don't let that fool you. it has been a great year for the stock market. some of the best gains since 2013. let's dive into individual movers. when we talk about the year, it was the year of ipo's. i want to break down the best and the worst ipo's for you. we will start with the winner, roku. up 273%. it opened for this year price of $14. we are now at $38 a share. quite a big gain. what was not a good ipo was blue apron. off about 59% this year. it ipo'd on june 28 at $10 a share. now at around five dollars a share. that is where we are in terms of ipo's.there are some individual movers today, some winners and some losers. i will focus on the losers. one of them is apple. that's why the nasdaq is the worst performer of the major averages. apple is off about one half of 1%. they apologized to customers. we saw this headlines this morning for changing software that reduced the performance of older iphones. apple said it did not intentionally made to shorten the life of those, so it is offering batteries at a discount for those phones that are no longer covered by warranty. munster said that could cost the company about $1.5 billion. david: thanks so much. congress gets back to work next week and it looks like getting tax overhauls done maybe just the start of things. with a long list of items and some complicated politics to be navigated. to set the stage we welcome henrietta treyz. she is director of economic policy. she comes to us from new orleans. welcome back to bloomberg. good to have you again. there is a complicated, long list of issues facing congress. we will put up something indicating in the month of january what they have to get done. let's start with where he left off. after the tax overhaul we had to keep the government going, but they kept going until january 19. what happens on january 20? henrietta: the government shuts down unless they have another patch. there is still disagreement in the republican party about how to fund the defense department versus the other programs the government funds. they need to get 60 votes which is highly complicated given the democrats need to provide as many as eight or nine potentially. as many as 12 democratic votes to keep the government open. it is highly complex as we head into early january. another thing is congress delayed its return. now they are not getting back until january 8. to get a short week funding bill through the can be very compensated. david: they have these continuing resolutions they keep going and going. is are any reason to believe they will not do that again to push it out another couple of months? henrietta: that is sort of like base case assumption. best case scenario we can fund the government through -- we will find the department of defense for that period of time and get the pentagon certainty, but everyone is left with just a couple of months. additional complications come from the fact we need to increase the debt dealing around that same time. republicans who have traditionally been deficit hawks have spent 1.5 trillion dollars of the recent tax bill have a lot of things they would like to sort out. it will be very complicated and could lead to a shutdown. david: there are some other issues that are not strict the speaking spending. things like the dreamers situation, are the democrats want to make progress. president trump says he will not do it without funding for a wall. are they going to get past that? henrietta: that is very complicated. i want to add a little color. democrats are seething about the tax bill, especially on the house side. that create a scenario are looking for a win. the dreamers issue, the doctor issue is a huge source of anxiety for republican and democratic members. democrats to have not dug in and planted a flag saying this is the line it will not cross are very inclined to make daca and the dreamers issue, which is so impactful to roughly 800,000 individuals in the u.s. today and has bipartisan support, and even president trump's support in certain distances, they will to extract the greatest pound of flesh they can. that comes up in march if i'm not mistaken. david: let's take another one that seems to be difficult for congress, health care. there are some proposals onreinsurance, particularly senator collins, a republican. she got a promise from mitch mcconnell. bullet fix some of the health care problems they have? -- are they going to fix some of the health care problems? henrietta: democrats are going to be able to extract a lot of concessions, is visually knowing susan collins will not vote for a full-fledged repeal of the affordable care act or any kind of partisan republican grab bag of ideas on health care. there are issues of a couple different tax provisions that are scheduled to go into effect in 2018. they will want to delay that. the health care front, just in the realm of health care policy. that is a major issue they need to address early on in the year. david: all those things we could put an old business. there is new business as well. infrastructure. thank you saying they want to have some big infrastructure package. the white house says that the top priority. can they hope to get something through on infrastructure with all these other things pending? henrietta: the infrastructure piece is interesting. i understand the white house has a 71-74 page document kept under lock and key they want to release in mid-january, but no later than the end of january. the goal is to provide roughly $200 billion in federal spending, which sets off alarm bells. where do you get the republican votes for the $200 billion? and lever that up to the point where it is worth $1 trillion want state and local municipalities get involved in the conversation. this is a hugely complex issue that is a high priority for the president and has traditionally gotten a lot of pushback from the majority leader of the senate, mitch mcconnell. will be concerted efforts to move forward with the transportation infrastructure push, for the complicating factor is you need at least eight or nine democratic votes and they are not eager to give the president a win. it will be a tricky needle to thread. i think it will take more than just the first quarter of 2018 the hash out. david: you need those votes from democrats assuming you get all the republicans. will there be a point in 2018 where we will see the deficit hawks come back to life? they seem to have been dos i'll this last year. this last year. henrietta: we saw them after the tax bill passed. mark meadows in jim jordan started to raise a little bit of cane on the senate side, saying we will not vote for the short-term funding bill until he get some sort of understanding about what's going on with the deficit. the real conversation about this. i think they are very much back in the picture and they will be making a big stink in the first quarter as we head into infrastructure, the debt ceiling tends to exacerbate the situation, and funding the federal government. becausement shutdown, of the deficit hawks and the lack of interest in collaborating on the democratic side will be a big issue for the first few months of the year. david: thank you, henrietta treyz. we will talk with her next about the new year and what it holds for trade and for immigration under the trump administration. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." tammy get some bloomberg first word news from emma chandra. fire new york city's commissioner says the blaze in the bronx last night was the worst in 28 years. 12 people were killed. the provided more details on how it started earlier today. >> we found the fire started in the kitchen on the first floor. boytarted from a young playing with the burners on the stove. the fire got started. the mother was not aware of it. she was alerted by the young man screaming. she exited her apartment with her two-year-old and three-year-old, and left the door open. emma: president trump says there'll be no deal to protect immigrants brought to the u.s. illegally from deportation unless it includes funding for his border wall of mexico. the president said the democrats have been told and fully understand there can be no daca without the wall at the southern border. we must protect our country at all costs. daca protections expire march 1 unless congress intervenes. hamasds of supporters of protested in gaza strip against the trump administration's recommendation of death recognition of jerusalem as israel's capital. jordan, protesters gathered in the city center. they were demonstrating against the u.s. action but in smaller numbers compared with previous protests since the december 6 decision. in spain, the prime minister said today he plans to call the first session of catalonia's new parliament on january 17. you may be enough and during his year and address. -- year end address. he ordered the election after firing the regional government and is often the previous parliament after it voted to declare independence from spain. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david: when president trump came to office there was a lot of concern in the business community about his tough talk on trade. thus far it has been more bark than bite. could this change in the new year? henrietta treyz has some sobering words. "we currently place odds of nafta withdraw and 60% in the first half of 2018. we are taking this situation seriously and considerate the single largest political risk of 2018." she joins us once again from new orleans. these are serious words, pretty sobering. 60% chance of a withdraw. what led you to that conclusion? henrietta: i'm pretty moderated. when you go up to capitol hill and talk to train staff or speak with experts who were at these renegotiations, they put the odds much higher. summit near certainty. the question is when not if the president is planning to pull out of nafta. the dynamic is we have seen the president saber rattle significantly in the last year and -- on steel aluminum tariffs. they are now in the sixth round. the understanding i have is that members of the republican party and republican business community have been urging the president to hold off with drawing from nafta as long as the tax debate was playing out, saying pulling out could derail the conversation and he with the support for the republicans for the tax bill. now that the tax bill is completed and we have basically a blank space in front of us and the president really genuinely likes to talk about how awful our trade policies are, the expectation is now the gloves are off and he's free to do what he wants. there is a significant lobby effort from republicans in the specifically in agriculture states who are saying don't think about pulling out of nafta. listen to us. the reality is there is little they can do to prevent this president from unilaterally pulling out of nafta. the confusion that would wreak is unknown. you can't predict it because it's never happened before. the fear we have'stems from tracking the administrations efforts -- administration's efforts and the president's commentary pointing to him pulling out of nafta and beating it -- leaving at the congress to handle the details. david: you mentioned this phenomenon of holding off after the tax law is passed. to what extent are gary cohn and steve mnuchin critical of this? there are reports that have been at the forefront of exactly that argument. please don't get in the way of tax report. others might have been more hawkish. is there truth to that? henrietta: very much so. particularly on gary cohn's side. others might have been more my understanding from the administration, the dynamic within the groups is that the republican senators, several of whom never the president in early december and continue to lobby at the white house. an interesting anecdote is that navarroller and peter tried to stop that meeting from being held in the first place. the president would not have these pro-free-trade republicans in his ear. they try to stop them from meeting with the president. ultimately john kelly allowed the meeting to occur and streamlined it so they could actually have a take place. it depends on who is in the president's ear at any given moment. there are two different factions in the white house saying let's take this aggressive stance on trade versus the others who are the traditional republicans who enjoy free trade and very much want nafta to continue. i would reiterate the agriculture senators, the agriculture interests are the ones who are extraordinarily concerned about the potential to pull out of nafta. madeor grassley from iowa news a couple of weeks back. he said he understands the white house has a contingency plan to prop up commodities markets when the influx of federal cash in the event the president does pull out of nafta. that is a little terrifying. david: that is all about nafta, u.s., canada, mexico. apply it to china. you can see that red for the president's own tweets. he gets aggressive against china. we have two outstanding areas the president can target china through. the tariffs on aluminum and the tariffs on steel. the president decided to attack these issues and label china as a steel or aluminum dumper by saying it threatens national security. it's an extraordinarily aggressive tactic. we have been waiting for months, since early summer for the administration to come out and say this is a violation of our national security targeting especially china. and go after these steel and aluminum tariffs. david: we have one viewer question i want to ask you. what is the timeline if the u.s. were to decide to pull out of nafta? could it do it right away or take time? the deal with pulling out of nafta and is the president can announce at any time he wants to withdraw from nafta. at that point there is a six-month period where it would be passed over the congress. they have six months to hash out an agreement. what scares me is this is an election year, and there is no good version of nafta the republicans can vote for. i can't think of a way it's appropriate for them to say nafta is a good and now, particularly after trump said during the entire campaign railing against nafta. asking that the take place around september or october is highly problematic. that six-month window as we have once the president sends a letter to canada and mexico indicating his intent to withdraw. that kicks off a six-month countdown clock to make it so. david: fascinating of some of sobering. many thanks to henrietta treyz. still ahead, some of those saudi princes arrested on corruption charges have been released, but only after they reportedly paid billions in fines. that leaves a fair number in detention. how much money in total made a saudi government realize in fines? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: yesterday we received reports that two sons of the late king of saudi arabia has been released after paying hefty fines. ever -- it appears several remain confined. for an update we welcome our bloomberg colleague reporting from dubai. we covered the two princes released yesterday. talk to us about with the negotiations are for the rest of the people left behind? know the saudi authorities think they can recoup up to $100 billion from them. they are negotiating deals to get the money the saudi authorities say they have got their corrupt means. you mentioned the prince. he is the most famous internationally and the wealthiest. -- bloomberg data shows his wealth that an estimated $18 billion. the core of his wealth is kingdom holdings, roughly $9 billion. but we are cheering is the authorities want to control -- what a controlling stake in the company, something so far he has refused to do. david: is this about the money or about the power? the crown prince noda is concerned about corruption and wants to modernize the kingdom. they can use the money in the budget in saudi arabia given some of the problems they've had with the price of oil. is this about money or power or about corruption? riad: it is all of the above. yes, they are trying to send a message that there is a new boss in town, a new way of doing business and the old way of doing business of patronage, royal princes is gone. they want to send a clear signal. if they reach a settlement with the prince, that would be the clearest signal of them all. it will also signal the end of this because he is really the bellwether of this drive. david: i'm fascinated by the possibility they want to own part of his fund rather than get a check. do they want the money or is it important for the crown prince to gain control or a substantial influence over the fund that the prince controls? riad: we don't know. we don't know their motives exactly. we don't have -- we know from people involved in negotiations they want a majority of the funds. the prince does knowledge to admit to corruption. he wants to come out of this with his reputation intact. david: thank you so much. we were told the banks were going to be big beneficiaries from the tax overhaul. so why is it today goldman sachs said they will take a $5 billion hit in the fourth quarter because of the new law? we will try to sort that out for you. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." shery ahn is on assignment today. let's get to the first word news from emma chandra. city'sew york fire commissioner says the fire last night was started by a three-year-old boy. his mother fled the apartment with her two children but left the door open. >> last night's tragic fire, other than 9/11, was the worst loss of life from fire inner-city in all 20 years. the happy land fire in 1990. we are in the midst right now of the worst month for loss of life in our city from fire in the past 10 years. : 12 people were killed, including four children as the ire raised to the building. in another deadly fire, this one at an upscale restaurant in mumbai, 14 people were killed. an artificial ceiling caught fire in the restaurant, for quickly and collapsed as people try to escape. at least 11 people are dead after shootings in egypt. a man on a motorcycle shot at several stores in cairo. he then opened fire outside of a coptic christian church, killing nine war and wounded eight others. the gunman was killed. egypt's christian minority is a frequent target of islamic terrorists. hundreds of hamas supporters protested today against president trump's recognition of jerusalem as israel's capital. jordan, protesters gathered in front of the main mosque in the city center. they were demonstrating against the u.s. decision to recognize jerusalem as the capital, but in smaller numbers compared to previous weeks since the december 6 announcement. former international soccer star is now liberia's president-elect. the former world player of the year said he is honored to join a new generation of heads of state. he beat the country's vice president. he takes office in january. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david: direct attacks the vaguely heard time and again how good the tax overhaul would be for the banks. they pay a relatively high effective rate that would fall under the new law to 21%. then we heard from citi and bank of america it would have to write down tax assets. sachs we learned goldman will make $5 billion less in the fourth quarter. that is a large part because of taxes on overseas asset it will bring back to this country. to help us understand this, we welcome our colleagues. let me start with you, laura. what happened? laura: we should not look at this as bad news. these are one-time costs. it will not carry over into 2018. it's happening in the fourth quarter of 2017. david: should we expect more of these from the other banks? goldman is the only one that announced. citi said they are going to have not said they are doing it. laura: maybe they will come in the form of ak's. we have earnings coming up in two weeks. maybe they will go ahead and give the full picture of how they will be treated on the new tax laws. we may seem additional filings, but we've heard from citi and bank of america in commentary form. also jpmorgan. david: will this be as good for banks as he thought it was going to be? >> in the long run, definitely. their effective rates are much higher than other industries in the u.s. -- thatl bring at about about because the dungeons -- the headline rate is going down. i have seen estimates saying as much as 20% more money they can keep because of lower tax rates. in the short rate they have different tax assets they have to write down. those are losses they took around the price this time they are still benefiting from. on your tax bill is lower, you don't benefit from that as much so you have to write those down. and the requires all u.s. companies to trade money from overseas at a lower rate on what used to be required. it ends up being around 10% of what they accumulated overseas. big, play $5 billion or $10 billion, but the longer run numbers are in tens of billions of dollars every year. i will always take that over a one-time rate. david: it's the other way around with foreign companies with banks. you wrote a piece for bloomberg that there may be an unintended consequence. explain how this works. yalman: it does sound like an unintended consequence. one of the ways the law changed -- they call it territory taxation. it is still pretty global. when you make money overseas, u.s. companies will pay money for it. it is at a much lower rate. but it is not as uncompetitive and forces -- and to make sure still you don't take too much of your earnings here and move it, shifted overseas. they are really not doing anything. you pay them royalties. you pay them some kind of fees endocyte a are profiting, -- and it looks like they are profiting. there's something called the base of erosion -- base erosion anti-tax. to prevent this, there is a tax. the way it is catching the banks -- this is complicated. the way it is catching the foreign banks is it looks like it will be based on growth. money moving out. they are moving in all directions. the subsidiary here borrows from the parent. the parent borrows from the subsidiary. did as cross-border in many directions. if you only look at money from outside the u.s., do inflate the income in the u.s. and you end up paying more. maybe this will decrease the rate beyond 21%, which is definitely not what the law was intended to do. david: that's a really foreign banks are under the gun. they also have to have capitalization requirements that are kicking in. how sympathetic is washington going to be? laura: it seems like under the trump regime not as much as we might have been in the past. these are corporations that employ a lot of people in the u.s. it is not a small part of the banks. ubs, large credit suisse, a lot of people in new york employed by these firms. i'm not sure you you can ignore them. yalman has done the research. there are two sides to the trump administration. one, is more bank friendly because it has come up with multiple reports saying how we can deregulate the bank system, and bankers love those reports. on the other hand it is so america first approach, which is very trump. it does not care as much about overseas companies. yet, is laura said, these are big u.s. companies as well and that's why there paying u.s. taxes already because it have big operations in the u.s. regardless of what happens, they end up paying u.s. taxes. i don't know if they really want to get rid of them. maybe get them to do a little bit more perhaps. david: it's another thing for the agenda for congress. they will see what happens in 2018. thanks for taking us through all of that. coming up, president trump took to twitter to talk amazon and jeff bezos about paying too little for shipping packages. the presidential aides aside, we talk about the tech industry is bracing for in the new year. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." instead of doing stock of the day, table the stock of the year. this is the last business day of the year. polling was the fifth best performer in the s&p 500 this year. the airline company had a great human headlines ranging from tariffs on big competitor, a potential merger and improving cash flow. joining us is taylor riggs with more. taylor: that's it. we can all go home. you mentioned the best performer in the s&p 500. dow.kes a 8.2% of the the 80% return has helped with -- david: only by itself, 8.2%? tide lifts allg indices. let's get to the three issues you tackled. first is tariffs. the commerce department did approve tariffs on the ba mbardier. --t confront confirmed boeing's complaints they were underpriced. that was a win for them. the pie chart. there are talks of a potential combination. in brazil they would not do a full out sale because 70% of that revenue comes from -- 17% of their revenue concert government contracts. they are open to talks or a merger or a combination. when the executives come back from their year-end break, we will take a look at more news. david: what about cash flow and margins? taylor: that is with the street cares about. going forward to 2020 and the operating margins look very good from the 737, the most profitable airplane. that contributes low double-digit operating margins. they have improved over the last few quarters. they are looking out. that low double-digit, that is very good for them and help them compete better with airbus. some good news. that is fine to 90% return. david: i would have gotten that question wrong. with a smaller plane, you got smaller margins. with a bigger plane, he got bigger margins. thank you, taylor. president trump took aim at amazon, tweeting the u.s. postal service should charge the on-time retailer more. "why is the u.s. post office, which is losing audience of dollars a year while charging amazon and other so little to deliver packages making amazon richer and the post office dumber and poorer?" he frequently criticizes amazon and jeff bezos, who have installed the washington post. trump's message affected amazon stock. it was trading up in the premarket trading. as the tweet came up and opened down and remains there now. get a talk about the ramifications and what can be done down the pike to the tech sector is cory johnson from san francisco and alex wayne in washington. this is not the first time the president has tweeted about amazon and a not favorable way. cory: i think you put the nail in. the fact jeff bezos owns the washington post and they have been terrific in the last year in its coverage of president trump and the problems he has, i think it may have a lot to do with it. the fact is as much as the post office charges amazon.com and ups and fedex and dhl, amazon loses billions of dollars in shipping every year and is losing more with each increasing quarter. for all those complaints, it is not as it amazon is making a profit on this. amazon is a fairly profitable business. earnings per share is not the right way to look at this success. when you look at the shipping information they give us, they are losing a vast fortune when it comes to shipping products. david: down in washington the president may be upset about how much the usps gets paid by amazon. get a pick up the post office and say charge amazon more? is that within his power? alex: the president perhaps is not totally understand united states postal service or amazon's business. the postal service's problems stem from its essentially a government agency asked to operate like a for-profit company. that works about as well as you would expect. they lose a lot of money because they are required to deliver mail to every single address in the country, and their rates are limited by an independent board. they can't charge as much as a cost to deliver mail. a postal service official, the cfo did a blog post where he recommended congress passed legislation that would loosen the reins on the postal service a little bit. let them charge higher rates for some services. let them stop delivering to the front door of every business in the country. that legislation has not advanced very far despite republican support. no, the president cannot order the postal service to raise the rates it is charging amazon. if the postal service did that, amazon would likely look to alternatives for delivery services. they are known to be building their own new delivery system, including drones and door-to-door service. david: let me pull back to a broader sense of is going on in the tech sector. i was struck today. this analyst came out with a report that said apple alphabet, amazon, facebook, tencent, all could build up to a $1 trillion market cap. with these tech companies really going so big and so powerful, they are affecting every asset -- aspect of life. can the regulators be far behind? and not just in washington, play europe and asia? cory: the president talking about restrictions on amazon's business, one person's regulation is another persons protection. i think it is worth looking at the issues in terms of monopoly for amazon and for google. in europe they are looking very hard at the issues posed by google alphabet's dominance in search. and when it comes to facebook, twitter is not on its way to being a $1 trillion business. hate speech, fake news and those issues, and regulating that speech as the same way political speech is regulated across other david: a year ago the chrome and was looking forward to a new era in u.s. relations as donald trump prepared to move into the white house. now russian presidential contentsson says the of u.s.-russian relations is one of the biggest appointment of 2017. human insight into the relationship between the two countries and if they could fall in a years is the team leader for security. welcome back to bloomberg. disappointed. are they going to do anything about it? >> it is not surprising. i think even people, whether you are a supporter or opponent of president trump, it is surprising to see where relations have fallen over the last year. a year ago we were looking at three dozen russian diplomat expelled by the obama administration over the russian meddling and the 2016 election. i think a lot of people thought that would be a low point after president trump took office things would start to improve. we have not seen it. the state department approved more defensive weapon sales to ukraine, something the obama administration, a step they never took. it is hard to see with the next steps are in 2018. president clinton has been arguing for -- putin has an arguing for the russian 1% to bring their wealth back because of the threat of additional sanctions from the u.s.. it has been a rocky year year than most people expected. it is hard to see the outlook improving for 2018. david: the russians did not get the diplomatic people back into the country after president trump got here. it may be going the other way. maybe there should be new sanctions. they seem to be going further into sanctions against the russian government. >> in the last few weeks we have seen a harder line. they targeted russians and people outside of russia. there is a report on the implications of putting limits on the buying of russian debt. that would hit russia very close to home and their economy. then you have ongoing disputes over the situation in syria, the situation in ukraine. the u.s. and russia find themselves on the opposite side of a lot of hotspots, even though personally when they meet trump and president putin seem to get along on a personal level. david: as you suggest and i'm saying, the trump administration does not appear to be backing off. what about from the russian side? are there any all of branch is being held out? -- all of branches being held out -- olive branch is being held out? >> they see themselves as a moderator in the north korea dispute. the u.s. does not agree with the basic terms that russia and china support to resolve that. fore is not a lot of areas confidence building at this point. i think serious is an area where russia can argue it is improving. a lot of people would disagree with that. they have definitely done more to change the situation on the ground than the united states did prior to russia's involvement in 2015. i don't know if that is a rarity for the president -- priority for the president but it is something the state department is engaged in and they don't see russia as being a conservator to the solution -- contributor to the solution. david: how much does the mueller investigation obligate the ability to put this relationship back together? >> it is definitely the elephant in the room. it is hard for the u.s. to really get much closer to moscow at any level as long as you have these allegations continuing and the probe looking into the ties the trump officials and trump campaign aides may or may not have had with russia in 2016. as long as that is hanging out there is just politically difficult to get past the difficult relations. david: thanks so much to bill, team leader for national security. coming up, the year of the iphone x is ending with an i sor ry. our chief strategy officer takes us through the year in tech. you can catch all our interviews with the function tv . just go to your terminal, put in tv . happy new year. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> 2:00 p.m. in new york, 11:00 in san francisco, and 7:00 in london. i'm julie hyman. >> on joe weisenthal. welcome to "bloomberg markets." julie: we are live at bloomberg world headquarters. here are the top stories where covering on the bloomberg in around the world. two to go until the -- hours to go until the end of trading for the year, the s&p 500 have its best year since 2013, and michael o'rourke of jones trading tells us the potential risks that could be real. says it willachs take a 5 billion july 1-time hit, citigroup could face a charge as well, but will the benefits outweigh the charges? and a reduction of the property tax reduction could have homeowners fleeing high tax states to places like florida? not all fun and games in the sunshine state, we will explain. obviously, i need the year to