It looks like a Consumer Confidence beats on the top line. Coming a lot stronger as well. Is ad know that the s p little bit lower and that continues to be the case. Off by. 4 . The big headline number is tech. Semiconductor coming in with it is sporting forecast. It is dragging down all of the tech sector. Threemonth, 10year. Only inverted by 1 basis points. Jay powell tomorrow, he will be happy about that. Want to take a look at the financials index. One of the worst performers within the s p 500. This is after we heard from citigroup yesterday. They are laying off hundreds of global jobs. 80 of those in your london, guy. Guy deutsche banks front and settle on a story as well. Here, we are trading with a 121 handle. That is helping out the ftse 100. It is not trading as much to the downside as its continental counterparts. By is done. 2. 22 is down 2. 22 . The lufthansa is trading down today. Bayer is trading down today. The tray narrative mixed up in all of this. Continental market in europe, down and down hard. Ftse is being rescued by the pound, taylor. Taylor you know what else is coming to our rescue . Jay powell. First, Central Banks race to the bottom. The bank of japan is adamant that it has more ammunition left, while policymakers look to the fed tomorrow as it kicks off its fomc meeting today. The other big headline, u. S. And china trade talks will resume after a twomonth pause with little hope of a picture in shanghai. Breakthrough in shanghai. We are joined by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute cohead of Global Fixed Income strategy. I know you work global, but i have to start with u. S. Morgan stanley this morning is saying we should cut by 50 basis points. Where do you stand . Extreme views. By more than one is expected, and the other is to go the opposite way. The fed is built into the markets and execution that there will be a cut. It would be unfortunate that they do not deliver on the cut. Expected and from our perspective, we think there will be a cut. We think it will be one more cut but not as much and market has gotten ahead of itself. Taylor is the fed data dependent or are we racing to the bottom . George hopefully they are more datadependent. The important thing is why are they cutting and what is the goal behind that. Our concern is that really does not cut needed at this point. If you look at the data, employment itself is better than it was last year when we were raising rates. If you look at the inflation outlook, yes, it has dimmed a little bit. It is not significantly to the manager that we think dictates a cut. If you want to stimulate inflation, how you do that is more through quantitative easing that cutting rates. That is a challenge the fed has to walk through. Guy george, good morning. Lets talk about cuts versus what could happen if we get to the recession. We are for that if the fed cut 50 once this week, maybe once in september, that is an insurance card. It encourages this legal to carry on and therefore it is positive. If we start to get the fed hinting that it goes beyond the 50 aces points 50 basis points cut, the market starts discounting a recession. Is that where the line is on the 50 basis points . George that is actually in line with our belief, guy. We believe the market is conditioned on at least 50 basis points and cuts. We think that is the baseline between now and yearend. But your point, if they continue on this path of cutting rates, they are signaling to the markets that there are more challenges that the fed sees that the market might not be anticipating, and it might have a reverse effect. It is important for the fed to get ahead of the market than being directed by the markets from which we think is happening a little bit right now. It is important transition point for the fed. If you think about what is going to happen tomorrow, there is going to be two things. There is going to be a rate cut and theres going to be guidance on that. The action is obviously accommodative. But the guidance instant start shifting towards the strength we are seeing in the economy and reflective of that and cautioning that the cuts will not be significant as the market is anticipated. Guy george, what was going to be more important for were risk assets finished the week, the fed, and the commentary as you talk about, or the tray narrative . George i think for risk assets it is going to be the fed. If the fed continues on the path and actually matches easy action and easy guidance, then the floodgates are open for taking risk on. Markets,n all types of emergingmarket debt, highyield, and the equity markets, that is going to need to another leg of that might not necessarily be a good thing in the long run. That is where they will be taking direction from more than the challenge you are seeing a little bit now with the trade dialogue going on. Taylor you say we cannot cut our into inflation. Why are we cutting instead of doing qe . George that is what we are struggling with right now. We dont think there is any for cutting right now, but they have guided the market that there will be a card. To pull back will be more disadvantageous than following through with it. They need to follow through with enough that follow through with it now. Taylor signaling maybe a cut in september, what are the tools in your toolbox they can use . George they are looking at expanding their toolset. Not just a cut, but a resumption of qe, at the idea of tiering. The removal of the negative rates because they cannot shift the negative rates to consumers, so they get really hurt. We have seen that happen where the banks have gotten weakened and because of the negative rates. From our perspective, the ecb does have the ability to do a little bit here to expand their quantitative easing, potentially even beyond just treasuries, mortgages, and corporate into the equity market. And then the idea of also the tiering will help things a little bit. Guy can i just pick what you said just now and what you said about u. S. Credit as well . How much has the credit market anticipated, a, what the fed is going to do, highyield and investmentgrade we have seen some compression, how much more is there still to go and how much price relative to where the market is in the fed and b, with the ecb, how much has already been priced that the ecb will restart their credit buying program roughly in similar size and cutting similar sort of assets than they did before . George fair amount of pricing into both. Domestically in the u. S. , you are looking at highyield spreads of around 370type of level. This turkey around average you are looking at historically around average you are looking at, 4, 4. 5 type rates. Cycle fights are around the 3. 10 type of level. That is an opportunity to get underway. Highyield will do fine this year. 3 to 4 , below are Capital Market expectations. It commands it undervalued approach to it. Shifting internationally, we do think a fair amount of the quantitative easing and lower rates are being priced into those assets. You have seen a large shift in yields overseas, specifically roughlyan 10years, 39, 40 basis points. They have shifted the last several months from five basis points to 39, 40 basis points. A lot of that is being priced in. It will be a challenge as to whether they can deliver in september on the action they are talking to. Guy going to be interesting to see how you trade around that. High yield, that will be an interesting move in itself is a stick around. Fargo Investment Institute cohead of fixedincome strategy is going to stick with us. Be sure to tune in to Bloomberg Television as well. We will have lots more coverage on the fed. Wednesday, 2 00 p. M. New york, 7 00 p. M. London, 2 00 a. M. If you are up in hong kong. Lets get an update on the first word news. Here is kailey leinz. Kailey President Trump out of china for not being willing to buy more u. S. Farm products. He says that beijing continues to rip off the u. S. The president sent to those tweets not long after a toplevel delegation arrived in china to begin negotiations. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low. It is rounded to of the democratic president ial debates. 20 president ial hopefuls will square off in cnn for tomorrow will feature a rematch between former Vice President joe biden and senator kamala harris. Harris moved up in the polls after attacking biden on racerelated issues in the first debate. According to the associated toss, the agency will want modern Flight Systems are vulnerable to hacking. And british Prime MinisterBoris Johnson is hinting there may be no president negotiations with the European Union before the october 31 deadline. The threat of a nodeal divorce with the eu has sent accounts falling. Johnson will make the case for his brexit strategy. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I kailey leinz. This is bloomberg. Taylor . Taylor thanks, kailey. Coming up, a Semiconductor Company plans to continue to expand into china. We will hear from the ceo this hour. This is bloomberg. Taylor live from new york, im taylor riggs. Guy from london, i am guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Here with the details is emma chandra. Equities, trade tensions really weighing on the u. S. Indices after the president tweeted a number of times this morning citing what he called the problems with china. That said things off to a bit of a bad start in the u. S. , also weighing a little bit over here in europe. We are in the middle of corporate earnings season in the u. S. Second busiest day for corporate earnings. Mixed bag on both sides of the atlantic. Here in london we are watching the pound falling for a fourth straight day,. 8 , following a 1. 3 drop yesterday. It is breached the key level of support. Chart showing sterling versus a basket of currencies that goes back to 2005. If you look at this red spot here, and see we are at an alltime low for sterling when you look at it through this metric. A few big hitters here in europe. Centrica, down 16 , having its worst ever day in trading. Amorgan calling its earnings litany of negatives. Bayer also falling today. Analysts and investors not liking the outlook there. More u. S. Plaintiffs are filing suit with relation to the roundup weedkiller. Lets move on and take a look at what is going on in the u. S. Another big earnings mover is under armour. Falling 50 , having the worst day in 2. 5 years. Taylor still with us is the wells fargo cohead of Global Fixed Income strategy. We have been talking about the inverted yield curve. Here is the issue, we are negative two basis points on the threemonth 10year. 2000, 77 basis points. 2006, 60 basis points. Does this concern u. S. Much . Concern you as much . Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. We have an affair it has to invert by 25 basis points or more for to be statistically significant happen for a fourweek period of time. 110year, any one of those could be significant for us. Us, it fosters nongrowth behavior. What it tells people is to just stay in cash. That is nongrowth behavior. It leads to that recession. That is something we are concerned about. Taylor talking about on growth behavior, we pitted to die in y inon and pivot to gu london and the brexit. What can carney do . George he is in a challenging situation. He does not know necessarily what will happen with brexit. Right now it has been a challenging time for them. I am not sure they want to be preemptive. We think they will be sitting more on the sidelines and use more guidance rather than action at this point to start easing rates there. They want to preserve as much as they can for the challenges as they come. Points on the u. K. 10year deal, does that yields go higher or lower in the event of a no deal brexit . George right now it will be a riskoff event. You will see rates go lower here. You are seeing that globally, guy. Like we talked about before in you are seeing it in japan, you are seeing it here in the u. S. As you see more risk, off the table, it will go into the bond market. You have seen that play out this year. There was more risk of challenges with brexit, you will see rates go down domestically in the ok in the u. K. Guy see the danger of a bit like the b2b market, when things go wrong, rates go higher . George you might see potentially a little bit more of u. K. Government rallying a little bit, but with the spread product gapping out a little bit. I would be a riskoff event and more in line with our expectation. Brexit,ove with a hard as it seems it is moving towards. Guy in terms of is there a Ripple Effect that comes office . Brexit, what hard would you expect to see in bunds, btps . Is there a common separate drop in trade . George not necessarily to the manager you might think, because they have rally to so much already. Some of that might have been priced in, or it seems like it has been priced in. We would expect to see government sovereign credit to rally a little bit and the other credits to back up just a little bit. It is one of the reason why we recently moved off of our credit we just recently moved to underrate. You are not seeing as much value there. We just dont see as much of value, and more importantly, we see the risk of fact we are talking about moving towards the hard brexit. This is certainly not the place you want to be. Guy thank you for your time today. We genuinely appreciate it. Wells Fargo Investment Institute cohead of global fixedincome strategy. What is coming up for you . Our exclusive interview with huaweis chairman. He weighs in on how the government is coping how the company is coping. This is bloomberg. Taylor live from new york, i am taylor riggs. Guy and from london, i am guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. It is time for a bloomberg was of. Exclusive. Sales growth at huawei are slumping as the sanctions start to bite. They discussed trade talks with the u. S. And the worlds two biggest economies. U. S. Dont know when the will make a decision on android ,nd when the decision will come so we have to make preparations for our products. We will evaluate our strategy for the overseas market. If we are not able to use android for the new smartphones, we have the ability to develop our own operating system and ecosystem to become the basis of our services to the customers. Give us a sense of how fundamental u. S. Had to change your supply chains to mitigate some of the pressures. Have you completed those changes, or are there more to be done . Liang the entity put into place by the u. S. Was disruptive to our supply chain, as we had already made plans to use components from the u. S. For a business. But u. S. Supplies suddenly stopped supplying us. We had to make adjustments to our supply chain, including a process or purchasing, manufacturing, and delivering products. We will do the adjustments to the supply chain. We will change to others place and use our own chips for the core components. I think the damage to the u. S. Suppliers is even bigger than it is to huawei. We will have to increase our workload and manage continuity internally. But the damage to the u. S. Suppliers direct, as they lose a customer. From theemove huawei listing that would be a solution. What impact are you seeing for demand for your 5g agreement given the u. S. Pressure campaign on some of its allies around the world to block access to huawei . Liang although the u. S. Has been launching a Campaign Among its allies, it is up to each country to decide i ts one is based on its own development demands, tillage medication demands telecommunication demands, and carry infrastructure to mental. There might be impact in places like australia but there are others were willing to work with huawei. Guy that was the huawei chairman in an exclusive interview conducted by bloombergs tom mackenzie. Taylor time for the biggest business stories in the news right now. Procter gamble reported its best quarter of organic sales in more than a decade. Consumersped up snapped up beauty and Health Care Products in particular. Bp buck to the china disappointing oil and gas earnings. The British Company beat expectations and increase cash flow in the second quarter. Higher production at bp offset the effects of lower energy prices. That is your business flash. Still ahead, all about the democratic president ial debates. This is bloomberg. Taylor live from new york, i am taylor riggs. Guy from london, i am guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Lets get a first word news update. Kailey leinz. Kailey and mexico, president Lopez Obrador is calling on the central bank to lower rates. He spoke to John Mickelthwait in his first interview with International Media since taking office. Obrador more cautious about inflation. This is not a bad thing, no. Is not the wrong thing to do. Im not saying that. Its important to lower the rates to encourage growth. Lopez obrador says that President Trump has toned down his rhetoric against mexicans. The bank of japan said it is more positive about adding monetary stimulus. The governor kept the policy unchanged despite trimming inflation forecast. He added a phrase to the statement saying that the boj were not hesitate to do more if needed. The boj is watching to see if the fed cuts Interest Rates tomorrow for the First Time Since 2000. The Foreign Ministry of china says that the hong kong unrest is the creation of the u. S. A spokesperson says that some of the demonstrators look american and waved u. S. Like. The Education Department reportedly is looking into a controversial Financial Aid tactic. Oakland to the wall street journal, according to the wall street journal, some parents have transfer guardianship to relatives and friends. Only the childs earnings would be considered in that case. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am kailey leinz. This is bloomber