Hear what the Federal Reserve says about Interest Rates after wrapping up its today policy meeting. Its twoday policy meeting. A survey by bloomberg put the odds of a september increase at about 50 . In china, a late rally in stocks. The composite the shanghai composite index rose 3. 4 halting a fallen a fallen one at 11 . The government reports Oil Inventory figures a few hours from now. The congressional review of the Iran Nuclear Deal is entering a new phase today. Managers will hear from defense secretary ash carter and joint chief martin dempsey. House panel quiz secretary of state john kerry yesterday. The more jack dorsey kept talking, the more twitter stocks fell. Down as much as 14 premarket the stock went up yesterday when twitter posted secondquarter revenue that beat estimates. Jack dorsey have not yet had meaningful impact on growing our audience or participation. This is unacceptable and we are not happy about it. Over the past few weeks i have had a deeper understanding of where i need to focus our team. Vonnie among regular users, fewer than half check twitter every day. In pro football, it looks like there will be a court battle before tom brady plays in the game this weekend. Roger goodell has upheld the fourgame suspension for the quarterback for the deflategate scandal. He says that brady tried to conceal. The Players Union says it will appeal. Those are top headlines. Tom did he dropped his phone into a drink . We have all done that, right . Vonnie the question is intense, tom. Tom lets look at our equities bonds, currencies, commodities. Our data check right now. The euro has gone nowhere for a week. Crude oil is well below brent crude is soggy as well. On to the next screen, if you would. The vix 13. 44. The dow down. The ruble gets up that level a stronger ruble this morning. One indication of commodity pain a week brazilian rail. We are almost back from this agony. Brendan we have a redecision coming up today from the Brazilian Central Bank. It is impossible to really do justice to how important psychologically the strength of the currency is to brazil. When they established a currency, they called it the real because it meant a real currency, a solid currency and this is something that has been so crucial. Tom would you explain to everyone here these good years . How did a socialist come in and we get a marital . Was and we get a miracle . Brendan everyone expected him to be an oldtime socialist, like hugo chavez, but he was not. He did amazing work on Poverty Reduction in brazil and it rested on his ability to keep the economy going. Tom there it is, brazil with challenges today. It is fed day. Tomorrow brings in a calculation of how we measure our economic rose. It is all belted into one. Janet yellen is suggesting that america is doing better. Michael mckee is Senior Vice President of reality for all of bloomberg surveillance. He is with us this morning. And jeffrey davis. Michael what do i need to look for at 2 00 p. M. This afternoon . Arent i bored stiff . Michael Hillary Clinton was running for president last time in 2008. Brendan when is she not running for president . Michael for six years we have been saying that what they say is more important than they do come and this may be the last meeting at which we do that. Everyone is looking at changes to the statement to see clues as to when they might rate when they might raise Interest Rates. There is no news conference, no dot plot no economic forecast. Tom i was watching elizabeth last night, that magnificent Kate Blanchette movie from 20 years ago. Janet yellen has a palace court. What are you watching today e . Michael you could parse the statement. Look for what they might tweak when they talk about economic growth, is the economy getting stronger, and will we see advances continue in the labor market . Is the labor market getting stronger . Are we seeing any growth in inflation going forward. The most important thing everyone says to watch for do they drop the word nearly from their assessment. Tom it is like deflategate. Brendan i want to do some roleplay. We have geoff dennis here. Michael mckee, you are playing the role of janet yellen. Explain to him, as a proxy for the world markets, why everything is going to go ok. Michael the markets have already priced in, we have sent enough signals, and we are going to sense a more signals in today, we help. Geoff i think michael is right. To a large extent the fed has moved priced in. Tom are they adjusting to the higher u. S. Rates . Geoff two is certain extent. You have had a commodities selloff. The fed is going to raise rates anyway, because of the u. S. Economy. To a certain extent, it has been priced in, even to emerging. Tom in the United Kingdom they make the pageantry of the red suitcase, the brown suitcase. Does janet yellen get a suitcase with tomorrows report in it . Michael she will get the numbers probably in advance, but not in time for todays meeting. Tom why would they do that . That seems stupid. Geoff that is the q2 number. What matters for what janet yellen is doing is all the numbers we are getting now. What does it look like as we head toward the end of the year. The housing numbers have been mixed. We think they are going to raise rates probably in september, and one of our basic point is they want to get away from zero. That is what youre getting that is what janet yellen is all about. They want to cut them down the road. Brendan mike, what do you think is going to happen . Michael the economists we have talked to say september is most likely, lesser chance going forward, but may adjust because they are data dependent. We have those code jobs reports, the gdp report tomorrow the revision of gdp, and a number of revision numbers when they meet again. It will change a 2 01 once everybody sees the statement and he will change data point by data point. If we get a bad report on august 7 and right now were not expecting one, we could see september fall out. But the odds are it is going to move heavier toward september. Brendan what caught my attention yesterday was rushing was russian banks going to hong kong. Will we get emerging markets looking elsewhere for debt issues . Geoff there has been some dislocation for russian Financial Markets for the last several months, partly because of the fallout from the ukrainian crisis the imposition of sanctions etc. So they probably want to go to different markets to raise capital. Financial markets in the end are more robust and liquid than they used to be. I do not see this particularly as a trend. We like the russian equity market right now. Tom the probability of a rate hike from the bloomberg terminal 39 september, 69 by december as well. Michael mckee, thank you so much. Michael will be going to washington for the 2 00 p. M. Meeting. I think it says palm steakhouse tonight. We will have the fed decision at 2 00 p. M. This afternoon, not to 15. Not to 15. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Vonnie quinn and Brendan Greeley with me this morning. Here are top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie there are reports now that the leader of the afghan caliban is dead. According to the bbc, afghan Officials Say mullah Mohammed Omar died three years ago. The taliban says they will have a statement shortly. There have been reports about his death in the past. The british bank posted secondquarter earnings in line with estimates. The chairman is pressing asset sales. Early this month, John Mcfarlane fired the ceo to pick up the pace of the overhaul. For the yankees, the hits keep on coming. The new york yankees fell behind the Texas Rangers 50 last night in the first inning, then scored 21 runs in a row, including 11 in the second. Final score, yankees 21 rangers five. New york has won 16 of its 21 games this month. Those are your top headlines. Brendan they are going all the way, scarlet fu. Vonnie there is another team in new york. Tom excuse me, i am periscope it. Brendan jack dorsey trimmed his beard. There was a 60 a 16 jump in revenue, and then he broke everybodys hearts, said that the company is not aligned. What do we want jack dorsey to do . And a lot of people are waiting for an update related to what twitters vision is going to be, and frankly who the ceo is going to be. It is not clear and i think people expected jack dorsey yesterday to indicate that he really was not in the running for that permanent role. I think people have concerns about that. Vonnie can he run two companies . Scott i think it is unlikely. Twitter put out a release a couple weeks ago indicating they did not want a parttime ceo. That to a large extent took jack dorsey out of the running. Brendan do you see it as a strategic shift that they can take or they or do they need more fundamentals to get right first . Scott if you think about twitter what astounds me is the sentiment is negative, people focus on the user growth, but the reality is they grew at 61 forex, 68 . This is a healthy growth company. Tom so it is an acquisition candidate. Is google the natural acquirer . Scott if there is an acquisition here, google would make sense softbank, that i dont know that people should be banking on an acquisition. There is a value here, and the sentiment provides that opportunity. Vonnie we are periscope and right now and it is a lot of fun, but can it make any money . Scott it is fair to say that people are interested in and are engaging with periscope like we are right now. Obviously you reference the fact that the call yesterday was periscoped. Thousands of people tuned in to see that. Monetization is probably a wild down the road. Tom how long do they have to play the twitter game versus Adult Companies that have to actually show precash flows . Scott i think if you look next year, were looking at . 60 to . 70 in earnings. I think it is very attractive given the growth that we just talked about with revenues over 60 in the last quarter. Brendan there was a note from a twitter shareholder about two months ago saying that they need to do two things one is focus on events, and two is to finally kill the timeline. Are those things going to happen . Scott they are focusing on events. That is one thing that is an emphasis, and eventsrelated products. Brendan to toms obsession, how does that make money . Scott if you can organize users and engagement around defense, that will result in more targeted advertising. Tom how strong is facebook this week . Google plus will step away from competing with facebook. The answer is this is a moment for facebook, right . Scott it is. Everyone is watching facebook to see what they are going to do. Expectations have been tendered. The reality is that we think facebook is firing on all cylinders. It is a Strong Growth Company and they have a lot of levers to accelerate gains. People under appreciate what they have been able to do. Tom a shout out to david kirkpatrick, who never gave up on facebook. Vonnie can i just say you were periscope thing, tom . Brendan we are going to our twitter question of the day. Appropriately enough, does microsoft matter . I think scott i think microsoft matters, it is just a different kind of company. Brendan no longer definitional to what technology is. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning to a beautiful new york city, and a bit of a heat wave. I can say that because i am privileged to be in airconditioning today. It is fed day. It is also time for a morning must read. Here is brendan. Brendan in the newly nikkeied financial times. The starting point for any solution to the greek crisis should not be to ask who is to blame. Better than nonsentimentalism better than nonjudgmentalisnm of st. Lukes gospel. Geoff dennis is with us again. Is there an understanding in europe that creditors face a moral hazard . Geoff yes, i think there is. Without any question. What we think is one of the issues as far as europe is concerned is the fact that all of the adjustment being forced all of the adjustment is being forced on the deficit countries, the countries that are under pressure. You would like to see more pressure on the surface countries such as germany, holland, to expand the colonies. But if they put more money toward greece, which is what is happening, there will be potentially the demand to do the same thing for other countries down the road. That is the risk of this whole crisis. Brendan did you see that same moralizing tone that john k writes about . Geoff schauble, within the german government, then you have these smaller Baltic States and some of the Eastern European states who are incredibly hard line. It is very hard to do. Frankly, although our view is this has kicked the can down the road and greece avoids a deficit for the time being, it cannot compete longterm. Tom in the last three days we have seen greecegerman spreads widen for whatever reason. Can they still kick the can down the road until another crisis . Geoff i think so. They do not have a lot of debt repayments now over the next two to three years. The point is, what this will do is push the Greek Economy even further down. It is already contracted by 26 over the last seven years. How much more can you take . Vonnie and emergingmarket geoff i think you keep an eye on it, but if you get the wrong links of gdp growth and Interest Rates did we mention brazil a few weeks it a few minutes ago . Interest rates are low enough and not in crisis. It is a bit of a sideshow. When things get ugly there are things you have to focus on because the dynamics can deteriorate pretty fast. Tom we get Employment Statistics rates august 6. Stan collender will join us on americas fiscal deficit. Robert schiller as well. It is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Fed day today. Worldwide, top headlines, here is vonnie quinn. Vonnie investors will be looking for signals from the fed today as policymakers wrapup that twoday meeting. We may get a hint about when they will raise Interest Rates for the First Time Since 2006. And Bloomberg Economist says there is about a 50 chance of a rate hike in september. Heading for a deadend, on the highway bill, Congress Takes a shortcut. An extension will keep transportation money flowing but only for three months. They could not agree on a longterm plan and they are racing toward their august vacation. Fox is letting everyone into the act for the first president ial debate for republicans. There will be not one but two debates on august 6 in cleveland , one for the top 10 candidates and a second for the other six. Brendan i have a theory that this is a conscious attempt to dilute the influence of donald trump. Vonnie they would not qualify under the old rules. Microsofts new operating system windows 10 was released at midnight. In the past, a release of windows would have sparked a surge of computer buying, but that is unlikely to happen this time. This is a pursuit this is a pretty significant watch for anyone who uses pcs and wants to get things done with technology. We have had big windows launches that have brought in things like windows 95 and i think with windows 10 we will reignite peoples excitement around pcs. We are going to rejuvenate it. Vonnie microsoft is offering windows 10 as an update for existing pcs. In philadelphia, an eightyearold boy is believed to be the artist ever to have both hands transplanted. Ryan harvey appeared at Childrens Hospital at a news conference. He lost both his hands to infection. Pretty amazing. Kudos to the doctors involved there. Tom amazing. Brendan could it can be any cuter . Tom it is the call that pushes against the china gloom for Geoffrey Dennis suggesting a soft landing. The stock market close, but for centuries the chinese have somehow adjusted. They adapt nobody does it like they do. Since 2015, they adjust to imploding commodities. Geoff dennis is the head of em for ubs. When we look at 7 down to a presumed 3 , you push back against that . Geoff we assume that Growth Continues to slow gradually. We have 6 growth this year, 6. 5 next year. The stock market declines 30 or so with the asian market. With the commodity decline, it is making everybody think the economy is going to perhaps be the weaker than that. As the stock market declines, the argument is that it was not because of the economy, and a stock market decline would not necessarily impact the economy. They are independent. We know the economy is ok although recently there is some downside risk. Tom do we overweight how china is hinged on these other nations like brazil, like indonesia . Geoff i do not think we do. With respect to mining for sure. It is closely tied to some of the other manufacturing countries within asia itself, so you have seen some concern about taiwan etc. I think it is very closely tied because china accounts for Something Like 40 plus of the global consumption, and there will be pressure on the exporters. I do not think we overplay that at all. Brendan in china you sit equities go up and down for technical reasons. Are they tied to the government treatment of credit . Geoff i think government policy is contributing to a certain extent. For the central bank to ease policy to support the market or for china policy to bring the market down, it is the direct intervention in the market that people do not like to see. But the actual run up that you had had very little to do with credit policy per se. It had to do with the sense that the change in the ability of foreigners to invest in the a share market last year caused resale to buy the Chinese Market on the view that foreigners were coming. Then it got too expensive and the government was concerned and took a few measures and it rolled down again. I say technical.