but is that now unravelling, and how much damage could it do to the global economy? amid growing hostilities, politicians, they've been putting up more barriers to trade, in particular when it comes to the technology of the future. in may, the us slapped a range of new tariffs or import taxes on china, hitting products including electric vehicles, their batteries and solar panels. and the european union, it's announced new tariffs of up to 38% on chinese electric cars, which are set to come into force onjuly 4th. now, if talks fail to solve the differences, china, it's reportedly looking at tariffs on europe's farmers, including the pork industry, as well as french cognac and luxury cars. so, why is all of this happening? well, the world's two biggest economies want control of the technology of the future, and in the west, at least, politicians want to protect jobs in the hopes of winning votes. china heavily subsidised all of these products, pushing chinese companies to produce far more than the rest of the world can absorb and then dumping the excess products onto the market at unfairly low prices, driving other manufacturers around the world out of business. bottom line — i want fair competition with china and not conflict. we welcome imports, we welcome competition. but this competition must be fair. i would reject this notion that this is protectionism, because what we are doing is fully in line with applicable eu and wto rules. china disputes that, and when it comes to the us and china, the world's two biggest economies, lurking in the background are the widespread tariffs that they put on each other�*s exports when donald trump was president, and they've been kept in place by presidentjoe biden. china's rejected us allegations of dumping and says it wants fair competition on electric vehicles. translation: we should keep an open mind, work closely - together, reject bloc confrontation, oppose decoupling and disconnection, maintain the stability and smoothness of industrial and supply chains, and promote trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation. we should lead and promote the healthy development of the world and bring together the powerful synergy of world economic growth. meanwhile, china has been growing its trade links with russia as a result of the economic pressure that russia has faced from the west since its invasion of ukraine, and many countries are now siding with them or the west. meanwhile, companies such as ikea, nike and apple are rethinking where they make their stuff. the ukraine invasion pushed up inflation and energy prices everywhere. the world trade organization, the wto, says that helped the volume of global trade fall 1.2% last year, only the third fall in 30 years, and the international monetary fund, the imf, it's warning that if the world splits into two trading blocs, it could cost the world economy nearly $7.5 trillion in the long term. what we've seen in the last few years, i would say, especially when it comes to global trade relations, is nothing like we've seen since the end of the cold war. the last few years, you've had numerous shocks, including the pandemic, you had russia's invasion of ukraine, and following these events, increasingly, countries around the world are guided by economic security and national security concerns in determining who they trade with and who they invest in. so, what impact is all of this having on the companies on the front line of these differences? ever since china opened its doors to foreign trade at the end of the 19705, thousands of american and european companies have become reliant on it for manufacturing and also, increasingly, as a place to sell their stuff. so i decided to catch up with the president of the european union chamber of commerce in china. jens eskelund, great to have you on the show, and, jens, let me start with this, because you've just released your annual confidence survey of your members and, boy, i mean, it doesn't make for pretty reading if you're a foreign company operating in china. jens, just explain what you found. you're absolutely right, aaron. it's the lowest reading, actually, we have on record in terms of confidence in the chinese market. what has happened, what really stands out relative to last year, is that companies are increasingly concerned about the state of the domestic economy. interestingly, the top three concerns are exactly the same as last year. it's the chinese economy, it's the global economy, and it's the state of us—china relations. but this year, concerns about the chinese domestic economy really pulled away. people simply don't see the kind of demand that they had expected to find post—covid. and that is dragging down a sentiment. butjens, on the flip side, how important are foreign companies like your members for china's economy? because if you look inside china, you've got problems with, well, youth unemployment, you've got the property crisis, huge debt levels. it does beg the question, just how much does china need that investment from abroad to keep its economy growing? i think where we are right now is in a situation where because the situation is so relatively complex, dire even in some localities, that everything that generates economic activity is basically welcome. and foreign investment, typically, has been providing high quality, attractive jobs and generated alsojobs further down value chains. jens, let's talk about the automotive industry, a big part of your membership. i mean, names such as bmw, volkswagen, jaguar land rover. how concerned are you that the eu is putting these tariffs in place on electric vehicles made in china? i think the introduction of tariffs is a symptom that something is out of balance, and we do think that trade in certain aspects is out of balance and that we need to find an equilibrium that both europe and china can live with. i think it's mind—boggling, if we go back to 2017, in container terms, which is manufactured goods, that we actually see chinese imports from europe declining by about a third, but the chinese economy actually has grown 35—40%. something doesn'tjive, and i think what we begin to see now, some of these industrial policy initiatives, the import substitution, beginning to have an effect on trade balances and the overall trade relationship, and i think a concrete manifestation of that is the investigation and now sort of the prospect of tariffs being introduced. can a solution be found? we think so, we hope so. now it's a matter that both sides realise the seriousness of the situation and sit down and try to work out their differences. i'm also wondering, jens, what are the other challenges that make it tough for european and other foreign companies to operate in china? i think there are a number, and it depends very much on the type of industry you are you're looking at. for some, it will be lack of market access. in other cases, it's access to public procurement and security regulation. i think it's fair to say that europe still remain a significantly more open market to chinese companies than the other way around, and that is obviously something that needs to change. jens eskelund, president of the european union chamber of commerce in china, always great to have you on the show. thanks forjoining me again. thank you very much, aaron, and, really, i can't believe this is your last show. i mean, i've been following you for the past 20 years, so all the best in your future endeavours and see you somewhere around the world. oh, jens, thank you so much! much appreciated, my friend. all the best. well, no country exports more goods than china, so the stuff made there is hugely important to the global shipping industry, which moves about 90% of all the world's trade. but tariffs are just one problem it's facing as it tries to do its bit to keep the global economy moving. so i've been speaking to the big boss of one of the biggest shipping companies out there, germany's hapag—lloyd. rolf habbenjansen, a pleasure having you on the show. and, rolf, let me start with this, i mean, we're halfway through 2024, and, well, let's be frank, it hasn't been an easy year forshipping, right? we've got politicians throwing tariffs around, we've had not enough water in the panama canal, we've got the ongoing disruption in the red sea and congestion in many ports, especially in the mediterranean. i've got to ask you, rolf, how are you getting through all of this? i think we're getting through all of this fairly well. i think the panama canal, that situation has actually improved somewhat. on the red sea, that's been definitely the main issue throughout 2024, and i think we can be happy that we all invested quite a lot in ships over the last couple of years, because that at least has allowed us to keep those supply chains flowing. and, yes, there is also some congestion here and there, a little bit worse probably than we would have hoped for, but right now definitely adding a little bit to the challenges that we face on a day—to—day basis. people tried to move stuff now before those tariffs kicked in. if you look longer term, people move production around it it's not new that production from china's other places in southeast asia. in recent times, we have seen more activity in places like mexico and india. it is enclosed changing locally, the flows are still there. rolf, let's talk more about the red sea situation. we've got those ongoing attacks on commercial shipping. you've been avoiding the area all year. there's no sign that this all—important, crucialshipping route for the global economy is going to fully reopen any time soon. i've got to ask you, just how damaging is that for you as a company? i think, above all, it's damaging for global trade, because it certainly adds a week to sometimes two weeks to global supply chains. luckily, all of us have invested quite a lot in new ships over the last years, and that means that today we are able to sail around the cape of good hope and keep those supply chains flowing. i think that's the positive side of it, but, of course, in the long run that's not a good situation, and that's why we also hope that at least, let's say, until the end of the year, that situation goes back to normal. and of course, rolf, one of the big impacts of companies like yours avoiding the red sea is that there are significant and growing congestions at ports, both in the mediterranean, across asia, dubai, singapore and shanghai, for example. can you just explain, to the uninitiated, what's happening and what it means for... ..well, for the ability to move goods around the world? we have seen that shipping routes had to be changed, which puts a lot of pressure on some ports, that now get a lot more cargo than they typically got in the past. for example, when you look at all the ports in the west med, they get a lot more cargo from ships that sail around the cape of good hope, and it needs to be transhipped then there to the east med. so that's one factor. the other factor is that we see a very strong, very strong demand across the globe, particularly from the us, but also from europe, and that means that we need to move significantly more boxes this year than we did last year. and if you, of course, take those two things together, then you get to a situation like we see it today. i'm just wondering, how much have the longer routes and the congestion added to your costs, and does it mean that the consumer willjust end up paying more in the shops? if we look at what our rates have done compared to, let's say six months ago, then we see on average that the rates that we charge are up 30—a0%. that is simply because there is less space available on some of the key routes, and then of course, with very strong demand, we see rates going up. and as we sail around africa, we also have to sail faster, and that means that we burn a lot more fuel. butjust briefly, does that mean that these extra costs, do you think, just ended up getting passed on to the consumer? yes, these extra costs in the end get passed on, whereby it's always difficult to make that distinction between what is passing on cost and what is simply the market. and, yes, schedule reliability is lower than one would expect, but it's also not a disaster at this point in time. so, no, i don't see a risk that we will not have enough stuff in the shops for christmas. rolf habbenjansen, the big boss of hapag—lloyd, great to have you on the show, really appreciate your time. thank you very much. if we look at the amount of cargo the moved it's significantly up compared to what is the last year and reliability is lowered expect but it's also not a disaster at this point in time. quite a lot of people have ordered early and no, i do not see a risk that we would not have enough stuff in the shops for christmas. rolf habbenjansen, the big boss of hapag—lloyd, great to have you on the show, really appreciate your time. thank you very much. so, more tariffs and trade barriers, more disruption to global shipping. so, what does it all mean for the health of the global economy, and what can politicians do about it? for my final interview, i've been catching up with the big boss, the head of the wto, the world trade organization, whose role is to solve differences on trade through talking. ngozi okonjo—iweala, my dear friend, always a pleasure having you on the show, and, ngozi, let's start with this. global trade, let's be frank, it's not having a great time. last year, it fell for just the third time in the 30 years that the wto was created. we have a huge disruption because of attacks on ships in the red sea, we've got the big powers, the eu, the us and china, imposing tariffs on each other. i've got to ask you, ngozi, how in the world do you tackle all of these challenges? yes, you're absolutely right. trade is not having the best of times at the moment. we are seeing, yes, increasing protectionism and some undermining of wt0 rules, and some of this is leading to fragmentation. global trade is really part of the lifeblood for making countries resilient and also for underpinning growth, so we are concerned about that, and now we are seeing that trade between like—minded blocs is growing faster than trade across such blocs, which is some indication of what is happening with fragmentation. and, of course, it will be costly for the world, so this is not something we would like to see. on the other hand, aaron, i do want to say that, in spite of all these problems, trade has also shown remarkable resilience. we are seeing a rebound in 2024 of 2.6%, and we are projecting 3.3% next year. so there is some resilience. with all the money, such as subsidies and tax breaks, that governments from the us, the eu and china, they're pouring all of this money into green technology. again, i'm kind of wondering, do you think the rules of global trade need an update to make that competition fairer? absolutely, aaron, you've hit on a very important point. first of all, we are very much supportive of getting to net zero by 2050 at the wto. there is nothing in our rules that discourages countries from doing this, or members from doing it, and we support it. i think it's a question of how. if you subsidise research, for instance, that is, uh...that�*s very good. what we want to avoid is a subsidy race to the bottom. now, you asked about our rules. now, you asked about our rules. i strongly believe, yes, i strongly believe, yes, that some of our rules, that some of our rules, we do need to look at them. we do need to look at them. we are facing an existential we are facing an existential threat with climate change, threat with climate change, and we should fight it in every and we should fight it in every way we can, and it can be done way we can, and it can be done without undermining rules. without undermining rules. and, ngozi, our good friend and, ngozi, our good friend gita gopinath from the imf, the international monetary fund, she recently described global trade tensions as, and i'm quoting here, "nothing like we've seen since the end of the cold war." gita gopinath from the imf, would you agree? because, ngozi, what we seem to be looking at, at the moment, is we have these nations that... well, some that support the us and the eu, others supporting china and russia. i'm kind of wondering — what are your worries if the global economy continues down this path of fragmentation? that could not be, they can be detrimental to consumers and we have seen this before in the 19305 have seen this before in the 1930s with retaliatory tariffs and everyone lost and i do hope we will not enter that kind of era again. and, ngozi, our good friend gita gopinath from the imf, the international monetary fund, she recently described global trade tensions as, global trade tensions as, and i'm quoting here, and i'm quoting here, "nothing like we've seen "nothing like we've seen since the end of the cold war." since the end of the cold war." would you agree? would you agree? because, ngozi, what we because, ngozi, what we seem to be looking at, seem to be looking at, at the moment, is we have at the moment, is we have these nations that... these nations that... well, some that support well, some that support the us and the eu, others the us and the eu, others supporting china and russia. supporting china and russia. i'm kind of wondering — i'm kind of wondering — what are your worries what are your worries if the global economy continues down this path if the global economy continues down this path of fragmentation? of fragmentation? yes, i would say absolutely, aaron, we are worried about global trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. we think that sometimes trade is unfairly blamed for certain ills in the economy that it's not responsible for, and it's also used sometimes as an instrument to solve problems that it's ill—suited to solve. there are lots of elections going on all around the world in major countries, and so to some extent, the political season lends itself to this kind of tension, and we're keeping ourfingers crossed that we'll go through this year, 2024, of elections as quickly as possible. and, ngozi, let me end on this. as you know, this is my last show at the bbc, and i have interviewed you, with pleasure, many, many times, but you now have less than a year of your four—year term to go, so i've got to ask you, ngozi, are you going to run for a second term? or do you want to join me and just go into semi—retirement? aaron, i love that! actually, i was given an unusual term, so i have slightly a few more months than a year to go. nevertheless, you're right that there's beginning talk about the next term, and i'm reflecting on it, i'm not there yet, so keep tuned in, in the next few weeks and months. i will do that, and on that point, ngozi okonjo—iweala, the big boss of the world trade organization, i say to you, my friend, always a pleasure. i'm sure our paths will continue to cross. thanks forjoining me. aaron, before you go, i want to say that you're one of the most lively, engaging and fairand intelligent interviewers i've had the chance to be interviewed with, and i want to wish you the very best. don't say goodbye, i hope we still see you on the scene, and i look forward to more interaction, perhaps in another... in another guise. indeed, i'm blowing you a kiss now, ngozi! goodbye and i'll see you soon. bye! well, that's it for this week's show, i hope you enjoyed it, and as i mentioned at the top of the programme, my very last show for the bbc. yeah, after 30 years in tv news and, well, more than 22 of those years right here, it's just time to close this chapter. it's been a mostly fun heck of a ride, when i started here at the bbc in early 2002, going from... well, going from this... hello, everybody, i'm aaron heslehurst, welcome to the world business report. thankfully, they are still in positive territory! well, welcome to the programme, certainly lots going on in this business edition. people don't buy a box of apples. they buy a box of mangoes. well, they're...they're great! but i tell you what, if you like a little crazy golf, it's on board! oldest toy shop in the world, it is hamleys right here. oh, it's busy! we are live across the globe, and guess what — it is time for the money news that matters. to a modern boeing cockpit today, heaving with the latest technology to make sure we're all transported safely to all corners of the world. now, how do i get out of this thing? that's. .. that's sri lanka! oh, my goodness, what a start to the programme! you ok?! i'm not too sure what to say — what keeps you awake at night? now go away, leave me alone, i've got to get some rest. i have a big day tomorrow! sh! yeah, going from that young boy to presenting all of our business shows across the network, i've had the immense privilege of getting to interview thousands of... well, some of the world's biggest corporate leaders and heads of industries across all sectors across the planet. it's also, of course, been an incredible privilege to have been able to work alongside some of the most skilled and talented producers and colleagues right here at the bbc, and i thank them all from the bottom of my heart. to you, well, it's been an absolute delight having you alljoin me on this journey, and i do hope i accomplished what i set out to do, and that was to always deliver the business news in an accessible and informative manner, with a little bit of fun and entertainment thrown into the mix. so again, thank you for watching. thanks for putting up with me! and as i like to say at the end of my interviews, all the very best, my friend. i hope to see you soon. bye— bye. hello. thanks forjoining me. let's see what the weather's got in store for the rest of the weekend. and here's the headline — for most of us, it's not looking too bad. some sunshine, but at times it will be cloudy. could be a few showers as well. now, recently there was a weather front across northern wales and northern england. it brought some damp weather on saturday. that should be mostly out of the way come sunday, as this ridge of high pressure tries to build across the uk. remnants of that weather front still visible in the morning across east anglia and the southeast, all the way to southwestern parts of england. so quite cloudy with some spits and spots of rain for a time. 16 in london. north of that, i think sunshine to greet us in the morning. through the morning into the afternoon those cumulus clouds will be developing and then eventually spreading. so i think it is going to be quite a cloudy afternoon for many of us during sunday. some showers as well possible almost anywhere. your best bet for sunny skies is actually around coastal areas, almost anywhere, especially looking out to sea — blue skies. temperatures 20 in london, high teens further north. nothing spectacular, and actually similar temperatures and weather for the football in germany. ok, on to the forecast now for monday. another weather front approaches from the west. this is going to bring thick cloud and some outbreaks of rain initially to northern ireland, to scotland, the irish sea and then eventually that weather front will move eastwards across the country. so i think most of us are in at least for a little bit of rain. a short spell of rain on monday, but come the afternoon, skies all brighten across western areas of the uk, so there will be some clearer skies towards the end of monday. it may take time for that weather front to clear the east coast. and then the azores high still here on tuesday and indeed wednesday but we're just on the edge of that high pressure and often on the edge of high pressures there's a lot of cloud, good chance of catching a shower, and that's pretty much what we've got on tuesday. i think your best bet for the dry, sunny weather will be further southwest on tuesday, for example in plymouth and in cardiff, whereas in the north west of england — a chance of a few showers. so here's the week at a glance. if you want really warm weather, it's not so great because temperatures are below the average. if you like cloudy, changeable, cool weather, well, it's perfect for you. bye— bye. live from washington, this is bbc news. president biden holds a series of election campaign fundraisers as he seeks to put the lacklustre debate performance behind him. the uk labour leader urges voters to give his party a clear mandate for change on the final weekend of the campaign. and iran will hold a run—off vote after the country's lowest turnout in decades. president biden is ramping up his campaign efforts this weekend after a faltering performance in a televised debate against donald trump fuelled concern about his candidacy.

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