look like? tom: ok. that will be the end of the laughter for the friday show. let's begin with our top headlines. here is the wounded olivia sterns. greek lawmakers are backing a bailout. it is up to their european neighbors to get on board. the parliament approved a three-year plan. must make a big payment to the european central bank six days from now. ministersrea finance are meeting today in brussels to diss -- to study the latest terms. new figures out this morning revealing a slowdown in euro area growth. rose by .3%. the economist expected a slightly stronger showing. the weakness was clear in france. consumers stagnant and spending is flat. it is the first time in a year the french economy has failed to grow. germany's economy grew by .4%. clinton may yet faced serious democratic challengers in the presidential race. associates of al gore say's he will not -- says he will not run. buzzfeed report over the weekend said his supporters are talking about the idea. while the former vice president is not running, the current one still might. biden is still talking with democratic insiders. candidates from both parties are converging on iowa to campaign at the state fair. key clinton picked up a endorsement heading into this weekend. from former iowa center tom harkin. at theircutives looked new smart watches and decided it is not the time to launch their tv service. the company is delaying its live television plans until next year. apple was aiming to unveil it next month but sources say apple does not have enough content or computer network capacity yet. tom: maybe not the drama. mr. mcelroy, his ankle is fine. his putting, next. one under par after the first round of the pga. he is in 25th. well behind dustin johnson. it was his first round in two months after hurting his ankle playing soccer. it is a different game without tiger. we are getting beyond the tiger fixation. hans: he showed a little like there. is that cranberry red, nantucket red on the golf course? tom: let's move on, because none of us know about golf. data check. bonds, currencies, and commodities. an interesting bloomberg terminal this morning. what do you need to know? futures negative four. oil with a 41.98, does that get your attention? speechless. oil -- we'll speak with gary shilling later. brent crude. the spread is why between bre nt. it was $6.00. does brent come in to catch up with west texas intermediate. 65 russian ruble challenges once more. let's go to hans nichols. one calculation of nominal animal spirit in greece. this is real gdp. not bad but with horrific deflation. gdp on a four year moving average. down we go. delly go again. we stay lower than japan. this is ugly. -- down we go again. hans: no doubt about that. the deflator's are only going to get worse. on dropping. if you look at upward pressure on wages, i am not sure where we see them. tom: i want you to jump in and the discussion we are going to have on europe caret i'm focus on the lack -- the lesser countries, not germany or france. hans: on the periphery, the growth is stronger. be worried about germany because it had its bad number with a cheap euro. an export deflator. front and center. we will bring you up-to-date on china. gary shilling on oil. but there is greece and this new thing, the stagnation in your. we have been speaking to hans ni chols. quincy crosby joining us as well. good morning. do you care about europe or can i look at the u.s. as a bunde? quincy: we can look at the u.s. but that would be a mistake. we saw money go into europe. and i suspect that when mario draghi comes back, he will try to talk down the year appeared even more to get the euro -- tom: you nailed it. right where i wanted to go. can a central bank or talk down the currency? the game theory of europe. hans: mario draghi has been successful to this point. what else does he have? increase the size of asset purchases? tom: as that a currency war between europe and china but if we have a weaker euro? olivia, can you talk or is the rib killing you? olivia: we look at eurozone growth of .3%. did q.e. work? hans: no. the more depressing thing is this quarter is going to be worse. all of the great uncertainty that greece brought. it's going to be much worse in q 3. history does not disclose its alternatives. what would have been had mario draghi not pull the trigger? tom: what does lagarde -- draghi need to do? i think this is a currency war. quincy: he has got to get the euro lower. it now needs to be pulled back. a major exporter in the eurozone itself. so, you need to have strength in the eurozone. but also to china. of lombard street research and the focus on the netherlands. whether it is finland or the netherlands, these countries matter. olivia: of course. i'm thinking about deflation. that is the difference between nominalowth versus the level. what has changed? deflation. deflation is not unique to this quarter. what else happened in greece that was unique? was there a boost in tourism. was it a period of stability? jonathan: there was a lot of tourism. incraseased spending. people anticipating capital controls. tom: give is the update on greece. i'm like our audience, greece exhausted. make me care. hans: brussels will modify the agreement passed in athens late last night. 96 billion is the headline number. you may be can get germany voting on tuesday before angela merkel goes to brazil. if there is any sort of fly in the ointment on friday night, you're talking about a bridge loan, which is something they do not want. tom: quickly, nestle's reported greater earnings early in the week. can you say that europe is booming even if the politics and international economics -- hans: i do not look at nestle closely. wasn't swiss franc related? so they got to benefit. that is a currency play. always the thinking was that mario draghi was buying the national economy to reform the italian economy. hans: the italian economy, is heading in the right direction. is yourtural reform mentor. same with portugal. yourwe get you ready for weekend reading. quincy crosby with us. we will dive into the federal reserve from prudential financial. time for our twitter question of the day. can olivia sterns play hurt? no. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? i will be honest. it is cathartic. and we are not there yet. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom. that is our twitter question. new york city. a beautiful friday. bloomberg "surveillance". ♪ tom: good morning. let's get to write top headlines with olivia sterns. are smoldering two days after two years at a warehouse. the disaster killed 50 people and injured 700. hazardous materials sparked the blast. equalrce of one explosion 21 tons of dynamite. shipping is crippled in the city of tianjin. things are going sour for the maker of candy crush saga. falling by 28%. the swedish company says revenues are still declining, but despite the slippage, king digital will keep investing in candy crush. hbo knows how to get to sesame street. the children show is now in a five-year partnership with the cable network best known for more adult programming. the next five seasons of the show will be available exclusively on hobo and hbo now. the program will still air on pbs nine months later. tom: i am honored to say that on bloomberg on the economy i interviewed oscar the grouch. olivia: how did it go? tom: they could not tell who was grouch or. i interviewed oscar. all: he is short on the yen the time. he is so down on the yen. tom: he did not wear a bow tied. olivia: i also interviewed a puppet. they make for good tv. tom: let's move on to apple. olivia: customers waiting for toer -- for apple revolutionize live television will have to keep waiting until next year. tv networks are stolen. john butler joins us. we have been waiting for apple tv several years. what is going wrong? john: i think what is gone on here is apple probably underestimated how long it takes to really forge these content contra content providers hold allc the cards. content is king. ts. th apple has no power. it was exactly the opposite when it came to the record industry years ago. and try to negotiate great terms to get music for itunes. the record industry was on its back and really having a hard time with free music from napster and others. so, i think apple has a bit of a wake-up call in terms of -- and they have got to preserve the margin. olivia: apple is used to making a 40% margin. will they get that out of cbs? john: i don't know. time will tell. apple has the eyeballs. tom: many of our viewers and listeners are enjoying the capital losses in apple over the two.week or what i notice is if you look at the five-year trend of apple and you rollover, your back on trent. was -- back on trend. was apple out over its skis? or is this the beginning of a bear market? john: what blew people's expectations away was the iphone 6. i cannot believe the level of demand for the large screen iphones. i do not think apple expected it either. exactly. thator years they kept smaller screen. it was something steve jobs really wanted and pushed. ultimately, tim cook gave in to what consumers really wanted. tom: on the longer scale, is apple of value? i know -- is apple a value? is apple a steal or richly priced? look at where it is trading. this is interesting to me. it has always traded in line with large cap tech. so, it trades in line with oracle, ibm, hp. they're all in that same band on forward p.e. and you know, for apple i think it will move around within that range as visibility gets better or worse depending on what is going on in the business. right now, you know, they have launched the iphone 6. it was a huge hit. that is behind us, and people are asking what is next? tom: stay with us because we want you to comment on this. breaking news from tesla. we spoke yesterday of their secondary offering with mr. musk putting in money. they pony up an additional amount of shares this morning. when we see this, this is about enthusiasm for a secondary offering. let's review. tesla is at a price. quincy, help me. for thecounted 3% secondary. and that signals there is a lot of demand. quincy: yeah. there is a lot of demand. it is slow. it is the summer. on the market's down. so they have got to push enthusiasm and get the syndicate to go out there and really push it. million.proceeds $642 and tesla, how is there entrepreneurial vision related to apple? i do not think tesla makes money. do they? olivia: i do not think they make money quite yet. tom: compare and contrast apple -- john: they are both really unique, special companies when you think about it. apple was able to tap into what, how people really interact with electronics. they got it right. they pulled off a miracle in tech. they had a tripleheader. they had the ipod, then the iphone -- tom: within bloomberg industries, what is the take, with bloomberg intelligence, what is the take on tesla? will giveense is -- i my opinion on tesla -- and what i see there is they are in the right market. they are on the right trend. they are early. it is not bad to be early, but they are early. i'm not sure the world is ready for mass production of electric cars. olivia: they are still going to spend $1.5 billion in 2015 on capex up, 15% of what general motors invest. yes, tom, tesla continues to rack up losses. you said earlier you think that increasing the size of the share offering suggest investor appetite. i don't know. elon musk needs to spend a whole lot more money. lot more expensive than you would of thought. tom: what is tesla, a growth stock, a blue chip? quincy: no. it is a unique gem. i have to say with oil prices coming down and the expectation it could come down to 30, you have got to ask yourself come is it that exceptional that i'll buy tesla? john: it is a concept stock. [talking over each other] tom: outside the hospital waiting for olivia to get out, a blue tesla went by. and i said, so what? john butler. thank you on apple. well.la as coming back in our next hour, we will take a 65,000 feet view with ken feinberg. we will talk about his job on oil. we will talk about executive compensation. and i want to speak with ken feinberg about edward kennedy of massachusetts. stay with us on this friday. worldwide, this is bloomberg "surveillance" ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance" on china. our morning must read. lee hardman, bank of tokyo. up to the festivities of the week. stabilizes. it does not ease downward pressure on other asian currencies. at one point during trading, the ringgit had recorded its largest intraday decline against the dollar since the asian financial crisis in 1998." in hongice president kong. we welcome enda c -- enda curran. enda, the knock on effects here. how will it affect beijing's relationships with taiwan, with singapore, with jakarta, with malaysia? enda: good morning. i think malaysia is a good example of the collateral damage from china's devaluation. e, malaysia does have domestic problems. downward pressure directly into china's decision. look at vietnam. they widened this trading ban. they pinned the reason for doing so on china's move. we have not seen the currency war has not started but tensions are there. are more fragile, political-economic experiments. we cannot say that about korea of japan. and with the history of what abe said about world war ii. the effect of your evaluation going north to south korea and japan. south korea'sa is biggest export partner. a lot of this will depend on just how much china lets the yuan depreciate. they really stabilize things today which speaks to the january market reform. the suspicion is still there, the debate is still there. an old-fashioned evaluation to stir growth and stir exports. we will not know for a few more weeks. tom: what did beijing and the authorities learn about the markets in the last three days? did the twitter vigilantes defeat them? to fear theere told market, respect the market, trust the market. the central bank yesterday. but what they did do, however, was sent out a clear message, sure they're willing to let it depreciate to some extent but it is not going to be an open-ended depreciation. they will not let the market have their full way with the managed flow. the trading ban in place. even though the market will have some say -- you soda curran, thank much for your work this week. what a week at has been. what is your observation about the currency war? olivia: the worst week for asian currencies, including the ringgit, the rupiah since 2011. because of china's yuan devaluation. we are heading into a rate hike in september. you have to wonder how much more downward pressure there is. tom: i would suggest it for the into a developed nation like the bank of england and the fed. we will do that with quincy crosby of prudential in a moment. how about a twitter question? let's switch over whato oil. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? ♪ tom: good morning. bloomberg "surveillance" futures negative six but the news is oil. gary shilling joining us later. on friday, we continue the discussion. top headlines. olivia: crude oil is heading for the longest run of weekly decline since january. crude has dropped 4.3% in seven days. and dropped prices to their lowest levels in six years. the international energy agency says the market surplus will last through next year. intle direction to be seen asia stock market but china's currency appears to have stabilized. china's unexpected evaluation earlier rattled world markets and raise doubts about the country's economy, but the currency is steady for a second straight day. easing some of those uncertainties. the yuan's reference rate rose for the first time since the devaluation on tuesday. in havana, history in the making. for the first time in more than half a century, the u.s. flag will fly in cuba's capital. state john kerry will lead ceremonies as the stars and stripes are raised over the u.s. embassy. kerry will meet with cuba's foreign minister and the catholic archbishop and a group of dissidents. the latest moves from goldman sachs show they want to go for what they know. financing. the bank is washing his hand of the coal business. energy is paying $10 million for the asset. goldman is buying online banking units from general electric. deposited $16 billion. no terms disclose. regulators still have to sign off on it. tom: over to the national football league. i guess it has to do with tom brady. strange site. mr. brady in uniform instead of a three-piece suit. the illustrations of the game were supposedly more of a likeness of him. the quarterback was a surprise starter in new england's preseason loss. the green bay packer who cared. i guess it has to do with tom brady. strange site. brady has been in and out of courtrooms. brady made an appearance for the crowd roared. as you can expect, is deflategate -- olivia: four game suspension still in effect? tom: dealt know. i refuse to follow the details. the first two paragraphs of the "boston globe" had three adverts in the first paragraph. that is how squishy this whole thing is. hans: we won't litigate. olivia: deflated. tom: like your rib. it is a hopeful friday. mark carney is hopeful inflation will materialize. william dudley of the new york fed. janet yellen is hopeful she will miss nothing at the jackson hole meetings. we are thrilled to have quincy crosby with us. she's hopeful. she can get to the week looking at more fed speak and getting into september and december. did you change your call this week because of stanley fischer, bill dudley or any of the other cast of characters? quincy: no. we have been talking about september. talking about distemper, -- december even october. yellen wants to list off assuri ng everyone, do not worry about this. i am patient. i'm gradual. do not look to the past. we do think she wants a press conference. however, it was interesting that bill dudley, after hearing about china -- and by the way, my view is this is a very close-knit group. central bankers talk to each other. the imf. that is the reason. knew about this. i think the central bankers do about this. that they were going to do this. the timing is probably august when things are typically -- tom: i like your idea of october. find a window between the assumptions of september and december. quincy: well, i mean, that thinks they want to wait a little bit longer. december is difficult because the liquidity issue. but the point is, william dudley used the word, after hearing about china, he said "in the near term." aboutguys are so careful what they say. it is if they have got focus groups. tom: they do that with me, to. i have a focus group that tells me to shut up. olivia: no way for october. quincy, how does janet yellen quantifies some further improvements in the labor market? quincy: basically i think what we had -- another read on employment. 5.1%. science. a tom: we are lucky to have hans nichols with us. did they talk about the fed at the white house? you have been in the hallways. day after day after day. does anybody care? hans:science. tom: they respect the church-state separation. what sort of security protocols to be think they have? if creditors are hacking into prwire news releases, i've always wanted. to what extent -- we all central bankers when they are in public, they speak this brilliant which. it is central bank speak. when they are privately having e-mails, are they more honest? is janet yellen quirky and witty e-mailing mark carney? i don't know. the ukrainians pick up on the subtlety of the language. not to suggest there is a single hacker in ukraine. tom: inflation or labor center? quincy: it is very much labor center. tom: do you agree? olivia: i do not want to take an opinion. i'm picking him up on the bigger story. how do we get to 2% inflation? quincy: it is good for the u.s. it is good for the consumer. ultimately, it does help the u.s. economy. it.s face when we look at what is done well with lower oil prices, the restaurant index has done extremely well. it is not as if it does not matter. one thing we do forget. 1998 with russia. defaulting on the ruble denominated debt. oil that spring traded at $12 a barrel. what changed was china. suddenly china comes in. wto. oil prices start to skyrocket. is this abnormal? we have to get rid of this idea that china for now is not going to be the epicenter of demand. we have to look at economies differently now. tom: that goes too many of the notes saying china is following rather than leading. quincy crosby with us with prudential. we have a really special treat coming up. worldwide, you will want to be riveted to gary shilling. what anybody says, it is a call of a generation. gary shilling on lower rates, on lower inflation, and gary shilling on lower oil. this would be must watch. gary shilling next on oil. let's bring it over try twitter question of the day. gary is not on twitter. gary still writes with a quill. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? ♪ tom: good morning. west texas intermediate 42. handle toe -- a 41 the morning or let's go to the single best chart. then on to gary shilling. a simple chart. it is the chart of your reading weekend. the china decade evaporates. we are back to 2008-2009. and we are back much farther than that. here is what you need to know. the average price of oil for the last 10 years has been $80 a barrel. that is all you need to know. let's bring in gary shilling. he believes in lower rates. he believes in disinflation. and i'll write deflation. he happens to have been right. mr. schilling, i want you to reaffirm your lower oil call and how long will oil stay below $30 a barrel? gary: i think oil is headed for $10 to $20 a barrel. i made that forecast. it is based on supply and demand. when you're in a price war, like we are in now, because opec is basically saying -- we are not going to cut production. we are going to see who can stand oil prices longus. -- longest. somebody chickens out. they are playing this elaborate game of chicken. major producing country back so. of course, the earlier thought is that this is going to happen to american frackers have proved to be false. tom: i want you bring -- to bring you into the fed. will they act in september when you see the deflation going on right now? think logically, if they came down and looked at this, looked at this without their previous biases, they would hold off. they may have painted themselves into a corner because they have been saying they will raise rates. same economy was going to revise. they have been saying it for so long that they have a credibility problem. so maybe they will do something, even though i do not think it makes sense. now they the odds are will probably wait. i am not even sure they will raise rates this year at all. olivia: i want to ask you about your outlook for u.s. supplies. the oil rig index. it is this incredible boon. it does look like a lot of u.s. oil producers have perhaps chickened out. swoon over to the right side of the screen. what is your outlook for u.s. supplied? are producers cutting back? gary: a lot of people got excited when they cut back the rig count, but that does not really matter because they are taking off the inefficient vertical rigs. the horizontal rigs. that goes with fracking. the productivity in this business is going through the roof. so, there is really no sign they are cutting. opec has taken off their limits. they're basically saying, produce all you want to. so i say this game of chicken is still going on full force. tom: not that you need a shameless plug on your many books on deflation. i get the royalty check every 90 days. but gary, what we are talking here about is what stan fischer and bill deadly and mark carney do not want to talk about. which is gary shilling is right. when do you assume that central theers will adapt to oversupply, the supply side dynamics out there across all asset classes? gary: that is a very good question, tom, because if you look at their forecast from the fed. 2012, they said 4% real gdp. they printed down to 2%. for 2013, 2014, 2015. at some point you would think they would say, let's try something else. this is not working. of course, again, they have a credibility issue right now. theycentral bankers if limited look at the facts, they really would say this age of deleveraging as i call it in my 2010 book -- that you say is a shameless plug -- that is still with us. dp growth. i think that is continuing for a number of years. tom: i want hans nichols to jump in with a question on your. hans: so much of the oil talk has good -- will consumers feel richer? at what point you start seeing the oil price affect consumers? one good data point out of german gdp. german considers -- consumers spending. wealth effect is surprisingly small. one of the reasons if we have had this income polarization. income has moved to higher income. that is where the asset increases have been, stock driven. those people do not adjust their spending in relation to their assets. so there's hope for real wealth effect. it's been surprisingly small. tom: gary shilling on oil. his call of below $20 a barrel. we need some photos. olivia: in japan, prime minister abe making a statement on the 70th anniversary of all were two that made it seem like what is going on, pardon me -- he was going to apologize on the half of japan and then he stopped and said japan had repeatedly expressed apology for his actions during the war. tom: these are extraordinary headlines across the bloomberg terminal this morning. the one that really struck me is within these delicate comments, going back to hear of you -- hir that japane fact will do military exercises with the united states and india. it would be worth taking the entire trip. quincy crosby, a new japan. gary: it is a new japan. quincy: it is a new japan. they want to become more involved militarily. they will be trying to buy weapons. they realize this is a new era. i would have to argue, look at what is happening with china. cina's -- china's moves in that region. look at saudi arabia. globally, anda japan is entering that new era. it's clear it's here. tom: let's go to another photo. this is a little different than the seriousness of japan. olivia: on a lighter know. our second photo. state fair kicking off yesterday. presidential hopefuls are ready to make an impression. expect to see the butter cow. 5000 porkchops will be served every day. far animal exhibits andm rides. millionomic impact $150 for iowa. over one million people will attend. what is the value of that butter cow selfie for jeb bush? tom: have you ever been to? hans: all that corn. in the states you can get four ears of corn for a $1.00. do you know what two ears cost in europe? 4 euros. i would happily by the genetically modified. there is not a core best it -- corn basket. tom: this is going to be sport. olivia: the number one photo of the day. hbo is getting more muppets. it was just announce that "sesame street" will air on hbo for five years. new episodes will still air on pbs but nine months after airing on hbo. tom: it is very cool." back to elmo snow. the photo of elmo snow. hans: we can only do this conversation without pronouns. olivia: olivia likes cookie monster. tom: some but he walked up to me on the street and said -- are you -- hans: statler. cookie. tom: four years to learn how to do that. coming speaking of hbo, up, no more muppets are sesame street. if you are fan of "the wire," we will tie you what to expect from "show me a hero" after the break. this is bloomberg "surveillance" streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg.com. tom: give me some more cookie monster. olivia: cookie. ♪ tom: good morning. emerging market currency dash to a weaker level. let's get to our top headlines. u.s. officials say islamic state militants probably used mustard gas this week against kurdish forces in iraq. it is the first indication the militant group has obtained banned chemical weapons. the officials say it is likely that islamic state got its hands on the mustard agent in syria. is therent el nino second strongest on record. it could increase rainfall and drought stricken california. el nino is warming pattern in the pacific ocean. it can change when panders -- wind patterns in much of the united states. etsy is making a strategy shift tax hides it offshore cutting arrangements or the company no longer needs to disclose its tax information about his irish subsidiary. revenue may be routed through ireland. tom: i don't -- what does etsy do? olivia: they sell handmade goods. tom: i have no idea what that is. olivia: they do not sell them at bergdorf's. you do watch hbo. for years, he covered cops and crime for "the baltimore sun." then he created "the wire." he focuses on some of the most persistent problems including drugs and education. his latest series is called "show me a hero" and premieres on sunday. >> affordable housing portions. booing] >> ban all of it. olivia: it's a true story about a fight over did it -- seeker desegregation in yonkers that took place two decades ago. in light a protest in ferguson and baltimore, it has deep resonance. we sat down with damon simon. david, what are some of your highlights. david: i was eager to talk to david simon as a fan of "the wire." mentioned, public housing, desegregation, not the stuff you think of lending itself to gate -- to great tv drama. it does work. he has such a great perspective on the state of american cities. one of the things we talked about was race. i have a clip about him talking about how we couch our feelings inut frace -- about race economics. david: as a country most of us now know you can't sling around racial epithets. those things won't play. so we have a vernacular that allows us to play the same games. now eight is all about personal freedom and liberty and my property values and not in my backyard-ism. what it comes down to is fear. david: this story is about a federal judge in yonkers in the late 1980's. you have to build x amount of housing in yonkers on the white side of town. in played out over 20 years. "thei follow peter -- with chicago tribune" who is 20 -something and ducks five nights a week in the gun wars of chicago. this a research, is national issue or is it discrete to four or five cities? inid: simon lives baltimore and has a house in new orleans. a second-tier city. it is a widespread thing. what is interesting about him, he has platform to talk about this. in illinois.ter a call of a person shot. "shots fired." this goes on and on ever net. over holiday weekend, it can be 40 people. it is a war. hans: these are difficult situations. what strikes me about david simon, he is such an artist in describing the dysfunction on all sides. you don't walk away from "the wire" feeling positive. does he say anything in terms of the scriptures? -- in terms of prescriptions? him tothis is liberated talk more about policy. he thinks the drug war has gone too far. to me people are put in prison for small crimes. tom: thank you so much. with david simon. quincy crosby, thank you so much on the fed. as a live image and, emerging market is in malaysia really moving. let's look at the forex report. russian ruble a dash to 65. mexico record weak. renminbi takes a pause. ♪ n crisis.ce in does stagnation in paris signal recession to come? jeb bush, he cannot find traction and i will. he will go to the iowa state fair and pay homage to the butter cow. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, august 14. hans nichols with us. sitting in. we will get to greece in a moment. and playing injured like teri o'reilly with the boston bruins, olivia sterns with a broken rib. olivia: they do not take you up anymore. they are afraid you're going to get pneumonia. the key thing is to not make me laugh. tom: we will fail at that. hans: could you have legionnaires disease? tom: comedian ken feinberg with us to make olivia left. seriously. top headlines on a busy friday. here is olivia sterns. ek financee gre minister is heading for brussels open 2-iron not final details of the country's bailout. the parliament approved the fear plan today -- the three year plan. $96deal could bring greece billion in rescue money and some of it is already spent. they need to make a big payment to the european central make six days from now. the finance minister will sit down with his counterparts to study the terms. new figures out this morning we feel a surprising slow down in euro area growth. the gross to master product and the 19 nation region grew by .3%. economist expected a stronger showing. the weakness was especially evident in france. the gdp and consumer spending are stagnant there. it is the first time in the year the french economy has failed to grow. germany's economy meanwhile expanding by .4%. and hillary clinton may yet faced serious democratic challengers in the presidential race. associates of al gore say he will not be one of them. his spokeswoman into people close to him deny he's thinking of a white house run. a bus big report says his supporters are talking about it. -- a buzzfeed report says his supporters are talking about it. the current vice president might run. joe biden is still talking about entering the race. candidates from both parties are converging on iowa to campaign at the state fair. mrs. clinton picked up a key endorsement from former iowa senator tom harkin. it seems apple executives looked at the new smart watches and decided this just is not the time to launch their tv service. the company is delaying its live television plans once again. until next year. apple was on -- was aiming to unveil next month. but apple does not have enough content or computer network capacity yet. tom: that is interesting. i have been waiting for apple tv about sports, how about golf? the latest in the world top-rated golfer. his ankle is fine. his putting, maybe not. rory mcilroy is one under par. that puts him in 25th place, well behind dustin johnson. it was rory mcilroy's first round into month after hurting his ankle playing soccer. those are our top headlines. let me do a quick data check. the headline data checked is not signal really what is going beneath the surface. euro 1.1175. stronger dollar. handle.l was a 41 front and center. an hour ago, sport on europe will talk about china. we will talk about oil. greece wrapped around the stagnation in your. -- in europe. we look to little more into greece. with us, hans nichols this morning. what is the distinction going into this weekend? hans: there is a massive fight inwill take place on greecei newsrooms fighting to see which corresponded gets to cover the election. because it looks like we are going to have snap elections later on this month. a vote of confidence. likely have an election in september. and the government will likely collapse. it does not look like he has enough votes. tom: how is the imf perceived? is christine lagarde a hero? hans: negative for forcing austerity. an ally on the goal of having debt restructure. weeks ago when the imf announced the debt is unsustainable. that is when you started seeing mr. tsipras trying to appropriate the line which and arguments of christine lagarde. he can -- in some ways mr. varioufakas has been talking about all along. in voting is this package, he says the deal with the imf is not going to -- olivia: that was a conversation. what does he achieve? the terms that they signed up for were so much worse. the referendum was getting the conversation going again about debt relief. tom: ken feinberg with feinberg rosen. which barely describes his importance. he know this. he's going to be like the hbo series, "the john adams" series. and they are going to do "ken feinberg." you are the one guy that ought to be the -- i cannot think of anybody who would be better to parachute into all the people that hans talks about every day. what is your prescription for dialogue and successful diplomacy in europe? ken: are you dealing with people who can deliver the goods? it is easy enough to sit down with a representative of a group, a party, creditors, debtors. but even if you can work out some sort of arrangement, can those parties who have done this negotiating go back and deliver their constituents? that is the real problem. tom: been franken, john adams, tom jefferson go over to europe to borrow money for the revolution. their biggest challenges what you described. they did not represent philadelphia. ken: you see this all the time watching what is going on in the middle east. can the people at the table after there's a handshake, can they turn around and deliver? tom: how does christine lagarde fit in with the odd relationship? ken: she is trying to use the status of her position to promote the idea that if we can work something out in tandem, we can go back and unite. tom: i think of ken feinberg with that massachusetts accent speaking french and sixth grade. olivia: working on the hbo pr omo. ken is talking about whether or not these people can deliver reforms to their constituents. are you seeing that happen in europe? specifically renzi. hans: his gdp number stood not come in as good as he would like. angela mercker will still get this -- angela merkel will still get this to go through. she will get the vote through the she is not going to lose the position. what we see happening with mr. tsipras. he forced the vote through. he went back to his people. tom: where's europe in 90 days, if we saw the gdp we saw today? france flat. netherlands ugly. the others fractured. negative? hans: france in recession. you will have a revision downward. third quarter much worse than the second. a lot of the bad stuff in and the bad stuff in china happens. germany dipping negative. skillet to what the auto companies have done in revising their forecast on china. it is remarkable. volkswagen sells a lot of audis in china. tom: olivia, you are better at this than i am. the secondary countries are not secondary. they are rolling over. olivia: i was in italy last weekend. a lot of people were very concerned. tom: you were in italy last weekend? i'm afraid to ask. where are we this weekend? olivia: i'm staying put. my rib. tom: for those of us just joining us, olivia sterns playing hurt. olivia: don't make me laugh. so, if the greek economy really expanded by .8%. talk about how it shrank because of deflation, what does that mean for the imf's forecast that the greek will contract by 2.3%? hans: no one believes this number. they will have to plug it into their formulas. that number does matter. that's the denominator. it makes it easier to get there. then we get revisions. in three months time it is going to be bad. tom: let's bring the stagnation in. over to america. this is not the gdp you and i knew. this is not the gdp that younger george bush knew. can the politicians in washington deal with that? ken: have not seen it so far. forget we deal internationally and certainly in the united states with a political economy. not just in economy. all the numbers in the world may add up, but can the politicians deliver? and that is the big unanswered question in washington. no faith in washington. tom: we will touch on the legal community as well and other topics of a most interesting friday. it circles back to oil. overnight oil with a 41 handle. it got indonesia and malaysia's attention. mexico out to new weakness. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? we have had a huge response. it's free. there is no charge. even in ringgits. "surveillance" stay with us. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. we welcome you to our studios. time for the morning must read. here is olivia sterns on the secretary. olivia: secretary jack lew, secretary of the treasury writing about the high price of rejecting the deal with iran. the major importers of oil, china and turkey account for oods exports and own 47% of foreign held american treasuries. they will not agree to indefinite economic sacrifices in the name of an ilya sorry better deal -- illusory better deal." he said we can impose secondary sanctions to force further action token fun bird -- ken feinberg, what kind of signal we we sent to the rest of the world if we reject this deal? ken: powerful peace. he's laying out the argument why it is not realistic to hitnk that -- to think that rejecting this deal was simply permit more stringent sages. -- sanctions. olivia: do you agree that rejecting the deal up at the u.s. at odds with the rest of the world? op-ed pieceding the like anybody else but he made the case affirmatively. tom: can we do international diplomacy with no middle ground? ted kennedy used to walk across the aisle and talk to senator hatch and senator snowe. i think of my congressman in house ways and means. those people do not exist. ken: you do not see them much. diplomacy is the art of compromise, negotiation, flexibility, creativity. that is what i think secretary kerry is trying -- lew was saying we cannot afford the secondary economic sanchez. how will this message be received in europe? hans: in some ways and look at the political mess and nations of the last 24 and 72 hours. when chuck schumer came out against the deal, that is a clear signal that the deal would go to the senate. -chuck schumer is a pretty good whip count. is it veto proof? that is a signal to have the votes in the bag. jewishw is the constituency, the politics of israel changed in washington since you were there? ken: it is much more divisive now. you have got all different aspects, different organizations, individuals speaking out for the deal. tom: do we europe for golda meier? golda- do we yearn for meier? ken: this time it is an issue dividing them. tom: somebody talk about in the coming months with ken feinberg. our twitter question. oil is the topic of the moment. what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? we need you to stay with us. bloomberg surveillance ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. good friday morning on bloomberg "surveillance" our top headlines. olivia: fires are still smoldering at a chinese port two days after huge explosions at a warehouse. the disaster killed 50 and injured 700. hazardous materials in storage containers sparked the blast. the port said one explosion equal 21 tons of dynamite. shipping is crippled in the city of tianjin. elon musk is boosting the stock million shares yesterday tesla filed to sell 2.1 million shares to raise half $1 billion. have gained 9% so far this year. we will go in depth about the carmaker later on this hour on bloomberg "surveillance" and hbo knows how to get to "sesame street." the children show is now in a five-year partnership with the cable network that is known for more adult programming. the next five seasons of the show will be available exclusively on hbo and hbo now. the program will still air on pbs just nine months later. those are your top headlines. tom: theory good. let's move on to a bigger view. well, they may agree like brothers and worship the lord, the first thing we do is let's kill all the lawyers. it is shakespeare. it is henry vi. that true today, except there is reality of society that compromises directed by attorneys. the attorneys we keep. kenneth feinberg has brought compromise to american society their injuredd parties. we considered lawyers as we still -- for another presidential derby. what did you learn? what was the surprise of process that you learned being the czar of this and that? ken: cooperation with lawyers. most lawyers if they have clients and they see a program that has been established that can get money into the pockets of their clients who have been injured quickly, 30 days, 60 days -- tom: quickly matters. ken: that is the key. get the money out the door to eligible victims and get them compensated as soon as possible. tom: i looked at the 5-4 vote in the supreme corporate we all know justice roberts. we do not remember a time of earl warren, warren berger. berger comes in as an eisenhower conservative and he surprised. what other surprises we're going to see an american law? ken: i don't know. it'll be interesting to see, tom, whether a bp program, a gm program, a 9/11 compensation program, whether you are going to see those aberrations. they are out of the mainstream. you do not see them that often. whether corporate america will decide, you know, at the end of the day, we are better off setting up a quick program, get the money out to eligible claimants and avoid the american courtroom and the american legal system. olivia: what are the other lessons you learned? ken: efficiency. the main lesson i have learned. these programs are all about human nature. emotional. very, very emotional. when you pay people and you pay aem within months of disaster and they have lost a loved one, you had better brace yourself. because what you're going to hear is not a discussion about money. people vent about life's unfairness. why my son? tom: but we are venting right now. e newspapers of a polarized america. this morning, how does the legal system help america within the anger that we see at the iowa 16?e fair or onto november ken: you are expecting too much of the legal system. you're asking too much of lawyers likely asked to much of scientists and doctors. problems are not solved that easily. you cannot expect the lawyers to solve iowa emotion and political polarization. tom: i look at this. i have to ask responsively and respectfully, is a ted kennedy acolyte in washington, your thoughts on mr. trump. he is front and center. if he was to come to you for counsel, how would you say, mr. trump should address the anti-washington he hates? ken: mr. trump is very entertaining. he is a celebrity. mr.uldn't presume to tell trump how to behave in the world of politics. he is a very entertaining figure. his views are being promoted daily on kaylee -- on cable tv. i think law schools today -- unlike when i went in ancient times -- tom: this is after cromwell. ken: much more concerned about clinical training. clinical trend. -- you will represent the how you get training to go to court, how you mediate, how you arbitrate. in the old days in law school you learned property, you learned contracts, you learned torts. but now i think a lot of schools recognize they have an obligation. trainve an obligation to young would-be lawyers to make sure they know how to handle themselves in court. tom: hans, you know people that have been to the decision. it is august. first your lost students. what is your advice for the parents watching when they get the call from the kid? dad, i want to go to law school! ken: too many lawyers. too many law schools. olivia: the only jobs that are being created are compliance attorneys. ken: i counsel young students every day. do not go to law school just because you do not know what you're going to do. hans: should it be two years? ken: i think it should be but that is a minority view. do not go to law school to delay your entrance into the world. tom: that is what media is for. ken: go to law school if you want to be a lawyer. tom: we are thrilled to have you. ken feinberg. coming up, we had to the iowa state fair because we need to show you another image of the butter cow and corn. it is about food. mark halperin will join us. bloomberg "surveillance" ♪ ♪ everyone,morning, bloomberg "surveillance." olivia: crude oil is headed for the longest decline. prices dropped to their lowest levels in six years. energy agencynal says the market surplus will last through next year. since june last year, the price of oil has fallen about 60%. markets are still nursing a hangover, but china is leveling off. that is easing doubts about the country's economy. markets were mixed today, but some currencies weekend. malaysia's currency was hit with its biggest drop in 17 years. in havana, history in the making. for the first time in more than a century, the u.s. flag will fly in the country. the secretary of state will meet with his cuban counterparts, a catholic archbishop, and a group of dissidents. it is the latest step in the normalizing of relations pushed by the obama administration, but one issue, guantanamo, remains unsettled. >> would you try to capture more people as president? >> if the people have information that is important for us to keep our country safe, and they are organized to destroy us, yes, of course. >> where do you put that? >> we keep them there. >> where? >> inc. guantanamo. it is not a torture chamber. there is no other option that i can see. olivia: marco will denounce the administration's cuban outreach. the florida senator plans to say the president has made no effort to stand on the side of freedom. latest moves from goldman sachs show they want to go for what they know, financing. they are washing their hands of the coal business, selling at a steep loss. murray energy is going to pay $10 million for the asset, but goldman is buying an online banking unit from ge. aboutit has deposits work $16 billion, giving goldman a source of cheap funding. no terms have been disclosed for the deal, and regulators must still sign off. football, tomying brady in a patriots uniform instead of a three-piece suit. he was a surprise starter last night in a preseason loss to visiting green bay. he has been in and out of courtrooms lately, fighting his deflategate suspension. tom brady getting it done, at least for now. let's go to the bloomberg terminal. you look at that real gdp number, it is great, but within the mathematics of deflation, not so great, 7%, 6%. the ugliness, the rebound, and this is japan. this is a depression. hans: after your japan and elegy, we see a little bit of portugal. creditors thought they were headed in the right direction. when you look at what happened in this last quarter, the fundamentals could be prime for some growth. these are the german arguments. tom: what happens if syriza exits stage left? hans: you will have a wobbly coalition. parliament.seat if you have a coalition government north of 200, whether it is syriza or new democracy, you have this core center. that is what happened in all these other countries, they had political collapse, a center technical agreement, and a coalition that never happened in greece, and in some ways that is what syriza did. tom: i have had wonderful conversations over the past pople years with mr. pandreo. .ans: he has a difficult past a lot of the traditional parties in greece, i do not know rightly, but they are blamed for a lot of the mess, and they were cooking the numbers in the first place. difficulte, with a animal spirits, we need to do the animal spirit of a friday data check, but they need these headlines there is a lot going on. oil gets a lot busier. i would focus much more on the , inging markets as well indonesia and malaysia as well as chinese. to get some stability this morning within a decidedly managed flow, certainly the headline here it eat and mexico, the peso challenged as well to a new weakness. olivia: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am olivia sterns, here with tom keene and hans nichols. hans: it is the diverse of presidential candidates, the iowa state fair. our own bloomberg's politics mark halperin is enjoying the cornucopia. he asked jeb bush a very davos question, how will china's currency devaluation affect american workers? -- hans: mark, if my jealousy is not coming through, there is no other place i would rather be than the iowa state fair. mark: this fair is a big deal for iowans, so you have to come here if you are running for president. you get to meet people from all over the state who come here. if you do not come, you are snubbing one of their great traditions, and lots of great media. they will mix with voters, most of them will stand on the des moines register soapbox and take questions from fairgoers, which is an unusual moment. who is getting the most crowds? aside from the press pack, which is one indicator, who is getting the most crowds out there at the state fair question mark -- state fair? mark: it started yesterday, and my cup of the and -- mike huckabee was here. tomorrow, hillary clinton will be here, bernie sanders will be here, donald trump will be here. i suspect those three will draw the most crowd. jeb bush will be here today. we will see on a friday morning how big a crowd you can draw. olivia: what do iowans make of donald trump? a spectacle and for all the strength he is showing nationally, he has a bus that travels around the state emblazoned with his name. people like the celebrity and the outsider message. the reason why he is leading in the polls, for all the strength donald trump has. people who are supporting him are not focused on some of the weaknesses you might have as a candidate or president. they are focused on that outsider message. his slogan "take america great again" is something a lot are attracted to. tom: what he recognize this iowa state fair? mark: this event is a great spectacle. it goes beyond the fried food and kids rides. people in this political state fun, but it isve a spectacle and substance. tom: you have joe biden, al gore, hillary clinton, donald trump, it is all about the negatives. how important is the negative ratings versus the enthusiasm they are trying to gender? mark: i think it is almost a certainty that whoever this state elects as the next president, will have americans feeling passionately negative about him. it will be difficult for somebody like hillary clinton, jeb bush, or donald trump to unite the country in the way that bill clinton and barack obama promised to. a lot of negative ideas that americans have about politicians. olivia: buzz feed has been reporting that al gore is thinking about running. -- the that the present vice president is in south carolina. what are you hearing about either of these guys throwing their hat into the race? mark: i do not think either of those guys are all that likely. point they wanted to be president and both served as vice president. hillary clinton has some weaknesses within the party, but she still has locked up a lot of the establishment. people are an easy about her negatives, but i think hillary clinton will be the establishment candidate. tom: mark halperin, thank you so much. tonight he will interview them utter cow. question,ur twitter what is your signal that oil has hit bottom? bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ ♪ tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." to talk financials, he likes to talk auto bodies. to two point 7 million shares. and all that, a successful secondary offering in the stock price bounces up. forget about that, we are going to bring in that miller and talk about the stuff we like to talk about. i go to the website and they are trying to sell me a tesla. or they that desperate to move the next marginal auto unit? matt: i think that is just a fun little thing. nobody buys a tesla for gas savings. anyone who goes to the tesla website comes to a price of more than $100,000. it is not like you are saving a ton of money in gas. the marginal savings that you get are not really significant. tom: frame for me the arch question, is an auto company doing nothing, financing itk's dreams, or is legitimate from where you sit? matt: if you are talking about the product, it is an amazing product. know if it ist to an auto company that enjoys losing money. olivia: some of this money will go to funding giga factories. matt: certainly they will use some of it to fund some of those things, but elon musk said they will be dropping by 2020. they have turned a profit in the past. i do not want to say it is like amazon, but when they want to, but could turn a profit, they would rather reinvest in this business and other businesses. the giga factory will make a huge difference on the future of tesla. it will make cars and batteries cheaper. tom: is the battery factory cash positive at some point? , as: definitely not until far away as it does not matter anymore to forecast. tom: you were in italy last weekend. did you ride a tesla? olivia: no, but there are a whole lot more solar panels. tom: give me the color on this. forget about the bells and whistles. what is your take on it as an auto company? matt: they have made an amazing product they previously no one could, and all electric powered car that drives like a dream. it sticks to the ground, you cannot flip it over. on-call,e is instant, and it has a 300 mile range, which i think is a lot. i feel like that is a pretty decent range, and you can charge it in a half hour. hans: it is a status symbol. matt: i do not think it is a status symbol. i think it is a -- tom: does portia make money? matt: they make a ton of money. byy are going to make money 2020. tom: i am a skeptic. matt miller, thank you. stay with us. ♪ ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. it was the implosion of a few years ago, jcpenney down 73%. olivia, you have the breaking news. surging,cpenney shares after they beat on the bottom and top line because they just did report a loss, but the loss was $.45. tom: there was a heartbeat, cops were not bad -- comps were not bad. olivia: compare that to what we heard from macy's who cut their forecast and will see no sales growth. margaret allison has been the ceo for a little while and is calling for strength in men's, and jewelry. tom: macy's again this week, a little soggy to say the least. let's get to our top headlines and here again, olivia sterns. navinder sarao could be freed as early as today. he has been held for nearly four months and the judge change the terms of his bail. he is accused of playing a role in the so-called flash crash five years ago. general motors recalling more than 73,000 of its chevy cobalt's in the u.s. and canada. improper wiring could prevent the roof mounted driver-side airbag from deploying after a crash. this affects 2010 cobalt's. artifacts wereey sold last night a graceland. among the highlights, one of his personal handguns selling for $96,000, and a racquetball shirt , that went for $32,000. tom: very cool. let's move on to an important global wall street discussion. it is a maxim, the successive test successful ceo wants the underlings making more money than him. that is true at jpmorgan. at mr. dimonnces and mr. pinto. .en feinberg ken: the 2009 meltdown, resulting in congress putting pay on the front burner. tom: it drives me insane when people conflate equity compensation and bonus with salary. are they the same? same, butare not the why don't you look at both? tom: you can look at both, but can you conflate the risk of equity appreciation in the certitude of the salary? ken: no, you cannot. what we did when i was back at treasury was we made that distinctly -- distinction between guarantee, base, salary, and cast compensation -- cash compensation. stock over a long. . time, andg period of told the cc -- ceo. tom: did you succeed? ken: we succeeded, it was sort of a populous dream. tom: but have you succeeded? ken: no, this was a point in time, populous revenge. you remember, tom, i was on the show. olivia: i was five. ken: that statute was a keyhole in time. you will never see that again. governors setting pay. hans: unless there is another crisis and there is great outrage again. think the likelihood of the government interfering and making decisions on what a private corporate official will make, that is not america. that is not the way we do things, and you have never seen that statute replicated. olivia: the sec approved a pay ratio. is that a populous revenge? ken: yes, it is. i think it is a good idea. i think the more sunlight you bring to how ceos get paid, with the factors are, what they have to disclose, just to let the public and shareholders and employees know, i think that transparency is a valuable step in the right direction. tom: is the sec on the right path with the ratio analysis? hans: i do not know enough about it. tom: they want to take the hitters money and compare it to the medium of anything else. ken: i think anything the sec is doing to throw out for the public to consider ratios, what characteristics of pay are relevant, i think all of that educationally is a good idea. olivia: but actually, all those figures are out there. median salary, with the ceo makes, they are out there. the ratio, critics say are useless. it is very difficult to calculate. you could get rid of 5% of foreign employees. ken: i think the fact that the sec is waiting in is a good idea. olivia: they are only weighing in his dodd-frank. feinberg, i think this is so important, do we go after ceos because they make too much money, or do we go after ceos that make poor stock performance while they make a lot of money? ken: i think the latter, but what you mean go after. tom: the marketplace goes after. ken: i have not heard anybody in government suggest the government should be involved. tom: could you do something about the red sox? ken: those will be tough shoes to fill. olivia: maybe you can mediate deflategate. tom: that is well said. ken: i'm still trying to figure out deflategate. olivia: we all are. we have to run to our radio. we asked you, what is your signal that oil has hit water? is it that tom gets a good night sleep? our first answer, what bottom? will not curb and with the ron the oversupply will be at two million barrels a day. gary says, oil is going down, it is a buy signal. r this on earlie morning, and is holding. answer, whenal middle east leaders invite elon musk to their palace and urge them to lower tesla production numbers. ken, what do you think? it is a hard call. hans: i think the tesla point is a fair one. how are their sales going to be affected? this is still a very high and purchase, and to what extent, you want to look about the sale prices of ford. we can all have a conversation about when we think oil is going to hit the bottom, pick back up. none of us know. we would much rather be in riyadh, having conversations with saudi ministers. olivia: the discrepancy between what gdp looks like in greece, the nominal level which shows a contraction level of 1%, the difference being inflation. what impact is cheap oil having on europe? hans: as ken was saying, he does not believe the wealth effect will make consumers feel welcome here. the third quarter in greece be a lot worse because that is going to capture the capital controls and the shutdown of the banks. olivia: time now for the agenda. oil,watching the price of watching when west texas will fall below $40 a barrel? hans: i am going to turn in the assignment and say he can find -- send 10 firebird to brussels -- ken feinberg to brussels. i think it will be important to see what the latvian say, what the german say, can we get a deal through the german parliament? olivia: at 9:45, history in the making. secretary of state john kerry will be in havana to raise the american flag outside the cuban embassy. two soldiers who took down the flag in 1961 will be back to raise it back. hans: it will be interesting to see how cuba plays in the presidential -- i suspect not. i think puerto rico could have a better impact -- a bigger impact. kerry, whether you agree with what he is doing or not as a foreign-policy issue, his travel agenda -- olivia: and with a broken leg. ken: too bad he does not get frequent-flier matters -- miles, because you have to give him credit. olivia: ken feinberg, we are going to leave it there. thank you to hans nichols. bloomberg "surveillance" continues on radio. ♪ ♪ announcer: live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers." with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. good morning. it is friday. you are watching "market makers ." two glorious hours of news. all the stuff you need to note and your weekend begin your weekend. i am erik schatzker. matt: i am matt miller. on the agenda, greece. china. oil forever and ever. apple. we could do a show on this every day. erik: health care technology is matt: coming up this hour. -- erik: health care technology is coming up this hour. greek law officials approved the third bailout. the three-year plan has been approved after an all-night debate. this could bring greece 85 billion euros. none too soon. greece mucst make a large paymet six days from now. primus or alexis tsipras urged passage