And Central Banks are stepping up calls for help amid fears that they are running out of options. We are live at the imf meetings in washington. Sophie checking on the start of trade in sydney. Little change, after the drop of 200, halting a fiveday advance. Broadly speaking, we are setting up for a mix start in the agion, but looking to have second weekly gain. Chinese thirdquarter gdp numbers come, as corporate numbers on the mainland have shown little improvement after a bleak first half. Japanese inflation remains subdued, giving the boj food for thought at the policy meeting. Able back below 1. 29 on brexit deal hopes, pushing it to a sixmonth low to position for a negative outcome. Aussie bonds under pressure this morning as the rba governor said the economy is improving. Offshore yuan 7. 8 against the 7. 08 against the dollar after fixing. Jessica acting white house chief of staff Mick Mulvaney denies saying that President Trump withheld military aid to ukraine to persuade key have to investigate democrats. His statement contradicted earlier remarks where he acknowledged the president offered ukraine a quid pro quo with military help. Mulvaney said that the only reason they withheld aid was because of concern over corruption, and lack of support from other nations. We look back to what happened in 2016, that certainly was part of what he was worried about, corruption with that nation. Lira rally to do a oneweek high, on news of a temporary serious ceasefire. Turkey agreed to halt military action for 120 in the border area to without Kurdish Forces to withdraw. T news was due announced by Vice President mike pence after hastily arranged talks in ankara. He said that the u. S. Will remove sanctions on turkey if the ceasefire remains in place. With the ceasefire, the United States will not impose any further sanctions on turkey, and once a permanent ceasefire is in effect, the president has agreed to withdraw the economic sanctions that were imposed. Jessica britain and the e. U. Say they finally secured a deal, and there is no need for further delays to brexit. The lastminute talks in brussels produced agreement on key issues, including Northern Irelands status and the need for customs checks in the irish sea rather than on the irish border. However, Boris Johnson still needs u. K. Parliamentary backing, and his crucial Northern Irish allies have said they will not support the agreement. I do think that this deal represents a very good deal, both for the e. U. And the u. K. , and it is a reasonable, fair outcome and reflects the large amount of work being undertaken by both sides. This is a fair, balanced pursuant to our commitment to finding solutions. It provides certainty, where brexit creates uncertainty. It will protect the rights of our citizens and peace and civility on the islands. Jessica global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im jessica summers. This is bloomberg. Inry staying with brexit, washington with our guest. Great to have you with us. Prime minister johnsons new deal, how different is this from theresa mays agreement that failed to pass . Alexis thank you for having me. It is important to acknowledge from the outset, the significance of the deal. This is an Important Development for the u. K. And e. U. But just as important in many ways for markets in the u. S. , and across asia, frankly. To behe deal needs approved, and at this point in the house of commons that is looking somewhat dicey, frankly. The deal, i liken this to theresa mayplus. There are a lot of similar elements to what was already cases, withevious some creative developments for Northern Ireland in particular. In many ways, limiting the effect of borders, if you will. So, a lot of work to be done, but a good first step and Important Development. Shery some people have said this is a harder deal than theresa mays one. Is that true . Alexis look, again, at this a longBoris Johnson has road ahead of him next week. He is in the minority party. He doesnt have the support of labour or the dup. So in many ways, this is the end of the beginning, if you will, rather than the beginning of the end to a deal. Theresa may had less than three agreements on the table. None of them were obviously agreed to. He has a long way to go in that regard. But just the fact weve gotten to this point in many ways is impressive, in and of itself, so credit where its due. Sophie what is the likelihood of a unity government being formed . Alexis you know, i think that frankly its an unlikely possibility at this point. In my estimation, if an agreement is reached in the house of commons, Boris Johnson calls a snap elections, in my opinion he wins those elections and his Prime Minister the next 35 yewars. Labour obviously doesnt want to facilitate that. On the other hand, members of parliament want to move forward, and get something done, so it is certainly a possibility. Frankly, i dont see it happening. Sophie the deal that home is running into problems with the Northern Irish party, the dup, pledging to vote against it. The e. U. Said they are shutting down talks about a fallback if the deal is defeated. Where does that put Boris Johnson, if that outcome happens . Alexis that puts him in a tough position, obviously. But i think what happened here, we moved from what was a policy debate, policy negotiation, to purely a political one. At the end of the day, the e. U. And u. K. Realize that theres no plan b, there was nowhere to go from here. Boris johnson realized that, just as much as juncker and e. U. Leaders realized that, so hes taken it up to this point and is doing the best he can. So it remains to be seen. Shery alexis serfaty, director of Global Policy at access partnership, thank you. Anna edwards will lead our special, 2 00 p. M. Sunday in new york, 2 00 a. M. In hong kong. Coming up next, the bank of International Settlements governor Agustin Carstens tells us where he sees the limits of Monetary Policy, live from the imf annual meetings in d. C. Sophie later, cpi numbers are due from japan at the bottom of the hour. Inflation continues inching to zero. This is bloomberg. Ry making the point that Central Banks can only do so much. Fiscal policy has to step in. But is anybody listening . Government for the to continue on their path, including in australia where there has been some stimulus and there doesnt appear to be a problem anymore. Are you concerned that nobody is listening . Gov. Carstens i think more and more people are listening. Many Central Banks are weporting this idea, and have to find a way this is done in a more efficient way. For example, a very large Monetary Policy has reduced Interest Rates a lot, for sovereigns. For manyof debt advanced economies has fallen dramatically. Wouldhing that would be be if they start to spend. Part of that is the effect of the Monetary Policy reinforcing. Thats what we need, how to reinforce growth, and slowly, fiscal policies have to be activated, not only from the point of view of spending, or reducing taxes, but from the point of view of spending in more growthfriendly areas. Kathleen another thing i asked Agustin Carstens about was the fact that the imf and its World Outlook raised some concerns about banks and others taking on too much debt, building their leverage. I asked if maybe part of the problem isnt for example that quantitative easing is buying bonds, and the policies in europe. Thats what countries have been encouraged to do, take on more debt. Is that going to be an issue in time . Here is what he said. Gov. Carstens we are reaching a point where monetary policies cannot can generate a small benefit in terms of economic growth, but might generate the probability of less growth in the future and Financial Stability in the future. Kathleen he did seem to say that risks are rising. Remember, hes someone who works with central bankers. When someone like Agustin Carstens says theres a risk, i think we have to realize, hes saying that is the downside of all these rate cuts, negative rates and more. And this is something the authorities have to take into consideration, not only to be also, more risks but broadly, for governments to realize that you push Central Banks too far with lower rates, and they have limited impact. More for skills fiscal stimulus, where it has to come from. Sophie kathleen hays, more with her ahead including an extrusive interview with the Philippine Central Bank governors. Quickly on aussie markets this morning, we see stocks extending thursdays drop with most sectors in the red. Financials weighing the most on the benchmark, but the aussie dollar steady, and cant yields on the rise after the rba governor said that the Housing Market is turning around and lower rates will make the economy gradually improve. Shery coming up, counting down to chinas latest gdp numbers. Growth may slip below 6 . We are live for a preview next. This is bloomberg. Sophie this is daybreak asia i am Sophie Kamaruddin in hong kong. Shery i am shery on in new york. China will be the spotlight on friday, with gdp and other data in the coming hours. Growth is expected to have weakened again. Lets bring in our china correspondent, tom mackenzie. Could we finally see gdp slip below 6 . Expectation for bloomberg intelligence. Their forecast is you will see gdp at 5. 9 for the third quarter. That would be the first sub6 print on record for china. ,hat they are pointing to pressures domestically in terms of a slowdown, but also external factors. Chinas main trading partner is the european union, but the u. S. Tariffs as well. The other headlines to look for today, reports from retail. Thats one reason we are at the headquarters of an financial, the Worlds Largest private Digital Finance company. They have their fingers on the pulse of the consumer. The forecast for retail sales, 7. 8 from august, but bear in mind that autumn sales have been under pressure for the last 15 months or so, and thats a key part of the dataset for retail. In terms of things like fixed asset investment, you are expecting to see that flat, because you have the private sector that just doesnt have the confidence to invest, and estate sector is stepping up to some extent with increased Infrastructure Spending. In terms of Industrial Production, thats expected to edge up marginally, but dont forget, back in august Industrial Production fell to a 17year low. The data today out around 10 00 is expected to show a continued slowdown. China, alsoces in in negative territory. It doesnt look like we will get a pretty picture. Shery perhaps even more worrisome, could be the services sector. Nonmanufacturing pmi hasnt done well. What can we expect from policymakers . We have seen tax cuts, Infrastructure Spending and so forth. Tom absolutely. You are right to point out the services data, because thats a concern for our inhouse team at bloomberg intelligence. Services and consumption makeup more than 50 of growth in china, and they are starting to see weakness. This is part of why the retail sales and the consumer are in focus. In terms of Monetary Policy response, most economists we speak to think the data today will underscore the case for additional stimulus, but most economists do not expect them to open the floodgates. Looking at targeted measures, more targeted tripler cuts, bond issuance at the local government level. We havent heard anything from the central bank about an appetite for opening the floodgates in terms of credit. We saw the latest credit data this week, which came in above forecast, and there wasnt anything there that really signaled a major shift in terms tf liquidity and, stimulus, bu we expect further measures on the back of this what is expected to be weaker data. They haveof credit, their own online bank and see credit growth continuing, lending about 400 billion u. S. Dollars. Sophie they have the pulse on the consumer, as you noticed noted. What else did they have to say . Broad,ll, this was a whitehaven ranging conversation. We talked it wideranging conversation. We talked about their potential future ipo, as well as the dealmaking, partners with platforms around the world, including in india, paytm, that countrys leading payments company. They are looking to raise another 2 billion u. S. Dollars we asked if they were prepared to extend their partnership and invest more in paytm. Take a listen to the ceo i think that our investment philosophy is straightforward. Were only doing strategic investment strategic that fully aligns with our overall strategy. We are focused on strategic investment, number one. We can really achieve that by working closely together. Tom one of your key partners is paytm, the leading mobile payments provider in india. Are you looking to increase your investment there . I think paytm is doing very well. Nersvery happy to be part with them. The company, it really liked it. I talked to the founder and company. E even if i didnt like the business of the company, i like him still. [laughter] very energetic, very passionate, with a strong vision. Wholel, ijn india, the healthy. S very in a very goods position to capitalize on that opportunity. Tom let me ask about future plans for the business. When do you plan to ipo ant financial . We just did a new round of financing. The company is very healthy, in terms of cash flow. We are happy with the overall business momentum. We dont have any plans for, i raising. The capital we dont have any plans for an ipo, for now. But when we have a plan, we will let you know. [laughter] tom would it be realistic to think you would be ready to pull the trigger on an ipo in 2020 . We dont have a timeline right now. No. When the time comes, it comes. We will let you know. [laughter] an ipo, itsto add, just one stage of the company. Told me he is open to more partnerships and deals, and was making clear hes not in a major rush for an ipo. Emerging markets are still a major focus for ant financial. Sophie thanks, tom. A quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Saudi aramcos mega ipo might be on hold, again. The launch of what could be the biggest offering in history was expected on sunday, but sources say it has been delayed and the decision was abrupt. Aramco was set to sell about 2 of the company at a price that would value it at 2 trillion, potentially raising 40 billion. Shery Facebooks Mark Zuckerberg repeated his mantra that the censored part of the internet in china could become the norm around the world if Online Companies dont fight for free speech. Companiesst chinese havent expanded globally yet, but the Tiktok Social Network is an example of how they can. Sophie Jeanclaude Juncker says a brexit deal has been reached. Shares in the owner of the jaguar luxury brand shout rally the most in a decade. A boost for the stock, which has lost over 20 in the last year despite thursdays big gain. We are just minutes away from japans september Consumer Price index. Will inflation continued to inch closer to zero . We will have the numbers next. This is bloomberg. Shery lets get you breaking numbers out of japan. We are getting cpi inflation numbers, with core inflation coming in as expected. Growth of 0. 3 for the month of september, excluding fresh food. The headline inflation, as expected, 0. 2 . Those numbers decelerating from the previous month. Cpi, excluding fresh food and energy, which grew 0. 5 , a deceleration from the previous month, bang in line with estimates. Of course, we have seen negative pressures on cpi from lower gas, electricity, oil prices, and now getting this deceleration in the core cpi year on year, growing only 0. 3 , getting further and further away from the bojs 2 target. Lets discuss all this, sophie, with our guest. These numbers are really not doing much to inspire confidence that the Consumer Prices will kick up anytime soon. Sophie inflation pretty much going nowhere, as expected. Lets bring our guest from fujitsuartin schulz, senior economist. With this data, another shrug perhaps, but with the sales tax hike, could that spur some inflation going into the years and . Istin with the data, it rather clear theres not much confidence around the bank of japan overall going forward. You would have expected companies are raising prices before the tax hike on october 1, but they didnt. What happened in japan, shopping is being pulled forward, and companies are just building on it, trying to get prices lower, and now they might have to lower them again after the tax hike. So overall, dont expect much from inflation here. We need different measures. Sophie and what can we expect from the boj . Morea affirming that Balance Sheet extension would be undertaken to maintain the target, but this is even as the boj has tapered bond buying to stem the decline in yields. Where should the emphasis be for the Central Banks framework, on yield control or asse