We have a lot of news for you. We need to look at the debate over the u. S. First things first. Lets quickly get onto your market check. This is what i am seeing overall. Losing somes momentum as investors try to digest recent gains spurred by the prospect of tax cuts in the u. S. , but also optimism for global growth. I am looking at oil over in texas. West texas crude sledding to 50 a barrel. Im also looking at gold. The dollar remains higher against most of its major counterparts. Im also look at what is happening in the topix in japan, the highest in two years. Nejra the white house has ruled out talks with north korea over the nuclear arsenal. Spokespeople told reporters that now is not the time to talk, adding that the u. S. Is interested only in discussions threeing freeing american citizens being held in the onion. Pyongyang. The the Justice Minister said the country would use all the tools at its disposal, including if necessary, the suspension of autonomy. S aussi dollar. Inflation might be slower than forecasted if the currency keeps rising. It is the 14th month in a row that the benchmark rate has been kept at the record low rate of 1. 5 . Has insisted he is behind every syllable of theresa mays frexit plan, falling into line. Onslaught of criticism, the perennial leadership says he fully supported the content of the Prime Ministers brexit speech in florida. The chief secretary to the trust is also backing the plan. There needs to be enough time for companies to be able to prepare and for the government to prepare. We need to give an end date. It is important to say there will be a transition, so that the public knows we will be leaving the European Union, which is what they voted for. Nejra a bundesbank board member has warned that banks should prepare for a hard brexit. His comments came during an exclusive interview with bloomberg in singapore. Ebanks the banks need to prepare for a hard brexit. There is an assumption, which is the most likely assumption right now. Francine global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. Im nejra cehic. This is bloomberg. Trump saysresident he will travel to las vegas tomorrow to meet victims and emergency workers after a killing spree that is likely the deadliest mass shooting in modern u. S. History. Meanwhile, he will visit hurricane ravaged puerto rico today. As constrained to kathleen hunter. First of all, what does trump have to accomplish today and tomorrow . It is a Pivotal Moment for the president. He had these two twin disasters, one natural and one manmade, that he will have to confront over the next two days. This is a moment for him to look president ial. Theynk that as americans, have this idea what they want the president to look like. Yesterday, he stuck to the script. He notably did not talk about gun control, but he did offer the right sentiments. He certainly struck the right tone. I think it will be a lot of pressure for him to go to puerto rico, where he might get a chilly reception, given the tweets he had over the weekend, the spat hes engaged in with local leaders there. It will be a challenge for him to stay on message and not delve into those issues, and then on the heels of that, go to las vegas and deal with the emotionally charged situation there. Francine what will the debate on gun control of like . 13 i was in the senate in 20 when they came very close to passing the background legislation. There was a real sense after that vote went down, four months after the sandy hook shooting, there was a sense at that time that if a class of firstgraders being shot at is not going to change things, then essentially nothing well. At that time, a democrat was in the white house. Now we have a republican in the white house. We are certainly seeing renewed talk of guncontrol legislation, but i would be surprised if there was any significant movement. One thing worth noting, there was a push with the National Rifle association to move forward in the house that would ease restrictions on gun silencers. It looks like that has been sidelined, at least temporarily. Obviously, the optics are not really good right now. I would be surprised if that kind of an agenda is sidelined for very long. Francine kathleen hunter, thank you very much. The dollar is on the rise, following strong Economic Data from the u. S. Investors are not convinced the rally will last, with speculators taking the longest net short position against the currency since 2013. H us for the hour is Richard Turnill. We are more positive on the dollar going forward. For a number of reasons. I will start with the Economic Data, which is consistently strong coming out of the u. S. , and indeed the rest of the world, but thats starting to show evidence of price pressures coming through. The fed will be more likely to raise Interest Rates over the next year with the Market Pricing this in. Francine this is a story of the last 18 months. The fed wants one thing, and the markets dont think they will do it. Whats going on . They have differed over the last 18 months. The market has been persistently reducing its expectations about what the fed will do. The market is becoming more confident the ecb will raise Interest Rates. We think the fed will raise Interest Rates before the end of the year and raise Interest Rates up to three times more by 2018. That is because the data continues to support the feds policy. Also, the very soft inflation data we have seen will prove to be transitory. That will give the fed confidence. And continuing this gradual pace of tightening. Francine so, what is the market not believing, then . Are they too focused on inflation . The fed is focusing on the overall stability of the economy. First, i think the market tends to be very shortterm. Francine no. [laughter] the market has extrapolated soft inflation data and focused too much on a small number of data points, which will not be sustained at that level. The market typically focuses on what is right in front of it and that is the wrong thing to do. It is right to take the longterm approach. In addition to that, we started this year with the longfellow position being very much the consensus position across the market. We saw that in much of the speculate of data we highlighted earlier. We saw that in blackrocks phone data. There was a widely help consensus, the longfellow position. On the other side effect of that, we has inconsistent surprises in terms of growth, which have led to the unwinding of these positions. Eventually the consensus short dollar positions and b environment where the market has rate hikes. Few francine from what you are saying, it makes 100 sense. Is it algorithms reading things wrong in the markets . De is it pourehor mentality . I think they are extrapolating that data into the future, over extrapolating that data. As the inflation data comes back and we have already seen the first signs of that, people are starting to ratchet up their fed expectations. We should not forget the other side of this as well, which is what is happening in the eurozone, where investors have extrapolated strong data and interpreted that as the ecb tightening. Francine on the fed, the term is coming to an end for janet yellen. Do you have to take a position on who will replace her, or do you just wait because it is broadly in line with what the fed has done so far . Idle think you can wait. I think you have to assume the fed will operate on the data that we are seeing. Most likely, whoever is fed chair, they will be looking at the data. And that is consistent with gradual fed rate hikes going forward. We are at a point when policy is currently very easy. The gradual fed tightening seems to be the path forward, regardless of who is in the chair. Francine stay with surveillance. Plenty coming up, including the catalonia crisis. It the latest on risk in europe and uncertainty in spain. Ubers fight with the regulators in london. The fight to keep the company on the road. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance and im Francine Lacqua in london. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash. 30 a ubs could employ fewer staff in a decade of Technological Advancements change banking. The ceo said, we see a lot of contraction and the number of people in our industry. Ubs could shrink by that measure, including contractors. Facebook has outlined plans to advertisement system. Said ital media giant will add more than 1000 people to review the ads that run on its platform. Company said the it provided information on about 3000 relevant ads to u. S. Congressional investigators. Nissan will recall almost every model produced in japan in the last three years for sale in the local market after regulators discovered unauthorized inspectors approved vehicle quality, potentially costing the company 222 million. Made 1. 2 million vehicles and sold in japan between october 2014 and september 2017 will be called back for inspection. Nissan vehicles exported from japan are not involved. Inrs new ceo will be london today to try to salvage the companys business in the largest European Market the meeting comes a day after ubers manager in charge of the u. K. Said she was stepping down after four years at the company. A spokesperson for uber declined to comment on the details of the meeting today. Tesla has struggled to produce the model shortly after the car debuted. The automaker bill just 260 models in september, less than 1 5 of the forecast. The companys shares fell after that announcement. Thats the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine spain has moved to turn the screws on catalunya as the European Union refuses to recognize the bed for independence. The country would use all the to enforces disposal the rule of law. This hasnt the country into the biggest crisis since the dictatorship. This has sent the country into the biggest crisis since the dictatorship. Lets get back to Richard Turnill. We have never really been through this before and it is unclear how it will end. At present, this is being viewed by a local event, rather than having broader applications for Global Markets or even broader European Markets and that is in part because it does not seem as challenging for european integration. Investors are looking at the events and it clearly heightens Political Risk in spain. We have a minority government and that has created some challenges when passing the budget. But we are not expecting this to spill over to something broader. Francine this is the 10year spread between italy and spain, which is one of our favorite measures to look at. What do you actually look at. I also have a chart including catalonian bonds. If you were to actually play this, what do you pile into . First of all, we would not be piling into spanish assets today. There is a risk this event has not played out and we will get significant further steps around this. Also, what history teaches us is when you get these geopolitical events, sometimes the local risk premiums can persist for some time. Today i would be cautious about piling into any spanish assets. We would look at international assets. As yet, you have nothing international or global assets affected by this crisis, or this event. If you were, history tells you typically that is the sort of risk you want to buy into because typically, those rises premium dissipate quickly and you want to focus on the longterm fundamentals driving markets. Right now it would not be stepping into spanish assets because it is essential for this to continue. Francine is it a reminder that Political Risk in europe is very much alive . Were also looking at the italian elections in the first part of next year. Yes, certainly in the last few eweeks we have had a couple reminders that Political Risk in europe has not gone away. Thela merkel remains chancellor, but there was a significant rise in the opposition vote. And here we have the catalonian event. Catalonia did not reflect the antieu sentiment. Its very much a domestic event and actually, it is highly that catalonia would want to be part of the eu. So, this is a reminder that Political Risk in europe it peaked at the end of last year it has not gone away. When we think about investing in europe, what is more important are the fundamentals around the european economy. Earnings remained very strong. Francine Richard Turnill of blackrock stays with us. Business leaders are gathering in moscow for the Russian Energy week. Putin will speak during a Panel Discussion moderated by bloomberg. Dont miss that conversation at 11 00 a. M. London time tomorrow. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance and im Francine Lacqua in london. Lets quickly get a check on your markets with mark barton. Mark the dollar is at a threemonth high. Speculators are the most bearish on the currency since january 2013. Recent dollar gains are poised to continue. The u. S. Economic strength and prospects prefer the rate increases, so says goldman sachs, recommending buying the currency against, you guessed it, the euro. Interestingly, the white line ve rsus the stoxx 600, the blue line. This is back in may. This shows how it is lagging behind the european benchmark. May was th epe peak. 7 , the divergence happened just before the run into this weekends election and referendum in catalonia. Yesterday. Ll 1. 2 marginally higher today. The stoxx 600 is up by 8 . The fallout from the independence voters show a contrasting performance between portugal and spains bond market. We have the s p rating for portugal last month. They catalonia uncertainty bringing the spread down to the narrowest level since december. And this is the dax, another record high, six days of gains from the dax. It surpassed its record yesterday from the june hike. It soared over 1000 points. The euro have come down from its pig against the dollar. From its peak against the dollar. Francine Richard Turnill, still with us. Your main difference was basically what you do with the dollar. Thats right. I think that has implications also for the european stock market because one of the headwinds has been the strength of the euro and the weakness of the dollar. As that starts to dissipate, and you see the dollar find some stability, and actually as fiscal policy expectation start to improve, we could see some changes coming through in the u. S. We have seen this come through in the last couple weeks. That removes what has been one of the huge headwinds for the european stock market this year. Youre starting to see european stocks react to that quite positively. Francine Richard Turnill stays will be and we talking to him about emergingmarkets. Ubs identifies the experiments intended to continue global growth. Can they sustain their eight year long expansion . We discuss that next. This is bloomberg. Francine you are watching bloomberg surveillance, i am Francine Lacqua. The deaththe u. S. , toll from the Las Vegas Shooting has risen to the nine while more than 500 were injured. Police found 23 firearms on the 32nd floor of the mandalay bay resort and casino. President trump will go to the city tomorrow in the wake of the deadliest mass shooting in u. S. History. The white house ruled out talks with north korea over its nuclear program. Sarah sanders said now is not the time to talk. After secretary thetate Rex Tillerson said u. S. Was talking directly to north korea through our own channels. Banks should prepare for a hard brexit in case talks between the u. K. And e. U. Failed to work. The banks need to plan for a hard brexit. No one really knows if we have one or not but this is an assumption which is the most likely assumption right now. Nejra global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am nejra cehic. This is bloomberg. Francine we are just getting some breaking news, this is u. K. Construction and actually reading below 50 except for the pmi. Reading below 50 indicates a contraction and that is what we have come a 48. 1 for the month of september. What we were expecting wouldve been a 51. 1 reading. Belowuction pmi coming in 50 at 48. 1. The technological revolution is one of the major experiments in the world and scientists, entrepreneurs, and Central Banks try to boost growth. That is according to hsbcs latest outlook. Says the change for athe case for more more active approach to find companies that will adapt better to the new environment. Joining us is willem sels as well as Richard Turnhill a blackrock. Coming. U for you put this report that says you need to look at the trends in the future to see what stock picks you want to be part of now , but if Technological Advancement is in the same speed the next 10 years how did we know what jobs we will be doing . Willem jobs will have to change. Over the last 200 years has been a lot of innovation and jobs have been destroyed but new jobs have been created. I think people will have to adapt. Clearly, anything that has to do with the human touch, with human contact really counts so jobs will be lost but jobs will be created. Francine what does that mean for stockpicking . Willem there is this contact this idea not just in technology but it across sectors, there are what that will explore technology has to offer to their dented. Anderms of productivity others will be left behind. Those superstar firms are the better,t can pay people and continue to create jobs. Francine you come out with their Global Investment outlook today and i guess you are looking at ve