Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240622 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240622

Tom lets begin our friday coverage. Here are top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie they would have had real snow, where beijing will have to import snow. Representatives of the ecb, imf and European Union are meeting in athens with the cabinet minister. Tsipras made troika a dirty word during the campaign. There is a rebellion among members of his party. He told lawmakers today he never had time to lead greece out of the euro. Shares of linkedin are falling in premarket trading. The professional networking website forecast revenue. There is concern that linkedins growth is slowing down in its core business. President obama is warning that opponents of the nuclear deal with iran are putting the squeeze on congress. He held a Conference Call with allies last night and said supporting that it will be tough for lawmakers i can tell when they start getting squishy. A Top Lobbying Group is pressing for the deal to be rejected. And fitness fanatics cannot get enough of soul cycle. The chain is endorsed cycling studios has filed for an ipo. It has a cultlike following. It is close to 40 for a 45minute session. There are 48 soul cycle locations across the country. Tom this has been at pinyon to for 12 this has been a pinata for 12 hours. We are doing no evil. Brendan theyre bringing soul to the people, tom. Vonnie none of us, i believe have ever had a soul cycle session. Brendan and all of us live in new york. How is that possible . Tom let me do a data check before we get too smart coverage through the hour on commodities. Futures at negative two. What you need to know now is all the focus this friday morning is on oil and gold. Oil down one point 9 . It is beginning to be a larger percent as we oil down 1. 9 . It is beginning to be a larger percentage. Complacency in the equity markets. That is a remarkable vix. The german 10year, 0. 24 when i walked in. Now it is at. 022. Bring at 0. 22. Lets go into the bloomberg terminal and look at gold. This is a chart and slope matters. This is an ugly, ugly chart through the morning. Down we go. It is called a quadratic, and the quadratic is ugly, and further ugly this morning. Brendan will stay with this for the next six months, as we were when oil dropped alone. We will see the second order of the second order effects for a while. Tom many other watchers of gold expecting 900 per ounce. It is friday. They are focused tick by tic. We will look at it throughout the entire hour, and latin america, australia. First we must go to london and compare notes with jon ferro. You are trying to get out of the office early in london, yet gold cannot find a bid. Why is that . Jon i do not think it is just this morning, it has been the whole month. It is the worst month in a number of years. You have to go back to june 2013 for a month this bad for gold. But you have to talk about the whole commodity perspective. Brent had a dreadful month, gold had a dreadful month. It has been that bad. Tom what is the sweat in the city . You live in the land on margin calls the land of margin calls on commodities. Jon some funds have been closing down, but what you are seeing is the second shift through the company. You guys are going to talk about reveal. Look at what a lot of people have had to adapt. You see that in the old earnings as well. You see it right across the commodity complex. Tom jon ferro, thank you for staying with us on your friday afternoon out of london. We will get brazil at this hour. We focus on the global commodity route in this hour. Things are not good for brazil. And latin america. Our guest is going to be in buenos aires what, tuesday . I will be there monday morning. Tom Donald Gimbel has been with surveillance for years and has truly an expertise on australia. We will dive deeper into australia later. I want you to bring the effectiveness worldwide. How does australia adapt and adjust Interest Rate and equity markets for the rest of the world . Don we will get there. Tom it is not smooth. It is that thing we cannot see right . D don the country has been trying to move itself away from a Natural Resource base, and they have in terms of the population, but in terms of the economy it is still dominated by mining. Tom you are expecting knocked down commodity effect in the United Kingdom the united states, and Continental Europe . Don we now have more Natural Resources than the world can consume over the near term. Tom and that is microeconomics. Brendan for a straley a right now, is the chinese demand for commodities for australia right now, is the chinese demand for commodities the only story . Don it is the number one story. The rest of the world is staggering for rose. For growth. Tom i want you to bring us up on something we will not talk about this hour, which is the fiction that is venezuela. We got your watch on latin america, and then there is this thing. How critical is the venezuelan fragility to the rest of latin america this friday morning . There is not going to be much contagion but what happens in venezuela is a question of bad policy mixed with the plunge in oil, which is affecting the rest of latin america is a well of latin america as well. Brendan connected to venezuela is also the opening up in cuba. We will talk about that in the next hour with congress. Katia for the rest of the caribbean, that will not be an issue for many years i would think. Sure, there is concern in puerto rico and the rest of the caribbean and the dominican republic. Tom how are they linked, don gimbel . We are also linked with australia, but there is a particular language with there is a particular linkage with the economy. Don there is a linkage with chile and oil and other parts of latin america. It ties in with latin american exports. Vonnie there is a 20 decline in its currency in just a year going from 92 to 72. How long can that go on . Don the people who invest in currencies or wolfsburg because nobody ever knows. The downside to be another . 10 i would think the people who invest in currencies are fools because nobody ever knows. The downside could be another . 10, i would think. I could make another educated guess as to where the aussie is going, but now i think there is downward pressure, as there is on the loony in canada. Brendan don says only fools make currency bets. Kazakhstan no movement. Ties extend does not get the olympics kazakhstan does not get the olympics. Nothing happens. Tom we have instant access to the thank you dollar cross. Brendan coming up, linkedin continues to grow in popularity. What about revenue . We will take a look at the companys latest results. It is also time for our twitter question of the day. Would you invest in seoul cycle . In seoulsoul cycle . We have not. Please let me go to break as soon as humanly possible. Please take us out of here. Tom good morning, everyone. If you are just joining Us Commodities soft today. Gold and oil soggy as well. Vonnie california ordered a mandatory cutback in water usage last month, and People Living there did better than expected. Water use in california fell 20 p. M. Percent fell 27 in june. California struggling through one of the worst droughts in history. Windows 10 jumps out of the starting gate. Microsoft says its new operating system is already on 14 million commuters on 14 Million Computers days after its release. It is a Free Download for those updating. George h. W. Bush did not hurt his sense of humor when he fell and broke a bone in his neck. He went to twitter to thank wellwishers. He is famed for making parachute jumps on his birthday writing who knew that jumping out of planes was safer than getting out of bed . He turned 91 just last month. Tom i wonder if he is on linkedin. Brendan linkedin report yesterday sales. Hall sweeney is the head of research for bloomberg intelligence. I am going to read you a quote. Does linkedin play by the same rules . Paul they get revenue from advertising but they also get revenue from recruiters. Investors can see this as a really interesting model. That said, they have two quarters in a row that was a wild ride. It really hurt their stock. They came back this quarter, had a very good quarter in terms of what the street was looking for and they Beat Estimates for the quarter. Then they put out guidance that initially looked very strong and the stock traded up. But when you dug into the numbers investors started saying maybe the core business was not growing. Brendan Piper Jaffray pointed out as well that the thing to focus on is that they have revenue membership membership revenue. Paul it is recurring, which investors like, and it is very high margin. Tom having don gimbel on the set, he does not buy anything with a pe under 10. Is this like 1999 again . Don absolutely. You are talking more what is the trade, not what is the investment. Tom even if i get a cash flow from paul sweeneys good membership cash flow, that is not an investment . Don listen, we could talk about amazon in the same venue. For some people it is a great investment. For me i like to see dividends and growth. Brendan are we in pets. Com territory . Paul this has been over the last 5, 6, 7 years the latest tech rally, a much different story here. Real business models, revenue real profit with facebook and so on. Brendan my feeling about social networks is that you only need them when you are looking for a date or a job. That is particularly true with linkedin. Paul the engagement for folks at linkedin, not only is their audience growing, but their engagements are staying longer. If you are an advertiser, that are that is your two key metrics. They put more compelling content on there, so you see people posting all kinds of content video content, images, text content. When you get there there are reasons to stay, that is what the metrics are showing. Vonnie how long will it take to bring people in . Paul the linden. Com acquisition is a big deal for the company, and generally it will broaden their suite of recruitment told recruitment tools, knowledge tools. Vonnie will it be accretive though . Paul we will see. Tom kocher pours a cant ski is with us. Katia porzecanski is with us. How do you use linkedin to write stories . Katia when you are a reporter working in the financial industry, it is difficult to find the right people covering the right things, and with linkedin you can narrow your search. I can say i need somebody who is an expert in fixed income at barclays. Tom so you would know that right away. Brendan you can find people who used to work at a company who might be willing to now talk about what they used to do now that they are gone. Tom we talked about twitter as an acquisition candidate. Islington and i was it is linkedin and acquisition candidate for google . Paul it is possible. If i am linkedin i feel like i have a great runway of growth here. Twitter, on the other hand might be a different story. Tom paul sweeney, thank you so much. We look at australia and latin america in this hour. We have an important twitter question. Cap it back. Would you invest in seoulsoul cycle . Anybody on wall street, read the red herring. They out Google Google from 2004. Brendan, should we do this . Brendan we should get out of the break as cleanly as possible. Tom why cant i get 1000 shares . Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Friday morning and the morning mustread with brendan. Brendan looking at netflix this morning netflixs global ambitions revitalize that of hbo. The prospect of vast has sacrificed tom i did not know you were going to do this. Netflix has changed in the last 60 days. It is like a global thing all of a sudden. Brendan they have different challenges in different continents. In europe, the dynamic is a lot like it is in the u. S. In asia, they are competing against piracy, and that is a different challenge. Tom don gimbel, you have lived this. Is there a new religion on copyright in china . Don no. There is a lot of pressure to make it important, but as of yet, you can still get whatever you want. Brendan copyright traditionally becomes more important, but we are not there yet with china. Don that is how i see it. Vonnie is it all just chatter . Don you would have to ask jack. Tom i am glad that vonnie brings this up. There is almost not a frenzy but a fervor to it, of jack ma. How is he perceived in your asian world . Don he combines close relations with very deep pockets because of his american investments. He is unique in china in that he does not need money which has come into other companies in peculiar ways. Tom do you own shares in alibaba . Don never have. We have had lots of conversations, me and bloomberg, when it went public. I wanted to give it a year to see where he was going to go with his money, and i am still sort of waiting and washington. I am still sort of waiting and washing waiting and watching. Tom coming up, we are going to look with mr. Gimbel at australia and the challenges the Australian Dollar imploding with a brutal move. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to top headlines. Here is vonnie quinn. Vonnie beijing has been selected to host the 2022 winter olympic. There is one major flaw a lack of natural snow. Ahmadi in kazakhstan was hurt from being selected. Alexis tsipras turned troika into a dirty word during his election campaign. Now one of his cabinet members is meeting in athens with representatives of the eu ecb, and imf. The three are blamed for austerity measures that have hurt greeces economy. But tsipras needs to come up with 94 billion worth of bailout aid. Balloons are being used to lift drones 90,000 feet and transmitting information with lasers. Facebook has given up some details of the technical challenges it faces. The drones will have the wingspan of the 737 and weigh as much as a toyota prius. There are a lot of people who do not live within range of a network, and drones and satellites and laser king medication is one way to do it. Microwave communication is another. That will be Cost Effective conductivity where there are no existing cell phone towers or infrastructure. Vonnie getting more people online can add facebook users. In cincinnati the white Police Officer who shot a black man during a traffic stop has been freed on bail. He pleaded not guilty to a charge of voluntary manslaughter. Other officers are on leave while the case is being investigated. Officials in zimbabwe want to extradite the american dentist who killed a lion. Walter palmer has said that he legally hunted the lions. Officials say it was lee Officials Say it was illegally lured out of it sanctuary. American authorities are also investigating. Tom there is a huge uproar over this. They are considering extending it to all other wildlife. Brendan all my friends who are hunters were deeply offended at the way he did it, letting the animal suffer as he dragged it out. Tom the Russian Central Bank is moving on a key rate. The russian ruble again, well out over 60. Lets go to that right now. There was that bridge in planet of the apes. Of course, that is the sum, the total knowledge that many of us have with australia. We need a briefing as australia faces massive challenges. Commodities implode. For decades there is a particularly sharp focus on southeast asia. Is there a dutch disease here . Is what is happening to rio tinto and bhp billiton does it not affect melbourne or sydney . Don of course it does. It affects employment, to begin with, and the miners have been laying off people, not just around the world but in australia also. There is a lot of pressure in australia. The relatively new government is under a lot of pressure to do something, and historically this is a country that exports Mineral Wells and agriculture. It is unfortunate, with the now 26 Million People they have a problem of generating internal growth the way larger countries do. Tom bring up the gdp chart showing the implosion in europe, animal spirit. 50 years ago, this was has it really become part of the immediate Global Community . Don the big change in australia in the last 50 years is tourism. The first time i went there, it was like island fever. Oh my god, there is somebody from out of the country we have to have a dinner party for them today. Tourism is big for australia but nowhere near mineral and agriculture. Brendan one of the difficulties australia is happening in making a transition to a Global Economy is household debt. Does australia have to deleverage . Tom is it like spain . Don please do not call me an expert. The dead load in australia is reasonable the debt load in australia is reasonably high but not to the level of other countries. The problem in australia is finding something, because of the distances, finding something that they can do that they can export, other than mineral wealth, which they have reasonably in abundance. But something that the cost of transportation does not eat them alive. Maybe they will figure Something Else out. Not right now. Brendan we talk about drought in california, and it has been much more severe in australia. Don it is a huge problem in australia. The number of farmers losing their stations is getting it is not getting any publicity outside of australia, and not a hell of a lot in australia. I read a seven page report the other day blaming the banks for the drought. That is kind of crazy. Brendan when you talk about farmers losing their stations are we talking about a problem like in the 1930s . Don exactly good point. Farmers on the land for 2, 3, 4 generations cannot grow anything, and the banks are saying, i hate to do this, but you are going to have to move. The banks are being blamed for this, whereas the shareholders are saying you have to do that. Vonnie will it help with the Federal Reserve raising rates . Don it is too late for australia. The el nino effect is serious. Tom we decided to put a small contingent of marines on the tip of queensland. It is like on page four of some International Relations article. What is the significance of our relationship with australia, and then with the Foreign Policy or regional policy, of china . How does that triangulation fit

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