Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240714 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 14, 2024

Pmi data for the euro area. Look at european equities. We are trading down. 8 . The forecast was 52 so it is a miss on the composite. We are already seeing Euro Weakness ahead of this so we might see a leg lower in the euro. European equities on the back foot which is a divergence what we have seen with u. S. Futures. Mixed messages over the weekend over whether there is optimism or pessimism coming in over trade talks. He drop of the 10year yield brent crude is coming off the highs from earlier. Concerns around iran and the speed of saudi a ramp saudi aramco. We are live at the Labour Party Conference to speak to the director general. That interview with Carolyn Fairbairn is that 9 45. Viviana and the u. K. , that is where we begin. Boris johnson is the latest leader to say iran was behind the attack on saudi arabia. He made the comments to the u. N. General assembly. The comments coming at eight tough time for tehran. It. Denies i am not confident, i am confident that we can not start one. I am confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes. Viviana oil on the rise as doubts remain on how quickly it saysa can officials are privately in emergency talks. President donald trump appears this is ae that phone call to ukraines president. Oft call is now the subject a president ial investigation. Trump repeatedly asked the president to investigate the son of the democratic president ial hopeful. Dmp. Che bank is to they will continue to manage the platform until clients have been migrated over as part of the executor0 staff trade. Execute their trade. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Cook has filed for administration leaving tens of thousands of children stranded abroad. The travel company failed to complete a lastminute deal for additional funding collapsing under a mountain of debt. All vacations have been canceled. The government will work to bring holidaymakers back home calling it the largest repatriation in peacetime history. Joining us now is deirdre hutton. I know you are part of all of this repatriation, what advice do you have for travelers . Deirdre look, i will answer your question but can i say it is an incredibly sad day . Thomas cook is the worlds oldest travel company. 22,000 people using their jobs, 9000 of those in the u. K. But you are right, we have been the Civil Aviation authority running the repacked ration. It is a huge operation. Airports to, 55 bring back 155,000 passengers. Not a single one of those passengers are stranded. Everyone will be brought home at or around the time that they were originally going to fly anyway. What they need to do is go to will givee and that them all of the information they need. Their new flight will be loaded on their website 72 hours before they were due to come home. Nejra what about travelers who have holidays booked and waiting to go on them . Anybody who is booked to go out on a holiday on thomas cook from now, there holiday will not happen and they should not go to the airport. There will be no thomas cook flights of any sort from the point at which the company went into liquidation at 2 00 this morning. I am afraid their holidays are not going to happen. Deirdre how could people claim back the money that they booked . People who have actual production will be able to reclaim their holidays. They should also go to the website which will give all of the information about refunds. Our complete focuses on the repatriation because it is a huge exercise. We will start on the refund exercise which we expect will take two months to complete. Nejra the huge repacked ration operation, how is how much is that going to cost . Who is going to pay . Deirdre well, obviously i cannot pin down the cost but the repacked ration we did two years ago cost 50 million. Thegest thing since biggest repatriation ever. The airlineto build pretty much from nothing. The cost will be carried by government. From the funds that come through the nejra are you concerned that the downfall that thomas cook has gone through might be one that faces other travel and tour operators . Look, this is a hugely consumers are getting such good value for the holidays. Thomas cook has faced a lot of competition. Entrants. New lowcost as one commentator put it, it has been operating on a brochure basis. I think for a particular reason, there is nobody else major on our watchlist. Nejra deirdre hutton, all thanks to you. Lets get the latest on exit. Brexit johnson will start diplomacy today. He will start to push for a exit deal on the sideline. Back in the u. K. Numbers of the Opposition Labour Party is readying for a fight. Jeremy corbyn is facing the campaign for remain in the event of a second referendum. Lets head to lighten or anna edwards is at the conference. It is really shaping up to be a busy week for labor. Anna absolutely. Welcome to brighton. The labor market gathering for the conference and the divisions over brexit are huge and still at large over the events. We heard that Jeremy Corbyn once the back of the members of the labour party. Lets remember Jeremy Corbyn is set to be a general election. He wants to go to brussels as the new Prime Minister. Negotiate a brexit deal that he likes that he thinks is credible that lives up to the labour party test. Then put a vote to the people and run that up against the other option on the ballot paper. That is what Jeremy Corbyn wants. Remain is the only path forward, the path needs to be more proremain. He certainly said that he cannot see any other deal other than remain dividing the same level of benefits to the u. K. Economy. That is an area of disagreement that is at the heart of what has been decided here. More than three years since the brexit vote. We dont have a firm policy of leave or remain from the uks official opposition party. Mix, update in the on renationalization. We dont have a formula on how investors will be recompensated. There are a lot of other policy items on the agenda. It wants to block a new deal brexit. That is something that will return to the house of commons in the middle of october. That is in the hands of the supreme court. We look to london for guidance. The brexit decision hanging heavy over the south coast of england and the Labour Party Conference. Nejra anna edwards, thank you so much. Joining me is Valentin Marinov. Welcome. What are you looking for at the Labour Party Conference that might affect or not affect your sterling call . Valentin the party will throw its weight around the remain vote, any potential second referendum. Far, there is more evidence there are two key divisions and that is a negative because where we see the support for brexit at any cost, the same time those opposing the no deal brexit potentially supporting remain are quite divided. That is likely to shift further the likelihood of the potential outcomes of really going into any potential elections and that anyway will support the party of the moment of supporting brexit at any cost and by implication could lead to a situation where we have a no deal brexit. My concern going into the speech by corbyn later on is to be no deal brexit risks may intensify as a result of the location of development negative development of the pound. Prefer a way to shore the pound against dollar. Potentially even gold if investors like to consider that. Ber sterling, we may flirting with a recession in the euro zone. Whole andone as a with ecb running out of options, that is not the best mix for any currency. And may not be the best way to express a bearish sterling view. You will be targeting the return flows to 120 especially given that the risks ahead of a inential lack of action november may favor a no deal brexit. You may see the tory reemerging as the winner in the coalition which could ultimately mean even weaker pound. Nejra Valentin Marinov stays with us for the hour. Stay with surveillance. Plenty coming up including we will talk trade after cant after channel china canceled plans. We get the latest on saudi. This is bloomberg. Nejra economics, finance, politics, this is bloomberg surveillance. I am nejra cehic. Trade groups from china and the u. S. Have held constructive talks according to Chinas Ministry of commerce. It comes after markets after u. S. President donald trump said he is looking for complete trade deal. Sentiment was knocked right chinas cancellation in the american heart land. We learned that was done at the request of the u. S. With me, Valentin Marinov. I get the sense that markets, investors not sure what to make of this because you so weakness in the asian sessions. Also when i was looking at the yuan, the officer was strengthening. What is happening . Reaction the neva jerk the kneejerk reaction. Or delay was not triggered signaling deterioration in the relationship between the two ahead of the official talks due to start in early october. Markets likely to remain jittery. We do not expect any rates through any soon. The two parties still far apart. Intellectual Property Rights and secondly u. S. Politics is very much driving. Being that trump has been exploding the protectionist , his popularity ahead of the president ial elections and think he may want to use that particular theme for a bit longer provided the u. S. Economy is holding firm. So far it does seem the u. S. Consumer is doing well. A president has all the intent to continue the nationalistic rhetoric to boost his popularity in the polls. No, we are not optimistic heading into the official talks. The markets likely to remain nejra if youre not optimistic heading into the talks, which currency pair do you wish to express that through . Valentin the japanese yen is becausewe would prefer the fact that many the repatriation for an important reason is the fact that the boj is out of options when it comes to further cuts into negative territory or even more qe. That makes the yen very attractive. The australian dollar, you could have a short of yen which could as the as a hedge that trade war escalates farther. Nejra do you think the fed is going to need to cut more beyond one more cut this year . What does that mean for the dollar . Valentin given how important the uncertain surrounding those trade negotiations have been in driving rates, i think that further escalation that will likely mean youll have to cut one more time before yearend. Of the expectation because there is a global uncertainty, the u. S. Businesses will continue to suffer. This more dovish members will likely increase. As result the rates will likely gradually declined from here. Also against nejra Valentin Marinov stays with us. Next week if the situation on saudi as oil resumes gains on rising tension. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg surveillance. I am nejra cehic. Around is refusing to rule out war and the middle east at the u. S. Sent military aid to saudi arabia. Doubts remain over how fast saudi arabia will be able to restore output. Lets bring in yousef gamal eldin. Us. T to have you with what were your takeaways . Yousef the first thing that stands out is how sophisticated and surgical these strikes were you go to these facilities and we look at the stabilization and the damage was just on the portion of the wider area. Point number two, the damage is extensive to some of these tickler towers. The third point is you have every consumable resource being deployed by saudi aramco in terms of trying to get these facilities back up and running. Hundreds of men around these areas are working aroundtheclock and we understand parts are being flown in. Some of these structures may have to be replaced. There is skepticism about the timeline from saudi aramco. Bit gued that is a that it is a bit optimistic. There are some who say they can achieve this by the end of the year. Nejra in terms of further tensions, we have comment from both iran and Saudi Foreign ministers over the weekend. Boris johnson has weighed in as well. What have we learned . Being the tensions are ratcheted up even further. We are in for quite a row over the next few days at the u. N. General assembly. A lot of heads of states are going to get their chance to share their views on this issue. You have the Saudi Foreign minister banking it clear that they are going to wait until the investigators are finished and make their conclusion. They are going to make a recommendation on how to respond. Secretary of state, mr. Pompeo, is describing this as a state on state act of war. An appropriate response is going to be put together. You have the british Prime Minister chipping in on this and saying even the u. K. Deployment of military assets is a possibility. The iranian offering and olive offer ying they will we will see how that works out. Nejra yousef gamal eldin, thank you so much. Up next, mario draghi will appear in the relevant today. In the Parliament Today. The pmi data has missed in the euro is below 110. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Nejra thomas collapses. The British Government promises the biggest repatriation at the british cooperator goes under. Boris johnson merkel, macron the sidelines of the yuan general assembly. Can he move frexit talks forward . Tensions between the u. S. And around fuel another rise in oil. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am nejra cehic. Lets check in on the biggest stock movers. We have to kick it off with Deutsche Bank. It is down nearly 4 . A completed its deal to transfer the prime brokerage business to bnp paribas. About 1000 deutsche employees left the move over to french bank over the next couple of years. Thomas cook, its pain is its rival gain. Easyjet surging on the news of thomas cooks collapse. It is leaving a lot of holiday years around the world stuck in the u. K. And the u. K. Is working on bringing them home. Nejra let get the bloomberg first word news with viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin with chinas cancellation of a visit to america. It was done at the request of the u. S. Learned chinas vice premier plans to visit washington d. C. And the second week of october. Over to the u. K. , we are waiting for the u. S. The u. K. Supreme thets decision on whether Prime Minister acted lawfully when suspended parliament. A ruling isnt expected until the afternoon at the earliest. In the United States, donald trump acknowledging he discussed former Vice President joe biden in the phone call with the ukrainian Prime Minister. The president said the question was about the discussion was about corruption. Police and protesters clashing again in hong kong on sunday. Violence erupted in several parts of the city as unrest continues for a 16th straight week. Hong kong is bracing for a surgeon demonstrations. Demonstrations. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Nejra . Nejra lets focus on the euro area and Mario Draghis appearance in the Parliament Today will provide investors the chance to assess his time as president of the ecb. There was a big mess from many with pmi sliding into suffering its worst downturn in almost seven years. Valentin marinov is still with us. Weve got the euro area numbers. It was a miss. Manufacturing, services and the euro has taken another leg down. We are below 110. Valentin on the one hand you have the data which is continuing to disappoint. Nothing seems to be stopping the deterioration. In addition we have a central bank that is rapidly running out of options. Draghi likes to say that the ecb is willing and able to address the problems in the euro zone. But investors are quite skeptical. It is sad for the president given the amount effort he has put into saving the euro to see it all being kind of a challenge in such a way towards the end of his election career. Nejra is germany headed toward a recession . Valentin we think it is quite likely. We dont think it is going to grow into a more sustained downturn or spread into other countries or many other countries in the euro zone. We expect growth in the euro zone after the fall. On the back of that, the ecb may have to do a bit more and we do expect under the rate cut on the cards. 60 basis points. The Bigger Picture still is the ecb is running out of options and, indeed, their ammunition is running very low with all eyes on the euro zone government. Mores opening targeted fiscal stimulus which help will help prop up the economy. Nejra ec the ecb is running out of tools. How effective do you think the resumption of qe is going to be . And the other measures . Valentin the effectiveness is affect. On the stock it has been pretty dominant. , the draghiy presentation was underwhelming. According to our estimates, if the ecb sticks with the Current Issue limits, it cannot have a qe lasting for more than 12 months. It could buy more private assets. It is not a significant increase. Qe flow side of the reinvesting and likely keep yields suppressed. Ultimately going to keep easing and keep financial conditions easing. The way where is that growth going to come from . Even that Consumer Confidence has can severed has recovered. We do need that end investor to emerge. That buyer an investor has to be the government. The is only get on back to fiscal stimulus as the instigator of recovery. Before that the ecb could be hopeful to smooth as the economy decelerates. Downturn. D to a sharp nejra i remember. We talked after the decision. If you expect further euro would it be more euroyen or another currency . Valentin it is a great funding currency. The ecb

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