Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20240622 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Countdown June 22, 2024

Countdown. Lets start with twitter and the roller coaster that was the share price. The initial reaction to the number bound bounce was positive, jack dorsey started to speak candidly about the shortcomings of the business that is when investors started to rethink and the stock fell. Fascinating roller coaster ride. Lets talk about what has happened in the u. S. More broadly u. S. Stocks calling time on the longest losing streak since january in yesterdays session. Stock was up, better than estimated reports. Ups, pfizer ford, coming in better. It paints a positive picture so far. Mma in europe talks yesterday help as well. Lets move to the question the morning on twitter, whats could threaten the m a wave . You could find me on twitter. Lets talk about what is happening in the asian session. Over to china now, as the countrys equity index swings. Our market reporter from hong kong joins us for the latest. Juliet it has been a fluctuating market. Asian markets followed in general, that positive look that the u. S. Experienced. You can see the strong gain coming through in australia, led by a curtail in the falling commodity prices. The s p up, as well as oil and gas players. A different story on the shanghai composite it had that 8. 5 plunge on monday, security regulators now looking into that volatility we actually saw the shanghai composite open higher by more than 1 . It is now down by. 3 . A little bit of weakness coming through in japan, the nikkei is down. Air china has come back online after it slump its slump. Shares falling the most in seven years. The age shares lifted listed in hong kong down by 7 . Banks did well yesterday on the cop as it shanghai composite. Still weakness coming through on the overall Mainland China sector. A robot maker is falling down by almost 12 . Japan retail sales are up. The big gain coming through in australia as iron ore prices rebound as well as gold. Anna thank you very much. Lets turn our attention to the united states. All eyes are on the fm oc as it releases its policy statement at 7 00 in the evening london time. What can we expect from the decision . We have a few clips from Industry Leaders in new york. Pimco reminded it was only recently that the fed acknowledged a need for the liftoff. For the First Time Ever she said the economy needs higher Interest Rates. I think that shows the fed is coming around. They do not like being at zero. As Stanley Fischer said, we will still have an incredibly commodity to have policy. We will still have with the. List off. Anna investors will be scouring for any hint about what the fed could do in september. What would be market look like of the market look like . If you look at the markets, i think it is about 40 price for a september rate hike. Some Officials Say it is a 5050 proposition. I would expect a modest reaction. I would expect some continued volatility and equity prices. The real interest is in 2016, there is a risk or higher inflation for higher inflation. Anna you have breaking news for us, caroline . Caroline we talked about a slew of earnings, the last time we saw two cement makers join forces, the breaking news is the french one is missing its own forecast. On a standalone basis, if you look at the overall earnings they are 4 below its target. On a standalone basis, they would have missed there for your earning target. It was 3 billion3. 2 billion. They say the forecast is not matter because it is due to the merger. In the Second Quarter lafarge took an impairment on its assets to the tune of 250 million euros. The net income is coming in at 182 billion euros million euros. Lafarge missing meanwhile the other coming in line with estimates. They are overall saying they see the Global Economy recovering gradually. Anna lets get back to our conversation about the fed. Good morning, we listened earlier two points about the fed, there seems to be a 5050 chance whether they move in september. How do you assess that . Our forecast aces same, which is the fed will hike in september december. When you look into the latest talks from mrs. Yellen todays statement will add to that. That means they leave the door open for a september rate hike but it does not mean a precommit. I think that is unlikely. You could see the fed going for an earlier hike, but that would mean they are likely to form a lazy rate hike. That is where you come up with a statement on the day of the rate hike and they, we have hiked rates, but we will be transparent. We will be slow in the rate hike. The question is what is priced in at the time. Once a rate hike is delivered you could the a scale back of the u. S. Dollar, not broadbased but selectively against the 10 currencies. Currently you see the headlines coming in that emerging markets are trading at 15 euros lows 15 year lows if the fed hikes Interest Rates, how does that affect the outlook for emerging markets . I think emerging markets are in a difficult situation. You have the capacity of over declining returns in investment and then if they fall below funding costs. You see that in brazil. In brazil, you see that the Fiscal Authority tries to act against that. You have the response of downgrading. Anna coming back to the fed and the data question, as you said you do not think they will precommit the information we got was the weakest in four years. Do you think the situation in china is influenced the u. S. Data . It had been the employment complement which was just pointing disappoint. Disappointing. We have seen a decline in oil prices. They have shed eight thousand jobs in the oil industry. There is another factor when oil prices are declining and people are overly optimistic about how that will affect consumer ending a mean that it states, we are not understanding how that will affect a capex. Those numbers were week weak. A lot of oil Sector Investment has been in the united states, there are as well capex as well. It could come in week two as well. Anna twitter shares rose and then quickly fell on concerns of the companys slowing growth. Caroline is here with the details. Caroline if you look at the numbers, we see Second Quarter results beating estimates. Sales up 61 . The net loss is shrinking. User growth is stalling, up 1 360 million users. Compare that to facebook. Clearly, it is not keeping up with competitors. Jack dorsey is the interim ceo taking me home after the castillo costello. There is no word if jack dorsey will quit. The reality is we can see the share price, how volatile it is, we saw its bike up 11 and shanking back down after 12 hours and we thought down 12 again. Lets have a look at what the future means, what will they do to turn this around . They need to reach a mass market. This is what we are hearing from managing management. The focus is on new products, project lightning is one. It is all about getting realtime viewers. They get new viewers coming into experience a live event. That project at the moment is not bringing in new real user growth. They keep hemorrhaging people, people from the top, we solved two product executive stand on yesterday we saw two product executives stand down yesterday. The issue now is how the can jack dorsey steadied the ship study the ship. Anna thank you very much. A reminder you will have a real slew of Earnings Releases this morning. Here are some of the giants we will keep our eye on. Can the second biggest carmaker in europe make their earnings. We will talk about barclays earnings. The ceo was unceremoniously sacked earlier this month. Hotel, the oil giant, will it protect its dividend . We will see when those numbers are released in around 45 minutes. Coming up, waiting for the chairman to comment as barclays gets set to report. Anna welcome back. Here are the stories you need to know. Twitter reported secondquarter sales. Executives told investors they have a lot of work to do, and they should not expect progress anytime soon. Shares fell 11 in afterhours trading. It is decision day at the u. S. Federal reserve. Policymakers are expected to release a state it statement at 7 00 p. M. U. K. Time. Investors will scrutinize the statements for any hints that policymakers will move in september. Lvmh reported their strongest earnings in three years. The luxury good maker found a pickup in its fashions unit while the drinks unit return to growth. Total reported will report earnings this morning. The commodity is heading for the biggest monthly decline this year. For more on what we can expect from total and the Energy Crisis lets talk to the chief energy strategist. Good morning. A very busy week in the world oil. What have we learned so far . We think total will be a continuation of what we have seen so far. There will be a focus on cost cutting. Bp already lowered the amount of money they will be spinning this year. We have had chevron reporting friday it will try to save 1 billion by firing employees. We also have the Italian Company reporting that 9000 will lose john jobs. I think total will be in that direction, announcing it will be trying to contain costs. Anna containing costs, knows the prize that will be the emphasis. Hans when you look at oil, how is that impacting your universe . Hans we basically stick to our forecast. We pointed out that commodity accounts are the weakest in town. There are Lower Oil Prices and revenues. It is important to look at second and third round affects. We were talking about second round of facts, that is you have lower revenues and you need to bring your Balance Sheet into order. You need to cut your capacity. This is not only an oil story this applies to iron ore and commodity producers. It means when you are losing employment, income, economic momentum, domestic demand, the central bank comes into play and has to cut Interest Rates. I think that is the reason why you should continue to be short. The third effect is the impact of falling revenues on credit. Anna the weakness well documented. Looking at the individual companies, total, you gave us a suggestion of what could be the focus, refining and trading was key in a first three months, is that also key now . Yes. The trading boom of the First Quarter is fading away. The refining is going well total is the largest refiner in europe. It is booming at this point. We are seeing some countries like spain and the u. K. Having the benefit best numbers in to years two years. Analysts are expecting the profitability will be up. Anna thank you very much. Thank you for spending the last 20 minutes with us, hans. Lets move on to big banks. Barclays is set to reported secondquarter earnings in less than one hour. The bank is currently under the leadership of John Mcfarlane, he assumed control after firing Antony Jenkins. Analysts are now saying any comments by the chairman on the strategy will trump earnings. That will be the focus, strategy and perhaps the details of numbers. Lets have a conversation about barclays. Lets bring in julia. What are the challenges that the european banks and barclays are facing . Julia you have seen all of them have to come run with strategy changes and say what are we good at, where are we good at, and what can we cut . That is what mcfarlane said, we have to figure out what we are good at. We are seeing regional businesses unwind, banks are trying to trim down and focus on what they are good on. He said we have done well where i want to come of this proves my strategy is good. He says he likes the shape of the results. Anna what are the european banks doing . Are they specializing . Julia theyre choosing what to specialize in. We have seen them bring in conservative management. Theyre taking out the guys who are fixed income traders running it. You have seen them replaced with conservative figures coming from more of a managerial background. You have seen the Management Change to a conservative management and lets focus on debt trading. Anna specifically on barclays the focus will be on strategy this is a business without a permanent ceo. Julia also, will they talk about a rundown of the noncore assets . Anna thank you very much. A lot to look out for at the top of the hour. Coming up on countdown, we get earnings from peugeot. Can it build on the momentum . We will find out after the break. We have a big focus on carmakers. The chief executive took charge last year, he is seeking to sustain earnings after they posted their first profit in three years. We will get more details on their strategy after the break. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Anna welcome back youre watching countdown to co countdown. Peugeot reporting operating income coming in it 1. 24 billion at 1. 24 billion. They are confirming the midterm forecast and giving details about what is happening in china. They are cutting their china Market Forecast to 3 versus 7 . That is echoing what we have heard from some of the other automakers with regards to exposure to china. It is a developing story, the weakness in the Chinese Market for some of these european carmakers. More on that later. Lets get to the chemicals business, the second order numbers are out. Caroline has those numbers. Caroline this is the German Company in health care and materials. We are seeing sales in the Second Quarter rising significantly. Revenue at top. 9 billion 12. 9 billion. Bayer is also making disposals getting rid of its diabetes unit in particular. Analysts confused as how they will break that out. Earnings at 1. 8 3 billion euros. Many exciting strong numbers from this company, indeed it is. They say earnings are targeted for the high teens percentage of the fullyear. Anna thank you very much. Be sure to stay with bloomberg television, we will be speaking to bayers ceo later on. That is coming up on on the move. It is decision day at the federal reserve, following a tuesday meeting, policymakers are set to release a statement. Economists seeing no chance of a Interest Rate rise at this time they are listening for any hints about rates moving in september. Lvmh saw a pickup in sales in its fashion and leather goods, while the drink unit returned to normal. The ecb approved proposals yesterday for a trade rules to end the full closure. While the central bank is not fully responsible for regulations, policymakers are concerned a reopening could worsen the Liquidity Position of greek lenders. They say trading could resume friday with restrictions by restrictions in money in greek bank accounts. We have had numbers come out from the show joe. Caroline is in paris, hans nichols is in berlin. Caroline, lets get how peugeot has been tearing faring. Concerns around china . Caroline absolutely. They have come a long way since 2013 when remember they were on the verge of bankruptcy. Since then they have signed an agreement in 2014 with a chinese partner. We had a new ceo takeover who has been closing one factory and freezing employees pay good earnings as a result. 1. 40 2 billion euros, well above estimates. In a press release this morning they say one third of this comes from the economy environment and the rest comes from. They are benefiting from a recovery in europe. They are second behind. I can. Volkswagen. One thing to look at is the Iranian Market used to be be secondbiggest market for them. They had to leave the market in 2012 because of sanctions. Now they are looking at coming back. That may be a glimmer of hope for them. They are planning as much as 400,000 vehicles in iran by 2025. Anna what are the challenges . You mentioned the chinese story there is more clarity, isnt there . That china had to lower their forecast for the year. It was 7 now it is 3 . The big concern here is in june, car sales fell for the first time in two years. The second challenge for peugeot is the lack of new models. They spent so much time trying to find a partnership there are not releasing new models before next year. Meanwhile, many competitors are launching plenty of new models. The last challenge for them is the european challenge, they still have production at capacity in europe, they are looking for new partners in order to share the capacity in europe. Anna thank you. Hans nichols in berlin, lets go to you. Vw will report later on today. We have been talking about goals, what are we looking for now . Hans we know how many cars they sold in the first half 5. 0 4 million cars, they are the biggest auto manufacturer. We will be looking for the china story, the brazil story a little bit for the russia story, it physically, bulls where are they on profitability . They want to bring profitability up by 2018, up to north of 6 . The problem is, they are not there. When you look at profitability, they are at 2 . Last quarter they were at 1. 8. That is one of the challenges. Bulls wagon is a massive company, it is fun to look at earnings because they give us an overview of what is happening, not just with the Global Economy as a whole. Remember they have 600,000 workers, 12 brands, and 5 billion 5 million autos sold in the first half of the year. Lets take a look at exposure. You basically see them roughly equal in europe ended asia and in asia. They have had criticism for not having more auto sales in north america, a market has that has shown resilience. The other big question we have on this is how will they be affected by russia and china . We know the russia, who saw sales down, the predictions are for 36 decline from 2015 from. 14, you look at polls wagon they are done down 46 in that market. We will be looking at brazil, china, and the russia story has already played out. The key for their future is what will they do in north america . Where are they on profitability . Then we can plan the next story, clearly, a road trip between you and i heading to iran. I will drive using a beetle. You can use the overland route. Anna will they get the insurance . I have not witnessed your driving. Thank you very much. Sticking with ours, stay with bloomberg, the cfo of

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