Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20240622 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Countdown June 22, 2024

Welcome to countdown, im caroline hyde. A happy friday if you are along the markets. The route continues, this selloff in the United States we sell stocks down or than 2 . The s p 500, more than half a trillion profits the worst in 18 months for the s p 500. The dow jones and nasdaq also falling. I want to check in on the world equity markets right now. I have on the terminal the allcountry world index, and over the last month, the slump extending. We are currently on track for the worst week in global stocks in nine months. We are up more than 3 on the week, more than 4 on the month. This is significant. We are seeing more than 2 trillion wiped off the equity market. Hong kong, taiwan, indonesia all on the cusp of bear markets. This is an excess of 20 of the low of the previous peak. Down more than 10 yesterday, not one single stock rose on the german scale. A phenomenal move, lets kick it out to asia. Juliet is standing by in hong kong. It is a volatile day out there. Juliet it certainly is, caroline. Good morning. We want to pop to the selloff, and the selloff here in asia. You can see a see a sea of red coming through. The Hong Kong Market has just reopened after the lunch break. 22,000 points, down 2. 4 . It is now and officially bear market. We entered on the open today, you see a lot of the properties under pressure. Galaxy was a loser yesterday. The casino operator being heavily sold off. Elsewhere, shanghai is down 3. 4 . Look at that gauge today, really exacerbating the selling. I want to show you the other regions. The jakarta composite is down 2 . It is now in bear market territories, as is taiwan. The index is on track for the lowest close. On track for the lowest close since june 2012. Not only do you have the selling in emerging markets and of course the oil price, but also because of the tensions between the north and the south. In japan, a big fall coming through, as well. Down 2. 7 , australia having a recession a bit of a verizon spot coming through in new zealand. And of course we were watching those closely. That manufacturing gauge when he came through, i will show you the reactions. This is the Australian Dollar reaction. You can see it was 9 45 hong kong time. 11 45 sydney time in that came through in the morning. We had that coming through, it has improved a bit currently at 73. 18. I will show you how the shanghai composite reacted when the numbers came through. You can see it had that very volatile spike on the back of those manufacturing numbers. The worst rate you mentioned since march of 2009. The sixth consecutive month of attractions, august adding to the negative sentiment here in asia. Caroline . Caroline thank you very much indeed. Us to the twitter question, should china have done more to stimulate the economy . We know that the valuation has sparked the significant selloff. We see manufacturing obviously significantly underperforming when you look at the private gauge the juliet was showing us. Do let me know your thoughts. Now lets check in with the commodities and assets getting the selloff, as well. How that plays into the oil market, oil off by 1. 1 . That is traded here in europe. Nymex down by a percentage. Copper getting a selloff, moving into a haven. That is gold. Doing significantly better, the second weekend above. Swathe oflongest selloff since 1986. That is eight straight weeks of drops. It is clearly all painting doom and gloom if you happen to be in these markets. Lets check in on europe a bit now. Theis tsipras has called Great Coalition to judge his tenure with the vote. That was in a speech last night. , ladies and gentlemen, now that the difficult cycle has come to an end, and unlike the usual attitude of many who consider themselves entitled to keep the positions, their seats, their offices, regardless of the conditions and circumstances, i feel the deep moral and political obligation to put in your own judgment everything i did. The rights and the mistakes, the successes and failures. This is why i decided and soon will go to the republic to submit my resignation. Caroline our very own Tom Mackenzie is live in athens for us. More greek drama, you and i both set here in the office when we started to get the snap election called. What is it like on the ground . Tom absolutely, caroline. Another gambled by the greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. It adds fresh uncertainty to the situation here, just day after greeks secured the euro bailout. During the first cash yesterday. Alexis sampras coming out and Alexis Tsipras coming out and wanting more. The economy is hampered by capital controls. There is a strong feeling here that the next few weeks leading up to this election, whether it is september 20 or september 27, we still do not know. But it will put more burden on the very week greek economy. The move was welcomed by greeces creditors. Angela merkel brazil welcome to the move. But there have been warnings, saying that it may put in doubt some of the loan disbursements. Of course, there are a number of very tough reforms they have to make over the next few weeks and months. As we enter this new political sphere for them, some of those reforms are now in doubt eventually. Though there are more positive words, the eurozone as a whole on the periphery this should not be a big problem for them. Caroline of course, what has prompted this is that he saw so many of his own party about one third of them basically mutiny against him. Is he hopeful that this will go in his favor and he can start to get more strength on the back of this . Get rid of those tough members of his party from the left platform . Tom that is absolutely right. Essentially, this position is untenable after 34 members of his own party refused to back that bailout. That is why he has called the election. But the timing is really crucial for him. If Alexis Tsipras can get the election kickoff, then he has a head start over his main opposition rivals, new democracy and the other party. They are in the process of leadership changes. It will take them some time to get organized. Before that happens, each of the main parties will get three days to try and form some kind of government, which may in question the elections. Seem to think new democracy will be unlikely to do that. The other main parties get a chance, but it looks like an election is what we are looking at. In terms of Alexis Tsipras, he got a lot of votes in january. Willie hold onto those new democracy votes in the next election . ,hat is a big question for him where will he get those votes . If he can come out with a strong mandate, that will help them with a strong management to get the reforms through. But if that crumbles, it could be some kind of messy coalition. And that could really put pressure on the Bailout Program. And of course you have the review in october that the creditors. So, there are a lot of unknowns right, ithe gets it is a gamble. Caroline he is a man who likes to gamble. Remains to remember, he an incredibly popular politician in greece. Tom mackenzie in athens, thank you. On to other european news, it is europe, data set to come this morning, we will get an update on european Consumer Confidence. We have a preview, and the numbers are still going to show growth. But potentially a little bit of a slowdown from the previous month when you look at manufacturing, services. That is the overall situation, it is not great. Certainly expecting to go much better, given the declining oil prices and the weakness of the euro. Though it has the euro going less positive side, any number above 50 indicates expansion area and manufacturing and germany is 51 point six. But that is less than the previous month of 51. 8 . France still contracting, but not as much as before. They are still at 49. 7 . The number we are looking for is 52. 2 . Ever so slightly Slower Growth than the previous month, but the Service Shows the picture is much brighter. Expansion is at the same pace and germany. An overall the same as the month before. But giving the prevailing conditions, you would hope that an ideal world, things would be going better. But perhaps what is going on in china and other selloffs, and of course high unemployment still in the eurozone, these things do not help matters either. Airline what abou caroline what about sentiment on the ground . Elliott you expecting declined from the survey, in overall Consumer Confidence. 6. 9 is a number. Whichever way you want to put it, that is worse in the previous month. Caroline i like to put it as a trend. In att it is moving better direction, but it shows that consumers are not benefiting perhaps from the extra money you would expect them to have in their pockets from the declining oil prices. And of course, you would expect companies there to hire more if they can export more. And these numbers are of course not going toy are include the full impact of the selling we have seen in the emerging markets and the additional concerns about slowdown in growth in europes biggest trading partners. The big picture overall when you look at pmi and Consumer Confidence, it is not particularly rosy. Caroline thank you very much, elliott. Now, coming up on countdown, Angela Merkel is in brazil with ties to the build emerging economy. More on that story when he returned. And what the china slowdown means for emerging economies. Here is one bloombergs guests take on what is going on. Right now they are going through the awkward teenage transition. They are going through that now from a controlled, rapidly growing economy to a much more open and much more growing economy. And we are seeing now they are grappling with that challenge. And that transition. Caroline welcome back, it is 6 15 here in london. 7 15 in frankfurt. Here are the top stories. A gauge of manufacturing in china shows it has slowed to the lowest in six years. Reading came at 47. 1 for august, compared to 48. 2 estimates. Readings indicate a contraction in the worlds second largest economy, it could mean a slowdown. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras quit his post in order for a snap election to be called. It is likely used to shut out naysayers and returned to power they manageable coalition in power. Greek Officials Say a vote could be held september 20. And north Korean Leader kim jong un ordered a ceasefire and south korea. Ofh side accuses the other provocation. Tensions were high between the nation. Earlier this month, two south korean soldiers were injured by landmines. Angela merkel is in brazil for trade talks with controversial president Dilma Rousseff. Hans nichols is in berlin and has more. These are very busy times for Angela Merkel. Brazils visit have been prioritized. Hans it had been prioritized. It was supposed to be longer. Is, Dilma Rousseff controversial. But she is an important ally as germany looks to expand the economy. When you see the Global Economy shrinking, the numbers are quite remarkable. 57 billionspent dollars on rail transport, a lot of upgrades to the economy. Germany wants a slice of that. She is increasingly unpopular at home because the economy there is sputtering. Unemployment last month jumped all the way seven. 5 . That is a five year high. Look at the currency market, like a lot of the commodity economy, has been absolutely hammered. They are down 12 . Here is what Angela Merkel said. She hinted that they need certainty, that there is room to expand trade, and we need reliable conditions for investments. You look at the total trade profile, the two economies when you say the European Union and brazil, 21 of brazils trade is with the eu. Going in the other direction, refill is not as big or the European Union. And you take a look at the other figures, about 22 billion germanbrazil trade. Here is the challenge, they are consumer facing economies. Just take volkswagen, the worlds biggest auto manufacturer. He had big plans for brazil. They had a good year, they sold about 500,000 units last year. It is down 26 this year for the first half. That is a challenge, they wanted dis there. Gi they are falling short. Angela merkel hinted for a freetrade agreement. Caroline the venue on the play, she was quick to make a statement about what is going on in greece commenting on the election. Hans the comment on the election actually came from Dilma Rousseff, saying that Angela Merkel told her that Alexis Tsipras stepping down is part of the solution, not the crisis. That is Dilma Rousseff paraphrasing Angela Merkel. She could see how relieved dilma. Ousseff was relieve discussingwo women very different lyrical outlets. One more popular than the other. Thank you very much. Another emerging market in focus, south korea. An exchange of fire broke out across the line with north korea. Is accusing provocation. Kims get to bloombergs sam who is on the ground. Give us an update on what the latest is. Thati thought this morning the north Korean Leader put his troops on war footing meant that he has declared a semistate of war on the Demilitarized Zone. Control 1. 2 million troops, a lot of soldiers. But it is unclear at the moment how he will launch any kind of operation against south korea. His warning that south korea should withdraw all of the loudspeakers blaring propaganda against north korea within 48 hours, the deadline would be 5 p. M. Tomorrow. If south korea does not accept that demand, he said he will do something that is going to surprise south korea militarily. Caroline clearly, south korea on high alert when it comes to the military. We see the market effect, a sell there. King sam kim thank you for the update. The emerging markets seen, the race to the bottom has become under increasing pressure. Plunging prices for commodity exports and of course the prospect of higher u. S. Interest rates. Devalued yesterday were the stocks and bonds, lets bring in kevi henn serkin. And the cio of investment management. Lets kick off with you, this is your forte. Why are we looking, who is next . There were other countries on the brink to go next. Also devaluing repeatedly three times. You have to look at the tectonic plates shifting here. China is the one in the news, and focus at the moment. The depreciation of that currency is slowing. As you mentioned on the news, the manufacturing gauge is further evidence of that. But there is the threat of higher u. S. Interest rates. The collapse in oil prices, there is russia which is in severe recession right now. , look atruble plunging the countrys most exposed to those four factors. And the ones that have so far resisted the depreciation that should be going on in their currencies. And the ones that spring most a minor for investors right now are nigeria and egypt. Two countries heavily exposed to oil, nigeria has 90 dependent. And they are countries that have access to Foreign National currency, but it is restricted so much in nigeria that People Struggle to pay their suppliers. Formeru have the whole soviet union currencies, we saw turkmenistan and the rest of the stans. They are very vulnerable. There is the floating rate of currencies, the lira has tumbled. Ukraines currency will see more depreciation there. Caroline we have seen kazakhstan moved to the depreciation rate. Why are we seeing egypt not falling faster . Why are they trying to hold up the foreign currencies against the market . It looks like a very strange race where countries like turkey are surging ahead. Advisoridents chief last week says he sees the competitive rate for the lira much lower at three per dollar. Low and behold, and went there. And you have others like nigeria and Egypt Holding back. It is political, mainly. If you allow the currency to weaken, the import costs go up. Nigeria and egypt are heavily reliant on basic stuff like food, the bread in egypt is important. And the week is important. Unpopular to have a weak currency. Caroline you are looking at emerging markets a bit more, but not these. We are looking more on the consumer side. But to come back to this competitive variation, we have to concede that actually emerging markets are going slowly are at the moment than the developed markets. In the have much higher real yields than we have had in the developed markets for quite a while. It is right for the emerging market actually lower their yields, Interest Rates, and a value the currency. That makes sense for them in the environment to import the growth that is coming from the more developed markets. Actually, yes, it sounds quite exciting. And what china did last week does make sense overall. Caroline im afraid we only have a few seconds left. But should they be doing it in such an unmanaged way . Lothar a bit more coordination would not be a bad idea. But it is difficult to do between those countries. Overall, i would say they are doing the right thing. And with the Global Economy on the right track, i would say that the bottom is relatively close. Caroline the race continues. Gavin great to have you on. Thank you, lothar. Now coming up on the show, we will be talking to commodity billionaires. Stay with us. Welcome back, it is 6 30 here in london. Here are the stories you need to know tonight. A gauge of manufacturing in china shows the selector slowed. A preliminary reading came in at 47. 1 four august. That was compared to 48. 2 estimates. In thed contraction world of us fifth second largest economy, and it could need further stimulus to slow the growth. Aexis tsipras calls for special election, hoping to return to power with a more manageable coalition in parliament. A great Government Official

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