Investors, waiting, chomping at the bit after the feds announcement on Interest Rates a little later. An Interest Rate hike is forecast. 2018 the expectation for and 2019 that will be in focus. The bloomberg dollar index, in the wake of the Alabama Senate election, falling today. Down by about 0. 2 . Crude rising ahead of key stockpile data. Marketsp, we will talk with christian nolting. With lapos elkann and Dennis Gartman. Sebastian the European Union againsted the u. K. Rollback on the agreement they have made last week. Michel barnier says britain cannot try to unpick the deals they made on friday. Still, europes leaders are planning to hand the u. K. A carrot for future relations. Former french president Francois Hollande says hes is a possibility for britain to strike a trade deal, but speaking exclusively to manus cranny, he cautioned that there are certain red lines. Eresident hollande a trad agreement is always possible, but it needs to be clear that it cant happen at any cost. There have been discussions held over the last year. They have continued and there are certain points for europe that remain resolute, for example agriculture and what one would call cultural exception. I think Donald Trumps position on trade agreements is not encouraging going into discussions with europe. Reporter the u. S. Secretary of state has reiterated that america is prepared to negotiate with north korea without preconditions, but speaking at the atlantic council, Rex Tillerson said the Trump Administration would want to quiet theories. We are ready to talk anytime north korea would like to talk. And we are ready to have the first meeting without preconditions. And lets we can talk about the weather, if you want. We can talk about whether we will have a square table or a round table, if that is what you are excited about. Reporter Industry Data shows dropped for as fourth week. Today forecasts supplies shrinking. The secretarygeneral says major steps have been taken to support this. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. This is bloomberg. Doug jones delivering a stunning upset to republican roy moore in a u. S. Senate race in red alabama. It was a contest that split the roy mooreefore was accused of Inappropriate Conduct with underage girls. Jones celebrated his victory while roy moore did not immediately concede. Alabama has been at a crossroads. We have been at crossroads in the past. And unfortunately, we have usually taken the wrong fork. Tonight, ladies and gentlemen, you took the right road. I really want to thank you for coming tonight. And realize, when the vote is this close, its not over. We still have to go by the rules about this recount provision. Mark joining us now is bloombergs kathleen hunter. How much of a rebuke is this to the gop antiestablishment wing led by steve bannon . Kathleen i think it is a big rebuke. Roy moore was their candidate more than he was Donald Trumps candidate. It is a stern rebuke to the steve bannon wing of the party. How that translates into the midterms is the big question Going Forward. You know, special elections are by design different from the turn elections. From midterm elections. I think they will try to say this is what it means for the midterms. I think democrats will definitely be emboldened, but whether it actually translates into gains for the democrats is too early. Mark what about donald trump himself . Is this a Major Political embarrassment for donald trump and his reform agenda . Kathleen definitely. He isliticala sense, the candidate who says he could stand out and shoot somebody and he would not lose votes. He probably really thought that throwing his support behind moore was going to swing the race in his favor. That did not happen. Now looking ahead to his agenda, having yet another democrat in the senate, means the republican margin of control be that much slimmer. Incident having a 52 seat majority, they will have a 51 seat majority. Mark will this affect the tax bill . Kathleen it could. They squeaked it through two weeks ago when they got it through in teh seante. They could not do that with obamacare repeal. If they lose one more potential vote no democrats will vote for this if they lose one more potential vote, that makes it that much harder. Momentumt about the about routing of sexual misbehavior in congress . Kathleen democrats will continue to press that. There was a dust off between some democrats in the senate and the president over a tweet the president tweeted in reference to senator gillibrand. Seeink that were going to democratic women, particularly in the senate, and democrats in general try to press some of the allegations that have been made against trump and some of the allegations that have been made against republicans and try to paint the contrast as if they are the ones that are not tolerant of this behavior and republicans are. Thats not entirely accurate, but it is the story they will be telling Going Forward. Mark thank you, kathleen hunter. The fed will announce its final policy decision a little later, the Market Pricing in a 99 chance of a rate hike. The focus will be on Janet Yellens postmeeting address. It could very well be her last press conference as fed chair. And the dot plot projections for the years ahead. We will bring that right here on Bloomberg Television later this evening. Joining us letter to talk about how politics and the fed affect markets, christian nolt ing. Could we start with the politics . That victory, that upset in the Alabama Senate race, does it have a knock on effect for markets . You sell the dollar fall. We are talking about the tax bill. What are your initial thoughts . All, i thinkrst of people have to admit it does not change the majority. It is getting narrow where, 5149 now. Its a push to get the tax done before christmas because the januarys due from j 3. Mark lets talk about the big events of the day. The fed tonight, a rate hike. Any changes to the dots in future years . Christian it is a question whether yellen in her last press conference, as you just said, is she really changing something . I dont expect any changes in the dots now. The market is going for the rate hike. Whats important is to read the inflation picture. Its an important story for 2008. Mark we had some pretty strong ppi data yesterday. Is that a precursor to inflation that is going to pick up . Christian we think it is picking up next year, but not massively. Is it really bringing inflation down forever . We dont think that is the case. Growth is quite strong. We think it remains strong in 2018. One consequence should be, given the very low Unemployment Rate, even coming down further from here, i guess, that inflation is picking up slightly. Mark it hasnt, has it . Has remained the lowest core rate for the best part of five years. Not enough to sway the doubters on the fomc. Those who would rather wait to see the whites of the eyes of inflation. Christian there are some who want to see it is really happening. It is not massively happening, so i do not expect a massive change in the fomc. I think the rate hikes will start in march. I dont think the doubters will massively change. I do expect the fed to move steadily, but like every quarter, it could happen. They will move up, but not a massive change. Mark and markets, i mean, we have got records in the u. S. There is always talk of the inverted yield curve. What is next . Is it going to invert and what does that mean . Christian the yield curve is important to watch because if you look in history, whenever it was inverted, there is a chance that somebody runs into a recession. However, we think that the two y 2. 10. Moving up to theres a shift of the curve, but its not inverted. We dont expect a recession in 2018. We also watch the Unemployment Rate. When the Unemployment Rate starts to raise, and it did. 3 Percentage Points three quarters in a row, then you also run into a recession. So, it starts before the recession. Tahts also something to watch. If i look at the Unemployment Rate right now, it is not moving up at all. Christian nolting will stay with us. I will speak with lapo elkann about his new headquarters. The italian election. Much, much more. This is bloomberg. Mark you are watching bloomberg surveillance, and im mark barton. Reporter saudi aramco is asking banks to pitch for roles on the ipo. Producer sent out the request for proposals. The bank wants to appoint a group of banks by early next year. A spokesperson declined to comment. A 6 increase. The chain owner remodel jobshops to boost store efficiency. Revenue advanced 13 at the start of the fourth quarter, excluding currency. Toshiba and Western Digital have ended a monthlong legal spat that threatened to derail the flash memory business and cut the u. S. Company off. Western digital is stopping the sales for consortium. The Japanese Company will end the legal claims against Western Digital. Airbus faces the prospect of having to find a new leader after Ceo Tom Enders decided not to stand for a third term. The ceo says he will not renew his mandate when it expires in may of 2019. The news sparks the leadership contest. An airbus spokesperson called the report pure media speculation. Thats the Bloomberg Business flash. Mark thank you very much, indeed. Its nextecb gives policy decision tomorrow. The markets are still position for a stronger europe, but the lies of Deutsche Bank and bnp pa ribas are pricing the risk of a list of his message risk of a less dovish message from draghi. Wonderful story yesterday, christian. Mindtrick in teh title. Basis of the story is, maybe the markets are underpricing a more hawkish draghi. Christian i think the ecb will send a very clear picture. And then, they moved to a situation where they are safe. And in 2019, they start quantitative tightening. And i think it will be 2019 before we see a massive change in Interest Rates. We are just starting to change the picture. If you look from a global picture, 2018 is when we see the peak in the Balance Sheet from the central bank. Maybe draghi is referring to this tomorrow as well. There is change coming up. Mark is that euro positive, yen positive . If you get a similar message from the boj as well . Christian i think changing policy is a major theme for next year, but why should draghi focus on this . He does not want a very strong euro. Thats why hes not focusing on a change in policy. Is finesay draghi with the level right now. From a market perspective, you have to compare the fed and ecb. There, andstaying the fed is continue to hike. Thats a change. That could be positive for the u. S. Dollar. And again, i dont think draghi once a stronger euro. Litically, it c ontinues. There are options of a coalitionlite. How soon, and what is it going to look like when it is resolved . Christian i think they will be really tough talks. I think eventually the parties have to convince their people they want to go for a grand coalition, which seems to be very tough because the spd has lost voters in the last election. All their ideas for government were collected by merkel, they say. Maybe it is true. They had a good program and then in four years, they worked through the program and nobody realized what was coming from merkel or the other party. I think they want to change it, or it is tough to get a majority in their own membership. That is why it could be a coalitionlite, or a grand coalition. But a deal will take time. I dont expect a decision before christmas of this year. Mark christian nolting, global cio at the tw Deutsche Bank. They shares soaring as begin trading in abu dhabi. T this is bloomberg. Mark shares of abu dhabi 16 onal soared as much as on the first day of trading. John kerry ring the bell at the open. Abu dhabi has been a huge piece. Its significant. Ipo in 10biggest years. We are very happy. Mark Bloomberg Markets executive editor Tracy Alloway joins us now. Is this expected to be the first thea wave of ipos in teh gulf . Tracy absolutely, mark. Adnoc actually pits one of the larger ipos to the punch. Saudi aramco is expect it to proceed with a potential 2 trillion valuation, maybe as early as next year. The adnoc ipo is a little bit different. Sale in a stake specific business. Its not a listing of the Holding Company level, which is what we are expecting from saudi aramco. This is a moment for abu dhabi to open up its Capital Markets and one of its Biggest Companies adnoc to domestic and Foreign Investors. This is the first time Foreign Investors have been able to participate directly in an ipo on the adx exchange. I spoke to the adx chairman today and he said he expects two to three additional listings next year, most coming from the government owned companies, which are opening up to outside investment for the first time. Mark what does the company do with the money . So, this is adnoc. Pockets in by deep the form of the abu dhabi government, so it does not necessarily need to raise cash. This is a company that wants to transform, that wants to modernize and align itself with some of the International Standards of Major Companies that we see around the world. They will have to start publicizing the Financial Results, something it has never had to do in its 30 or 40 yeras of history. Thats a huge cultural change for abu dhabi. It wants to deepen its links with outside countries, particularly strong sources of oil demand in the future, such as asia. Mark Tracy Alloway, in abu dhabi. Holding outeu the carrot to the u. K. On brexit talks. Mark you are watching bloomberg surveillance. Im mark barton. Heres Sebastian Salek. Sebastian in the u. S. , doug jones has delivered a stunning defeat to republican roy moore. The Associated Press projected jones as the winner with 98 of precinct reporting. The senate race in the state of alabama split the gop even before its controversial nominee was accused of Inappropriate Conduct with teenage girls. Alabama has been at a crossroads. We have been at crossroads in the past. Unfortunately we have usually taken the wrong fork. Tonight, you took the right road. Roy moore didnt immediately concede. I want to thank you for coming tonight and realize when the vote is this close, it is not over. Weve still got to go by the rules about this recount provision. Sebastian global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Sebastian Salek and this is bloomberg. Mark we are getting some labor market data out of the u. K. , britain shedding jobs at the fastest pace in almost two and a half years between august and october. The number of people in work fell by 56,000. That is the most since the period through may 2015. The decline exceeding the median forecast. Unemployment also fell, leaving the jobless rate at a 42year low. That is because people left the labor force. Falling Participation Rate may be a sign of weaker jobs demand. A growth still lagging well behind an inflation rate that averaged 3 . 3. 1 was the year on year figure. The amountcenters on of slack remaining in the labor market. The number of people classified as an active rose between august and october. A mixed batch of labor market data. Lets talk to the global ceo of Deutsche Bank wealth management. We are shedding jobs at the fastest pace in two and a half years. Youve still got real wages in negative territory, but the Unemployment Rate is falling. What is the takeaway . Wages,ou look at the that is because of inflation, so real wages are coming down, and that could have implications. The u. K. Is at a crossroads. Is it stable or going into recession . So far it looks ok. We think still probably 1 growth next year, which would be fine. If things turn out to the more recession isay to very small. It could happen. That is something to watch in terms of brexit. Mark weve had this brexit breakthrough last friday. How encouraged are you about the more difficult part of negotiations, the trade part . Christian it will not be in easy road. It is not in the interest of the e. U. To have any zero. If it is easy for a country to leave, that could not be in their interest. Other countries might say, is it is easy for the u. K. , then we leave as well. They dont want easy negotiations. It will be really tough the next months, however i think they will find a solution. I dont go for a hard brexit. 19, then there will be a transition period. Mark there was a view among strategists that the brexit breakthrough was good for 1. 14 was a figure that was cited as a target for 2018. Is 1. 40 doable . Are you in the sterling lukewarm or even bearish camp . Christian we are slightly bearish because we think negotiations will be tough. We saw some steps forward. I think the next months will be just backandforth. Mark and the bank of