Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Americas 201710

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Americas 20171003

Whats making headlines outside of the Business World. Gunman in the Las Vegas Shooting had a huge arsenal in the hotel room he used as a snipers current. Stephen paddocks body was found with 23 guns. Found two gun stocks that would have allowed a shooter to fully replicate automatic fire and at his home they found a further 19 guns, explosives and thousands of rounds of ammunition. The death toll has risen to 59. The white house is ruling out talks with north korea over its Nuclear Weapons days after secretary of state Rex Tillerson said the u. S. Was talking to north korea directly through our own channels. A white house spokeswoman said now is not the time to talk. The European Union wants more details about the uks brexit divisions before talk on a future trade deal. John claude uecker says theresa mays speech was conciliatory but speeches are not negotiating positions. The eu wants clarity on Citizens Rights. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im emma chandra. This is bloomberg. President trump travels to puerto rico to view the devastation from hurricane maria. In the on to las vegas wake of the tragic shooting in that city. Here is our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. What does he hope to accomplish in puerto rico and then move on to las vegas . He will receive a briefing in puerto rico with those on the ground in his Administration Working on the island as well as government and local officials. He will meet with puerto ricos governor and he will meet with governor kevin tennis map kenneth map of the British Virgin islands. He is facing intense criticism from democrats and republicans. Back on those criticisms and has aligned himself with the governor of puerto rico. Then go on to las vegas in the wake of the tragic shooting. What is the president s agenda . Details of what he will be doing in las vegas are still being worked out. I can tell you this tragedy has reignited the gun control debate here in washington. We are hearing from Top Democrats including potential includingnders senator chris murphy the democrat from connecticut. All coming forward and really calling on this to read new calls for gun control legislation. Yesterday on capitol hill Gabby Giffords and her husband mark kelly from the tucson tragedy were on capitol hill giving a briefing as well. Toid every president comes office with his own agenda and then has things such as hurricanes they have to deal with. What is the plan for this administration to keep moving forward with its agenda even as it deals with these awful instances . Lawmakers are set to return today to have full schedules of hearings and whatnot and developments on a host of initiative such as tax reform are likely to continue. You are absolutely right. Is without question perhaps the most of finding moment we have seen them President Trumps first term. How he chooses to respond today and tomorrow will have deep impact on whether or not he is able to restore trust within the as well ase movement trying to unify a very hurting country. The dollar briefly touching a fresh sixweek high. The prospect of tax reform also spurred gains in the greenback. Optimism on the economy has pushed records another close. The potential for a december rate hike is more aggressive than anticipated. I want to talk about the action in the fx market. How much oxygen might be left in this bounce back in the u. S. Dollar. Its a big short position. The ftc positioning is anything to go by. Thats a pretty good representation of whats out there. Themarket was very bold of dollar at the beginning of the year. We saw that in the data and it contributed to the magnitude of the selloff which was pretty serious this year and i think weve gotten to the point over the summer and early fall where any of this and for the dollar really dissipated. When you get extreme positioning and changes in expectations. Hats when you get big moves thats another 3 to 5 upside. Jonathan does the data support that for you as well . I think it does. The markets got ahead of themselves on the ecb action. I think they probably will at the end of october announced a having of their excellent Asset Purchase Program next year. Boj continues to be very aggressive in their policy and the bank of england i am a little surprised. I think theres more weakness in the u. K. Economy and the bank of england may not follow through also. As we get to the end of the year we will see a much different of expert patients for relative Monetary Policy and a short position i think is going to get pretty squeezed through the rest of the year. Jonathan i imagine some guys on the mpc are confused as well. Rosner, also fiscal stimulus and fiscal policy has come front and center over the last week. Hope of people are writing that this is going to go through. Do you see this going through smoothly . No. We are a little bit less optimistic and honestly im surprised at how the market is getting old up again. On there so many things president s agenda. The puerto rico disaster is just another very controversial issue thats going to take time. We think there are a lot of partisan divides. We havent baked in much fiscal impulse into our forecast for next year and we think more generally the problem of low inflation is really going to tie a lot of global Central Banks hands. Rate hike. The fed we expect of some point the ecb to start nudging back at stimulus but how far can they really get when inflation generally globally is starting to slow on a core basis . Almost nothing goes through congress smoothly. Do you think anything will go through on tax reform and how much has to go through to support the sort of reaction the market have had . We are factoring in some Hurricane Relief. The estimates are 100 billion for the combination of three hurricanes. That should at some fiscal impulse. On the Corporate Tax side we could get moderate cuts. In general the evidence is mixed regarding what impact that has on the economy. If we get that kind of relief obviously corporate profits are going to benefit. Going to do for the broader economy. We have seen wage growth staggering for the last couple of years. Consumer Spending Continues to be moderate. Is this the type of fiscal stimulus thats really going to change the outlook for the economy . We are a little bit more pessimistic. ,avid Robert Sinche repatriation seems to be something almost everyone can agree on. Withu can get repatriation some modest cuts in early 2018 what effect would that have on the markets . In terms of the currency markets probably not a lot. We have seen most of the assets held overseas are in dollars anyway so theres not a big effect. There could be a small effect. If it goes through and you have big short positions and those who are fearing it might have an effect would have to cover those shorts. Its a net positive for the dollar. On the corporate side you get a consumer tax cut and things happen pretty quickly. On the corporate side it takes economichile for those flows to adjust. Capital flows can adjust a bit more quickly and one of the reasons the dollar got as weak as it did this year is there was very little reason for capital to flow into the u. S. And i have argued the dollar has actually underperformed its cyclical hasnt hadause it these capital flows. If you suddenly get a rising set of expectations about future growth in the u. S. And Profit Improvement you could get those capital flows coming back and that supercharges the dollar rebound. Pinching robert alongside laura rosner robert pinching Robert Sinche alongside laura rosner. Thats all coming up this week. Look out for that right here on bloomberg daybreak. Remainn spanish bonds under pressure as the catalonia crisis deepens. Independence could be hours away. Joining us is maria tadeo. Give us the latest. A big strike in place. The blocked he areas, businesses taking part across the region and very key highways and roads. We dont know when they are going to be cleared. This is very important when it comes to possible moves. The police were allowed to use rather excessive use of force. How is this going to continue . Has gone quiet. Of implementing 155 has gone down a little bit. Saying, we are dealing with an administration that has gone rogue and violence is not the right way to do it. Its not an easy thing we are dealing with. Trying to talk to foreign media and present an alternative version of what has happened. Imminent 155his ban implemented has really quieted. Jonathan what is going to be the thing that can actually settle this dispute . Thats a big unknown. We know the catalonian Regional Government is determined to implement this result. For them the referendum was valid and they want to enact the law that will create an independent republic within 48 hours. Talk of that has really gone quiet. The day to watch out for is friday. The day when a declaration of independence was made before the civil war. That. Gone quiet on Jonathan Maria tadeo joining us from spain. Still with us Robert Sinche and laura rosner. Supportctant to remove quickly. That seems to have changed over the last week. Another sign of these ongoing strains between the wealthier and global institutions. I think what we are seeing in catalonia is not all that different from what we saw in the brexit vote and what we are seeing in the u. S. Withdrawing from some multilateral institutions. The lasthink this is one of these were going to see globally. It shows up in different places around the world. Jonathan what a lot of people hoped for europe is they would push forward with the reforms. Germany increasingly the agenda is to mystic. In italy they are set to have an election in the 12 months. Do they need to get anything done to justify some of the euphoria on the continent right now . Sometimes you win by not losing and thats really where europe is right now. If they can avoid backtracking in this environment thats probably about as good as they can get. Macron has a great vision but i think the probability of moving forward on further integration are verys limb. Really looking at negotiating something with the which i think reinforces the view that you really dont want to withdraw. Thats the one thing catalonians havent faced. The eu looks like theyre going to take a pretty hard stance on this also. Its generally understood that both the fed and the ecb are headed or normalization. If you are mario draghi does this sort of political turmoil in spain affect your decision about cutting back on your bond purchases . Probably not. Im sure he is watching financial conditions quite carefully. His priority is on defending and maintaining this really nice economic recovery we have seen so far in europe. Its really critical that they protect that. There are substantial political challenges ahead. Economic challenges that will come to the fore. And potentially slow the ecb down. Jonathan have we seen the height for the eurodollar yet . Same answer as last time. Yes. David thank you very much laura rosner. Robert sinche will be staying with us. At 10 00, larry fink this morning eastern time. From new york, this is bloomberg. This is bloomberg daybreak him im emma chandra with your Bloomberg Business flash. Uber is trying to save its business in its largest european market. The new ceo is in london today to meet with regulators who want to ban the service. Fight unhappy drivers and a key regional manager who announced hes leaving the company. Ubs may employ 30 fewer people. Ceo tells bloomberg that technological advances will change banking. Jobs that are left will be the ones where human contact is crucial to the delivery of service. Goldman sachs is exploring a Bitcoin Trading venture. In talks with cryptocurrency experts. It has yet to develop a Business Plan. All they will say publicly that its exploring how clients are interested in digital currencies. Everyone seems like has an opinion on bitcoin these days. Everyone from Christine Lagarde to bank ceos. Cryptocurrencies may give existing currencies a run for their money. I have special concerns about Virtual Currencies partially because of the secrecy factor. We worry about large cash transactions because large cash transactions can be used for bad purchases. You create something that makes it easy to do that and it has those same characteristics. If bitcoin last. If its a bubble or not. I dont see it as a credible competitor to the dollar because theres only one dollar. This is going to be the largest bubble of our lifetimes. Bubbles happen around things that fundamentally change the way we live. The Railroad Bubble fundamentally changed the way we live. Trade that i would fire them in the second. For two reasons. Its against our rules and they are stupid. A Fascinating Development which is certainly something more than just a fad. Privacying for the protections it gives people and what does it say to the central Banking System about controlling that. Still with us is Robert Sinche. He would fireid anyone who dealt in this. We have Lloyd Blankfein saying he wants to get in this. Whats the answer . It depends on what question we are really asking. Is it a trading vehicle, clearly it is. Its a very volatile. Big moves up and down. Volatility world its got a lot of volatility and that provides opportunity for gains and losses. Its a fairly illiquid market so the spreads are pretty wide. You have Market Makers that want to participate because you can make some money in it. Is is thiside of it really a viable alternative on a widespread basis for people to conduct transactions and thats where i think its not viable in terms of what we normally considered to be a currency. David the yellow line is the volatility of bitcoin. The blue line is the volatility of the s p. If you are a traitor that looks pretty good. Ofnot only the volatility price but the spread in price. Thats one of the criticisms that have come up recently about bitcoin. While it used to be very inexpensive to send transactions it is now becoming pretty expensive. With growthbenefits are beginning to dissipate in terms of cheap transactions. I think its a very portable goal. The knocks on using goal for transaction. Its pretty heavy to carry around. From a Government Point of view the biggest concern is the lack of visibility and not being able to track who is doing what. Theres a lot of people doing bad things with a lot of money around the world. Jonathan is this just about facilitating client needs . The clients want to trade this stuff. Is it any surprise that goldman would look do the same thing in a more significant way . I dont think its a surprise at all. We trade lots of things in this world. Is one more asset to trade around. I think thats much different from widespread usage and the kind of things Christine Lagarde was talking about. Culligan the biggest bubble in history. What is your view on the price of it . Infrastructure and what comes behind. What do you make of the price of bitcoin . We can see and markets that are very limited in supply that as more people become involved the price can get to extreme levels. There is a question about how high this could go if people get overly enthusiastic about it could also reverse. Jonathan from new york, youre watching bloomberg tv. Jonathan two hours away from the opening bell. Lets get you up to speed on some of the scores and financial markets. After a fifth straight day of gains on the s p 500 we are positive by almost. 1 . Futures up about 28 points. In europe a sick resources basic resources outperforming. The bond market yields continue to grind higher by a single basis point. Oft month we were just north two percentage points. In the fx market significant Dollar Strength yesterday against the euro. Today, sterling weakness. We had a pmi out of the u. K. Today. Construction data. Thats the economic story in the u. K. Boris is falling in line on brexit. He says he is behind every syllable of Theresa Mays Brexit plan. There were calls for her to fire him. Edwards joins us now. Johnson really fallen in line and what are the other members of the parties thing about the issue . Seems he has at least in part fallen in line. A number of with mps who said he has realized that maybe he is upsetting some the people that he might rely on if he wants to launch a bid for the leadership in the future. There could be something in it for him to back down at least in the short term. We have been asking what people think about whether he should or shouldnt the in the cabinet. A huge social media following. Hes a key brexit supporter. Something that many people look to as potentially leader of the party in the future. What does he think about Boris Johnson in the cabinet . He is absolutely essential to the conservative party. He is a supporter of the dust boris. Has been for a very long time. Inis johnson backing down the short term. Theleads this party into future is very much the french conversation in manchester. Feel sorryf you ever for fed chair janet yellen, feel for governor mark carney who has to face a grilling in front of the treasured terry treasury select committee. Comparing it to last week. So many people have come out and said its depressing. The Labour Party Conference was jubilant. It feelse about what like down there in manchester. The many people did say that about the brighton conference. It was a carnival atmosphere as if they had one and they didnt. Only rule

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