Points in terms of the peak to trough. Every day this month, we have een 00point swings in the Dow Jones Industrial average. Level. Closing lowest first year, lowest yield ever and the spread gets below since 2007. Numbers the dow, 30 1 . Lower than by at least the s p 500, taking a look at a chart that we have now, five sessions in a row. Going to keep the score. Set the stage. This is a 50day moving average in yellow. At the start of last year, once below that average, it couldnt get out of its own way. The buyers really did step up and had a nice rally and absolutely slicing below it. In may, we had a bout down below the 50day and sally, you are below that 50day moving average. It looks likely we will go down to the 200day average. If we go below the laszlo of 2822. So things could get bear tissue pretty quickly. It could get bearish and looking at one of the biggest stories. The inversion. Look at this chart and see Global Economic slowdown continues that inverted gap in rates for two and 10year treasuries and lowest for the First Time Since 2007 and this is a precursor recession and leads by a year and a half and longer term growth while the feds rate helps supports yields on the shorter end. Thank you so much. Doug, i want to come back to you. Doug, you heard abigail talk about how things could get bearish really quickly. 2744 on the s p 500, why is that so significant for you . Well, we do some Technical Work but the 2744 is the june 3 low. There is no other magic or looking at a price pattern. The thinking here is what is teatering right here is business and Consumer Confidence. And it is getting whipped around by daily moves in the stock market like you saw yesterday and then followed by today. The surprise tweets dont help. So confidence has been very volatile and we look at a lot of measures and optionsimplied vol tilts. And the Consumer Confidence numbers are very good but the issue is the stock market is related to confidence. And i just think if we go back and take out that july im sorry, june 3 low and remember that may decline was triggered by an escalation of the trade war by donald trump. If we go back and break through that level, i think thats going to break the back of confidence on the part of both business and consumers and that will be it for the economic upswing in the u. S. And will be it for the u. S. Bear market. So we are not that far away. Its around 90 points or so, little over 3 . So again, to me that would be a confirmation and if that level in the s p should fall, remember, we have a lot of stuff that is already there or broken through it. There are cyclical stock indexes and transports. I was looking at the average stock earlier today, its right there. I mean this has been a very narrow market in the last couple of months. So a lot of stocks are sniffing out economic trouble. When the market goes up, you could ignore the risks out there and when the market goes down suddenly it is like germany and argue again tina and hong kong and other stuff going on. If what we are seeing in hong kong, is that driving a Ripple Effect with liquidations . It could potentially be possible. We have seen money money flow out. That is right. The story changes from daytoday. Yesterday, the s p were surging and had a strong day. Yet in the morning we are still dealing with weak Economic Data t of sing singapore and germany. It seems as though it is ignored because it is easier to ignore them on the days when you have strong gains. We have seen such strong volatility when it comes to swings this month. If you look at the average daily swing, 1. 8 . The only time you seen a greater 2016. Was january of we are set for the most active month of the year. We are seeing a bit of a change. Im interested on what is happening to individual companies. Sco, came in line with expectations but noirk is not living up. It First Quarter revenue estimate next quarter. The market went to 83 cents. And even though we see a relatively decent Fourth Quarter for them. Especially these days given so little visibility. When you look at macys giving how disappointing how disappointed investors were by the latest results, how much faith do you put in the companys outlook here because they are dealing with the same set of circumstances which we dont know what is going to change their outlook . With regard to macys i found it remarkable they attributable so little of the disappointment to tariffs. I find the amount was so small and i find it hard to believe. I dont know exactly and exactly what their sourcing is to what they sell on the floor. But again with tariffs, we have argued if you do the math, i be a whole houldnt lot of net impact on g. D. P. Over time they are not insignificant, but it relates to animal spirits. And its not only the fact that we are doing them, but its the fact that when we do them and to what extent we do them is uncertain. There is really no ability to plan forward, especially with this christmas sort of channel stuffing season right ahead of us. We dont know what will be impacted and when that rate might hit. So, i hate to say investors hate uncertainty. It is a terrible cleach a. But the whipping of those policies at the same time you get the whipping around in the markets at a time when confidence is fragile and the cycle is expended. I almost said the same thing with the events in hong kong, mid cycle, if we have a steadier rise in investor confidence, markets could slug that off. Wont have that current luxury with the current backdrop. Cisco falling in afterhours trading after First Quarter outlook misses. The average is what analysts were looking for. That does it for the closing bell and for me. Well have much more on the market meltdown. This is not the selloff. The worst day for the dow. The question is doom and gloom, stocks slide. And mr. Macys. The Company Results signalling more pain ahead. And buy, sell, hold, well find out where the top Money Managers put their money in the Second Quarter, within this hour. Slashing, recession warnings, a stock selloff. And the you and u. K. Treasury yields fell to a record low. The gap between two and 10year yields dropped below zero after a wave of stock Economic Data. Im interested in your view of the recession. Has it signaled, the small inversion not for long on the 210. We have been looking the curve since march. Our model for recession actually slashing to be more precise. Over the next 12 months. If you look at the models, they dont give that signal. Global growth is weak. We have these trade headwinds, how much does it impact u. S. Growth. This is the big question out there. And the market believes that the fed is no longer preemented and this is not enough and whats ahead for the u. S. Economy. That is i believe it. If you flip this into a model, how does the fed react to this in away that is going to be effective . We have jackson hole next week and some investor sent ti metropolitan and it will say much more than a midseason adjustment. Its too early for the fed. They wab to be preempted and they want to see the data. The data is going to take a turn for the worse and the fed has to see more than a midcycle adjustment. If we do go into recession. It may be too late to back track and change peoples perspective. It could help a lot. The fed was the case that turned around the market in may, june when they started to talk about it. It is not a coincidence that the stocks made its peace and this may not be the first in a string of longterm cuts. There is some support that feds can do and we are clammering for support. But i dont know if it will be enough to get stocks to travel all the way back and past their former peaks unless we get support from the trade site. Because the signal from the latest market movements surrounding trade is a delay is not enough, we need some kind of truth and stability to get the confidence that businesses will reinvest because thats the key. We need to see a slowdown in the deterioration of Business Investments before stocks get more excited. What i found interesting about the u. K. s present dickament, they are increasing inflation at the at the same time. Do both Central Banks say we are happy with it running hot at the moment . I think, yes. What the fed has realized and they would be happy to have that overshoot. If inflation is moving higher that is a shock. I dont think the fed does president think that is an issue. A would be inflation running little bit high. And only been two weeks and maybe im harsh. But it has flattened. So the market is falling the feds bluff that it doesnt do a whole lot. It. Ile i do can high ut this is not an intrastate problem. And i dont think the fed has the ammunition to move that higher. They probably dont want to be ahead of the curve and say we got the markets back because i dont think they have the tools to improve. How much faith the market has either in the fed or trade policy. Market o august 1 and tanks and we recoupe those losses but never got close to that 3,000. Is that faith dwindling that we will get a trade deal or fed support or that trade deal and fed support will be enough . There is confidence in the Economic Outlook has taken a hit in the last couple of weeks and not exclusive to trade but probably an impact from the trade turmoil that we have been contending with the last year and a half. The numbers out of germany and china kicked off on a sour note and gone lower from there. We have seen some deterioration in the confidence of the Economic Outlook. Equity investors look at the most important. We dont know. But nonetheless, its the one that typically mostly inverts relative to the recession time line. So the ticking time clock set by inversions and the yield curves last year and again in march is just accelerating and that is decreasing the amount of confidence that we have. I want to ask you about the role in peoples portfolio. On big down days in the stock market, you get the nice jobs and yields. Hedging some of the risk. And we arent getting much of a bounce up in yields so we are not paying for it. It is like a free lunch for investors, because it is hardly costing anything. Great volatility is happening. How long can that last and could we have some period of time in which we continue to have these tremors in risky assets and the yield starts falling and the overall portfolio doesnt work quite as beautifully . It depends where you are. If you are hedging aspect of treasury is a lot more. The market is already priced. So i think the front end is going to lag that. What can change that is inflation. But real wage inflation. I hope for all our sake, it is tight enough and we spend more. That is real sustainable inflation. That is bad news. But i have to say, we look at demographics, automation. These are things that keeps the pressure going to talk about the old curve. It would have been taking that. For ually need inflation it to be higher. That is bad news for the long end. Treasury can be the only hedge here. Thats the message here . All right. Both. Ou coming up, we were chasing a highrisk on an i. P. O. And hope to sell billions of stocks. We work at high risk i. P. O. Having raised 12 billion and never turned a dime of profit and the company one step closer to going public. We have the Bloomberg News i. P. O. Reporter. This is one of the more interesting to come to market. We have been expecting it, it seemed to raise more questions than it did answer. He idea that 2. 3 billion in negative equity at the end of the Second Quarter, where was a company so leveraged and deep in a hole and come to the market and ask investors give me a bunch of money. Companies like uber going public, its arrays to market share and borrow at all costs. Still isnt making money. Are we able to tell from the filings whether we have been around for years and it is a profitmaking enterprise. There is a big question between Revenue Growth and profitable Revenue Growth. It is cloudy and they are taking their stab into it. But this is an over arcing question like lyft and uber or snap and blue april ron. How are these Companies Going to perform uber is cutting back. Anniversary working in a business. Safe money. This is a tough thing. But seriously, in terms of some of the other things we learned, they had a pompous statement. We knew they had losses. How much control was he going to be taking . We knew it was a lot of control and credit. These numbers give us more certainty as to what those figures out. The costs are just overwhelming, look at the filings today. Over 500 designers and architects and Trained Community managers, they are to have collaboration and support their members profingse neal and these are the things that we put putting money towards. Thank you very much for joining us. And hedge funds disclosing Second Quarter investments in 13f filings. Lets look at the 13f filings for the last of the big investors, berkshire hath ah away. Bank of america, coke ca cola. Wells fargo. Kraftheinz, amazon increased by 10 as some of the other positions out. And we had an icon adding to petroleum and activist. Blue mountain cut their pg and e. And new buys including uber and square. D square added Berkshire Hathaway. From new york, this is bloomberg. At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Mark im Mark Crumpton with the first word news. Hong kong officials have confirmed nearly 1000 flights were canceled over the last five days and at the airport had to freeze public assets. The hong kong secretary for housing and transport explained why the airports management obtained an interim injunction. We have no choice but to go the way, to ensure that airport would not be affected anymore, and to ensure the economy and at the future of hong kong would not be jeopardized. Occurrencese such in the future. Mark a statement from protesters to airport travelers reads in part, it is not intention to cause delays to your travels and we do not want to cause inconveniences o you to you. We ask for understanding and forgiveness as young people in hong kong continue to fight for freedom and democracy. A plaintiff strike at Heathrow Airport has been suspended, workers at the Busiest Airport in europe had planned to walk off the job for two days next week over pay disputes. Officials say the Union Representing security guards, firefighters and other workers is giving its members time to consider the companys offer of a nearly 8 pay raise over two years. Democrats on the House OversightCommittee Want answers from william barr over the decision to resume executing federal death row inmates for the First Time Since 2003. In a letter, they asked why the decision was made, and who was consulted. While the Death Penalty remains legal in many states, federal executions are rare. There are questions that Jeffrey Epstein will never answer now. But in 2003, he spoke to a journalist, david bank, over the course of five hours on his caribbean island. He discussed a range of subjects from how bear stearns to Alan Greenberg helped him to get his start. Why it is all about who you know and why he only took ultra wealthy clients. They would say, can you come look at my file, tell me what you think. And i said i would only take a billion dollars or more. Mark he said he was also very comfortable in my own skin. I feel free to follow my own personality. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Another day, another round of bad news highlighting the risk at that the Global Economy is heading for a downturn. With germany and china both suffering, and bonds in the u. K. And u. S. Sending out recession warnings. Dana peterson is joining us. Thank you for joining us. How bad is it . Obviously, the china data, the industrial growth at a 17 year low, germany sliding into a recession can we see the world is a recession or are we not there yet . Dana we are not there yet, but Economic Indicators have been worsening. In china waited receive some pretty pathetic data. Retail sales, Industrial Production and germany. We had negatives on gdp. So there are concerns about the future, the next 12 months and what will look like globally. Romaine you mentioned what we got out of china and germany. We obviously have mixed data coming out of other segments in europe and the u. S. Is the global slowdown, is it issuesrelated to demand issues or Financial Stability issues, or is it more policy induced when it comes to the slowdown . Dana i was i just it is policy induced. Even when we look at europe as a whole, domestic demand seems to be holding up. In germany, Business Investment has gone to the upside for the Fourth Quarter in a gone to thee Fourth Quarter in a row. It is really the ex