Now on Bbc News newscast. Today were going to talk about a lot about the Middle East. And we talked about it a little bit yesterday. But obviously its one huge big dominant News Story this weekend, notjust because its the anniversary of the terrible October The 7th attacks, but also because overnight lots of things have been hotting up still further with more strikes on the lebanese capital, beirut. Yes. Said to be the largest so far. So well get to that. And also ask, when this politics comes home, how will it influence this government, all on this Sunday Episode of newscast. Newscast. Newscast from the bbc. Hello, its laura in the studio. And paddy in the studio. And nick in the studio. Thank heavens youre here because theres this giant Middle East crisis, and its clearly going to have a big defining impact on this new labour government. Well, indeed. And it already has, because, as laura was saying on her show this morning, you know, you can directly say that labour lost five constituencies and keir Starmers Majority were slashed by candidates standing on a pro palestinian pro gaza ticket. So in camden, in his own constituency. Yeah. So they absolutely know the impact of it. Before we get into that, which is fascinating. And the Prime Minister himself has been warning publicly in the papers this morning about the risk of tensions building here at Home Willjust bring people up to date with whats actually happened overnight. So israel carried out several strikes on the southern suburbs of beirut. Our correspondent there said its the worst night of attacks so far. There was a huge fireball. We showed some of the extraordinary images on the programme this morning over the skyline of beirut. And the israeli military had warned people in the southern suburbs to get out, which is, you know, its something they do. They tell people, you know, its essentially an attack is coming. But that attack seems to have been very serious. The idf, the israeli Defence Force says 30 rockets fired by hezbollah, seen as our government by a Terror Group, fell in northern israel. But Benjamin Netanyahu, the israeli Prime Minister, said no country in the world would accept an attack on its cities and citizens. Israel will not accept it either. Israel has the duty and the right to defend itself and respond to these attacks, and it will do so. So were in this moment of holding our breath, wondering what israel is going to do in retaliation to iran. And then how iran will then respond to the retaliation. And on our program, we heard from the head of the un refugee agency. Hes called filippo grandi. Hes actually in beirut. He says it is an unfolding catastrophe for civilians, and many of them are now, many lebanese are now sleeping on the street in beirut, which is being shelled. And correspondents from the bbc have said that the strikes on beirut Last Night were the heaviest yet. So thats the situation on which youre dealing with your guests. On bbc one and ours, we had the former head of the navy, alan west, on saying, youve got to act to prescribe the iranian revolutionary guards. Now, if i can start with the Nick Element and you, what is the the challenge for the Prime Minister . Hes not really influential in the in the Middle East except by being on the security council, the uk being on the security council. Is he . Imean, lets not overplay the role of the uk. In a sense the influential players are the blocs. So its the United States, its the gulf arab states. And to a certain extent its the european union. So the uk on its own is not a player, but it has huge implications for Keir Starmer in this country in terms of, as laura was saying, those five constituencies where Labour Lost Mps as a direct result of people standing on a pro palestinian ticket. But also the big challenge for Keir Starmer is that if the conflict between Israel And Iran escalates, then what role does the Uk Play . And on your show, laura, you had Peter Kyle, whos the digital secretary who doesnt have a direct role in this, but hes very, very close to Keir Starmer. So he will know his thinking. Peter kyle was being incredibly diplomatic. But i think youll find that the Uk Position is this, though they cant quite spell it out, when israel is attacked by iran, as it was the other day and as it was in april, the uk will help israel defend itself. Shoot down missiles. Yeah. Or provide Intelligence And Reconnaissance to do so because of our capabilities in cyprus, which is so close. If the conflict between Israel And Iran moves to the next level, and the next level is that israel attacks irans Oil Capability or attempts to attack irans nuclear capability, then i think you would probably find at that point, the uk would not be involved. And i think thats very much what he was trying to give the impression of this morning, even though as a Cabinet Minister he was not that surprisingly, going to go into the details of any operational decisions. But really it is a question of principle, isnt it . Its one thing to help israel with defence when people are coming after them. Its another thing to help them carry out an attack and potentially an attack with very far reaching consequences. And this was how Peter Kyle tried to walk that line. When we asked him directly this morning if the Uk Military could ever, in any way, in any way at all, be involved in an attack on iran. Now, the uk has helped israel on some of the occasions when it has defended itself from iranian missiles. But would you rule out the Uk Military being involved in any way in any attacks on iran . These are operational decisions that must be taken. No, no, no. These are a question of principle. These are operational decisions that will be taken by the Defence Secretary and the Prime Minister, and also the foreign secretary. These are delicate negotiations, delicate situations. Britain will do what it needs to do to support our allies in a time of need. But it is very clear from what we have said publicly that britain will use all of its influence, all of the tools we have at our disposal to move towards a swift diplomatic solution based on a ceasefire as quickly as possible. Now were working very closely with our international allies. Speaking to people about this over the last few days, about what the uk could do. And youre absolutely right, nick. Say the uks role is limited given the size of the country and our diplomatic power. But there are specific things that the uk can do that other countries cannot. So for example, on a practical basis, the uk still has an embassy in tehran. America cut off diplomatic relationships with tehran ages ago. So theoretically it was suggested to me, somebody who used to do this kind ofjob, a Uk Sort of emissary, could go and speak to the iranians in a way that its impossible for the United States to do, because. Theyre on the ground. Because theyre on the ground. And heres another example. They said to me that the qataris were The Ones who were negotiating to try to get the israeli hostages out with hamas. And the qatari Chief Negotiator was in london when the israeli hostage families were also in london, and the uk was able to get them to meet. And that was not a meeting that would have been possible anywhere else. So yes, the uks role is limited, for sure, but there are specific little sort of points of purchase. Yeah, there are specific, often practical points where the uks own diplomatic sort of patchwork, if you like, allows us to play roles that could actually be very significant and to make things happen. And david lammy, for example, has been speaking to the iranian Foreign Minister from time to time, which is not a conversation that the american secretary of state, antony blinken, would be able to have in the same way. So there is, you know, theres just these little nooks and crannies where the uk actually can be really significant. Quietly, we have that footprint. I remember when Tony Blair went to the United States in the wake of 9 11, and i think it was on that flight to the United States that he had a Phone Call with the president of iran, which was seen as a hugely significant breakthrough. And thenJack Straw, who was the foreign secretary, actually went to tehran. So youre absolutely right. There is that sort of footprint. I mean, Jack Straw is being talked about as somebody who if we wanted to sort of step up our dialogue with iran, he would be the guy. Oh, somebody mentioned Cathy Ashton to me as well, who was the former, i cant remember what her fancy. Well, she was the foreign Policy Supremo for the european union, and she was directly involved in the negotiations over the iranian nuclear program, because the eu is a partner in that. And she was the interlocutor. So Cathy Ashton, very significant. But also it looks a lot from the commentary and all the sundays, as though the israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has in many ways become detached from the international pressure that used to be able to influence his actions because of four weeks to go to the us president ial election, because of the fact that hes banned the Secretary General of the united nations from visiting israel. Hes persona non grata. The situation is very unstable. Before we got to this weekend, because, say, the commentators ive been reading today, hes emboldened to act on his own without calling up president biden, whom hes been ignoring for months. Hes been ignoring for ages. And we spoke to the israeli ambassador to the uk this morning. And it is just remarkable how whatever you think of this, and some people will think that this is admirable that this is terrible, but there is no question that that government right now is absolutely in a place where they say, we will only stop this when we have taken out these Terror Groups, as described by many governments. She was crystal clear about this, that this ends when Israel Ends Hamas and hezbollah. And then, on the other hand, we spoke to somebody from iran. Very unusual. We were pleased to speak to the former Vice President of iran this morning. And she essentially pretty much justified what iran did to israel on October The 7th. Her position was also completely entrenched. And theres a very important difference between those two countries. We were talking about it yesterday. Israel is a democracy. Iran is not a democracy. They lock up political prisoners. Many people in iran, as we talked about yesterday, are deeply unhappy with what the regime has done. But it was so striking how, in different ways, both of those countries we saw this morning are incredibly entrenched. But its interesting when we said we talk about the impact of the uk. I was interested this morning when Keir Starmer wrote this piece, saying hes worried about the effect on the communities here and how different communities react and process whats happening in the Middle East. Well, deep concerns of a rise in anti semitism, deep concerns of a rise in islamophobia. Very, very deep concerns about what might happen around about the first anniversary of those terrible attacks on the 7th october. So, yes, they are concerned. But on Benjamin Netanyahu, i think its important to say that the israeli Prime Minister for the last 30 years has been saying that Israels Number one adversary is iran because of what they say are the iranian proxies, which are hezbollah to the north, and they would say hamas to the south. And he says that there is going to come a point, he would say, where israel has to seriously confront the iranian regime and all the language from Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days is that we might be reaching that moment now. And there is a very, very strong school of thought in israel thats saying that says that now is the moment because hezbollah has been weakened. But interestingly, laura, on your show, malcolm rifkind, the former foreign secretary, says that israel would not be able to step up the attacks to that next level without the say so of the United States because they would need very, very serious weapons supplied by the United States to do that. And interestingly, its the two things. Do they go after the iranian Oil Fields or do they go after the nuclear facilities . Joe biden in the week said attacking Oil Facilities is under discussion. Nuclear out of the picture. So it may well be that the United States would give the green light to attacks on iranian Oil Fields. Even talking in that way meant that global Oil Prices rose at once and a strike on iranian Oil Fields would put Oil Prices up all around the world, including in the United States, with weeks to go, including here in the uk. And so these steps, the next steps by israel, the response by iran is whats grouping all the international leaders this weekend. Tomorrow is the anniversary. The question comes does one of the actors take a strike on the 7th itself to make a point about the anniversary . And im afraid to have to tell newscasters that that is the commentary that im reading, that we expect an escalation. That is the point about what were trying to brief on this newscast. People are not saying its de escalation because of the weakened united nations, because of the weakened United States. Those were the players that used to be able to influence the situation. It looks unstable all the more because of that sort of vacuum. Thats right. And also the israeli leader has said in terms on the record that we will pay a heavy price. Iran will pay a heavy price. A heavy price. Iran will pay a heavy price. And its one of the things, actually, that i think has been notable in this conflict throughout is the absolute megaphone. Im not going to say Megaphone Diplomacy, because its not been Megaphone Diplomacy at all. Its been Megaphone Threats on all sides. Its been very, very public. The sort of idea that there would be element of surprise in terms of a war. You know, its been very public. We will do this, we will do that. And that doesnt always happen. No. Thats right. And Benjamin Netanyahu. Kind of curious. In a way. Dont forget his brother lost his life in the entebbe raid. His father was a historian ofjewish history. Benjamin Netanyahus View is that you dont win through a defensive posture. So israel has had success with its Iron Dome defensive system of protecting Tel Aviv when its under attack from hezbollah. Theyve had success in protecting Israel Iran has been launching nuclear. Sorry. Let me say that again. Theyve had success when iran has launched ballistic missiles at israel. But the Netanyahu View is that thats a defensive posture which is not sustainable. The only way you succeed is going on an offensive posture against the iranian regime. That is the Netanyahu View. And although six months ago and through much of this year, hes been incredibly unpopular, actually, in recent weeks, that Oil Tanker seems to have been turning. So the political incentive for him may not be there right now to listen to allies saying, please be calm, please restrain yourselves. Please do something which actually western allies would accept and understand, which might be limited. Targeting of iranian m