Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20180109

Debt woes. We will bring you that trade. Accelerates,or gaining 6 in five days. Chrysler has jumped over 20 . It is 2018 going to be the year the sector regains traction . Freddie lait we are less matt less than half an hour to the start of cash trading. Look at what futures indicate. We have to look across the whole sector, although i would say that is a fascinating story, the car story. That is what we will ask today. Ftse futures up about. 2 percent. Not a lot of direction across the rest of the continent. Dax futures up slightly, cac down slightly but also very little changed. What do you see in the gmm . Guy lets talk about what is happening right now. China is on the front foot right now. Up. 7 . The nikkei trading up by. 6 . A great dayt have yesterday. The yen is trading stronger this morning. Aussie trading stronger this morning. What ison why is happening with the commodities story. Commodities are generally quite positive today. Looking fairly solid. Higher, koppers trading higher, oil picking up a little. Generally a decent station. The only little thing, coffee down 2. 57 . Lets get a first word news update with juliette saly. U. S. President donald trump is very close to making a decision on his vice nominee of the fed. That is according to a white house official. Position has been vacant since Stanley Fischer retired in october. The nomination will be part of a wider leadership shakeup at the central bank after trump picked Jerome Powell to replace janet yellen. Robert mueller has reportedly raised the likelihood with Donald Trumps legal team that his office will seek an with the president. He brought up the issue of meeting with mr. Trump had a meeting with lawyers. Council could interview trump soon on a limited portion of questions, possibly within the next several weeks. Theresa mays attempt to give her government a new year reboot marred, as officers refused to follow her orders. Off script. Ly went jeremy hunt, then education secretary were locked in discussions with her after rejecting proposed moves. It bodes ill for the next stage of brexit talks. Developmentomic minister has said britain should be granted the trade deal that brexit secretary david davis has foretold. Thelitically independent in body made the comments in interview with bloomberg. Will be what we need to achieve. Beyond that, it is a problem that we need to solve. Brexit is another piece of the western world that is basically more and more fragmented. Juliette global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more. Han 120 countries this is bloomberg. Guy thanks very much. ,amsungs trillion miss tracking down the by 3. 3 . Off while others have rallied. Analysts remain bullish Going Forward. Forecasts suggest a 33 gain for samsung over 12 months. What is the most important factor for south korea today . Mark cudmore joins us out of singapore from the mliv team. Why is samsung more important across the parallel this morning . It is an incremental step in what we know is a large and geopolitical situation. It is not like we have progress participating in the olympics meaning the korean war is over. It doesnt mean tensions cant rise again. Yes, it is good news but samsung is over 20 of the index, so its results were important. We saw the index finished lower, due to the samsung today. Matt is it samsungs actual operations that are the main concern, or the strength of the yuan . You on almostamsung has pulled 10 because earnings estimates were downgraded because of the strength of the juan already. We have seen a break to new levels up to yesterday when it suddenly reversed. That is a weight on earnings, samsung is expecting doubledigit growth in earnings. Thatd exceptional growth could not be expected to be repeated. The story is still positive for korean equities, asian equities, positive for tech. Overall, the story is positive. This is more of a bit of a correction based on maybe a little excess exuberance and it wont be quite as good as last year. Guy mark, the data are strong, why is the euro not rallying . A good question. I guess the simple answer is stack letters are already maxed long. There are recommendations in the euro, the price action has been terrible for the euro since the labor data out of the u. S. Last friday. It was pretty much dollar negative and yet eurodollar failed to break to the 120. 92 multiyear high, even the last within 26 tips. That is very negative price action and it looks like withine market is right for a pullback in eurodollar, euro crosses. That is purely an element of positioning. Assets at this across the moment. The start of the year, investors are piled in in this he asked a clean to a number of assets, whether the euro traded, the equity trade, and there may be a week or two of a little correction. This probably wont be a theme change, just a little consolidation of the themes we have seen already. Matt i cant remember if it was you or the macro man column talking about the importance of the dollar and the fact that maybe it is due for a bit of a pop. I wonder how that jives with this first time voting fed member striking a dovish tone. Is more aboutit positioning. I think the dollar probably is due for a little bang. Veryarket is suddenly negative the dollar, even though the fundamentals arent as negative as last year. Positioning is slightly misaligned with fundamentals again. The outlook for the book dollar is eris, but not excitingly so. The market has been excited about trading the bearish dollar trade against currencies like the euro. The story of the new fed voter is a catalyst of the price. Price action. Rather than eurodollar, the columns as you could see even bigger in euroyen. Guy why doesnt the market like the aussie rally . Think the market is being cynical about has been cynical about the aussie rally for a long time and got on the wrong side of this. Bes there continues to ongoing concerns about the Housing Market there and there is a general view that the ,verall economy in australia there are concerns the banks might be vulnerable if the property does pop or collapse. People have generally been cynical aussie. Behind all that, and this feeds through from the economy, is the fact that the yield premium for australia has tended to be eradicated against the dollar erratic against the dollar in the months. You no longer see the yield the and that seems market has tended to be short aussie and are getting caught offside. Now they are seeing metals rally so strongly. There could be more pain ahead for aussie bears. Matt we just got a red headline out of china. China said to suspend countercyclical factor in yuan fix. What do you think about the importance of this . Yuan fix is something investors pay close attention to. That sounds like a sign of increased liberalization again, but i guess investors have learned if it ever goes too far, they wont be afraid of reinstituting these measures again. The overall path to last number slowlys is we are getting more liberalization in markets, but the pboc are quick to change those steps if it seems like it is going wrong. The yuan isnt particularly volatile anyway. It moves within its band, doesnt tend to test extreme ranges. I doubt we will see a big change in where the fix comes out in the weeks ahead on this. Matt mark cudmore, thanks very much. Bloomberg mliv strategies. You can follow insights on mliv on your bloomberg. Next, more live from korea on the latest from the first highlevel meeting between sinceang and seoul 2015. This is bloomberg. Guy 15 minutes of the start of European Equity trading. Here is juliette saly. Juliette Samsung Electronics has missed fourthquarter profits estimates on memory chips and the strengthening won. Operating income rose during the threemonth end of december compared with the analyst estimate of 15. 1 billion. A 7 surge in the korean currency came as prices for benchmark memory chips leveled off after a year of gains. Altice lets Patrick Drahi maintain control of both companies as he pursues a turnaround plan for the debt laden european operation. Will the be distributed to shareholders in the second quarter. His Holding Company will be 51 of the voting power of the u. S. Company after the transaction. Aston martin is targeting a valuation of as much as 6. 8 billion in a potential ipo. Familiar,to people the company has held preliminary talks with advisers about a valuation that would put it on fox par with ferrari. Investor interest in an ipo this year could be bolstered by the planned expansion into the sportutility market, starting in 2019. Top fives net worth bit has am in shock amazon shares added a 12 months surge that shifted market value by all most 57 . The latest jump has pushed his above bill fortune gates reached in 1991. Guy thank you very much. Have aramco is said to citigroup to help manage ipos. Hsbc and Morgan Stanley are expected to be named global coordinators. For more, lets talk to Bloomberg Markets middle east anchor yousef gamal eldin. Give us the details of what we need to know here. The banks possibly winning those mandates would be a huge score for them. Saudi aramco is the crown jewel of the saudi arabia and transformation story. The other key takeaway is possible valuations. People involved in conversations with the banks say some of the valuations stretch from one trillion to 1. 5 trillion, which fits in an interesting sort of or interesting parts of the broader equation. We had heard some valuations of up to 2 trillion for that, and you are looking at 100 billion for the ipo. Ultimately, it is a bit of a higher price than a lot of expect. We spoke to a lot of it has to do with the higher oil prices. Brent crude is up 30 in the last six months. Better to do this sooner rather than later. Keep in mind the list we talked about is not final yet. This means there might be some truth to that. A lot of exchanges around the world vying for this crown jewel. I am more interested in the saga of mbs jailing a bunch of his cousins. Put in were detained and a maximum security prison, as far as i know, which is pretty hefty for young princes. Why is it exactly . We get one account from an attorney general that they were protesting utility bills . That seems in can insignificant for a royal saudi prince. We also get another story along the lines of a fist fight that broke out at a palace . What is the story here . Official line is they were holding an illegal protest. Clearlythe crown prince making a move toward economic consolidation and reforms, but also political consolidations which is why we saw that you turn in terms of state handouts, to make sure the reforms are not too hard on the average saudi system citizen, because it could backfire given what has been happening in the royal court. Guy we will leave it there. Bloomberg markets, middle easts yousef them out of a leading yousef gamal eldin thing. Go further into asia. North korea says it will send athletes and highlevel delegations to south korea for the olympics next month. South korea says it wants to dividedissues on the peninsula through dialogues and negotiation. Joining us is bloombergs stephen engle. Detente . He taunt stephen it is definitely a step in the right direction given all the stable saber rattling we have seen between the United States and the north over the last year or so. Obviously, since donald trump took over as president of the United States. It is a step in the right direction to get the north and south koreans across the table. In the dmz,e bridge about five miles from here, is where they have been holding daylong talks. There was a lot to gain on both sides. The north would obviously like to participate in the upcoming Winter Olympics here in south korea one month from today. Didnt want the specter of war hanging over winterwo weeks or so of festivities, which should be a celebration of brotherhood and peace on earth. They both at least achieved those goals today. However, going by beyond the Olympic Games is a big question, whether the tension will be ratcheted up again when the u. S. And south korea maintain drills in april. Matt does this give the u. S. An in to sit down for talks, as well . Didnt catch the question, but Going Forward is what we are looking for after the Olympic Games are over in march, april, may. Willthe tension resume or this lead to further talks on the nuclears asian denuclearization . When the south brought that up today, there was no reaction from the north koreans, when they said they would like to restart those talks. Thanks very much for your time. We will get more questions to you later. Stephen engle in the dmz there. , we will look forward to a lot of stories coming out of asia, and we will continue to focus on those. Here at home, as well. , the split there and airbus, the europeanasian story we will cover for you. This is bloomberg. The open is seven minutes away. Five minutes till the start of european cash trading. Keep an eye on altice, patrick from itsl sweep it debt laden parents. That should provide clarity for the business. It will be interesting to see how the stock opens on this one. A new organizational structure. Keep an eye on the house eyeders persimmons, keep an on the employment company, morrisons could be a stock to move. The carmakers, matt . Matt i am looking at a bunch of the carmakers. I have charts up on the screen of some of them. This is volkswagen, it has come up a lot over the last few days. 7 so far year to date and backup. This is a fiveyear chart, to its 2015 highs. If i scroll through some of the other charts, let me pull up for im, and show you how well this stock has done the last year. Up 20 so far year to date, past its 2015 high. Minute at the start of cash trading in europe. The euro is at session lows with sub 120, 19. 52. 20 year highs on the nikkei as it rejoins the fray. Itstracking lower off highs, but up by around 1. 5 . Look for that in the european open. The look global rally continues, apart from korea. Lets take a look at where europe is expected to open. Bit in be up a little europe. Less than 1 10 of 1 . The continental markets look fairly flat going into the start of trade. Watch altice, any feedthrough from what happened with the samsung story, watch the House Builders out of the u. K. , the Employment Companies out of the u. K. Plenty to think about, plus the carmakers. Lets see how the ftse 100 is coming through. We expect it to outperform a little. 76. 97 7697 is where we are trading. Europe is out of the gate on the front foot, not a great step forward, but we are at least seeing progress coming through. Tack expected to deliver similar numbers. Ftse performing. 2 to the upside. Ibex flat. Lets look at the sector story. The market is up by 1 10 of 1 . Health care day at the j. P. Morgan conference in san francisco. You will see a new slope come late to the start of trade tomorrow morning for the health care sector. Financials well bid, materials look more mixed. We will keep an eye on the carmakers. The reasonably mixed, samsung news the big story. Ces up and running, as well. What are you seeing in individual names . Has i should point out ces really been dominated by carmaker technology as well. We could expect technology out carmakers too. On the stoxx 600 right now, we are looking at 350 four gainers for 149 losers. Almost three to one there. You did see a lot of green on your imap. Column here, you have some of the big consumer staple names in there. B. A. T. And nestle, as well as reckitt benckiser, but some of the drugmakers. Roche, novartis is there this morning. Then banks with hsbc and lloyds. Dont forget the minors and oils, so royal dutch shell, rio tinto on that side of the ledger. Looking at the losers, bank send barclays on the downside. Deutsches number 10 as far as that, so not a huge drop this morning. We just dont see a lot of losers compared to winners today. Even though we dont see a lot of action as far as size in the market, you do see more gainers than losers this morning. Stocks around the world continue to hit fresh news high new highs. A pullback on the s p lasted all of one day yesterday. Even a oneday pullback we saw. Three hours, and the nikkei closed at a 16year high. We have seen 27 year highs out of japan most days of the last couple of weeks. We are seeing real strength across equities worldwide. Freddie laitw,. Does this make sense to you, this rally . Foam . S just a bit of freddie it is, but that makes sense to me. We have seen it does devaluation across the last 10 years and all of these bubbles inflated across the world. One of the cheapest that remains is still equities. Bonds are still more expensive, real estate is, money is something you dont want to hold medium to longterm. We are seeing frothiness encrypted currencies and new investments. In cryptocurrencies and new investments. Growth is picking up in a global way, rates are not causing too much chaos, debt levels are manageable, it makes sense to me equities should grind higher. Guy usually equities enter a phase in the cycle where they shift shoot for the moon. Are we getting to that point this morning . When does it become a loved rally . Sincee lait freddie 2014, the market has hit a fair value, but this is still very bearish, cautious, you can see that by that is interesting, because mark cudmore was here last week and took a bunch of meetings in london and said he was struggling to find an equity bear. Perception of the position. Some people have been moving slowly in the last year. To be clear, his view was that most people think equities rally. He doesnt necessarily believe they are positioned for it. Freddie mine was based on position. Which would imply there is more to go. Matt i often wonder about the valuations we see around the today, there is more data out about the european economy, the strength of it, expectations for a continued European Growth at a two decade high, and yet european stocks valued as rich as u. S. Stocks or japanese stocks. Why is that . Freddie if you look at the last 20 or 30 years, stock markets have delivered in broadbrush strokes, u. S. Has always performed better. The earnings and Revenue Growth has been higher and it has been fortter market to invest in a longterm investor. Thate, with its landscape, has not been conducive to very longterm returns. While people are willing to pay more than a year ago for european equities, they are not willing to match the u. S. Level of valuations, and i think they are right not to. Has historically performed better for investors. The japanese story is different, but probably a twopronged approach. They

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