Haaretz. Hes an author of a highly regarded book that is now out on paper back and will soon be an hbo documentary. Im pleased to have ari shavit back at the table. You have in your hands what . Ari i have the text that will transform the middle east. I think will shape the next decade and possibly the 21st century. Charlie the 21st century . Ari i think this is the most important, dramatic document ive read in recent years. And probably the most important document, International Document of recent decades. Charlie whitey you say that . Why do you say that . Charlie a nuclear iran is not an israel issue. Thats where i disagree with my Prime Minister. A nuclear iran would be a challenge to our civilization because it will make the middle east nuclear it will destroy the world order, and longterm will endanger europe and america. Charlie let me interrupt you just before you go on is it because iran will threaten the use of a Nuclear Weapon or because Nuclear Proliferation will interrupt in the region . Ari the second. Even if we have a guarantee i dont think the iranians will throw a bomb in tel aviv. I think they are too smart to do that. Just by having a Nuclear Weapon, they will force saudi arabia, egypt, turkey and other gulf countries to have Nuclear Weapons. You will have a multi polar Nuclear System in the worlds most dangerous region. As a result of that you will have potentially nuclear terrier Nuclear Terror and the next 9 11s will not be conventional. We will feel it in 10 or 20 years, not now. Charlie in other words it there are that many Nuclear Weapons with that many parties somebody with enough areas mind will be in control of one . Ari absolutely. The greatest achievement of the International Community in the last 70 years the greatest achievement of america, and im such an admirer of america, i must i am much more proamerican than many of my american friends, is the fact we prevented a postnagasaki disaster. If we brought this nuclear demon into the world and we controlled it in a remarkable way for 70 years. If this deal is right charlie the doctrine of mutually assured destruction worked. Ari right. If there is a mistake, the implication all this discussion about israel and specifics and even about the americaniranian relationship all of this is pennies. The main thing, the main danger that if this goes wrong, the 21st century will be about Nuclear Terror and nuclear war. Charlie when you say that, the president of the United States would argue with you that this is the best way, this document is the best way to prevent iran from having a Nuclear Weapon and there is no alternative. As likely to prevent them as this document. That is his argument. Ari let me say two things. I have deep respect for the president of the United States. I think the values he represents are my values. I am totally with him in what he wants to achieve in the world, unlike some others who oppose him. I am totally with what he represents and what he stands for. Charlie including his policy toward israel . Ari i have no doubt he loves israel and cares and wishes the best and is a very able man, very elegant. I have deep respect for him. The second thing that is important for me to say years as an israeli, when it comes to america, i have gratitude and respect. This decision regarding this deal has to be an american decision and i will not do anything to intervene in this unlike some of my countrymen. I think it is very important, but having said that, we israelis and some arabs live in the middle east. I think it is worthwhile to listen. Perhaps we know something. The challenge is how to take the obama values that i cherish and implement them in a brutal dangerous region that is so politically incorrect . Charlie you are right on target to suggest that is where our focus has to be. Ari i am not saying there is better alternatives. Im not saying the decision was wrong. I want what i think its important to understand the implication that perhaps there is no better alternative. But first of all, lets see what we have, and if i may, there are two achievements and there is a hope. One achievement is the iranians have a declaration, a very strong declaration that they will not pursue Nuclear Weapons. Thats an important declaration. I dont believe them, but its an important declaration. The second achievement which is dramatic is that this agreement diffuses the old Nuclear Program of iran. The sites will be monitored, theres no doubt about it, stockpiles will go down, and the old danger will be suspended. The president hope, which i understand, is that change will come in iran before nuclearization. Doing this, you will unleash the Constructive Forces in iran and we will have a new iran before we have a nuclear iran. Thats on the positive side. The problem is that one this document in an incredible way, guarantees the future Nuclear Program in iran. It does not only stop all the holes, it is affirmatively says iran will be able to produce these sophisticated centrifuges that will make field once ridiculous. So from 2025 on, we will have a vigorous robust, new iranian Nuclear Program. That is number one. Number two, the danger is you will not have enough ability to control what is happening outside of the known sites. The problems with verification and control should the iranians go forward with the operation will be very difficult to monitor. I think they wont do it right away because the deal is so good for them, they are not stupid. Later on, they might try. The third problem i think as dramatic is the lifting of the sanctions is almost irreversible. What is so amazing about this step is you totally crash the sanctions regime while you maintain the foundations of the nuclear infrastructure. I think there should not be symmetry altogether, but the symmetry goes the wrong way. Sanctions are gone, as of today, by the way. On the other hand, the Nuclear Project is at best suspended. It is definitely not crushed. Charlie what you are arguing is an your program not as it has been, but as it might be. Thats a crucial point. Ari do we want to live after 2025 and how to we want our children to live in 2035 . The present will be much rosier than the alternative, but the future is something. Charlie and there is unlikely to be any change in iranian leadership . Ari there could be. Sanctions work in such a remarkable way that there is ability to have more sanctions for a longer time, but it was the only diplomatic option. When you have to strike a deal with the mafia, you have to be very tough and are members its the mafia. Dont pretend its mother teresa. I think there was an opening but i will tell you what i think are the implications. I dont think the iranians will throw a ball met israel or any other country soon. But we will have longterm, in the future we will have a future Nuclear Arms Race. Second, we will have an immediately conventional arms race which is already beginning. Mr. Carter is going to the middle east to deliver arms to everybody. Already, its a much more rangers charlie and first office israel. Ari israel will get its share. Iran is remarkable. My respect for the iranians. I think they are an evil regime but i love the iranian people. I deeply respect the iranian civilization and i hope they get rid of the regime. What the arabians were able to do is remarkable. When they were nearly bankrupt theyve a military Industrial Complex that is one of the best in the world. They are today where the israel was in the 1980s and 1990s. They can manufacture satellites, accurate missiles, drones, you name it. They did it when they were nearly bankrupt. Now, if you are going to inject 10 billion dollars or 30 billion into that, you will have a conventional monster. Hezbollahs budget is about a billion dollars. Now they have the ability to triple or quadruple that. You will have the return of strategic, conventional danger in the middle east like we did not have a long time. Number two, while they were an international pariah, the iranians took over indirectly or directly for eric capitals four capitals. The sense of victory and glamour they will have in the region the danger of them becoming a hegemonic power is imminent. The arab world is sadly so week now, there is an air of chaos. An arab chaos. Its like to unleash a tiger on steroids that will be able to walk around. That is dramatic. The fourth point, and that is the last one, is the fact that there was no demand for conversion. I am a positive person. I believe in change and im willing to take leaps of faith. But when you deal with a convict, you want to see conversion before he goes out. The fact that the deal itself leave aside israel, the deal does not respect america. There is honor to iran here on every page. Theres more respect than there is to american congress. How do you think if you do not have any signs the Supreme Leader goes to talk about the legitimacy of death to america. You want conversion, if you want peace, you need to be respected and honored. Some marriages go bad. But if the evening before the wedding, one of the partners says about the other one that his death is legitimate, where would the wedding go . What can you expect of the future . There are achievements here. Theres definitely goodwill here, but the dangers are serious and these 60 days are 60 days of reckoning. Its a great opportunity for your great democracy to discuss it and take about what the implications are. Charlie if in fact you have studied it as you have and if in fact you know the middle east as well as you do, your editorial positions should be please american congress, stop this deal. Ari we are at the crossroads. All options are there. It is not the end, it is the beginning. It is a new beginning and all options of stopping the deal will have i am an israeli. I have no right to ask american senators and congressmen to take that decision. Charlie but you are public intellectual and you have the right to say i have looked at the deal and this is what i think are the concert and as of this deal, and they are bad. You are saying the consequences of this deal are bad. Ari what i say is within americanisraeli relations our role is to be respectful, and i hope people in washington and elsewhere throughout the world would listen to us, listen to israelis who have been thinking about it. It is only an american decision because either way the prices can be very high. This is an american decision and it must be taken by americans. I will not say anything about your political system and whats happening. I hear its a wonderful system. Charlie sometimes, sometimes not. At the same time, you have to argue and you say this is the most interesting thing you have read in a long time. Because it is what for you . Ari first of all, it is really and. It is a brilliant document. With dramatic consequences. What is striking about is if you come from mars and you read this document come you think iran is one of the leading seven rate powers the world. The iranians have managed third their diplomatic brilliance is unmatched. Have managed to turn the process around in a way that its like a totally legitimate discussion between the seven or eight hours and them. As i said, they are more respected in this document. Theres no sense of guilt of we have done something wrong or we are changing our ways. Charlie you know who help make iran in the conception of the world a power was israel. Prime minister netanyahu his primary worry is iran, not the palestinians or his neighbors, it is iran. That has been the force of his rhetoric over the last four or five years correct . Ari i am much more free to discuss my Prime Minister than your president. Mr. Netanyahu deserves the credit that he is worth listening to and his historical analysis is a good one. He made every mistake in the book. By making it an israel issue, by being not friendly enough to the american resident by not paying in palestinian currency. Head israel gone for a peace initiative, clearly a peace loving and peace searching country, if we would have had a much better relationship with the president , everything would have been different. Mr. Netanyahu likes to compare himself with winston churchill. Winston churchill knew that you could not win the fight without winning the heart of Franklin Delano roosevelt. He is worth listening to and his analysis is sadly pretty accurate, but he made many mistakes. Everybody makes mistakes. The old stories over the last decade, many mistakes were made and now its time to have a much more intelligent and serious conversation. Charlie i want to come to him and a moment but the interesting thing is the president will and does argue, it is his argument that is the principal argument, which is the reflection of the opinion of his administration he will argue that mr. Netanyahu , at the time of the framework deal came to the United Nations and came to america and said this is terrible and these are the things that are going to happen, and none of them happened. Thats the argument. The Prime Minister made all of these arguments and they didnt come true. Therefore we shouldnt listen to the Prime Minister as if he has superhuman wisdom. Ari we should listen to everybody. I think some combined thinking and insights is what is called for. But let me talk about where mr. Netanyahu and president obama succeed. The policy led by president obama in 2011 and 2012 with harsh sanctions and harsh rhetoric, making it very clear to the irani and that he is tough, that changed iran and brought them to the table. If there is still an option perhaps it is too late, to go back to that kind of attitude of diplomacy led by a person who represents the best of america and the free world but saying to the people out there who have different ideas and different psyche and a different approach to life, that we will not have it, that we will not let them take over the middle east and endanger world stability. Charlie this is the best possible deal in best possible way and that there is no alternative as good as this is what the president would say. That is his argument. His argument is this will stop iran from getting a Nuclear Weapon and you agree with that over the next 10 years. Lets assume where we are now. With the passion you have, the intelligence you have, any experience you have and the amount of energy you have applied to this, what is the alternative in your judgment . Ari i think the first thing is not revolutions. To understand where we are in this junction both options are very problematic and we will pay the price for them. I think if there is any sort of options to have this return of a certain diplomatic roach while accepting it or after rejecting it, that is the only way to make sure what we dont have here is done out of this document, that the demand for and iranian conversion, the demand we will see a new kind before iran unleashes its new power into the unstable middle east, that is crucial because the alternative is, as i said, Longterm Nuclear danger. We might have in the short to medium term, conventional if we got from it make a mistake. Charlie in terms of where it is or in terms of syria . Ari i think there is a danger of iran taking over larger parts of the middle east. And the danger of iran having through its proxies such capabilities that will in danger israel and saudi arabia and others. The main danger is not immediately clear warfare but the reactivation of the conventional warfare. We have enough bloody revolutions and civil wars. If now the iranians be much stronger conventionally and politically. Israel will arm itself. These are the ingredients of a strategic mess. We might have this strategic hell later on with nuclear capabilities, but right now, the mess we have seen in the last three or four years, this will not waiver us. This will make the middle east much more chaotic and the world more dangerous. Charlie why do you think the saudi and emirates are not saying this as vehemently as you are . Ari if im not mistaken, after Henry Kissinger wrote his memoirs, he said politics in the middle east is the most sophisticated than any other region he has seen. The middle east knows, many people in the middle east know how to say a, want the and do see. We israelis sent to have the exact opposite we are to direct, we are too loud, we say what we think, sometimes in a very blunt way. I know this for a fact all the arab leaders with the exception of qatar are terrified. But as they see iran as a potential winner and the rising power, they want to hedge. Charlie they want to hedge with respect to iran . Ari i have no doubt. Some of the statements you see that make people feel better should actually make people more worried cousin worried because the fundamental danger is you have iran because it is such an able nation, if it becomes the Regional Power before it becomes the benign iran we all wish for, that is the major danger. You see signs here of this process where people are afraid of it and they are thinking perhaps this is the new ruler of the region and that endangers americas position in the region and obviously endangers the arab moderates. Charlie where are we in syria and where will we be because the iranians will have 100 early in dollars, of which some of which will clearly go to hezbollah . Ari this will enable the iranians to support president assad. Charlie will it therefore be much less likely to find a transition or negotiated agreement even though it was said the russians were maybe moving to that kind of stance . Ari he is in big trouble and he is very weak, but he read this agreement as a great hope. Perhaps it is not good enough. Perhaps he is too weak and cannot survive. But this will definitely enable the iranians to support him in a big way. Charlie they have money. Ari they have money, they have weapons iranian markets and iranian rockets and missiles have become so precise and sophisticated they will now have the ability to fill