Minutes, it was a steady descent. Volume pretty low and i would expect that would be the case tomorrow before the fed decision on wednesday. Lets dive deeper into the action with our market reporters. Abigail im watching the s p 500. Lets check out a range chart. The first one back in january of 2018 after President Trump slap tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. Trade is a concern. As the fed was tightening and the economy was doing ok, the new concerns about trade, a huge whipsaw down. Not so long ago, there was a pattern in their that tells you investors that bought will down at the bottom were looking to take profits. They are letting it ride a istle bit it is suggested it move it is morphing into an ultimate bayer pattern. Name of thes the game but it looks like the near term to mediumterm could just be bullish for stocks. Emma i was taking a look at the Great British pound, dropping furry fourth consecutive day and hitting a six month low. Over at unicredit saying the cliff edge risk related to a no im sure we would all like to know when that would be but it wont happen until the conservative party has a new leader. Mps in the conservative party in the u. K. Vote again tomorrow. Boris johnson, the arch brexiteer, expect to win despite skipping a tv debate last night. If we look at the volatility markets, traders are expecting some more brinkmanship around the date of the next brings it deadline. And it isis rising trading at around the highs we saw with the last brexit deadline, march 31. Caroline great analysis. We thank you. Lets go back to carla and jason wa, and how to luke ka jason. Luke we are looking at pretty much a rate fall and then nothing else. Two weeks ago, before we got resolution on mexico, if you looked at highyield volatility and demand for hedges, stock volatility demand for hedges, the only thing that really wasnt acting up at the time was stocks. Jason yields continuing to go down. Now, the only place where there is really demand in options for more downside related risk is still in treasury. That seems to be more and more. He story joe i want to talk more about this event decision. There seems to be an emerging consensus that one way or disappoint. Ell will so the market is setting itself up for disappointment. Is there a way for powell to not commit to rate cuts but perhaps give a message that will not royal not roil investors too much . I guess that they will cut and ease additionally as needed is reassuring. Now there is this reflectivity where a strong stop it is holding up pretty well in the face of dovish message takes some of the pressure off of them to do more. Or two orrtainly one three eases through the next six to 12 months will help real estate. They were hiking nine times in the last cycle, you certainly saw that show up in the real estate market. Affordability suffered, existing home sales suffered, now rates are down again. Your seen rates at least start to stabilize. That is one of the sectors that will benefit from lower rates. Scarlet concern over the trade war and how companies are perhaps pulling back on the activity. Where you see evidence that it is hurting the economy . It shows up through uncertain corporate sector. We look at the Small Business optimism index, the quarterly Confidence Index that was released last week, the Morgan Stanley plan, indices, all those are giving you a sense from cfos and ceos of their propensity propensity to hire more people. What you saw after the trump pickup onn 2016 was a the back of what was affected to be deregulation, tax cuts. As those things have morphed into uncertainty, not just using weapon,as an economic but a political weapon, you will see the hit to, the hit hiring. Number, very volatile, the Regional Survey today, but you start to see that in those capex plans. Tech is a really good player in that. There has been a big departure since the financial crisis in terms of what i would call capital like businesses as opposed to capitalintensive says. Tech has been the beneficiary of that capex boom that we saw 20152016 many earnings recession that was caused by the rollover and commodity prices. That will start to show up, those effects of uncertainty. Caroline im going to turn our attention to another sector. Energy up 0. 9 today. What is going on with oil . Were overweight commodities through the first half of the year. Lightened up and our benchmark strategies have very little commodities exposure now. It is a tugofwar with what is going on the supply side, with u. S. Production ramping up, taking share from opec. Opec has had to respond with these supply cuts. On the demand side. Weve seen that with the evidence of slowing data around the world. The percentage of countries in terms of pmi that is less than 50, that is as low as it was as we saw in 2015 now. The twoheaded monster of increasing production in north america and potentially rolling over demand. Joe the fed isnt the only central bank we have on the calendar. I think the boj and boe both coming up. How does the world look from their perspective . Of course we have the big forum going on for the ecb. Boj. Days big from the perspective of other Central Banks, what are their objectives . I think generally worse. The perception is that the fed and other economies are innocent bystanders in the trade war. Easiernse, i think the the fed is, it helps them more with easing policy potentially. With the bank of japan in particular, i think it is particularly ominous that the one place that really put its thumb on the scale of the bond market in terms of cutting volatility by setting the price in the yield, it is you another kind of outlet for something that has been so contained for so long. Luke and jason, thank you both so much. That does it for the closing bell. Romaine bostick stepping in next for whatd you miss . Where the team will look at what look at how the situation in hong kong could be a challenge for xi jinping. This is bloomberg. Caroline heres how the u. S. Stock closed in the green today. The nasdaq outperformed. Joe the question is, whatd you miss . Caroline the hong kong chief executive has stalled extradition legislation but they want a total bill withdrawal. Ecb officials and portugal. Officials head to portugal. The fed looks for other options amidst volatility and political pressure. An expensive esa paper. Expensive piece of paper. An mba degree will cost you, but how much . Hundreds of thousands of protesters flood the streets of hong kong and demonstrations. Executive carrie lam suspended the legislation calling for exhibition extradition from china. Prodemocracy activists weighed in on lams future. Kong being the puppet of beijing, that is the reason we demonstrated five years ago. It is time for us to freely elect the leader of our city. Caroline we want to author we want to welcome the author of red flag. George magnis, he is over the phone with us. You talk about how the leadership is different than the predecessors. How is the angst going to be affecting the confidence of the authority . Will it . That is the question at the moment. The Chinese Government wasnt kind of orchestrating this extradition bill. This was really carrie lams project. I think she thought it would endear her to beijing. There is kind of a taiwanese connection. It had the effect of pulling taiwan into the kind of influence of beijing and greater china. This was her project. It looks like it failed. Obviously, the Chinese Government was pathetic to what you want was sympathetic to what she wanted to do. I think the Chinese Government were kind of acquiescing in that she had to back down. Jinping, probably the biggest climbdown he has had to do since he came to power. He will not be happy about having had to do this. I think with the g20 looming , they had no choice. Her,ne who will replace if she has to step down . George the Chinese Government came out and gave support today but i think that is just to keep her in situ for the time being. Office r term of the term of office of the legislative branch in hong kong goes to next year. I would think that sometime, after a little bit of a hiatus, she would be replaced by someone else. Joe talk to us about some of the other side asked that xi jinping has had lately. He sort of went through a bunch on twitter this morning. Talk about how in your view that difficulties, this just being the latest. George i would say the hong kong issue definitely looks like a climbdown from what would have been a previous decision. That lots of other people have been following look even more like sensitivity. The biggest one i think is the trade war. Xi jinping and his advisors were definitely wrongfooted by the assistance the insistence with which the Trump Administration pursued and prosecuted the trade war last year and since may 10 of this year. This has basically set the Government Back a little bit. There has also been quite a lot of pushback inside china. It is difficult to know exactly where is coming from but we know that former government officials and some academics have been quite vocal about china heading down the wrong path, that the approach to the United States was wrong. You will notice, and lots of people have noticed, that china 2025, chinas signature kind of industrial policy very new era, and that is at the center of disputes with the United States about subsidies, technology transfer, no one really talks about china 2025 anymore, not by name. The rhetoric has been dialed down substantially. Similarly for the belt and road. Inthe belt and road forum april, a different approach to scale and significance by president xi jinping. Caroline we are still seeing the pictures weve gathered over the weekend of the protests. I am interested in what happens with the two systems currently in place and the overall view of where taiwan and hong kong go in their relationship to mainland china. Is it still the focus and these two xi to bring into the mainland, and what would that mean for hong kong as a headquarters of so many Multinational Companies . Withe reuniting taiwan the mainland is clearly a strategic medium to longterm objective. Systemscountry, two kind of mantra really has been shipped away increment , anded away incrementally for aore cumulatively number of years now. Extradition was the last straw really because it kind of made them realize that the encroachment, the legal system whatng kong, has reached the action has called for. Are, iccessful protests suspect the feeling in beijing is that they want to accelerate the whitewashing of the one , to the two systems andnt that it still exists, therefore they would want to speed up the process by which hong kong becomes more integrated into the mainland. Magness that was george of oxford university. Coming up, some Business School students are financing 100,000 for their degree. This is bloomberg. Of ambition. E be one of the fastest ways for aspiring executives to climb the corporate ladder but it is also pricey. Nearly half the students at some of the top schools borrowing at least 100,000 to finance their degree. To discuss, we are joined by bloomberg businessweeks caleb solomon, who was running the bloomberg best bschools mba rankings. When we talk about the student debt crisis, much of it focuses on undergrads or degrees that dont turn out value. We dont focus as much on the bschool side of things but it is significant. We found, at some of the most prestigious schools in the world, students are graduating with 100,000 of debt or more. That includes duke, cornell, chicago university. You ratchet down just slightly, it is almost one third or more at another whole series of prominent schools like m. I. T. s sloan school, wharton, and kellogg. Romaine we know that the schools are expensive, but what is the return on investment . You have to spend money to make money, right . Caleb you do. Our reporter on this story was able to interview a good number of students that graduated from the schools with that sixfigure debt. Roy as roi. I will be out of the workforce for a certain amount of time, how much more when i make when i graduate . At these schools, the average starting salary can be 130,000 a year or more, not counting other things. They thought that it was worthwhile. Caroline would it be more sensible to go abroad . Europe boasts some pretty good Business Schools and it is kind of shorter and cheaper to do it there . Caleb exactly. That is what we found, too. , weything we talked about looked at schools outside of the u. S. India, spain. When you look at those schools, the debt levels are much lower, and that is probably because it is a very different program. Twoyear fulltime program. In europe, they kind of call it a year but it is typically 14 or 16 months and you are out of the workforce for much less time. Caroline maybe it pays to go abroad. It is a great piece. Many should go read it in businessweek. We are looking at the telecom billionaire patrick draghi. He has agreed to buy the auction a 61 premium. , collector. Id art are risingeyond meat again and shortsellers are feeling the squeeze. 534sellers are down million mark to market losses since the ipo last month. 11 atwere up more than one point today. A big week for Central Banks. Jay powell is expected to speak tomorrow and discuss rate cuts. The this is bloomberg. With im Mark Crumpton bloombergs first word news. A white house official said israeli representatives have not been invited to the trump ministrations israelipalestinian peace conference in bahrain next week. They said the meeting will focus on the Economic Vision for the palestinians and not political issues. The palestinians accused the u. S. Of bias toward israel. The European Union said they would wait and wait for scientific reports on irans compliance with a nuclear deal before announcing his response. The eu said it would not speculate on what would happen if tehran veers away from the terms. It would break the stockpile element in the next 10 days. The interest we have is to keep the nuclear deal in place because in this exercise, we never made a mystery out of it. During the last year, it has become increasingly difficult for all to keep the nuclear deal completely implemented. This has been our constant focus as europeans, as the European Union. Mark russias u. N. Ambassador is accusing the United States of destabilizing the middle east by escalating what he calls aggressive accusatory rhetoric and artificially fueling antiiranian sediment antiiranian sentiment. He condemned attacks against tankers during a meeting today and called for an International Investigation to identify the organizers and hold them accountable. The trump ministration has blamed iran for those attacks. World food Program DirectorDavid Beasley said today that seriousy uncovered, diversion of food parco of food. Uponid the houthis agreed more monitoring but has faced roadblocks ever since. The humanitarian situation in yemen is dire. Despite the suffering of 20 million yemenis who dont have enough to eat, we continue to face severe resistance just doing our job to keep people alive. Mark the u. N. Humanitarian chief said that 80 of the yemen population need assistance and protection, including 10 million who rely on food aid to survive. Toronto Police Say Two people have been shot during todays parade for the nba champion raptors. Their injuries are considered serious. Custodye two people in and have recovered firearms. 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter,powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Bonanza it is a banking across the globe. Central bankers at the ecb, japan, and england all set to make decisions this week. In the u. S. , fed chair jay into isaiting weighing in with projections. As always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near are symmetric 2 objective. If we saw a Downside Risk to the outlook, then that would be a factor that will call for a more accommodative policy. Im a little worried about the low inflation rate. Even though it is temporary, that could be a reason for more accommodation. We are seen mixed signals around what is happening in china and europe. We just need to keep being data dependent. It is too soon to make a judgment as to whether we might or might not make an action. I would rather be patient and let events unfold a little more. Joe i want to welcome the bloomberg opinions Senior Editor for markets and a senior reporter. Extraordinary rally we have seen over the past several weeks, long government riskfree bonds fall into the lowest levels around the world. Is there a feeling that it has gone a little too far, too fast . I was going back and looking at how many rate cuts were priced in this year. It was maybe a half a rate cut. Two,ou are pricing in maybe three, maybe even four. Thats a lot for this year. See any sort of propensity for powell to push back on the market . John there certainly is propensity for him to push back. If you look at the fed funds 1, 2, 3, 4ket, any cuts this year is deemed possible by the market, an opinions. Wide set of i think the chances try to narrow the options and pushback are pretty high. As brian says, to give you one illustration of how overdone the rally is, this is the example that a guest from deutsches gave after the show on friday, the ostia the austrian century bond has gained. Lending money to austria for a century. Romaine what could happen over the next century . John the last 100 years were not so great for austria. Anything can happen in 100 years and that doesnt seem to be putting people off. Caroline going long century bonds. Peace also makes clear is the fact that Inflation Expectations have shifted dramatically. What have you heard in terms of how they walk that line . Brian i think that is the real big question. The idea was that fed was focusing on inflation and in