Killing 11 people and wounding seven others. Authorities believe he specifically targeted his victims because they were jewish. President trump goes to el paso, texas, today for his First Campaign rally since novembers midterm. A Trump Campaign advisers says the president sees the el paso rally as less about winning over voters ahead of the 2020 election and more of an opportunity to reshape the debate around the proposed border wall. The rally will be held if you hundred yards from el pasos border fence. Venezuelas oil minister today made a surprise appearance at an energy event in india. Closerrying to secure ties with major crude customers with the opec producers facing harsh actions. He says the u. S. Measures have billion. S country 20 in india is set to emerge in venezuelas preferred customer due to the nations willingness to play for crude pay for crude in cash. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, this is Bloomberg Markets the close. Caroline we are 30 minutes from the end of the trading day. Nasdaq has been the outperforming throughout the day. We are only up a 10th of a percent. Ea has been helping. At one is up almost 5 point today. It seems a downward trend for all the gaming stocks. Red. Ronic arts now turns complete confusion as to the march contract. This should signal a tight supply, but there is no tight supply. Confusion about. Scarlet and of course it comes right before valentines day as well. We are keeping a close eye on the swiss. The japanese market was closed, so very thin liquidity but it seems to have recovered from that. You mentioned how u. S. Markets have seen the gains fade. They opened higher. Dollar, eight Straight Days of gains. The longest stretch in three years. Caroline it really does seem that the dollar is king. Todayother g10 currencies under. Scarlet Morgan Stanley down for a fifth day. This is that the company buy a Stock Plan Administration company at a 43 premium, which is why you see it in canada move up. Caroline lets check in on other key movers. First, tesla. A 450 price target. More stable 2019 next up, nvidia. The price target was cut to 175 a share. Rising in the wake of the company lowering fourthquarter average. Finally, Electronic Arts. It was upgraded to buy from neutral with a 110 price target. The potential of a newly released video game say it could be competitive to fortnite. Red. P 5 , now in the scarlet fortnite raines once again. Walmart has over 4000 stores, 1. 5 million employees, and 380 billion in revenues, and that is just in the u. S. Alone. But the retailer has a tiny problem, its ad business. Here with more is matthew boyle. We had no idea it had an ad business. Matthew target has one. Kroger has what. They need these businesses more than ever because their core Retail Businesses are struggling. They have amazon stealing sales. They have Dollar Stores stealing sales. They need alternative forms of revenue that are much higher margin than selling bananas and avocados. We have all these people going into our stores, all these millions of people going on our website generating all this purchase data. That data is obviously valuable. The eyeballs are valuable to coke and pepsi and unilever and all those guys. At the same time, those big brands are looking for different places to put their marketing dollars. They are falling out of love with the traditional big at agencies ad agencies. Becauserter, a fault clients are shifting money away. A big opportunity but a very littleknown opportunity for walmart and others. Caroline it is becoming more well known to amazon. Amazon sets the dial here. They started to make significant gains in their advertising. Matthew amazon is a big business. It doubled in size last year. 10 billion. For amazon, it is a huge part of their revenue model now. It will not be a 10 billion business for walmart or target anytime soon, but they are casting eyes on amazon, saying they have been taking advantage of the purchase data. Why cant we . Scarlet whyscarlet it makes see scarlet it makes sense why they follow suit. Retailers have tried to do this before. Walmart 20 years ago had its own tv network. Matthew it was the fifth Biggest Network in america. 180 million viewers. Bigger than cheers, the cosby show. They were in walmart so youre in the mood to buy. They put product ads in the tvs in their stores. They were able to generate a little extra money. But of course walmart tv went the way the big networks did. Now they have much more advanced ways to analyze the purchase data. It really is a Second Coming here. Caroline does it get awkward at any point when you go to the highest bidder . Worry, way, it may not not pit one customer i guess the next. They charge them for where they see them on the isle. Matthew exactly. You charge them to get the best shelf space and trade dollars or trade spending. This will be a little different up front. A price per click. Onyou want to get your ad that product page on walmart. Com or kroger. Com, this is what it will cost you guys. A little more up front in that way. But it is something retailers should have been doing more of. They always had this data. It is very valuable. Why not monetize it . Scarlet they are building on a relationship already there. Your story mentions alibaba, which owns an ad agency. Matthew it is interesting that alibaba generates half of their revenue from advertising. You think, how big these things get . They can get quite big indeed. Alibaba a stake in a digital ad company last year. They have been rumored to be interested in china business. Smarter companies are looking at this as something we need to take more advantage of. Caroline and the companies it hurts is wpp, companies that can no longer be the middlemen. It is a great piece. We urge you to go and read it. Matthew boyle covering all things retail. Iphone shipments to china climate as apple struggles to compete with the Worlds Largest smartphone market. Which rival is tightening . This is bloomberg. Lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Two large chinese powers miss payment deadlines. They had been due to return money due to bondholders. Part of a restructured debt payment plan last week. Morgan stanley agrees to buy canadas celine capital in a deal valued at 900 million. Calgarybased company is it will pay a 43 premium. Almost 47es raised billion in the 12 months through june of 2018. That marks a ninth straight year. Andcouncil for advancement support of education says harvard raise the most money. Colombia at stanford also exceeded the 1 billion mark. Caroline now lets talk tech. Apple iphone shipments plummeted in china at the end of 2018, which means the door open for rivals like huawei to take apple down in the smartphone space. Here with more is mark gurman. Your reporting on this company is always a step ahead of the curve, but now we know some of the data collectors are saying it was ugly in china apple was sitting pretty. Mark yes, that is absolutely right. What we are seeing here is very much significant trades in iphone sales in china. A 20 decrease yearoveryear in the Fourth Quarter, so around the decemberjanuary Holiday Season timeframe. Is that is notable double the overall contraction of the market. To be fair to apple, we are seeing a significant contraction of 10 but apples is 20 . They are not the only one impacted. One of the other big chinese automakers besides huawei who is number one at this, point, they reported between 830 and 35 decrease. A 30 to 35 decrease. Scarlet tim cook banked on apple doing well in china. Talk about with these phones offer. It sounds like huawei and others offer cheaper versions of apples phone. Is there any other distinction to their devices over what apple offers . Mark that is prebudget. That is the selling point that is pretty much it. That is the selling point. Something closer to the finish of apples products with a lower price tag. In some cases, some of these phones could be about a third or half the price of an iphone. The difference is with the iphone you will not get as premium a deal. You will not get the customer support, the integration of the hardware, software, services. But when you are getting are tech specs with numbers that you off the page that really impressed the consumers in china. Multiple cameras on the back. You are getting a lot of the flashy features that apple has chosen not to include or market in the same way as the chinese automakers are doing it. Caroline i know it is not as much your area of expertise as apple is, but why is huawei outperforming . Is there any reason why they are favored . Huawei is the hot commodity right now. In many ways, they are the apple of china. People are running after their phones. They seem to be coming out with on a monthly basis now a flashy new device. I wonder if in the western world any of the negative criticism, you see the situation with canada and huawei spurring people in china to support their big phone maker. They have extraordinary backing. They are not only a phone maker. They do plenty of other things as well. They have a giant retail arm as well. Difficult for others to stack up against huawei, just like if you compare it to the u. S. , smaller players like google are really not up to par with apple at this point. Scarlet thank you so much. Expert on all things apple is joining us from los angeles. As we go to break with 15 minutes to go before the market closes, the dow is down a quarter of 1 . Norfolk southern continue to lift by 3. 5 on some initiatives. Caroline from new york, this is bloomberg. Caroline this is countdown to the close. Scarlet joining us at this hour as always is joe weisenthal, but in houston. Joe hi. How are you doing . Scarlet good. How are you . Joe good. Scarlet you would think the overseas gains would have inspired stocks to continue building on those advances. Joe yes, it is surprising. I feel like every day last week we talked about the sort of soso returns for the market. Nothing too special. Waiting for volatility to accelerate in one direction or the other. It seemed like we were going to pick up today because we did see a sea of green overseas but not carrying over in any meaningful way to the u. S. Just sort of mediocre. Another quiet day for u. S. Stocks. Not that carry over like you would have guessed. Scarlet a really mixed bag when i look at the industry sector. Transportation leading the way, up a quarter of 1 . Again back. Caroline oil falling today. Lot. Et but not by a whole not like anything is really moving with a lot of conviction. Media entertainment, you have keeping a close eye. Ea, which has been the outperforming, the best performer on the s p 500 at one point today, the rally fizzled. Scarlet the rally fizzled and you have a bunch of tech hardware. Food beverage and tobacco also declining. When you look at the intraday performance, there is the open higher in the softness throughout the trading day. Caroline nasdaq had been the outperforming. Now lagging to some extent with the s p 500 is. There is a lot of waiting and seeing with the china and u. S. Trade, whether it is the Government Shutdown, a reason to be buying into the stock market. ,e were talking to kyle earlier kyle bass. He said he sees the market eventually going up. Scarlet for now, it is drifting lower except for the s p 500. We are moments away from the close so lets take a look at what has been driving some of the action within the markets, and we will start with lisa. Lisa i wanted to become one with caroline was talking about, Electronic Arts. It is amazing how much the shares bounced around today, at would point climbing to a fourmonth high. Now slightly lower. Lets take a look at the intraday to get a sense of the action. It was rising initially on the expectation of this apex ledges of experts lot fortnite think it could potentially convert. The only problem experts think it could potentially combat fortnite. The only problem is it is free. Was said, a lot of it saying it is about generating enough traffic right now, not necessarily the sale. If you want to flip the board and get a sense of the year to date action of the shares, it is really amazing how volatile they have been. On february 6 after the earnings, the shares plunged the most since 2008 on expectations this could be driven to a pretty negative situation financially as a result of fortnite popularity and the lack thereof of anything Electronic Arts was doing, but now there is hope. Arts to from electronic tesla, shares are higher, up 2. 4 , one of the best performers for the s p 500 and nasdaq. Take a look at the voluble of the 20 day average. Not strong buying power but the reason why the strength, shares to a buy. 14 buys on the street, 15 cells, but at least moving in the right direction. Profits are going in the right direction. The elon musk factor is diminishing. Huge swing on the year between the high and low. 140. Perhaps some of that elon musk factor. Around the profits, take a look at this. The best earnings for 2019, 5. 59. Pretty remarkable considering this company last year have not been profitable. Who knows . Maybe this will power the shares. Romaine thanks. Im taking a look at the u. S. Movies. It is off to a slow start for 2019. Box office sales this weekend falling short of estimates once again, and were seeing that way on the shares of Companies Like cinemark, imax, and a couple of other companies. This was more alarming because we had a huge installment of the latest lego movie that was supposed to anchor the weekend. 2, despite it being the fourth film in the franchise. It only took in 35 million franchise. That was enough for it to be the leader over the weekend, but it was expected to take in 55 million. Two of the other new releases we had this week also came up short. Want was supposed to take a 24 million but only took in 19 million. Cold pursuit, that only took about 10. 8 million, which was also short of estimates. Some analysts are already revising the estimates for the First Quarter for the box office as a whole, expect to drop about 12 for the quarter. That is down from a previous estimate of a drop of 10 . It is facing a tough comparison because remember last february in 2018, we had black panther, which went on to be one of the top grossing movies of all time, taking in more than 1 billion in sales. The movie business could regain lost ground as we get deeper into the season, but they are not expecting any yearoveryear increase in Box Office Take until march 8, when we get the disney film, the next installment of the marvel franchise, which is captain marvel. Caroline thank you. Meanwhile u. S. Stocks, little changed, and therefore, why are we not buying . What are the key risks . That was a question of the day. What are the largest uncertainties for the markets the rest of the First Quarter . For more, lets bring in mike regan. What you worried your basic what did our reader base think . Right now cover, projected to be a 2 drop in earnings. Haveullyear forecasts come down from doubledigit projected growth in the fall to about half of that now, about 5 . What is interesting to me is technology is forecasted to be a major drag on earnings. Semiconductors mostly, but a net negative contributor to earnings this year. It is puzzling to think how can investors get excited about markets where tech earnings will actually be a drag. Obviously we have the tail end of the tax cut behind us now. Thought would get a boost to the market at this time of year was the tax refunds, but we are seeing complaints about people not getting refunds, actually having to pay. To me, it looks like the market in the middle of last week was starting to roll over after that fromndous 16 rally december 24 through the beginning of february. I think it is a good scenario where it is stabilizing power we are flat given the uncertainties we are talking about that people are a little more spooked out. I will be strong dollar in there is another scary thing. Joe speaking of the strong dollar and its affect on earnings, how much of the question of corporate earnings is going to come down to whether we see growth revitalized overseas . Michael i think that is a big part of it obviously. You saw the growth forecasts in europe cut last week. A lot of people putting in germany now, potential weakness in the german economy. Does the u. S. Become a safe haven . I suppose that is possible. But really, that strong dollar is 7 or 8 gain in the dollar cut about 1 earnings growth. The stronger it gets, the what you have to worry about the earnings scenario this year. Scarlet lets bring in jason, the cohead of global asset allocation. He joins us from boston. What do you make for the flaccid market, the fact that there is no followthrough from what we saw in asia and europe . Is it the dollar that is holding us back . Jason i think that is to be expected frankly after we had such a powerful rally at the beginning of the year from extremely oversold, extremely pessimistic conditions. We have moved back into neutral positioning now. I think you get a breather after such a powerful rally. That is pretty normal. We have some convergence. You obviously have some convergence around some of the big round numbers in terms of levels. We have gone through earnings season. We have had a couple of slow news days. People are waiting to see the results of the highlevel trade talks at the end of this week. Caroline what are your views now at the moment . City is basically saying stick with this rally at the moment. Where do you stand . Jason we are still mildly bullish i would say. Positioning has room to get a little bit further extended bullish. We had a pretty it set up pretty good at the beginning of the year. One of the interesting thing thats happened over the last seenonths is we have signals, advance decline volume spike really high. That is usually a bullish indicator and that can last on the order of reminds. Squaring, iftion we get no incremental bad news, obviously we have the fed on hold now and that made this course correction and give it, that was one of the big things that spooked markets in the Fourth Quarter, the fed was about to make a policy mistake and they have taken that off the table now. That sets up for it recently good beginning of this year. We did see markets close mixed. S p and the nasdaq holding onto gains. Surprisingly had such a seller rally over in europe. Lets dive deeper into the action that was underneath the surface. We need to focus on the dollar, posting in eight straight day of gains, the longest winning streak since last june. This is raising a question, why . Some people are saying because the fed has taken a dovish turn, that will encourage other Central Banks around the world to also become dovish. Its going to be a battle of the doves. This is giving strength to the dollar. The problem for dollar bears is theres a chronic shortage of currencies to like. In other words, going back to laundry, if dirty think it comes back to what else are you going to like at a time of great uncertainty, at a time of Global Economic slowing . The u. S. Still looks pretty good. Abigail we have the commodity complex lower, maybe that is what is pressuring the dollar or giving it a tailwind concern that we have the risk asset of the commodity complex trading lower. Over the last year, that is the case, putting and a high over the relative term back in june, leading the Fourth Quarter slide that we saw for stocks. For theecent weakness commodity complex, as the dollar has climbed, we have the commodity complex back below the average,ving suggesting we may see the commodity complex light further. If that happens, it could derail 2019s risk rally. U. S. Equityle the rally appears to be taking a breather, take a look at the equal weighted s p 500 index. By 2. 5utstripping gains Percentage Points on the gear. This gives Smaller Companies the amazon. Apple and its the longest streak weve seen since 2016. Gainersthe five biggest in the s p 500 this year are companies with the market cap up s than 10 billion, zero x xerox and others. It remains to be seen if the equal weighted indexes catching up with the cap weighted index which has trailed since late 2016, but it is giving some folks a little comfort here that when you have broadbased participation it may give another leg to the rally. Market has been given a breath of what to look like and what feels like a quiet market, but a lot is still going on under the surface. Jason is still with us and mike reagan as well. They were trying to gather answers to the question, what is the key risk for the rest of the First Quarter . What is the key risk for this week . We have the shutdown talks and the trade talks in beijing. Talks is a keye one and i would point to the highfrequency macroeconomic data coming out over the next few weeks. We will get better confirmation on what is going on with emerging markets and europe, where growth rolled over a little bit. It is interesting that europe and germany in particular which has been preaching austerity for the last eight years is now starting to talk about tax cuts and needing to do some fiscal stimulus. If we can get those Growth Engine starting to level out around the world, whether japan or europe, and just bottom out, that will go a long way to putting a base into risky assets. You basically anticipated my question, what is the minimum we need to see for risk assets to go higher on the year . Onit just not anything worse the metro front, or do we need to see some positive stimulus acceleration of growth from overseas to make the case that stocks should go higher . Jason i think it is the former, just things not getting worse. In that so in the Fourth Quarter, in addition to pricing in a fed policy mistake, there was obviously the risk of a hard landing in china and emerging markets more generally. As we start to see stability, theres enough items where you can start to point to some green shoots in china, where some of the land stimulus is starting to stabilize things. I think that is enough to take the risk of a hard landing and the risk of global recession off the table for this year and that will be good thing. With relations where they are, positioning still tepid, both those things have somewhere to run for the first half of the year. Mike, what is your viewpoint on how important the chinau. S. Trade talks are this week in terms of any sort of catalyst . We were hearing from jason about trade being an overhang in the market. Mike he makes a great point that stimulus from china operates on a lack effect. You dont see it for several months until afterward. So you cross your fingers and wait for that to show up. Without a doubt, the china trade talks, any sort of hand of good news there and progress almost talks is enough to stabilize the market. S p is up 8 already on the year, about the average a of the index for a full year. So it is not surprising to see it flatten out and triple a bit lower. When thing i keep going back and looking at is the short end of the yield curve, when threemonth treasurys are yielding about 2. 4 . Tot is very competitive risky assets. If you can sleep at night that,g youre getting until those yields come down a little bit, and im natural sure what would cause that to happen, given the supplies a government will have to come up with to find the deficit, that will continue to be very competitive to stocks, until there is a sign of stabilization and return to growth. First quarter with the Government Shutdown and the public works at. So that data will not be the most encouraging. The question is will investors be up to look past it and scapegoat those things, or will it freak people out . Track recordave a of those First Quarter numbers going back a few years. That he thinks Economic Activity should begin to wane on the back half of this year and by middle 2020 we will most likely be in a recession. Take on the outlook for recession . Emily rowland of john hancock finallying us we stopped talking ourselves into one after the gains in january. Jason there are a handful of things we look at that are key forecasters of recession. The first one is the yield curve. Is not meaningfully inverted for any duration of time. T is one where you need to Monetary Policy matters a lot for this shape of the yield curve. With the fed on pause, its not clear it will invert anytime soon. Would be thee absolute economic levels of real policy rates. Real fed funds is barely positive and has only become positive in the Fourth Quarter. It is nowhere near in if the places where it it has started to pinch into growth in previous cycles. As nominal yields rose, we saw in the middle part of last year, housing started to flatten out and rollover a bit. To push the economy into recession. The third thing is gross misallocation of capital. Tech stocks with no sales in 1999 or real estate in 20062000 seven. The chunks of the economy, you dont see evidence of that in the u. S. Economy right now. Mind,hose three things in would we get a recession in two years . Maybe. It doesnt seem like something we need to think about on the near horizon. Joe what would it take to get the fed back in play . Jason i think it would take a spike in wage rose. That is the one thing they are probably paying the most attention to. Now that weve started to tick up in terms of the participation that is the cyclical component that has been missing for a long time. As long as wage growth stays in the range it has been in, 2. 5 3 , with global risks on the table in the way they are and the u. S. Being the only real engine of mobile growth right now, i think the fed can be patient and sit back with no real inflation risk on the horizon. Oryou start to see it uptick wages rise at an accelerating rate, that would be one thing that could get the fed back involved. Caroline we were just hearing from Michael Regan about how attractive bonds are given that lack of risk. Where would you be buying into in the equity market right now . Say 7 all in yield in highyield is even more attractive than cash rates. Companies like ge talk about not eating to borrow anymore for the next 18 months, really focus on paying down debt, you have a lot of companies talking about the need to manage balance sheet, investors clamoring for companies to repair their balance sheets. Those are bullish for credit. Long, highhtly yield, not massively, because of where spreads are right now. As long as we have stable growth around trend and reasonable cash investors aren, pouring back into highyield with deals around 7 . That is certainly an attractive carry trade. Scarlet good stuff. That doesnt for the closing bell and for me. Next is whatd you miss . How Electronic Arts is hoping to take on fortnight with its own gains. This is bloomberg. Caroline were live in bloombergs World Headquarters in new york. Heres how the u. S. Stock market closed in a mixed picture today, energy firm to the downside. Joe the question is, whatd you miss . Caroline President Trump heads to texas to call again for border wall as another Government Shutdown looms. Fortnight its latest game attracts in 10 million users. In the shadow of apple, a contractor finds itself in a building very different from the iphone makers mothership. Breaking news on money gram, reporting earnings right now common in slightly below estimates. Were seeing that take a total take a toll on the shares. Missing the lowest estimate, coming in at one cents a share, they had been looking for . 13 a share. Ourline lets turn attention to washington. Congressional appropriators have until friday to broker of Border Security deal that keeps the government open. For top negotiators met again today. Leaders of the white house saying another Government Shutdown is still a real possibility. Reported joins us from capitol hill with the latest. There seems to be more and more concerned that a deal cannot be struck in time. We are four days away and there is rising concern about the prospect of a Government Shutdown after negotiations stalled this weekend over ocratic demand made to basically to require eyes to deprioritize finding and deporting nonviolent people in the country illegally and focus on von criminals. This is not going over well with the white house. They view it as a green light to let people come into the country and sneak in as long as they dont commit crimes after that. Its a very real impasse and one side are the other has back down in order for there to be a deal. When the Government Shutdown a few weeks ago, there was a view that republicans in congress were uncomfortable with it but that the white house was ok with letting the shutdown linger for a little while. Is it the same view that perhaps President Trump this time around again would not mind a shutdown or even a protracted one . On what the issue is. If it is immigration enforcement, this is a very important cost to the president. Is maybe the sort of thing he decides he can go to the mat on. There is concern among democrats that they are on less firm ground than they were. The country is not sold on a border wall and even less so favors the id more so opposes the idea of a Government Shutdown. The tension beds are more complicated issue. They dont really reach the kitchen table. Acrossnt want to come as being opposed to enforcement generally. They want to make the argument that they would elect to target nonviolent people target filing people which means going easy on nonviolent people. Romaine do we know how involved the white house is in these the president r is leaving it up to congress to work it out . Is more the latter. The chairman of the house and as well as the senate. Congress has been doing most of the negotiating, but the president has been kept in the loop every step of the way. The white house has gradually found itself back into a corner on the issue of negotiating the wall. Democrats have decided we will maybe 3 billion but they want their concerns attached as well. Thanks for that report from capitol hill. Coming up, bathroom lines, broken vending machines, and the fear of termination. You details on apples satellite campus might just shock you. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Were just talking about the concerns of another Government Shutdown, and meanwhile we get an update on the ramifications on ipos. The sec has gotten back to the likes of lyft and uber. The move by the regulator puts the ball back in the companys hands now to be able to go back in terms of where theyre going to progress new dress for review on their ipos. As it stands, given that hopefully we may not have stillr shutdown, lyft is looking at a march or april listing, but of course it depends on whether we get another Government Shutdown. Employednot everyone by apple gets to enjoy the perks palatial apple park. For some contract workers, it is the exact opposite. The staff is in constant fear of terminus a of termination. Josh, we tend to think of Silicon Valley as a place where one goes in there treated to fancy lunches and a flurry of stock options. This one side, apple contractors, it is not connected to the main apple campus. What is going on there . Joshua i hope focused on a particular building in sunnyvale. As you said, is mostly contract workers, who are not direct employees of apple. , theysed on apex systems do work for apple. They usually stick around for a year or so and their employment is much different from what you would think of as a Silicon Valley job. Joe how much did the people who work for these contractors see these jobs is perhaps an opportunity to get a toehold within employment at these big tech companies, and what kind of career path doesnt really offer . Joshua this is one the main points of contention. I spoke to over a dozen employees who work for apple and almost all of them said, we took this job with the hopes that this would be the first step in. Apex encourage that feeling, according to these workers, and really there was little chance a would get a job with apple. Apple doesnt encourage this, according to the company. Apex managers recently told her workers they had to remove any mention of apple from their linkedin accounts, which is basically he only reason a lot of these people took the jobs. So thats one of the main complaints people had. Caroline there seems to be a growing sense of camaraderie with these companies for their contract workers. Weve heard it from other companies. Is it building at apple in any way . Of fulltime workers worrying about contractors and how they are treated . Joshua that was one reason to look at the story now. Contracting is not new, it has been going on for a long time. Contractorsme apple who said we are having these discussions with employees and as the Broader Technology Sector start to see employee activism, this has become one of the issues people are interested in confronting, and saying, do i want to be part of an industry that has this twotiered workforce . We think of Silicon Valley workers with foosball tables and amazing lunches, beanbag chairs and stuff like that. What is the Office Lifestyle like at one of these contractors , or the one specifically that you profiled . Joshua it was kind of the opposite of that. Workers said that there wasnt much to eat, there were multiple complaints about bathroom lines. There have been multiple aboutints filed to osha the fact that there were not enough bathrooms there. Nothing has come of those, but the fact that people are filing them certainly indicates a problem. People were always worry they would be fired, which seemed to really weigh on the people who work there. Romaine can i bring up the issue of labor rights . Begotten rumblings from time to time out of Silicon Valley, workers at microsoft fought back at the attempt for some of its workers to unionize. Are rehearing that from apple . Legally, contract workers are in a difficult place for organizing. They dont stick around for very long, which makes it hard to organize. Appleave trouble asking for anything because apple is not their employer. Apex as arred to supplier of night talk to them. That gives you a sense of how they are approaching this, and that has been tricky. There is a desire to find some way to confront that. Caroline a great story on apple. Talking aboutare the dollars a day rally. This is bloomberg. This isnt just any moving day. This is moving day with the best inhome wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. And this is moving day with Reliable Service appointments in a twohour window so youre up and running in no time. Show me decorating shows. This is staying connected with xfinity to make moving. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and twohour appointment windows. Click, call or visit a store today. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. For senior congressional negotiators are meeting today in attempt to salvage talks over Border Security funding. Republicans kay granger and Richard Shelby are trying to hammer out a plan to avoid another Government Shutdown. The prospect of getting an agreement by fridays deadline seems to have faded over the weekend. Without a finding deal, nine federal departments and agencies would shut down again, just weeks after a record 35 day closing. President trump is on his way to el paso, texas, for his First Campaign rally since novembers midterms. A Trump Campaign manager said the president sees the rally is less about winning over voters ahead of the 2020 election and more an opportunity to reshape the debate around his proposed border wall. 200rally will be held just parts from el pasos border fence. Potential candidate beto a competingl hold rally in his home city tonight. Many locals are challenging the president claimed that the city is a case study on the power of a wall to stop undocumented immigration and violent crime. He wrote that a pastor was safe because we are city of immigrants and because we treat each other with dignity and respect. Pompeory of state mike has raised concerns about china and russia growing influence in central europe. Secretary pompeo met with hungarys Prime Minister and other senior officials to him he stressed the importance of democracy and the rule of law as moves to counter chinese and russian efforts to pull other countries in the region away from the west. You need look no further than ukraine to see why this is needed. Today i spoke with the foreign minister about the urgent importance of supporting ukraine in its quest for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tin driveot let pu wedges between friends. Saying secretary pompeo reported to reliance on Russian Energy and the presence of huawei in hungary. Global news, 24 hours a day, onair and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Crumpton. This is bloomberg. The u. S. Dollar climbed today, recouping its yeartodate losses and continue with street that started when fed chairman Jerome Powell said they will be patient on hikes. In washington, managing director and chief economist at the institute of international finance. Robin, welcome. When i look at the rally, i dont think anyone would doubt that it started because of chairman powell and the fed. And you look at the eight days, potentially heading into a knife they come how much of it is the fed and how much is the outlook for countries in currencies outside the u. S. . Robin two things, first role, thanks for having me grant having me back. I think the last fed meeting at the end of january was kind of a seismic shock for many investors , basically has underwritten risk taking on a big scale. Emerging markets are part of that risk complex. We do a lot of work tracking highfrequency daily flows to emerging markets and they are off the charts. It is quite amazing. The other thing that has been going on is around the turn of the year in q4 last year, there were lots of worries about the Growth Outlook for emerging markets. Those have abated. Put that together with a dovish fed, and that is a good story for e. M. Joe what specifically are you looking at, because it still feels like for the most part, when people talk about the they are our. Robin a lot of it centers around trade frictions between the u. S. And china. Abatedlear those have somewhat, of course no one knows what the final outcome will be, but i think it is fair to say that following some tweets from about theent, worries negative growth fallout from trade frictions between the u. S. And china for the rest of e. M. Are less severe. Some of the rebound inflows we are seeing is especially intense to asia, so china, equity inflows are strong, indonesia, korea, all these places that would expect to benefit from a relaxation of trade tensions. Caroline aside from trade tensions, there are economic problems of it that persuasion in china. Large chinese companies, it seems to be yuan denominated debt. How much is that a key concern when you look at equity flows to that country as well . Robin it is a great point. The turning point in flows, before i get to the china that question, the turning point inflows has been equities. The big pickup inflows to emerging markets has been asia focused and equity focused. So it is very much a risk taking template. To move back to your china overhang,and the debt i think a dovish fed for china has a double benefit. I think we learned that lesson in 2016 when the fed shifted every dovish in response to valuation fears. I hawkish fed means a strong dollar, dollar appreciation. That puts pressure on the rmb and therefore pressure on china. The reverse is not the case with a dovish fed and that implicitly helps china with its debt overhang. Also beene have seeing a lot of flows into latin america and mexico. How do you view that region of the world and how does that fit into everything . Robin the big thing has been, up until the fed meeting, people were stuck doing relative value traits. I will give you an example. A characteristic of basically an uncertain environment, they wanted to hedge the em exposure, not go long e. M. And outright. Only of seen since the fed meeting is that people are taking out right e. M. Risk. In other words, they are going long brazil, as an example. The flows have picked up. In our positioning metrics, the question im asked most frequently from our investing clients is what is positioning and e. M. . Brazil and russia are the two most under positioned emerging markets in the big scheme of things. Joe how fast can these flows turnaround . Fast, or doe really they tend to trend for a while in one direction before changing . That is the milliondollar question, you are quite right. The truth is that these flows are very volatile, but the underlying driver are longerterm cycles. The reality is, the change in rhetoric at we had from the fed ditched the Forward Guidance on Interest Rates and introduced the word patient. The truth of the matter is this kind of shift is going to take a while to unwind. The flow has quite a lot of momentum. Caroline robin brooks, we thank you. Breaking news on the corporate front. Lets talk colgatepalmolive. A longterm Succession Plan is what they are announcing. Theyve elected a new president and chief executive officer. He has been serving as chief operating officer since july 2018. Be moving to be president and ceo on april 2. The ceo who has been serving anm 20092018, he will have interim time as chairman to help with some handing over of the rains. Helmnew ceo is taking the at colgatepalmolive. Lets talk again about currencies. The Great British pound currently trading lower, everything is lower against the dollar today. Outing new really coming but they seem to be talking about the need for an urgent itution on brexit, saying needs a strong u. K. Parliament majority. And seeingsome talks they are looking for a way to find some sort of breakthrough as the u. K. Data looks pretty ugly today. At only is the data ugly in the u. K. , so is negotiating. Beingk. Government is sued over its award of ferry contracts to handle freight in the event of a new deal brexit. Without publicize competition, the u. K. Canceled a deal with a Startup Company that doesnt own any ships. You cannot make up this stuff. Is sort of like they didnt think through this brexit thing. They needt seems like to get all this together. Up, a game that will stand up to fortnight. We have all the details ahead. This is bloomberg. Caroline lets get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. As the clock ticks down toward another potential shutdown, the move by the regulator is said to put the ball back in the court of uber and lift. Representatives all declined to comment. Barneys locked in on cannabis. To open whatnering is called a luxury cannabis shops on the fifth floor of its Beverly Hills store. Called the high ashtrays,ll sell bongs and storage boxes. Romaine shares of electronic nearly 41 high as some wall street analysts weighed in favorably on apex legends. A ponderable competitor to the ever popular fortnight. Harrigan. G in matthew i compare it to some of their other titles, what is the difference in the economic and deniness model between mad and apex legends . It is a free to play game where you are entirely reliant on the action online. Hink it is a game Electronic Arts has a good and frankly the nonsports titles have been very uneven. There a lot of criticism leveled at management. This is a nice success for them. It remains to be seen how effectively the game monetizes but it has caught the imagination of gamers with rapid adoption last week, 10 million layers very quickly. Joe im curious about that last part, when you say quickly caught the imagination of gamers, for those of us who are not steeped in the community, where do you look online to see, or anywhere to see that something is really taking hold, taking root in capturing the imagination, as you say . Matthew some of the metrics came out from Electronic Arts but there are metrics like super data which is owned by nielsen that gives you guidance on how games are doing over time and how they are resonating. You see a lot of the activity on andtoo and with bloggers various wellknown streaming personalities that are extremely effective for our marketing of games. Galvanizeit seemed to ea stock earlier today, up 5 . Then it all dissipated as the day continued. Commentou cannot specifically on daily gyrations in stock price, but why did the euphoria seem to dwindle . Gained aboutstock 4 billion in market value by the end of last week, which is reasonably general generous to the upside. I think theres a little bit of hype in it, there were couple of upgrades is morning. We downgraded the stock as it went throughout price target, we raised our price target somewhat. Discerniblea lot of catalysts around the next couple of months. I think it will take a while to see how the game actually monetizes. They are making a lot of changes in the game starting in march. I think it is a great start but there is a lot that still has to harden out and crystallize in terms of generating earnings, but it has certainly been a creative success thus far. Romaine i wonder what think about this free model that fortnight sort of pine and or at least exploited more than anyone else. Is this really the future . Are we going to get to the point where the only way videogames can stay relevant is by offering a free game and then offering to monetize it as they add on down the road . Matthew there will always be a role for some of the traditional unquestionably, when you expand your view to asia, there is no question that free to play is a growth area within gaming. You have to be clever with how you monetize it. When you look at fortnight, a lot of the money is made in the socalled skins or the costumes players acquire. It will be interesting with apex legends, is more of a firstperson shooter view so you dont see the skin in the game quite as much. Whereas with fortnight, it is a pop culture phenomenon, you get these changes every few months with new seasons and its something that has captivated peoples imaginations. With apex legends, there are interesting moves in the game and all that, but frankly, i dont think the aesthetics are up to the fortnight level. A lot of people are looking for alternatives to fortnight and this is the most competently executed thus far. Harrigan,matthew talking all things gaming. Coming up, credit crunch. A focus on the nations bond markets. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Caroline u. S. And chinese negotiators are racing to get a deal before tariffs on chinese made goods by march 2, but why stop at trade . So many different fronts that we need to be negotiating on. Number one, chinese still roughly 300 billion a year. Its hard to put a number on it. You have industrial policy that oncumvents wto rules electricity and property and all the things they do on industrial geopoliticalhen and military assertiveness in the south china sea. Another thing to think about with the interment of the one. Illion plus uighurs there are some you fronts we need to confront them on, and trade is so small. Maybe 20 of the argument. It involves a lot more people when you bring up geopolitics. What is the Market Pricing and when it comes to any kind of agreement or anything concrete coming out of a chinau. S. Trade discussion, or discussion overall . Gothe market has an 80 percent probability that a trade deal gets done. We believe that depending on how the wind is blowing that day and how President Trump feels, it might be properly price, meaning if what happens is we do a deal on trade and we elect to defer or discuss much later all the more difficult issues, then i think the administration gets a win, and the markets rejoice, briefly. When you look at the underpinnings of our relationship with china, it is at a very difficult place in its historical terms. Trade by march 1 may or may not happen. Bass,e that was kyle founder and chief Investment Officer of haman capital management. Onpowers have fallen behind debt payments in the last couple of weeks. Is it a bad omen for the chinese bond market . Lets bring in shery ahn to talk more about this. One of the things he talked about was how the u. S. Essentially had the upper hand on china. China was in such a bad place it would have to capitulate and trump should stay the course. Shery the center of the debate right now is who can outlast who . Were seeing the chinese economy showing signs of a slowdown, case in point those Corporate Bond payments being missed by these big borrowers in china. Warned hisi political leaders about social in case they bring about more social chaos, which is a huge deal for the communist party in beijing. Right now we are seeing some ecodata after the Lunar New Year holiday that retail sales fell and fixed Asset Investments are falling. A lot of that ecodata according to downside in the chinese economy. At the same time, we can see that this may also be good news for the chinese economy in terms of those bond payments being missed. Perhaps it is time for more transparency and reform. A myth that chinese leaders can think more longterm versus u. S. Leaders who always have to be thinking about the next election . Shery i think there is some truth in that. For example, we already had establish himself as president for life essentially last year, which gives him more leverage to have a longterm vision for the chinese economy. No wonder you have made in china 25, right . Have a say they do little more leeway on the political side of things. At the same time, you dont want social instability. Caroline we will see how the talks continue in aging. That is all from whatd you miss . Romaine joe will be back with us in new york on wednesday. This is bloomberg. Emily im emily chang in san francisco. This is bloomberg technology. President trump signs in order to prioritize oracles of intelligence. Help thealth to u. S. They had of china. And inside an apple socalled black site. New report reveals the not so conditions forng the tech giants contractors