We lost Kristen Gillibrand yesterday. How many more do we have to lose . Emma nine more will not make the debate stage out of the 20 candidates. That is what i wrote about today. David we are looking forward to the debate. Can people remain in this race if they do not make it onto the debate stage . They can but it will be hard. If they do not make it this debate in the october debate, it will be very difficult. Being on the debate stage is more than just debating off other candidates. It is about showing you are a viable candidate, expressing your platform and getting our message out. If you are not on their, it is going to be difficult for donors and primary voters who matter a lot at this stage to see you and feel like they should continue to support you. Vonnie you said the magic david you said the magic word, donors. When you have john delaney who has money in his own pocket and says he will stick it out and i will, who is best positioned and who is weakest on the money . Emma they have not released to the next quarter fundraising, it is hard to say at this moment. If you look at their fundraising emails, it starts to be quite obvious who needs more money than others. Besides that, if youre looking at people like john delaney and people like sestak palms buyer, who is a billionaire and has enough money to make it through the race. That is someone with enough money to stay in. He got the donor count to make the third debate. He was just one pull away from making the debate stage. He is another one who we should watch. David and as you say, if anyone has the money, it is tom steyer. Now lets turn to Craig Trudell in new york. A break from china today. Craig this is significant. We are not talking about import taxes. We are talking about purchase tax. When people are buying their in china, they have had to pay a 10 tax on their purchase. They no longer have to do that. If you make their electric vehicle in china, you know tesla is poised to do that at a plant outside shanghai. This is a nice sweetener for them before they get that plant up and running. Vonnie david that is tesla. Gm did not get a sweetener from President Trump today. Craig this is a response to gm uaw represented workforce has now slipped to number three behind Fiat Chrysler and for. This is a huge development. This is the company that decades ago was not only the largest employer in detroit but the largest in the country. Now it is number three. Trump taking note of that and coming after the company, saying maybe they need to move back to america. David deliver on those jobs he promised. Thanks to Craig Trudell. Now lets go back to jonathan live in in miami. There are a lot of orange groves in florida. Jonathan there are, indeed. As much as 60 of orange groves could potentially be affected by this. We have seen the reaction in the price of orange juice. This could also be a huge real estate story. Some of the highest value real estate in the United States is right here along the east coast of florida from miami up to palm beach, and right on up to jacksonville. We have to see where this hits and assess the damage. David there could be a lot of Property Damage. A lot of insured homes down there. We saw movement in the stock of some reinsurers on this news. If it is a monster, the way President Trump describes it, what level of Property Damage could we be looking at . Jonathan overall, we have been talking about damages on the order of 10 billion. There is so much uncertainty about this storm at this point. We cannot say exactly when it is going to arrive and the governor of the state of florida continues to be on the airwaves saying we have no idea where it is going. It could be anywhere from miami up to jacksonville. David thank you so much, jonathan. That is great. Now lets get a check on the markets and for that we turn to abigail doolittle. Abigial stocks are a bit wishywashy, the dow, s p 500, nasdaq, markets are mixed. The dow unchanged. It had been slightly higher, earlier slightly lower. Trooper the s p 500 slipping between small gains and losses. The nasdaq is underperforming. It is not clear what is behind this action. Earlier the s p 500 had been up. 5 . A continuation of the volatility we have seen in august. The friday before a long holiday weekend. Some traders taking advantage of that. It is not a risk off day. Bonds are trading lower. If we take a look at the s p 500, it is an up week. First up week in five. The s p 500 putting in nice gains both wednesday and yesterday. Here is todays multiplying, the wishywashy here is todays small decline, the wishywashy action i was talking about. As for some of the stocks moving , Campbell Soup up 10 , on pace for its best day since 2000, beat both sales and earnings estimates, lots of hope there could be a turnaround for the beleaguered Consumer Staples stock company. Investors buying in and United Health and caterpillar trading higher. Not for specific reasons but investors buying highquality names. This explains why the dow is outperforming to some degree. For the quarter, we are at the end of the month for august, and we had do have a down month for stocks in august. For the quarter, lets go for a broader perspective. Starting off in the beginning of the quarter, the s p 500 and purple, we have gold and blue and bonds in the yen in white and yellow. We see into the fed meeting on july 31, all trading flat to slightly higher. After investors were disappointed by the fact it was not more dovish, we see stocks declining, gold taking off, we have yen and bonds higher. This is a quarter of havens and when he threw the trade uncertainty in their, it does make sense that the Third Quarter is tracking a bit risk off. Much of it coming in the month of august. David thank you so much to abigail doolittle. Coming up, hong kong crackdown. The Police Arrest prominent activists. We head into what could be the next the 13th week of protest. We get an update from reva goos on, next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is balance of power on bloomberg television. We turn to riddick or group to four bloomberg first word news. Florida is bracing for hurricane dorian. The category 4 is expected to make landfall earlier next week. Florida governor tells residents to be prepared for what could be a multiday events. Dorian has already called blackouts in the u. S. Virgin islands. Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest in six years, and 8. 6 job from july dropped from july. The Economic Outlook for the next 12 months is down to its lowest since january. The Russian Military says Syrian Government forces have begun a unilateral ceasefire in the northwestern province. The ceasefire began at 6 00 local time. This comes after week of intense defensive actions in rebel held areas. More than 100 and 50 more than 150 african migrants entered a spanish enclave by climbing over fences and walking across a border mode that separates the territory from morocco. Some climbed to the top of a 19 foot fence four hours until Law Enforcement officers brought them down and arrested them. Video showed the migrants cheering and shouting victory in their language as they ran toward a migrant protest center. Moroccan Officials Say they have broken up over 100 Human Trafficking networks and stop more than 150,000 crossings this year. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Imd of the group to ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. David Hong Kong Police today arrested several prominent activists and now they are warning of more arrests to come if protesters go forward with protests planned for a 13th straight weekend. One arrested today was joshua wong, 22yearold, also one of the leaders of the Umbrella Movement in 2014. The arete he addressed reporters today after he was released on bail. We shall not surrender. I urge the International Communities to send a clear message to president xi. Using emergency ordinance is not the way out. We will continue our fight no matter how they prosecute us. David we welcome reva goujon. Welcome back. Give us your sense of where things are in hong kong and more particularly is beijing ramping up the pressure on the protesters or they just trying to maintain where they are . Reva i think this weekend is going to be a very big test of that, notably the human rights front which was planning a big march 4 saturday. Authorities said that march was that hasrized, and so officially been canceled. There are still calls for people to, out, that means for people to come out, that means more radical elements could still take the lead, there is still opportunity for things to turn violent, and beijing has been signaling and intervention could be coming. We stopped to look at the lead up to the october First Anniversary of the peoples republic of china. Beijing does not want to stain that anniversary date with a messy crackdown. If there is an intervention, it will have to come sooner rather than later. David we have to turn to iran and what is going on with the nonexisting talks. There is a report in the New York Times that says the top regime in iran is changing its view. It says the idea is taking hold that iran must eventually negotiating with President Trump. The regime has concluded President Trump can be reelected, and the country cannot withstand six more years of the sanctions he has imposed. Is it possible iran is changing its position, that it may sit down at the table with President Trump . Reva are they i think they are feeling out options. Iran is looking at the lead up to 2020. It has been exposed to that trump does not want war in the persian gulf in canceling that strike. That was out in the open. Iran has established a military threat in the strait of hormuz. Now that it has that end has been increasing its nuclear activity, it is trying to see what it can do in terms of extracting concessions, particularly when it comes to sanctions easing. Now that Emmanuel Macron has come out with this idea of a credit line that by oil exports, iran wants to see if that can happen. Trump has somewhat green lit it, at least in one statement. The test is coming soon. Around september 6 is when iran is supposed to take the next step in increasing its nuclear activity. If we see restrained by iran, that could be a signal this negotiation is moving somewhere. It will not be the comprehensive negotiation trump is looking for but it is at least a potential deescalation. Much we heard talk about runaway inflation, a lot of domestic inflation, how much pressure is the regime feeling . Reva the economy is under a lot of pressure. When we look at a downward contraction of anywhere between 5 and 10 , that is possible for iran in the coming year. The iranian economy is not spiraling, either, and we are seeing the government taking harsh and effective action against price arbitration, making sure we will not see runaway inflation for now. They are keeping a good lit on it given the circumstances. I do see this eyes not see this as iran capitulating in a negotiation with the white house, but they have established that military threat they are trying to see what they can get out of it for now. With the french actively trying to mediate and offer a credit line, that is worth entertaining. We have to see if the moderates in the league on the diplomatic front be able to pursue that to its logical end, or are we going to start to see more political frictions in iran, especially in the lead up to parliamentary elections. One more place of Geopolitical Uncertainty is italy. This morning we woke up to hear wanted to comply with eu rules in the budget, and then later on we hurt maybe the coalition is not holding together. Italian bonds have responded both ways. Reva we will know in the coming days. One of the bigger test is seeing what is happening with the fivestar online vote on approving a new government and how that is shaped. This is a very populist party platform, and these online votes are important to stay the fivestar movements are acting on the will of the people and its supporters. If it gets that endorsement, that would give us much more confidence the coalition will last. Fivestar wants to avoid an early election. The Democratic Party is divided, but right now the motivation is avoiding an election that could reward the league. There is still potential to hold us together, but want to watch closely. The Italian Government does not have a precedent for lasting long. David thank you. That is reva goujon, Vice President of Global Analysis for strathmore. Four stratfor our stock of the hour is next. This is bloomberg. You are watching david you are watching balance of power i am david westin. Shares of uber have been under pressure since the company went public. Twoy chang spoke to the ceo years after he took over from the cofounder. Here is what he had to say about changing coopers culture. Culture. Ng ubers you need different management for different times in the company. Every manager has their faults, and every Management Team has their faults. The fact is we built a Great Company and now they have handed it to me and i have to take that Great Company and make a greater. I think i am up to the job, and while they made a mistake, they built a great brand that had weaknesses but has incredible strengths. Emily the guy who land the trucking business who ran the trucking business uber bob was charged with stealing Self Driving Technology from google, stealing trade secrets. What do you make of those charges . Here when weot brought anthony on board. What i do know is we went to incredible depths to make sure any information that anthony might have acquired from google, and it sure looked like he did, did not make it over to our company. That was our responsibility and i think we are incredibly diligent in making sure that we were not guilty of anything that could be nefarious one way or the other. We think when you built, you have to bill the right way rate anthony is a talented person the right way. Anthony is a talented person, and i think we did the right thing good emily the person who was here and cost you credibility is already on the board. Travis kalanick. I asked you this on ipo day. You question his position on the board . Dara i am going to live in the here and now. Travis has an incredible amount of historical knowledge about the company. He is incredibly bright, as are our other board members. I use him at the board. He is a strong advisor and his background is incredibly useful. We are a Public Company and the shareholders are going to get to pick their own or. Their own board. Emily so you talk to them often . Dara i talked to them during board meetings and offline, absolutely. Emily he is on the board for now . Dara he is on the board now and he will be on the board tomorrow. Vonnie that was uber david that was uber ceo talking to emily chang. Of smith the maker i amandguns cut surprised tariffs are affecting them at all. Kailey they took down their guidance for four year earnings. The highs they are seeing is . 78. That is because of a 5 million cost they have to take because of these tariffs. Those will ramp up in the back half of the year. They said they been trying to shift some of their supply chains out of china but it has been hard because the supply chain is not that sophisticated, and some of the components required for this manufacturing are not the same as they are in china. They are struggling to do that and that is an issue a lot of these companies are facing when it comes to china. David what about on the revenue side . A lot of the gun makers are struggling because the stores do not want to sell them. Kailey that is a huge issue. In the fiscal First Quarter their net sales were down 11 year on year. Only 124 million. When you compare that sales to a 5 million tariff charge, you can see that is not insignificant. Gun sales have been falling. 2016,as down 16. 5 from which was a record year for firearm sales because of the election. This is about the general political environment. When you had a democrat in the white house and constant fears of more strict gun measures, sales were ramping up. Under trump, they are falling. David when there is more control about gun control legislation, sales go up. This time it does not seem to be happening. Theres a lot of talk about background check and things like that. Kailey there has been a lot of talk, but not necessarily action to follow up, especially when you have a prosecond amendment president. That fear is not there in the same way as when you had a democratic president. As all of that is happening, you have a broader sentiment shift on guns. You have the likes of Dicks Sporting Goods no longer selling guns to people hundred 21, phasing out the hunting section entirely at many of its stores, and places like walmart under pressure to stop selling guns after the el paso shooting at a walmart. Sentiment is shifting around a lot of the things. In addition to that, now you at tariffs and the macro environment not a pretty picture. David it is fascinating. I did not know about the important issue. That is kailey leinz. Up next, sunday marks another increase in tariffs on chinese imports. We talk with the former u. S. Ambassador to beijing in a longtime senator. If you have a bloomberg terminal , you can interact with us directly. On your terminal. Live from new york, this i