Conversation, lets talk about where the pound has gone today. Initially it fell this morning, that was on the bank of england, one of the hawks turning more dovish. The pound then rose on the news coming through that Boris Johnson had won the leadership conference. Since then we have seen a small fate in that initial rally. The pound is now trading down against the dollar on the day, trading at 1. 24. Lets talk about what we have seen in the markets. For equity markets around the world today. What we are also interesting is quite a strong rally for the sector around europe. Good news coming through from the supply chain. Chinesealso seen the taking a big stake in daimler overnight. Bmw rising on an upgrade as well from morgan stanley. We are seeing weakness in the single currency ahead of the ecb thursday. Down by. 4 . Lets get back to our top story, Boris Johnson is going to succeed theresa may as the u. K. s next Prime Minister. This after a beat jeremy hunt in a landslide victory. He will take the reins of the country at home and abroad. In his speech following the announcement, this is what he had to say about the most pressing issues facing britain right now. I say to all the doubters, we are going to energize the country, we are going to get brexit done, take advantage of all the opportunities and do this in a spirit of can do. We will believe in ourselves and like a slumbering giant, we will selfoff the negativity and doubt. Guy Boris Johnson from a little while ago. We are joined now by the joint executive secretary of the 1992 committee, which ran the process , putting Boris Johnson where he is now. 100 days until halloween. Johnsonsntil boris selfimposed deadline for the britain to exit the eu. Will it be with a deal or without a deal . Byhe has to get us out october 31, that was his main promise. That is why i believe you got two thirds of the conservative member party voting for him. I know a lot of people that voted him because he was definite about when we would leave. Jeremy hunt, it could be october or longer than that. We have had three years of dithering. I also believe he wants to get us out with a deal. If you think we have a 95 billion pound deficit with the European Union we love buying german cars, french champagne, food and all sorts of stuff that deficit is in their interest to do a deal. I know they have played hardball up to now but they have to learn, theresa mays Withdrawal Agreement is dead. She will be replaced around 5 00 u. K. Time with Boris Johnson as our new Prime Minister. Today, theis Said Campaign is over, the work begins. Guy if im looking at the other side of the channel, what do we do with the irish backstop . In order for it to happen from the u. K. Perspective, the irish backstop has to go. The eu says that will not happen. How do we resolve the crisis . Backdropis right, the backstop has to go. 50 years ago, we put a person on the moon. Are you saying that in that poem two of time, technology is not sufficient that there could be other ways to facilitate the flow of goods between Northern Ireland and ireland using technology, using camera technology, manifests, trusted trading schemes. Up till now there was no interest in the European Union to buy into any of that because they thought they were wedded to the Withdrawal Agreement that theresa had signed up to. Three times to try to get it through the house of commons. Three times she failed. It cost her her job. There is not a chance boris will go over those old mistakes that cost to reason her job. They just have to be imaginative about it. Onmay be multiple deals things like eu Citizens Rights in the united kingdom, eu Citizens Rights, making sure they can go back and forth. All of this can be done in the meantime. The only thing that did pass parliament was the compromise which was basically, we leave and Start Talking about the future trading agreement with the European Union. Part of that is the phone conversation that boris will have either tonight or tomorrow with donald trump. Donald trump want to do a deal with the united kingdom, and that could be greatly rich for boris when he starts to talk about the future trading relationship with the European Union. Vonnie europe says it has already painstakingly negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement and will not renegotiate. Why would it be in europes interest to agree to Boris Johnsons request . It is not just agreeing to his request, but it is taking part in negotiations. Ry times brussels says no teresa came back and said brussels says no, so we cannot do that. We cannot get rid of the backstop. That is not a negotiation. That cost theresa her job in the end. I believe the change between theresa may and Boris Johnson, is gores campaign for brexit, believe in the mission. Theresa never did. She saw brexit as an absolute catastrophe that needed mitigating. That is why we are where we are. Boris believes in brexit and he wants to get on with the job. As soon as the European Union realizes how determined he is, and is prepared to walk away without a deal, i think they will want to do a deal. Vonnie facing the sun defiant leaders in brussels and proeu members in parliament, will he have to call a general election . What makes you so sure he can get it done . Nigel because he believes in the mission. Interest its in the of the European Union and us to get a deal. A 95 billion pound deficit with the European Union. You asked if there would be an early general election. Under the fixed Term Parliament in, the next election is due two years. I believe that we will be here in 12 months talking about the prospect of the conservatives winning the next election. We talk about the 100 days. Boris will want to prove it is not just about delivering brexit but also about delivering extra police on the streets of the u. K. , delivering on the economy. On the public services, education, health, to make sure money is going into those areas. Is what everyone is focusing on at the moment. Will want to get brexit sorted so that he can focus on the domestic agenda which is absolutely necessary for the united kingdom. Guy we will leave it there, thank you, nigel evans. Joint executive secretary of the 1922 committee. Lets carry on the conversation, we are joined now by mark garnett. Lets get your take on this. Ubs thinks there is a 50 50 chance we get a new deal brexit. Does that number sound about right to you . That sounds about right. Obviously, mr. Johnson is determined it should be passed as a negotiating stance of britain. The big problem is whether parliament will allow him to show the eu that that negotiating tactic is going to remain on the table. Parliament could try to fort him thwart him. Not really a betting proposition, but even so, given there are so many possible scenarios, that one has become because of mr. Johnson becoming leader of the party, Prime Minister tomorrow. Just hearing an expectation among some mps that we will see a general election within the next 12 months. Does that come before or after october 31 . Again, this is a question on how parliament reacts to mr. Johnson and his approach to negotiations. There is always the possibility under the fixed Term Parliament act that mr. Evans mentioned, that the house of commons will vote no confidence in mr. Johnson. If a new government cannot be formed, there will be a general election forced on mr. Johnson. The other possibility is, if mr. Johnson embarks on his negotiations and finds the eu is completely immovable, his final card the people have been resisted by parliament it is time to change parliament. That would be a desperate gamble. Even so, it is likely that he will find the present parliament very obstructive, therefore, upon a solution is to change the parliament. The conservative party has final mr. Johnson on that card in the long game of brexit. They think he is popular enough outside of their party to deliver them in certain circumstances a general election victory. It could be that, rather than a no deal brexit without a general election, that that is the scenario britain faces. Libdems now play a role that could be an important one . If i was joe swensen, i would be taking my own election as leader of the party, celebrating the circumstances of the victory rather more than mr. Johnson would be celebrating his. If things go as they are, you could certainly see the libdems to be wellplaced to take votes from disillusioned conservatives, of whom there will be a lot. Mr. Johnson got 66 of the voters. That is an electorate in which he is the most popular in the country. If that fan club of mr. Johnson is still divided, and that means mr. Johnsons position is nowhere near as strong as his supporters are trying to make up. Flirting with the liberal democrats but also labor is in such a mess, lots of people thinking that a vote for the libdems is the best way to prevent brexit. Rseir world even be some leave who would vote for the libdems. Libdems are in a position that happens to them once in a decade, where they may even be wondering if they could become the Majority Party in britain. Everything is so uncertain. A party that looked dead five years ago is now rising from the ashes and potentially has an awful lot of games to pick up. Vonnie resignations already coming in, promises of more in the tory party. Apparently Boris Johnson only has a working majority of two. Parliament leaves or vacation in two days. What do the likes of Jeremy Corbyn do in the weeks before september 3 when parliament returns, while Boris Johnson is in europe trying to get an agreement from various leaders . The focus has to be at home for the other party leaders. Mr. Corbyn at the moment has difficulties within his own party, even before he starts to try to persuade the British Public that he has a workable position on brexit. To temptation for the tories call an early general election is much greater because mr. Corbyn, in the party, a certain amount of turmoil, seats are vulnerable in the north. Comes out even more strongly for remain. Conservatives should be worried about the liberal democrats. They are normally good at picking up disillusioned tories, but the conservative party, the less worried they have right now is the labour party, unless they decide to turn to a more moderate figure and asked mr. Corbyn to stand down in the interest of the party. When this everchanging situation could take a twist. Corbyns stand, mr. Brexit policy is lasting on his mind. Guy we are going to leave it there, mark. Thank you. From Lancaster University where he is a professor of politics. Lets speak to another professor of politics here in westminster. A wellknown pollster here in the u. K. What does the arrival of Boris Johnson actually change . Immediately, frankly, nothing. He faces the same problem as theresa may which is how to find a deal that is acceptable to the European Union and the house of commons behind us. Eluded something that the current Prime Minister. Given the house of commons behind us does not seem to be keen on the idea of no deal, but ideas about how hard or soft the brexit should be, and given the European Union in public is reluctant to reopen the withdrawal treaty that mrs. May negotiated, to that extent it does not change much. Haveot the conservatives about mr. Johnson is that he is particularly popular amongst brexit party supporters. At the moment he inherits a party that is in deep trouble in the polls. Labour is in trouble but so are the conservatives. Are breathingats down their neck. What we will be looking for now is whether there is any evidence in the polls in early august that with mr. Johnson the leader of the conservative party, those who are voting for brexit now will go over to the conservatives. That he will not a, we are not ,a, going to switch back to the conservatives until you deliver brexit, past the difficult European Union, as we just said. And it may also be the case that mr. Johnson as the conservative leader is priced into the polls. We have already seen some movement to the conservative party, so maybe more to come. Vonnie we just spoke with nigel evans and he seems to suggest or say outright that Boris Johnson believes in brexit more than theresa may did and that is why he will succeed by october 31. What does believing in something actually translate to in europe, whoou are a european mep, has over the years helped to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement . Is believed will have a amongn amount of cache the hard brexiteers, the European Research group, the group that was responsible for mrs. Mays inability to get the deal through the house of commons. Given that mr. Johnson is one of them, incoming and saying i know this is not perfect but we have to take what we have got in order to get brexit over the line, that is where it could make a difference. Is it going to make a difference to the stance taken by the European Union . Unless mr. Johnson can demonstrate he has managed to get his party behind him. Then maybe the European Union might be willing to give him an inch to get things across the line. Will it help him with the opposition parties in the house of commons . No, not at all. To that extent at least, yes, the fact that he is a leaver helps, but will not help them. Ith the Opposition Party above all, it may not help him with the remainders inside the conservative party who are opposed to him. Guy does Boris Johnson had to pick sides . Does he have to pick a side that is United States on trade, iran, huawei, or the European Union . Is this binary . John mr. Johnson will want to avoid that binary choice. The vision of brexiteers is they want to negotiate free trade with the u. S. And have a freetrade deal with the European Union. You might say they want to have their cake and eat it. The choice mr. Johnson may will be facing in the next few weeks is whether he will risk going for a no deal, or if you cannot get a deal pass the European Union, or will he have to ask for an extension . If mr. Johnson manages to negotiate a deal by the end of october, we are not leaving. We have to get legislation through the house of commons. His determination that he is a leaver will not speed up the timetable. Guy thank you for coming to see us, Professor John curtice. Vonnie some breaking news on the song. Cutting more than 10,000 jobs globally. It cites identified sources. Wassun was not nissan not everyon available for inter. Cutting 10,000 jobs globally. 10,000 out of 140,000. Adrs in the u. S. Up half a percent. This is bloomberg. Vonnie lets get a check on the markets on this tuesday session. We have been looking at up markets but now we have mixed markets. The s p 500 up slightly on the news of the debt deal. In london, in europe, bigger gains. The ftse 100 up. 7 . As borislso up, this johnson is set to become the next Prime Minister. Volatility swinging to the downside as Boris Johnson promises to renegotiate a new brexit deal. Helping the s p 500, lots of earnings winners, cocacola, hasbro. Both of those Companies Beat bank of america, being held by higher yields. Stanley black decker also putting up a strong quarter. Vonnie President Trump announcing that bipartisan deal to suspend the debt ceiling and boost spending levels for two years, averting a payment default. The president is calling the deal a real compromise and is urging congress to pass it before both chambers go on recess. To take us through the bill, we are joined by our congressional reporter anna edgerton. Both sides are claiming this is a win. What did each side get . Anna a lot of for both sides you like. Democrats like that there will be more domestic spending for their priorities. Republicans are happy about increased military spending and also getting that spending nail down on time, so the pentagon has more certainty to plan for the year ahead. All sides excited about raising the debt limit, putting a closed payment that was due in september, the first risk of missing a payment for the u. S. Treasury. There is some relief that the deal looks like it will get done. It does still need to be passed by congress. We have heard some skirmishes of dissatisfaction from a few lawmakers but it looks like everyone is ready to vote or the deal, make sure we get the situation resolved. Vonnie how to get the fiscal hawks on board . Are they necessary . At about a trillion dollars. Anna there are not many fiscal hawks left. There have been a few points where we have seen that, one was the this massive tax bill republicans passed in 2017, which will ultimately cost the United States more than the spending increases have thus far. When it comes to the deficit, we have seen both democrats and repu