Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20171201 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20171201

Keeping in contact, linkedin has big plans for asia. We are going to set the challengers and the rivals. We are heading into the end of the trading week here in asia, and we do have a really supportive lead from wall street as we had the dow passing 24,000. The s p seeing its longest streak, monthly gains up by about a decade. We are going to get a potentially before christmas. We have over the last half hour or so had the announcement of suspension until 11 00 a. M. Friday morning in washington. The key compromise has collapsed and is scrambling to salvage that. Buoyancyeing the passed through to the Asian Session. Couple of key numbers when it comes to the agenda today. Japanese inflation edging slightly higher, but surging still half of that target. We saw south korean inflation falling more than expected. The other piece of data we are watching for his the pmi. The private manufacturing survey. This one versus the official reading which came in stronger than connected yesterday, at the private companies. This chart is showing essentially the steeper the red bar shows the discrepancy theeen the difference, worth of that in private compared to the official. It does tell the story of transmission and some of these policies perhaps being more favorable when it comes to the wash up for larger state owned into prices which are more represented in that official member. In 40 minutesthat time. Let us get to the Asian Session and sophie is chat room that for us is tracking that for us. Southeast asia and taiwan coming online. How are we going . Sophie not too bad a footing after 11 month games through november. Lets take a look at the open in taipei and singapore. We had the taipei stocks fall over 1. 4 on thursday. Stock in singapore halting at the day drop. Not sure if malaysia is open. May be easing a catch. You have your futures pointing lower. And the yen is picking up against the dollar as the u. S. Senate delays voting on the tax bill until friday morning in the united dates, so we are seeing states, so weo are seeing stocks into your. The topix has risen 10 out of 15 times since 2002. Textiles are rebounding. Financials are recovering from thursday losses over in sydney. You have the asx 200 just above the 6000 level. Putting a couple of moves on your radar, lets take a look at nippon paint in tokyo, rising the most in over a year. It is still on the hunt for m a deals after ending talks with excel to. Sharp jumped over 8 as it is set to return to the Tokyo Exchanges first session on december 7, so we kick off december with this in view. Haidi supportive starts to the last month of the year of course after what has been a phenomenal year for equities. Uptodate with the first word news. Ramy inocencio with the headlines in new york. Ramy ecodata. Contrasting messages from korea and japan. Data from seoul showed inflation slowing unexpectedly to a one year low on gas and russia both. Growth came in ahead of forecast. Japan saw inflation accelerating. 8 in october, but cpi remains far from the bojs 2 target. Unemployment and Household Spending were unchanged. The white house and state department both the ninth speculation that President Trump to dump secretary of state rex tillerson. Administration officials tell us the subject has been under discussion since at least september with relations breaking down since midyear. The official line is that the rumors are not true and the two men continue to work together. Wildan sachs says the rides enjoyed by bitcoin this year means it is too soon to lay out any strategy. Lloyd blankfein says excessive volatility does not make the cryptocurrency feel stable or have longterm value. Bitcoin jumped 15 once they before plunging more than 20 from that level and then rallying again. He said he fueled no urgency to develop any plans. Something that moves up and down 20 of not feel like a store value. We will see. If it works out and gets more established and trades like a stored value and does not move up and down 20 and has liquidity in it, we will get to it. Ramy bitcoin is not the only stop on a high. These companies have jumped more than 1000 in 2017. The market value has risen from 100 million to 1 billion this year. They makes graphite electrodes turn scrapped into deal. As for china investment, it has stakes in a gold mine and auto parts company. Amazing numbers to news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and than 120in more countries. I am ramy inocencio, and this is bloomberg. Haidi the u. S. Senate has suspended a vote on the republican tax bill. That is late friday night. Me with aller joins the twists and turns we have had over the last few hours. How are they going to get this over the finish line and what are some of the hurdles that have been popping up . After what looked like a pretty good day, they had john mccain on board and it looked like they were shoring up their vote. They had a big hurdle cost in front of their path that the senate rulemaking body decided that one way they were going to try to get three key republicans on boardwalk work. It was a trigger that increased taxes if the revenue targets were not met. They cannot go that way now, so those three vote are in danger, and they cannot afford to lose. Ore than two republican votes no democrats were going to vote for this. They were scrambling to get folks on board, but were concerned about the deficit being real. They got word that this would basically blow a 1 trillion whole and the deficit, even with some Economic Growth, so that is making some members nervous as well. Haidi was it surprising that john mccain got behind it overnight given that he was the one who scuppered the obamacare proposal . How crucial is his vote to this . It was very important. That got people thinking, ok, this may be is going to pass, especially since he had been the one who had scuttled the earlier passage of obamacare in the senate. The Obamacare Repeal in the senate with that famous thumbs down vote. So that was important, but the problem now is having these other senators, including this trio of republican senators, who are skeptical. One of those is jeff flake, who is retiring. So may well want to vote against it. There really are procedural and real kind of legislative triangulating here to try to get this passed. Again, they want to do this quickly. If they have to wait, wait until next week. If earth being difficult to try to get this passed and then reconciled with the house by the end of the year, as a badly want to do. Haidi so what does actually happen, say it does get passed in the senate . What are the other challenges that are there . They have to reconcile the senate bill with the house bill. Both chambers have to pass the same exact bill, and so the house bill is different. That individual mandate. It does not treat state and local taxes the same way. It limits some, but it does not get rid of the exemption, so there are some big hurdles trying to put them both together, and that timeframe, trying to do it by the end of the year when there are not that many legislative days less, especially if the senate vote is delayed some. It makes it tricky. It tricky indeed. Interesting to see how markets wake up to this news that it has been suspended until 11 00 a. M. Washington time on friday. Thank you so much for that, jody seiter for us in hong kong. Lots of twists and turns as we have had a drama on the voting floor. We are getting lines through from the news agency in south it has arranged more than 13,000 kilometers. Of course, we had some speculation as to the distance it could travel and whether it could actually beat washington these the, so that one line coming through for us there. Still ahead on the program, ken u. S. Tax reform unlock term premiums in the bond market . We will be talking about that, plus more. Coming up, linking up with linkedin. Businesst sees the heading there. This is bloomberg. Haidi this is Bloomberg Markets asia. Im haidi lun in sydney. A quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Talks with exalts a collapse. It said its rival was unwilling to match its perceived value and take on the debt of what would be a 10 billion deal. The biggest shareholder is warren buffett, work for hathaway. Two separate deals this month. Broadcom is said to be delaying its pursuit of quail, until next year. Sources tell bloomberg it does not anticipate raising the 105 billion bid until closer to qualcomms Board Meeting in march. It does plan to nominate directors on qualcomms board next week. Meanwhile, qualcomm facing opposition to its 47 million bid for an xp nxp. They plan to push qualcomm to sweeten its bid. They are said to have scrapped the latest restart plan for this iron ore mine in brazil. Was shut two years ago, killing 19 people and polluting them via waterways. A new exam is being built. Japanese inflation picked up pace in october, but price rises are still less than half the bank of japans target despite the tightest labor market in decades. The boj to lift the 10 year yield target next year. Joining me in sydney is the global macro strategist at Ubs Securities australia. Great to see you. Let me throw up this quick chart could give the picture of what the boj is battling with. It gives a global picture of what the theme has been this year. The boj is battling the most severe Deflationary Forces given the last couple of decades, but what are we seeing given the job applicant ratio is what is the biggest jump or the highest we 1970s. N since the why are we seeing that translated to hire spending and inflation . You are seeing green shoots of that already. Few are not at the 2 inflation yet. It reason for that is that is incredibly low and bergen. We have seen wage gains or labor market gains for a long period time. Not enough. The pickup in inflation you have had over the last year or so it is a good sign that you might actually see inflation moving towards target. Haidi we talk about five years of abenomics. Is it working or is it just that it is taking longer than what the market expects it to . You have had a pretty good economic sort of environment for 10 years or so. That is what has been needed to get inflation on the rise. You basically have needed these massive labor market gains to get below. We are on par for reaching the target but it may still be a year or two away. Haidi does that change or call about the boj lifting that 10 year yield target next year . If you look at what boj speakers have been saying recently, they basically opened the door to adjust the target perhaps ahead of 2 inflation. We think it might be enough for inflation to get on core metrics about 1 or so. That might be in the first half of next year, maybe the second half of next year, but nevertheless, it may be a story for next year. At the 10 year yield in japan, it has been incredibly stable under yield curve control. If they adjust that target, you could see a whole lot more volatility come next year. Haidi its fascinating, isnt it . If you just ignore inflation, which is hard to do in the core mandate from a Central Banks, Economic Growth in japan has been stellar. Growth in south korea has been really strong as well, which is clearly why the be ok felt the need to move yesterday. Inflation fell the most in a year today, so are we overstating the synchronized Global Growth story or is it the fact that inflation is a shock from problem the structural problem . Freddie japan is a japan is a separate story. Youre seeing it in the u. S. , in large parts of europe, and also in australia, of course, wages are not really picking up that much. Sometimes, not at all. And no one really knows it is quite clear it is lower everywhere. Haidi are these Financial Stability concerns . Wages are growing near record lows. A lot of them are struggling with a very high degree of leverage, household debt. I do think that is a concern. We have seen a lot of policy being rolled out in force as a result. But i do think, you know, with the coming years, you will perhaps, asset prices keep running higher, you will probably see some concerns. To some extent, that has as well. It can. Equities are rising. Know, theret, you are risks in certain markets, etc. Perhaps it does not want to say it that explicitly. It is sort of part of that calculation for the fed, i think. Haidi other than the existential crisis of why arent we getting inflation, but what is going on with the flattening yield curve . I want to bring up another chart. In the bond market, everyone is trying to work out, does this suggest something terrible is just around the corner . The market is pretty clear, taking this as a message to drive the dollar. What is driving this sentiment . I think it is very symbolic for how, you know, fed hikes, at the later stage of the cycle, may not be beneficial for the currency. Thats because, essentially, longerterm yields are not too far from terminal rates. The fed probably expects to hike rates up to 275 or Something Like that. Just keep it there in the long term. The 10 year yield is already not too far from there. The third year yield is slightly above that. From some perspective, we think the just symbolizes how currency market may move on to focus on second over Central Banks at this stage in the cycle. Datatually a pretty busy agenda going into the week. Seeas always interesting to just how much there was with the official gauge. Narrativechange the of the managed slowdown for you at all . It confirms the narrative. Obviously today, we get to more inside. They are moving towards a rebalancing towards Services Sector of the economy. It seems to be going fairly smoothly. Youre probably going to have some volatility along the way, but pretty much the best we can hope for at this stage. Joakim the main one would probably be the curve will in the u. S. Continue to flatten. Regarding the boj. Haidi have a great weekend. Thank you for coming on for us. It is good to get the insights from Ubs Securities australia with me in sydney. South koreas gdp, not inflation, mind you, but gdp estimates being beaten for the third quarter. Inflation sinking to the one year low. This is bloomberg. Haidi south korea underlined its strengthening economy, expending more than expected. Growth at 3. 8 ahead of estimates. Inflation slipping slightly. They expressed concern about sluggish price pressures. Steve engle is with us in seoul covering this. What stands out in particular to you . Bok pullsry after the the trigger. Steve the headline number and the core cpi number really standing out. We expected the gdp number to come in, the final number, right around where it was. 3. 8 . That is the fastest pace of growth since 2014. Ofching it, First Quarter 2014, which was the fastest pace since the First Quarter of 2011. That, we knew. The south korean economy has been humming along on great exports in the Global Economy as well. Things are going pretty well. Hike around inflation pressures. 25 basis point. Dissent that you mentioned voiced concern that inflation is not as high as, you know, the government is predicting. It was inching towards 2 . That is their target. It was 1. 8 the previous month. The headline number falling down to 1. 3 . The core falling down to 1. 2 . Month over month as well for the down zero point 7 . That is the biggest decline month over month for cpi inflation since 1986, so maybe the lone the center was onto something here. The wiseu, maybe he is one. We will have to wait and see. We are watching out for numbers in china manufacturing. Steve yeah, of course, because obviously, these export dependent economies are often times very much linked as well with the holiday aberrations as well. Wey all get affected, and had some holiday is of course in october, so we are starting to get more interesting numbers are the trade numbers for south korea were below estimates. Exports, imports, trade balance below estimates. Humming along very well. Semiconductors and technology rebound globally had been feeding into that. We had doubledigit gains for the first nine months of this year for exports, but then that dropped off because of the big Holiday Season in october in south korea with the thanksgiving and all the families and all of the production slowing down. That went down in the single digits. We are expecting that to pop up to 10. 3 . It came in at 9 growth. A little bit below expectations. The export story, pretty strong in south korea. The be ok yesterday saying the semiconductor cycle is still going strong. Haidi perhaps feeding to the story that this is a dovish tilt. A dovish hike. For us in seoul. Coming up, a united front. They show Unprecedented Alliance. Retail. Under pressure like never before. And its connected technology thats moving companies forward fast. Ecommerce. Real time inventory. Virtual changing rooms. Thats why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent Network Speed across multiple locations. Every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. Leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. Comcast business outmaneuver. Haidi 9 29 in hong kong, just ahead of the the open. We are looking at negativity, if you will, going into that open in china. A few lines. The bank skipping operations this friday, noting liquidity is at a relatively high level. We know they do daily adjustments to ensure a balanced level of liquidity in the markets. Setlso have the reference at 60. 67 against the u. S. Dollar today. Q number we are looking out for in 15 minutesge time. We are expecting some pressure coming through from that environmental crackdown, the rebalancing ahead of going into that where we see pollution higher and policymakers trying to avoid that and weakness when it comes to exports. We did see that perhaps as a hit coming through on the less than expected numbers on south korea. Sophie, not quite enjoying the party we are seeing elsewhere. Sophie even that party is dampening somewhat. U. S. Futures pointing lower for the tax encountering. Lets take a look at what is happening for the open. Shanghai shares extending losses for a second day. About 20 . Flipping the board to see the action in hong kong, the hang seng gain about. 3 . After an the rise decent november for hong kong stocks with mainland inflows jumping to a record for that month. Signs are showing as we checked words yearend. Taking a look

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