Holding. Quarters of 1 on the 10 year. Ago,about nine days trading at 1. 16 . To basis points higher. Crude oil and others deeming a breakthrough. We do have a fall coming with iran. That is because of john boltons departure. Crude oil moving to 9 10 of 1 . We already we await mario drahgi. Moving things along and looking at new york. Su keenan is there with first word news. Su we start with the u. K. Government. Chaoswarning of soybean with this russian that trade and financial services, and the possibility of public disorder. The document is part of a worstcase scenario. Parliament voted to force Boris Johnson to make it public. The government is facing legal action. The Scottish Appeals Court ruled the suspension of parliament is unlawful. Won a legalump has victory over his policies over the border with mexico. The Supreme Court says his administration can support a new rule designing a limit of who can apply at the border. The policy can remain in place while a legal challenge goes forward. Lower courts put the law on hold. Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor both dissented. Sources in the white house a National Security advisor john bolton left after arguments with President Trump over easing sanctions on iran. We are told the president had a meeting with iranian leaders later this month, but was warned against the idea by bolton. The treasury secretary agreed with the plan, prompting the president to ask for boltons resignation. Malaysiaision day in with policymakers expected to keep rates on hold. Trade tensions are increasing tension pressure from her easing. 16 are forecasting the benchmark rate will stay at 3 . It is a 25 basis point cut. Was one of thea first to cut Interest Rates, easing in may by 25 basis points. News, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Rishaad President Trump moving back his terrorist increase on chinese goods by two weeks. He tweets the decision and out of respect for the 70th the anniversary of the peoples republic. His move comes after china announced a list of things to be exempt. The list covers more than 1. 6 billion worth of goods. Pharmaceuticals, pesticides. We mention what was not on that list as well, which is more important. The fact that there is no soybeans, pork, and beef. It is in the double digits. Yvonne down to the rishaad down to the african swine flu. The two in make of fro . We have seen it for a long time. Of investors are used to taking it in stride. Back to may, there was an expectation of a deal in may and there was aisappotment. Since then, all the forwards and backwards, trying to read between this, but it will make a way to it. About john talked bolton, whether he resigned or was sacked, does that remove an impediment . Do you think chinas olive branch with them not instituting their tariffs on certain goods is part of that . Leon i am not sure how much i would read into that. On think any into will individual member outside of trump will be the key driver, if there is a deal or not. Influence. Bolton has one way or another, he probably did, but whether that is material, i would think it would not make a difference. Yvonne all of a sudden it seems like yields are back up. You see the rotation and massive move into value. What do you think is the trigger . Leon they a lot of it has to do with the fact that markets moved a long way and things got stretched. Particularly if you look at how far we moved in august. U. S. Treasury yields were up 2 . By the end of august we were down 50 basis points. Now we have back backed half of what we gained. A lot of that has been a realignment. I think the same is true for the performance stocks. Even after the route we have seen after the past week, if you take a longer snapshot, those months with higher momentum are outperforming. Move, itg part of the has not completely unwound. It is more of a risk. For this to be sustained, you need to be there is a real excel or he of growth an acceleration of growth coming. I think this is an adjustment. Rishaad these things have a lag in terms of rate decisions. How do they stack up . Leon that is interesting. The markets know that and they look at price forward. If you look at the relationship between equity Market Performance and what transpires between economic performance, the markets leak. The markets are always somewhere within three months to 12 months ahead. What the markets are trying to do is anticipate. For this rally to continue, i think what they will anticipate is a stronger growth into 2020. That is not our view, we are a bit more cautious. We think growth will be ok. We do not see that re acceleration. If markets were to continue to rally, that would be a standard growth. We look ahead to growth in 2020. Yvonne can you still be defensive . That is what the theme was for august. Can you say long moment on, short value when treasury yields are gaining ground . Leon when you take a longerterm perspective, not looking for the next week or three weeks worth of trade, maybe this unwinding is going to happen. If you take a sixmonth kind of a window, you can see how quality and certainty of growth will be the dominant thing. Momentum is not momentum for some sake, it is because momentum was well people wanted to owned. Technology stocks, for example. In a world where growth will be bellow, momentum is going to momentum will follow quality and people will continue to chase quality. Yvonne we will have more from leon goldfield. Still ahead, boosting up. We will track be ecb policy decision and hear from mario drahgi. Wolff talks opec and the prospects for oil. You are watching bloomberg. Yvonne the focus has to ship did the Central Bank Policy with decision due today. They are expected to lower Interest Rates and offer more stimulus. Rishaad President Trump resuming his attack on the federal reserve. Trump is urging the fed to cut rates to zero or less. His colleagues are being naive for not having policies of other central banks, and described the fed chairman and his team as boneheads. Leon goldfield here. How much is it expected to yield . Leon i would probably say the fed runs the largest economy. That is going to be more significant. The ecb matters and there is a lot of expectation over what they will do. Ecb is lookinge to surprise. Other members have tried to walk that back, but the market has seen expectations for rate cuts, as well as the introduction of kiwi. The market is waiting. Rishaad will it make a difference . Leon i think it makes a difference of the margin. Event has an impact on european financial conditions. Ultimately it does have an impact on the economy. As ank it acts more support for the economy and will reignite growth and European Growth because of ecb action. There is definitely some for sure. Yvonne if the ecb does not deliver today and it is not kiwi, does that mean that rates globally have bottomed . Say rates haveo bottomed, you have to be confident the Global Economic cycle has struck. Looking at where the indicators are coming through with economic data, there have been some signs that they have not deteriorated much further them where they have gone down to. Maybe we are stabilizing, but i think it is close to the bottom. I think the fed, having put one insurance cut, is likely to cut next week and we think will cut one more time in october, if not, also december. Rishaad we look at the fed and what has happened with the bond market and treasuries, i think it was james carver that said years ago, if you believed in reincarnation he would come back as a long bond because he could bully anybody and it is intimidating. The fed, dont fight but dont fight the market yet either. Back intomarket goes financial conditions and the fed is aware of where financial conditions are. It is trying to influence it. The market is important. The market is also shifting. If we had this interview two weeks ago on yields would be at 140. It is not like the bond market rules the world and is what the world will look like. The mop the bond market is trying to ascertain what the market will be. I think it is important to have some sense of what is value for bond. But that market is quite a bit away. That, it is not necessarily a signal of anything except excessive behavior. Yield is at lower the market expects lower growth and the market should act, which is what it was due what it is doing. Yvonne should we assume the euro will weaken . Leon it was the Fourth Quarter of last year that we had volatility and risk assets. Fx has been incredibly stable. Euro and yen have been roughly in the range. We have seen some trends like the cny. Our expectation is that the dollar stay stronger. The euro could weaken, and we prefer to see it weaker. Whether we will get a sizable move, i think we would doubt that. Rishaad the other thing is, is the euro finally pricing in a hard brexit . Has been understated how much damage losing europes economic second economic value could do to the European Union itself . Leon all markets are pricing in the hard brexit. I think it is reflected across the euro. It is not fully price the hard brexit because it is not 100 probability. The odds have slightly fallen for hard brexit. I think what i would say on brexit,if it is a hard for sure, markets will react. But it would not be a shock. People who are very fearful of it, and we are talking investors, that is probably a wrong reaction. It is in the market. I dont think a hard brexit is something people should worry about. But there will be weakness in the euro. Rishaad pleasure having you on the program. Lets have a look at what we have coming up, and looking at chipping away. Yvonne we will assess the outlook for semiconductors and specters. Tech Bloomberg Intelligence is joining us next. This is bloomberg. Rishaad you are back with bloomberg markets. Money fory raising its largest real estate ever. It dwarfs the 15. 8 ilion dollars raised in 2015. Institutions, such as institutions and Pension Plans putting more money into property to protect against inflation as well as to diversify their holdings. Is goingahoo japan for the fashion site. Stepping up rivalries with amazon. They plan to buy more than 50 with the support of the founder. Of moree a market cap than 6 billion. It is Online Fashion against aggressive rivals like amazon. Rishaad boosting growth with billions of dollars of stimulus. By currency is strengthening more than 6 against the dollar in 2019. The most in asia and the most in the world over the past five years. It has contributed to thailands weakest economic expansion since 2014. Yvonne lets look at currencies. With the baht, we are seeing it have a good day. Both sides of u. S. And china are having trade talks. Delaying tariffs in october by two weeks. The ozzy dollar is up a 10th of e dollar is up a 10th of 1 . Marginally speaking, the taiwanese dollar has seen the best rally in two years. Rishaad we are just getting to the lunch break in tokyo. Look at that. Just had that story. Yahoo japan is taking a majority stake in the Online Fashion shopping site. It is still below the premium that they are willing to pay. Trending up 7. 6 . A price level earlier, buying back up to 60 billion as a consideration. That is being seen as a positive surprise because it is much bigger than what was expected for this fiscal year. We have Tokyo Electron also getting an upgrade their. Tokyo securities retail going up 3. 2 . Lets get more on the trade war with continued escalation hitting the global Tech Companies. Yvonne lets discuss that with our Global Technology correspondent. We were talking about this backandforth when it comes to the trade headlines. One day it is good and one day it is bad. How is the tech sector viewing this right now . From a global electronic manufacturing perspective we 30 move of global electronic manufacturing away from china and it is not coming back. I think we are in the risky mode structurally. Other locations are being considered. Everybody from thailand to be at mom, to the philistine vietnam, to the fillet teens moreppines whether it is intelligent making of servers and pcs. That is a given. I think that companies are in the position of, ok, we put all in this basket, it will hurt and we will never do this again. That is one part that is very clear. The bigger risk that we see is from more deeper technology and ip intensive manufacturing. Where does that go, how does that reposition itself, etc. I think chinas potential designs to become a Semiconductor Giant might be more thwarted. Then we start to say, ok, our which is an advanced chipmaker foundry has most of its factories in taiwan. I think those areas will continue to become stronger going forward. Sense, tell me, broader how does this affect chinas stated goal of moving up the value chain . Anand anand this runs the risk of becoming or creating a u. S. Track. Rishaad bipolar world. exactly. That is not good for anybody. You have to pick sides. From a Technology Perspective this is the between vhs and betamax. Phones never used to work in multiple geographies. Now we created a chip world workedhe same chip in multiple forms across the world. You run that again and it becomes more and more expensive, more and more annoying, and that is not good for either Technology Development track. Yvonne you have been watching huawei as well. What are the prospects of the company under this ban . Kempe survived this can they survive this . Most people say it is like zte. One is from a revenue perspective. Their parts in the u. S. Are a no go. I dont think there were high hopes for that that would occur. That is now clearly off the table. The second part of it is their internal development. Rnd. E ar i think the risk there is in the nearterm, slightly less. You would long term, run the risk of creating this dramatically different, dramatically parallel development track. This is what we spoke about earlier, and that occurs at the rnd level for chips. In the nearterm, not a big deal in our view. But in the long term, pretty substantial. Yvonne when it comes to development of 5g, will china lead the race . Anand 5g, the Value Proposition still remains mixed. 5g in china is slightly different because it is being pushed by government. The adoption there will be aggressive and fast. The Value Proposition, the Business Case for 5g is not that clear. Yvonne why is that . E of the things about 4g is that you get more data faster. The 4g to 5g bump is there, but are you willing to pay for that . The korean market shows thats not the case. Then you say it is about advanced application and machine to machine communications. It is about advanced robotics. Rishaad its a hugely. Huge leap. Anand it is, and we are not there yet. It will take a long time to develop 5g. Rishaad i will stop you there. Bloomberg intelligence anand. Yvonne we have plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Devices are like doorways that could allow hackers into your home. And like all doors, theyre safer when locked. Thats why you need xfinity xfi. With the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. Which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. And people inside from accidentally visiting sites that arent secure. And if someone trys well let you know. Xfi advanced security. If its connected, its protected. Call, click, or visit a store today. It is1 10 china has announced a range of u. S. Good imposed last year as beijing seeks to end the impact of the trade war on major items like soybeans and pork. Pharmaceuticals are among the exclusions. Worthegories of goods 1. 6 billion. The idea of independence for catalonia is back in the news with hundreds of thousands staging a mass rally in barcelona. Before theeeks cemetery 11 commemorative and the spanish war, the leaders face a range of charges including rebellion. The number of people still unaccounted for in the bahamas following hurricane dorian. 2500 names long. It is expected to swell as rescue teams reach outlying areas. Power has returned to much of the islands. Enteredese woman who President Trumps maralago resort when his family was there has been convicted of trespassing and line to the secret service. The shanghai consultant defended herself in court and faces about as questions linger what she was doing, and about the level of security at the time. Resumed hisump has attack on the fed, saying Interest Rates should be zero or less. As a poll shows most americans fear a recession in the next 12 months. The president accused jay powell and his colleagues of being naive for not a new lighting the policies of other central banks. He characterized powell and his team as boneheads. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Bloomberg. Oil is rising strongly after an equally sharp decline earlier on signs that the u. S. Improve relations may following the departure of john bolton. President trump has considered easing sanctions on iran. As opec pluses ministers gather in abu dhabi. Deeper cuts are not on the agenda, but there are concerns about oil demand. Guy wolf, global head market analytics, Marex Spectron asia, what do you make of what is happening in the oil market, and how much can be put on the doorstep in iranian relations . It seems counterintuitive. Oil on the more market, the price will go down. Think the oil market is interesting, a lot of moving parts and competing forces. It is much the case of the market now which is relatively tight. Inventories are drawing down. What people perceive to be the situation next year when the market is expected to have a surplus. Here and now, the market is tight and susceptible to having sharp rallies. It is all about what it will be like in the next six to 12 months when the situation around International Relations and whether sanctions get renewed, but also the trade war is another factor. Surplusthe forecast for is based on slowing global growth. China, thelly with tweet from trump about delaying additional sanctions on chinese goods for a couple weeks, then obviously people will change their forecast again. There are a lot of reasons why oil is volatile at the moment. The aramco ipo next year, it is likely that saudi arabia wants prices supported. Yvonne we were talking about opec plus and they may refrain from cutting. Why do you think there is a hesitation for deeper cuts . Guy partly because the forecast for a surplus next year anyway. Tight rights quite now. It is difficult and has been difficult for the last two years for opec to drive cap in excess of what people think is the case. With the market tight right now, there is an obvious reason for further output, but the expectations of an increase are very low. Difficult for the saudis to drive further cuts unless the Oil Prices Fall significantly from here. I think the status quo is the most likely scenario. The thing here, how much is russia willing to play ball with all of this . And how long will they play ball for . Geopoliticale of situations is anyones guess. , they are not the major market mover in this scenario. Toy can selectively choose participate with opec if they want to, it is whether it is in their interest to do so. I cannot see any obvious reason why they would rock the boat significantly at the moment. It is very much more about what the u. S. Will do in terms of foreign policy. That will drive the markets more significantly. Cannot do,ec can or it is critical to know whether there will be sanctions or if there will be a continuation of the trade war with china. Those are the dominant factors that will affect supply next year. Lets move to the safe haven that is gold. It is interesting because people are saying you must get into gold, the price has gone down. Gold has fallen out of favor in recent years. Iting the financial crisis was seen as a safe haven, but actually what people have come to realize, there is no yield. You have to pay to store it, it is a negative carry asset. We remain in a world where people are hungry for income and the yield, and that is why we see bond yields so low around the world. Safe haven assets, in the absence of risk of default which people are scared of, but in the absence of that, it is difficult to make an argument for gold in bonds,ver government which are paying a coupon, however small. The main problem for gold now is the rising dollar environment. It has been rising for two year s, and it is a big headwind for gold. Only if we saw Global Economic slowdown in association with a weaker dollar, which often does not happen, gold would find favor again. Yvonne hold on a second, we have breaking news. Of 5 billion for asian unit in hong kongs ipo. A couple months ago it would have been the worlds biggest ipo. It is at the moment resurrecting another application involving the listing of the minority without its australian operations. To guy wolf,s global head market analytics, Marex Spectron asia. How ceo jeff warner is navigating the trade war. This is bloomberg. Rishaad one u. S. Social media giant is finding success in the lucrative Chinese Markets. Soars, it iss owned by microsoft. Million a advertisements each month. We were told exclusively about the chinese plans. Think if operating in china how we have been successful, our vision is to create Economic Opportunity for every member of the global workforce. Other companies with a different sense of purpose or mission have probably found it difficult to do business in china because it is inconsistent with what they are trying to accomplish. Whereas the creation of Economic Opportunity, every country in the world can get behind. Our operation is in early days. We have a talented team in place developmentfocus on to understand product fit and cultural differences. We will continue to invest. Tariffs, dotrade in you feel pushback . With regard to our business. For microsoft and larger technology companies, there are different implications. By virtue that we are a professional network, the tariff s are not impacting us to the same extent. There is talk that china would not hurt Tech Companies on but moretariffs, rules, boundaries and limits would be their way of putting more backlash on u. S. Tech companies. Do you feel any of that . I do not know if that is anything new, but when you make the decision to operate in china, it is a you are prepared to comply with the law in china. Whether that is new regulation or additional friction, whether the competitive landscape, that is competitive. We continue to see that. Operating there is different and operating in the united states. That was our exclusive chat with linkedin ceo jeff weiner. Aiming for 5 billion u. S. Dollars and budweiser excludes the operations. The decision will depend on a number of factors and prevailing market conditions. J. P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the sponsors of the hong kong listing. With thethe struggles fallout from the unrest in hong kong. 11 from a year ago. Hay warned cat against using the airline which has seen its chairman and chief executive resign. Yvonne Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell sharply. The Hong Kong Exchange is 36. 6ng the equivalent of billion for the london Stock Exchange and remains committed to the deal. It could Reach Agreement amid unrest in hong kong and concern over chinese ownership. On that story, later, the former chief executive of the london stock asked change has aces apprise bid has a surprise bid. Yvonne we are counting down to the opening session in india. Risk on across the region this morning on trade optimism. The best runup since march, does this sustain . So, trends suggest we could see this move extend itself. Today a weekly option, it is important to see if these levels at 11,000. More positive from the broader market, the number of stocks advancing on the back of volume. We could see them start to converge, that is a good indicator. Some block deals to place. Can actually help us move further. About stocks in focus. What are you looking at . The banks over the last few , it has started to pick up. Two stocks in focus with the bank of india looking to sell a 3. 5 stake in life insurance. Hospitalspollo to bring downe leverage, that will be a positive. Yvonne thank you. Trumps campaign to stem the rise of china is in resulting in the dismantling of the decadesold made in china copycat image. Rishaad how did this come about . At apple for instance, and they have designed in california, made in china. Soon it will be designed in china and made in china. Counterintuitive, but it has been happening for many years. China wants to design tech as well. , that isat companies what they are doing. The key word here is location ofximity, because 90 headphones are manufactured in china. When the designs and r d centers are so close to the manufacturers and suppliers, it is more easy compared to having headquarters in silicon valley, and something goes wrong. There is that time difference and geographic difference. That is where Chinese Companies are picking up. React they can act and faster. Is there anything comparable in the u. S. . Right now you see the companies have been trying to move their core r d centers back to the u. S. , including manufacturing capabilities. They are tried to see if there. Re alternatives to china it is happening at a slow pace because the ecosystem is so wellestablished. It will take time to adjust. China can develop the software and services for these devices, is the goal that china can become selfsufficient . I think this was not the goal of originally, but because of the donald Trump Trade War it has accelerated these companies goals to become selfsufficient. It has shaken these companies awake and made them realize down the road, not only will they have to design their own products, but in terms of key core technology, the chip manufacturing needs to come up with alternatives as well. Yvonne thank you. Some lines coming through from taiwan. Former foxconn leader rishaad he was president . Yvonne he was, but he has quit the opposition party. Spokesman,o the there are questions whether he will run as an independent. Is that going to split the vote . You have that hong kong situation helping as well. Up, battle ofg the charts. Yield rebound yvonne this is bloomberg. Rishaad it is time for battle of the charts. Bestwill be hitting their charts against each other. The bloomberg function at the bottom of the screen right there. Things off with andrea. We know bond yields have had a sharp move higher since hitting those lows earlier this month. What the chart shows is the 10 year u. S. Treasury yields about 30 basis points off that low in september. If we look at, key technical levels, what you will see the first resistance level is that 50 Day Moving Average around 1. 8 . We are not far off back, but it is hard to determine at the accounting. Perly we could have a better outcome to the u. S. China trade, and a wave of bond issuance from companies around the world. On the other hand, there are other things out there that may push bond yields back down. Global growth is slowing, u. S. Manufacturing is slowing, a truce in the trade war is far from certain, plus policy is heading lower. We expect cutting rates next week will be a big focus for bond markets. The next thing to watch is the u. S. Central bank meeting on thursday to get some sense of major Global Central Bank thinking, and where bond yields are going to go. Didnt look as if the resistance level was much of a support level, when it went down quickly. That is right, but a lot of things have happened in this last week. Even today we are getting the sense that maybe there is some resolution in the trade war. A lot of investors have said bond markets had rallied too much. Rishaad i have to give cindy a crack as well. Investors in Chinese Markets are expected to have a glorious september as the country prepares for its 17th anniversary october 1. History is on their side. Index did well leading up to the anniversary, and the chinese yen was stable around those periods. Trades have been showered by causedand before that it a ratio, and has said it has began to fix rates stronger than expected levels for 17 days. These have made chinese shares the worlds top performers over the last month. According to goldman sachs, the Chinese National team may have been proactive in the stock market since august, and that is why we see the volatility measure drop to the lowest level since last february. Even now President Trump is showing a goodwill gesture by delaying additional tariffs. Rishaad the winner is yvonne i like them both, but i will vote for andreea. This is bloomberg. Taylor im taylor riggs in san francisco. This is bloomberg technology. Titans of tech. Oracle ceo takes leave. He announces he will take a leave of absence for health reasons. Shares slip and post market trading as revenue comes up short. We will have details. Plus, the cisco bread. We will talk potential supply chain disruptions amid u. S. China trade tensions with john chambers, former ceo of cio