Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 20240714

Are watching in europe and the United States. The stoxx 600, really like volume today, but up near session highs. The eurodollar under pressure, so the single currency feeling the pain. The dollar goes from strength to strength. 1500, 1486. Elow maybe some positioning around what has been a fantastic run for gold. Vonnie in the u. S. , we are looking at small positives for the s p and the dow for the quarter. Today, the s p is up about 0. 25 . It could be adding to that gain for the quarter by the end of day. The best performer in the s p 500 right now is newell, up almost 5 from an upgrade to 25 a share. As you can see, we are crawling up towards that mark as suntrust says the bottom is in for newells strategy. The money coming out of treasury market. Some money coming out of the oil market as well. 50 to five dollars 55 since a barrel 55. 50 a barrel for wti. Guy a lot of anticipation around Credit Suisse this evening. Its board is apparently backing a cruciale thiame in meeting that could be happening any second now that will determine who takes the blame for a spying scandal. Lets find out what is going on. Bloombergs maria tadeo is outside the Bank Headquarters in zurich. Tell us whats going to happen this evening, and what it could mean for tidjane. Here ishe big question what exactly happened at Credit Suisse in this surveillance scandal, and what exactly was the management, including the ceo, thinking when they decided this was a good idea, that they push any of the limits here . We understand the board is still deliberating what to do, and they will have to come up with some kind of statement. Someone needs to take response ability for the fallout from this scandal. ,ust to cut a long story short a former employee was the star at Credit Suisse, who decided to go to ubs. Theres a lot of speculation as to what prompted this. Theres many reports about the bad relationship between he and tidjane thiame. At this point, we understand the board has removed some of the heat away from thiame. Shareholders believe he has done a good job, and as long as nothing here is fully illegal, this is a very tough industry. Credit suisse was obviously han stealingout k some of the talents. The board is still deliberating on this, but the heat has certainly come on at this point. Vonnie it really seems like banks are very scared about needing to recruit executives, as there arent that many out there. What does that say about the Wealth Management industry . Maria thats one of the things ive heard today many times. Essentially, you are looking at two rivals that compete for the same business, compete for the same clients. We are talking about ubs and Credit Suisse, the two big national championships. It is very real that there is paranoia in this country about who. S doing business with when you look at the industry, making money is a lot more difficult than it was before. Nobody wants to lose their portfolio. Nobody once to lose their clients. This is perhaps why Credit Suisse decided it was a good idea to put a former employee who was known for his ability to make business under surveillance. They were concerned he would try to steal talent and use it for his own benefit. Many will tell you this is a very tough industry, very cutthroat. Sometimes things like this just happened. Guy thanks very much indeed. Marias is in zurich. She will bring us a great deal of reporting over the next one to four hours. We are expecting a decision first thing tomorrow morning. Maria will be bringing you that news from zurich. The Banking Sector not exact lay one of the best performers during the last quarter. We continue to monitor what is happening in the United States and with the trade narrative as well, probably the biggest factor going into the Fourth Quarter to determine where markets go. The Trump Administration is downplaying a revelation about limits on investment coming out of the United States or the possibility of delisting some Chinese Companies that are currently listed in the United States. We saw a big reaction friday to this story that came out of bloomberg in stocks like alibaba. We are joined by peter dixon, commerzbank Global Equities economist. In terms of what is going to happen in the fourth, how important are the trade talks going to be in the narrative . We have the story we broke friday. We have trade talks coming next week. How painful is all of this in terms of the market narrative . Guest it is front and center. Is aorld economy right now huge amount of uncertainty, whether it be brexit, whether it be the slowdown in europe or what is happening in the United States with regard to politics. Downf this can be pinned to the u. S. China trade story, which is the beginnings of the cloud of uncertainty which has rolled across over the last 18 months or thereabouts. That it is in the president s interest to do a deal with china, but not necessarily now. I think you want to keep this going well into 2020. So again, it is a question of how long can you keep this going without something going wrong. Guy what i took away from fridays story, there has been some pushback from the white house today, but not complete pushback, is that the range of tools the white house is considering using may be he then maybe greater simply trade. That takes us into a new realm, and may be speaks to the fact that this is not just about dealing with the u. S. Current accounts. It is more about status and the geopolitics that goes around that. That is much more difficult to price from a market point of view. Peter it absolutely is. I think this is always been much more than trade. This has always been about the superpowers buzzing against each other to see which one is going to give way. I think in many ways, it goes to something which economists worry about, the distinction between risk uncertainty between risk and certainty. We cant price certainty because it is a known unknown. Markets wobble, but generally they recover because the fundamentals dont look that bad, but who knows. This is the kind of scenario that is very easy to miscalculate. Something goes wrong, we end up with a market crash scenario, or something goes badly wrong with the economy and peoples livelihoods get hurt. We are treading a very high wire here, and we have to be careful about how we observe it. Vonnie how important is it for Financial Markets that there continues to be a twoway street very easily navigable between the u. S. And china when it comes to financial flows . As chinasink economy continues to increase in size, it becomes a much more important player on the Financial Markets, it is imperative for investors in the west that they can put money into china and get it out again. After all, investors want to be where the action is. China is where the action is. Therefore, as you said, it is imperative the world remains open. I think if the u. S. Is really thinking about putting obstacles in that, however, we really are taking it in a different direction. I think it will have a Significant Impact upon markets because it will basically shut investors out of one of the growing paths of the Global Financial system. Vonnie speaking of that growth, how much slower is it getting, and will we see an amount of layoffs in china that will obviously have secondary effects on other markets . Economy, terms of the what seems to be priced in for the next year or so, we dont really know exactly to what extent the chinese numbers really represent what is going on, but you do get the sense that the chinese authorities have no interest in allowing the economy to slow too far. We are celebrate in the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the peoples were public. They want to put a the peoples republic. They want to put a good gloss on that. What they dont want is a bunch of people being laid off. It is in chinas interest to keep the show on a roll, and i think they will do whatever is in the power to do that at what is a pivotal time, both politically and economically. Vonnie peter, stay with us. Globals commerzbanks equities economist. Lets check global markets. Heres abigail doolittle. Abigail at this point, looking at mixed signals around the world. Take a look at the s p 500, up 0. 4 percent, moderately risk on. The shanghai composite down 0. 9 . That could have something to do with those headlines friday that the u. S. Was considering limiting the flows of u. S. Investment into china, something the white house has backed off of a little bit, but not completely. This before the seven day holiday for the peoples republic of china, their 70th anniversary. A little bit of a downturn there. Brent crude down 1. 4 , down for a fifth day. Gold, the haven assets, also down 1. 2 , so you can make the case risk on. Really neutral Risk Appetite on this monday, the last quarter of the day. We had those headlines not so long ago about the wework ipo, that the coceos delayed the ipo. This is the renaissance ipo etf. Last tuesday, then ceo adam neumann had withdrawn as ceo. And noww the big drop, lower, down 5. 7 over all of this news around wework. We will be following this very closely. The quarter is coming to a close. Big moves here as well. Take a look at this chart in the bloomberg. The dow and the s p 500 in white and yellow, they are up on the quarter. The tech heavy nasdaq in blue down, the first down quarter since the very volatile Fourth Quarter of last year. That is true for the russell 2000 in pink, along with the dow transports in orange. Mixed signals here, especially when you put it together with the big rally for bonds in the Third Quarter around the world. We may have a chart of the 10 year yield on the quarter. Look at that, giving up 34 basis points, at one point at 1. 69 . Interesting considering the mixedsignal for stocks antibig rally for haven bonds stocks and the big rally for haven bonds. Vonnie just an update on wework. A statement coming out from the new coceos, saying, this was an official pause in our process of becoming a public company. Wework publicly withdrawing the prospectus for its initial Public Offering. The 6 billion credit financing line had been contingent on a successful offering. They will have to find cash somewhere else, potentially from softbank. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Wework formally withdrawing the prospectus for its initial Public Offering. That cost its Top Executive his job. Also, one of the major owners. Lets bring in bloombergs jillian tan. Reporter last week, we reported they were likely to go public in 2020, and it is just not come in for companies to leave filings hanging with the sec. C. With the fc guy in terms of changing the nature of this company, what has got to happen for this company to come back to market . We seen what happened. We know what has gone on in the company. Coceos in,w restricting the access in terms of spending. In terms of what has to change, do we have any clues as to what will turn wework into a successful ipo . Reporter the Company Needs to focus on cutting costs, proving to the market it can be profitable. To show the pastor profitability, they plan on cutting staff in the thousands, approximately 4000. They are looking to sell some not so core businesses and really focus on the core business, which is Leasing Office space on a shortterm basis to companies, so enterprise clients like microsoft, amazon, walmart, right through to five person startups. What we do have from the coceos is an email they sent to staff today. Rest assured, wework will become a public company. We can only ipo once, and we right. Do it they acknowledge it has been a tough few months, and they asked their team to focus on delivering a good product to clients. Vonnie the 6 billion credit financing line was continued on a Public Offering this year was contingent on a Public Offering this year. How all in is softbank . Will softbank provide some cash . Reporter softbanks among the most likely to step up and inject a little more capital into the company. Probably they will ask for some sort of restructuring to protect their downside, for example, if the company were to implode. Tan, greatlian reporting. Our thanks to you. Guy i just want to bring peter dixon back into the conversation. Not on wework specifically. Are you surprised how resilient equity markets have been given what has been thrown at them . Wework is just one example. In some ways, it is a confirmation that Public Markets do work, inasmuch as they havent wanted wework to come to market. We have a bunch of ipos that have been really tough. Youve got the impeachment story out there, the trade story out there. Are you surprised, given everything that has been thrown at risk assets, the equities are basically just going sideways . Peter yes and no. In a sense, you are right. The news flow that has hit markets in the past, there would have been no coming back for many of these stories. Valuations look a bit stretched. Ive been saying for quite some time, im cautious. And yet, the one thing which keeps markets going is the fact that Central Banks continue to either keep Interest Rates low or start to cut once again. In an environment where you are getting a significant evident yield on stocks which is way above what you are getting on 10 year treasuries, for example, you really have to say invested in equities, unless you think there is going to be a real selloff. At the moment there are no selloffs happening. Guy we have several very big, highprofile ipos that have not succeeded in coming to market. Given the level of risk there is out there, the fact that equity markets have held up, what message should i take away from that . Peter the way i tend to think of it, i stay invested, but i stay invested in fairly liquid assets that i know i can get out of very quickly if and when the tide turns. The problem we have seen over the course of recent years, too many investors have gone long liquid stocks. When things change, they cant get out quickly enough. Thats what you dont want to do in the circumstances. If and when everyone tries to rush for the exits and markets collect spectacularly, i guess that is the risk we have to take because at the moment, you really want some return in equities. Whether it be executive orders or tweets or promises, china negotiations ongoing, have you begun to take stock of what impeachment proceedings might due to Financial Markets . Peter well, we have. We still think it is something which is way out on the edge of possibilities right now. I very much doubt that in impeachment could be made to stick, for example. I think for all circumstances, we remain cautious. But i think you have to start looking at where this might start to impact. For example, Health Care Stocks have come under scrutiny recently. If the focus of u. S. Intentions starts to switch to impeachment, maybe some focus comes off of the health sector, and that will give them a chance to catch their breath a little bit. There are some straws in the wind that say impeachment might be good for certain sectors of the market, but overall, it is something which, at the moment, we are keeping a watchful eye on, but no need to panic at this stage. Vonnie how strong does the dollar get . Does it get to unsustainable levels . Peter you know, i dont think theres a huge amount of dollar upside at the moment from where we are now, depending on what the ecb does in the future. If the ecb is done for the moment, think theres every possibility that the euro could regain a little bit of ground. We have to say that right now, the weight of momentum is with the dollar making further ground. I would be surprised if we get below 1. 07 anytime soon. Vonnie peter dixon is sticking with us again. Your dixon is commerzbanks Global Equities economist. This chart shows the european stoxx 600 has outperformed both its developed market peers and emergingmarket equities in the Third Quarter. Looking ahead, over the past decade, the Fourth Quarter has seen the biggest gains in europe, with the rally providing average gains of 2. 8 . Dont forget, all of our charts in the gtv library. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Its time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. In china, alibaba and richemonts joint luxury offering his gone live. Alibaba has predicted that chinese consumers may take up almost half of the Global Luxury Market by 2025. Microsofts largest reseller is planning ipo. The swiss tech firm to software one is planning a deal for q1. Kkr intends to keep a significant stake after the ipo. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Lets check u. S. Markets now, the final day of the quarter, a monday. S pdow up about 0. 4 , the up almost 0. 5 , and the nasdaq up 0. 4 . We will see if we can make it a positive quarter for the nasdaq. Before today, it wouldve been down about 0. 6 for the quarter to date. Guy with the holiday, china closed for the rest of the week, it is a very, very light market session in terms of volume. Nevertheless, there are some interesting things we can take away. It is the end of the quarter. The ftse 100, finishing the quarter, looks like it is going to be fairly flat. Some of the oil stocks, some of the drug stocks getting a little break today on the ftse 100. The dax being led higher by l

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