Shery Narendra Modi under pressure to make good on his promises in fridays budget. Happy july 4. U. S. Stock and bond markets closed on the Independence Day holiday. Lets see how things are shaping up for the asian market. Sophie tgif here in asia and happy fourth to our american friends. Here in wellington, kiwi stocks opening higher by. 1 . We could be looking at a muted start. Samsung earnings day, and we could be looking to extend gains after being boosted by. Emiconductor suppliers in tokyo, we could see potential at thes for the nikkei end of a choppy week. Tvs is the latest to downgrade japanese equities. Paul thanks very much. Lets get to first word news now with selina wang. Na brexit cheerleader Boris Johnson has told the conservative Party Campaign split forat the brussels is key. He warned failure to deliver brexit could split the nation apart. A poll said tory members would choose brexit even if it meant breaking up the united kingdom. British marines have seized and Iranian Oil Tanker suspected of carrying fuel to syria in violations of u. S. And eu sanctions. The ship was halted off gibraltar at washingtons request. Iran responded by summoning the British Ambassador to explain. India will release its budget later with the government saying it expects Economic Growth to rebound from a fiveyear low. The finance ministry projects real gdp from the fiscal year from april 1 to hit 7 with upside and Downside Risks evenly balanced. The ministrys Economic Survey says indias political stability should help drive Growth Without undermining deficit goals. Thef the producers of wolf of wall street has been charges. On corruption settlementeached a with the Justice Department over claims it financed the film with 1mdb money. And it is the end of an era for one of the most disrespectful publications out there. Mad magazine is coming off the newsstands after a run of 67 years. The satirical comic will stop releasing new material and concentrate on selling vintage content through specialized stores. Led by alfred newman, mad poke fun at people in power and pushed the boundaries of people in power. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by mother 2700 journalists and analysts from within 120 countries. Back to you. Investors will be watching out for crucial u. S. Jobs report news friday. Economists surveyed by bloomberg forecast nonfarm employment grows by 160,000 in june, an unexpectedly mays weak 75 thousand gain. Looking at the unemployment rate, it is projected to remain percent. Low of 3. 6 our next guest says the markets big focus has been on liquidity and the push across the curve to. Isks always great having you with us. The last time the jobs report felt on july 5 was july 14 and we had some fireworks. We had some fireworks. Were talking about the 10year yield jumping about a quarter point. Will bond traders be able to rest easy on this holiday week . Some of them will be off, of course, but the market has its , and they have made up their mind about what will happen here. The question is will this nonfarm payrolls number change that script . Its going to have to be an absolute blockbuster, and epic number. 160. Onsensus is the 12month averages closer to 190. They will need to see something excited. 130 to get the number in line with consensus probably delivers what the market wants to see. If we get a really strong number, i think risk could really come off the table and that would be probably a bad outcome for markets more generally, but i think a number in line with consensus still for july. Shery were already seeing equity numbers at record highs. Were seeing the s p 500, the dow, at record numbers. Even in australia, closing at a high that we have not seen since 2007. What will it take for Central Banks to be able to come to the rescue and do something for these levels to be sustained . Choice at really no the moment to be in anything else but risky assets. It has been very well documented that we got Something Like 25 of all global bonds out there in the secondary market of trading with the negative yield. Trading at the lowest since 2018. There has been this pushed into risk and you have the current earnings shield in the s p well. Ver 300 basis points anna straley, the mecca effectively of yields, trading at one of the highest levels we seen in terms of that yield differential. Weve been pushed into that situation. Markets will continue buying stocks in my opinion. You have the systematic players out there, the rulebased funds. They have obviously been very much in these markets, not just discretionary players, and i think that will continue to be the case unless we start to believe that the Economic Situation slows down to the point where we cannot believe that centralbank action is going to work and we are nowhere near that point at the moment, or we believe the rate pricing that is in the moment and what is across the swaps curve is actually incorrect in week genuinely start to question that journey, and i dont see any reason why we should at the moment. At that moment, liquidity, the flattening yield curve suggest we continue to stay in equities for now. Paul you say investors really dont have a choice at the moment. If you are looking for you, youve got to file into equities. We see a real divergence here. To borrow a line from a guest we had on yesterday, we have equities pricing into heaven, at we have that white line the bottom, Global Manufacturing pmis starting to do. Are equities do for a correction . That divergence is caused because of liquidity. That is the central focus. The correction comes when we start to question, you know, what is being priced in. The Market Pricing in we get a into 150 ond 140 the fed funds rate. Anna straley, you have the market saying there is probably an argument when we get down to 50 basis points, where we get down to 75 basis points. If that gets questioned, this divergence is questioned effectively and that is what causes that issue. You had the s p trading just over 17 times consensus. Riskyouve got the equity premier, it has obviously fallen and quiteply volatility across the market, very subdued across the moment, you are going to pay up. The other situation is that the positioning in the markets is not overly stretched. You can have a look at optionality. You can have a look at the traders report, traders futures, net long contracts. I dont think positioning in equity markets is overly stretched. You have this huge divergence, but that is just formed by liquidity and the fact that we have such a bond yield which has pushed people into equity markets. Equity is a function of what you are seeing in fixed income. Paul is it wise to be increasing and outpatient of gold at the moment, and is that what we are seeing, fear . I would not necessarily safe fear. I would say gold and bitcoin, they are doing the same thing effectively, and that is the function that they have a strong correlation with the december fed funds rate, for example, if you look at the yield we have seen their, there is a strong inverse correlation we have been seeing. I guess there is also a strong correlation between this negative yielding debt. 25 of outstanding bonds or 13. 4 trillion of outstanding bonds. People obviously look at gold as applied on real rates, but i think people are looking at the idea that we will have this clear path of centralbank easing. We will see the ecb probably reenact its Balance Sheet. That way the Balance Sheet is expanding but probably going to be asset Balance Sheet in september. The bank of japan will have to take rates lower and there will be a bigger discussion like you have in australia where we may see the governor or centralbank at some stage talk more actively about residential mortgagebacked security purchases since the cash rate does not necessarily do what it needs to do. I think gold has been a really big hedge against all of those factors. The old cliche is something we have been advocating for some time in a think the allocation could be taken up a little bit there. Shery what happens if you see the u. S. Dollar strengthening . Not just the fed trying to ease at the moment, but every other centralbank out there. Has beens why gold working really well as well. The idea that can you genuinely pick a g10 currencies that you say thats really attractive right now . I think you can and i think gold has been working in a pretty shabby looking neighborhood, to be honest, but the idea as well that donald trump has been trying to talk down the currency that mayes gone past, have caused a cycle reaction, but i think were getting to the point where the u. S. Dollar is going to slowly grind down. Currency trading is not a simple game, but at the same time, i think if we can take it back to a more some plastic stance, if the Federal Reserve can open the door to a rate cut in july, adding were looking at 25 basis points, a core number in the nonfarm payrolls number, opens , despitebasis points what weve been hearing, so i think you get a number anywhere near what we got last night, then we open up 50 basis points and that, i think it would cause a bearish trend in the u. S. Dollar, which of course i think is what the world needs right now. Paul please do stay with us. Plenty more in a moment, but i want to get across some breaking news at the moment. Offering brewing shares for its ipo, something we are watching. This price range would represented market value of up to 64 billion for budweiser brewing, putting it on par with heineken. Also enables acquisitions by creating a local champion. Ab inbev shares rising 1. 7 earlier this week in brussels, 47that ipo range 40 to hong kong pretty much as expected. As mentioned, we will have more with chris weston just ahead. What Scott Morrisons tax win means for the company. Shery Samsung Electronics has buffeted by weeks chip demand. We will do a full health check. This is bloomberg. Paul you are watching daybreak australia. Australian Prime MinisterScott Morrison secure the most sweeping changes to taxes in more than a decade, delivering a major victory to his newly elected government and injecting stimulus into a slowly slowing economy. Bring 110 million in income tax relief to workers. The pepper stone head of Research Still with us in melbourne. 158 billion worth of australian dollars worth of tax 2024coming between now and , 2025. How important is this for the us trillion economy and the rba, taking all the heavy lifting away from it . Welcome by a to be lot of people, especially if you are in that 60,000 to 90,000 aussie bracket. If you are earning put a high runnings, that does not really kick in for a number of years, for a five years. With it actually deliver a sugar hit . I suspect not. When you have levels the way they are in australia, its probably going to be going back to financing debt, so i do not expect this to be a sugar hit to the economy. Of course its going to be welcomed, but you are not going to see retail spending and Discretionary Spending ramp up as a result. Once this is all priced in, it may find support, but i do not think it is going to change the cap of the reserve bank in any capacity. When it can do is if youre looking at the expected surplus Going Forward is used some of those funds for infrastructure and definitely some scope for a big Infrastructure Project coming through, and that will create gdp and jobs, and when we start seeing that roll down, that could be more of a sugar hit, but is currency traders and rates traders, we want something to happen immediately, and that is just not going to be the case. The question is when is the next rate cut from the reserve rank . Cut may be some time away. Typically the bank goes twice and waits around. What are your expectations . Do you think they will move again . Lets have a look at the next employment number and see how that plays. We will have to see what happened to the Federal Reserve. We are getting into an environment where the ecb, certainly looking at what happens to the fed and may react to what the fed do and that is where we will get that titfortat situation. My base case at the moment as we get another rate cut and we get that in november, which is pretty much in line with the rates pricing. If you look a cash rate futures, they are pricing about a 20 chance in november. We know the rba are they dont want to, but they will ease again if the situation warrants to continue that economic expansion, and our estimate is that comes through in november. The market will be a little bit rattled, actually, if we saw a third in a row, but november seems a eating time. Going back to that package for a second, we are hearing from analysts that only 3 of that 10year taxcut package will kick in through june of next year. How problematic is this if you are trying to shore up the economy, and what sector should it go to first . If you take a step back, we are going to see downgrades from the reserve bank. Thats going to be another growthon, not the first downgrade you seen over the last couple of years, some fairly pudgy downgrades because that does open the door for another rate cut coming through. In this situation, we need retail sales, we need that discretionary sector to really bubble along. That is why that is where they will try to target the consumer, get that money going back into the real economy, so i think if you can make people other situation is really we have to focus on housing here in australia. We are just a leverage play on housing. One of the things we have seen is the idea that banks now are cutting variable rates more aggressively. They are trying to stoke the property space on the investment side and that will, i think, have a bigger impact on the real economy. When you are looking at the feedback loop the twin real assets and how people feel, they would be much better off trying to get the real assets, stoking the idea people are feeling better about their domestic situation, the more we will see from income tax cuts, thats where you will get that Discretionary Spending, so i think they need to target the Property Market quite aggressively. Shery always great talking to you and you can get a roundup of stories that you need to know to get your day going on the bloomberg terminal. This is bloomberg. Mberg. Shery samsung reports are earnings later today at the and sluggish that saw more korean export data. Lets discuss samsungs likely performance. Could it be as bad as the first . Sophie indicators are showing perhaps similar performance as we saw at the start of the year. Pulling up this war to show you some of that outlook, we could , andamsung come in Bloomberg Intelligence penciling in a 60 yearly drop in operating profit as we see that ongoing decline in memory chip prices persisting, but in the grand scheme of things, samsung may have outperformed smaller chip rivals that were more heavily exposed to huawei. Samsung was able to snag more market share. Paul we have also had japan impose export restrictions that we have been reporting. How is that going to affect samsung . Ishie samsung has said it reviewing measures to deal with the japanese move. Bloomberg intelligence does not recommend will be much in the in the longterm when it comes to restrictions from japan. There will be initial slowdown when it comes to wafer fabrication, but eventually, the smaller korean suppliers to samsung are seen coming in to fill that gap and that prospect did see a group of korean suppliers surge. Paul thanks very much. Lets get a quick check now of the latest business flash headlines. Deutsche bank job cuts in the u. S. Said to go far beyond equities and Interest Rate derivatives trading. Expects itsthe bank latest Restructuring Plan to be accepted over the weekend with u. S. Staff informed of job losses for monday. Poised to adopt sweeping changes that could see as many as 20,000 employees lose their jobs worldwide. The board of a german Lighting Company says it supports a takeover bid from bain capital in the carlyle toup who have teamed up offer 35 euros per share. The board says it will recommend shareholders accept the offer. The firm has struggled since it was spun off as a Standalone Company in 2013. Has an indian Court Approved a 6 million purchase of a bankrupt steel corporation. They order the proceeds of the deal must be shared fairly. The decision can still be challenged in indias top court, but it paves the way to dashboard to become the nations fourth the just producer. Up next, it is a budget day in india on the back of forecast growth to rebound. We will have details and analysis in a moment. This is bloomberg. Paul its 8 30 a. M. Friday morning here in the day. The market open is 90 minutes away. Calm right now. U. S. Equity markets closed, july 4 holiday, so not a great deal of leadin to push markets one way or the other. Im paul allen in sydney. Shery im in new york where it 6 30 p. M. You are watching daybreak australia. Lets get to first word news selina wang. Parts of california were hit by an earthquake measured at 6. 4. Authorities say there are no reports of damage. It struck at 6 00 a. M. About 240 kilometers northeast of l. A. , the strongest to hit the region in 20 years. Swedes had to the polls with Prime MinisterAlexis Tsipras struggling to defend economic upheaval. Voters like the opponents message that austerity has failed. The bundestag Bank President has ruled himself out of the race to run the imf, narrowing the field