Securities Markets authority, central banks, and other regulatory entities, and that will take longer. Romaine weve got a lot more questions for you. Youre going to stay with us. Xavier rolet is the ceo of cqs. Lets get a quick check on the Global Markets with abigail doolittle. Abigail starting out in the u. S. , we are looking at very small moves for the major indexes. Moves for the major indexes. The s p 500 and the nasdaq slightly higher. The s p 500 up 0. 2 . The dow has been slipping to small losses, and that is true, too, of the russell 2000, confirming the idea that there is perhaps a neutral Risk Appetite as investors weigh a ton of earnings reports. We have a small rally for bonds. On the recent brexit headlines, we see an interesting divergence. , in divergence with the slightly broader ftse 250, down about 0. 6 . Investors may wonder whether or not a brexit deal does get done before the october 31 deadline. On the most recent headlines, we have the Great British pound down about 0. 3 percent, but supporting the idea that traders overall think a deal will get done, lets take a look at a monthlong chart of the pound, up more than 5 right now, on pace for its best month since may 2009. Certainly some optimism backing that currency move. This is a huge monthly move for a currency, to say the least. As for some of those earnings in the u. S. , two of the winners on the day, Harley Davidson up 6. 2 . They put of a betterthanexpected thirdquarter and cut the fullyear capex. Romaine,wnside, 5. 2erlyclark down about percent. Investors thinking growth. Could be slowing. Finally, travelers down 6. 7 . They missed the lowest profit estimate. Investors clearly not liking that. Romaine thanks, abigail. You can watch all of these functions on gtv on the bloomberg. It allows you to browse all of the recent charts we featured on bloomberg tv. You can catch up on key analysis and save your for future reference. From new york and london, this is bloomberg. Romaine some breaking news regarding facebook. Shares moving lower after comments by treasury secretary treasuryra secretary Steven Mnuchin addressing libra. He says that the plans for the libra launch is premature. Steven mnuchin is speaking to lawmakers. He has said hes had meetings with counterparts at the g7 and level. Hes also talked about it with other international counterparts, and has told facebook the libra launch plans are premature. The share is down about 1. 5 . Lets get a check on the bloomberg first word news. Courtney donohoe has more. Courtney softbanks taking control of wework. Founder adam neumann will leave the board of the struggling startup. Sell 1is expected to billion of stock to softbank. He can also assign two board seats and will get a 185 million consulting fee. Sales of previously owned homes in the u. S. Fell to the slowest pace in threemonths. Contract closings were down to an annual rate of just under 5. 4 million homes. Meanwhile, median price jumped almost 6 to 272 thousand dollars, the biggest annual sales gain since january 2018. In canada, voters gave Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a second term. Trudeau overcame a number of scandals, and claims what he calls a clear mandate. Still, his liberal party lost a majority in parliament. The most like a partner for a Coalition Government is the prolabor new democratic party. For the first time in 30 years, japan has a new emperor. The monthlong correlation of Emperor Naruhito was completed in tokyo. The first japanese emperor to be educated in the west. He spent two years at the university of oxford. The emperor has no say in government policy. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Guy thanks very much indeed. We are back with big savior rolet, ceoth xavier of cqs and former ceo of the London Stock Exchange. The relationship between private and Public Markets, this company a few weeks ago was headed for a headline grabbing ipo. Is valued circa 8 billion, significantly down from where it was. The founder, with huge influence over the business, is out of the company. What does this tell us about ise nature of private markets in that transition to Public Markets . Xavier i think one thing is, looking at the going back and forth, those two markets are actually symbiotic. Whatever you think of their respective strength and weaknesses, the high cost of disclosure and compliance, for example, the high fiscal cost of equity issuance versus the essentially indirect fiscal subsidies in the private equity world, where you can actually buy a company and then put a lot of debt in it and boost your shortterm returns until the happens,etization whatever you think of their respective benefits or strength and weaknesses, the two cant really function without each other. Whether we see a Successful Company coming out of private Equity Ownership or a company that, wexperiencing can see a sort of escalator functioning. I think what is essential to understand is what is the longterm value of the offering. For a longterm private equity atpany to take a value multiples a few months ago, something went wrong at some point. Somebody is taking a shortterm view on the prospects of this company. Somebody is taking a longterm view at the advantage of private equity, given the way they operate, the way they raise their capital, which is essentially locked funds, longer duration. They had an opportunity to do what sometimes managers of listed companies are afraid to do, to take the longterm view in terms of their investment. This is where the power of equity comes into play. I think it would be very interesting to see what happens. Somebody is making a shortterm assessment here. Somebody is making a longterm assessment. I wouldnt be surprised to see this company back into the ipo market in two or three years. Romaine lets talk about some of the consolidation that we are seeing, or at least attempting to be seen, and the markets out there. Exchange the hong kong bid was shot down pretty quickly, but it has exposed what we knew for a long time, which is that some of these are itching to join forces, whether it is something to get bigger or expand their reach across borders. What is your outlook there . That ive view publicly expressed has not changed over the years. We are seeing the reasonably slow but certain mergers of the Global Financial framework. I know this is very far away from the current set, but behind come of these things are being put in place. That is going to reflect two tiers, a very small global banks,ich will offer intermediaries, and corporate issuers global efficiencies. If you are a global company, do you really enjoy having to entertain the pitches of 10 or theexchanges, each selling local poll of investors they can tap or who they have access to . Why would you want to have a single why wouldnt you want to have a single global listing that taps into all indices . It is more efficient. Sheet efficiencies, regulatory and capital efficiencies, can only be successful globally. This is what the london clearinghouse has done since its ownership by the London Stock Exchange group. So we are seeing, i think, a continued process. Sometimes these deals go through. Sometimes they dont. But we are seeing a slow process by which two or three such Infrastructure Companies are going to achieve global leadership. Guy we will leave it there. We will be back with you shortly, xavier rolet, the ceo of cqs. The market closes coming shortly. This is bloomberg. Y. This is bloomberg. Romaine lets get a quick check of what is happening in the u. S. Markets. A slew of earnings today, not enough to rally the market, but not enough to market down a peg to knock it down a peg either. The dow and the nasdaq pretty much flat. Energy, health care, utilities are your leaders. Communications, Consumer Discretionary laggards. Guy here in europe, the ftse up, but they but the taxes down but the dax is down. That is how european markets are trading. Flat today. Asonably we will take another look. This is bloomberg. Guy stocks wrapping up the day in europe. 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading. There are many markets in europe that have gone nowhere in a hurry. The london ftse 100 up a little bit more than most. There are individual names that account for that. At headline level, not a lot happening. Below the surface, a lot of interesting stories. With the pound, i want to bring

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